JGMcD2

I was being sarcastic. It’s a joke from a bad take from another thread. I was advocating for Trubisky as the Bills backup back in October/November. Before he came back in to start and managed to make himself $10-$12M a year.

The only way Trubisky can be our backup QB is if he’s capable of winning 4/5 games as a backup? If you can’t do that, then you throw out that idea and move on to your next option.

Right, and we can make a legitimate argument we were the 2nd best team in the playoff this year. It just so happens we ran into the first best team and there’s a clear gap between the two. Is mortgaging the future to have a better chance of beating the best team the right decision? What happens if you don’t? You get excited about the fact you tried and then diddle around for 4-5 years trying to get back to the dance and start all over?

But wouldn’t your probably of winning a Super Bowl increasingly the more often you’re in the playoffs? The playoffs are ultimately a crapshoot. I feel like it’s more of a risk going all in on 1-2 seasons and falling short and setting yourself back 4-5 years than it is constantly being competitive and going on a run 1/10 of those seasons? I’m not advocating to avoid taking a big swing here and there either... I’m just trying to look at the two trains of thought.

The process is imperfect. I understand people want it to be as easy as “draft one of the best 32 players and have a good 1st round pick.” There are so many factors that contribute to a guy not succeeding. Never been further than 50 miles away from home and how he’s on the other side of the country. Dad died. Another might believe in lizard people. These are people at the end of the day... nothing is going to be a science when it comes to selecting a player. You can do your best to mitigate risk and have success... but I’m not sure there’s one employer in the world that has a 100% hit rate on new hires. Some bust, you go back to the drawing board. The issue here is, it’s not a free market. You’re operating with a limited set of players and can’t “re-do” when a pick doesn’t work out. You can fix your process, but you’re subject to an entirely different pool of candidates to gather information from. There’s merit to what the Rams are doing, I’m not sure it’s sustainable unless they can continue to have a lot of success in the later rounds and UDFA. The value in the 1st round pick comes from the contract more than anything... it’s a cost controlled and you’re underpaying the player for their performance. Once that first contract is up, it doesn’t really matter anymore. If the Rams want proven, I don’t blame them. They just better have the ability to hit elsewhere.

I have the Bills 2020 draft objectively as the most value extracted among all 32 teams draft classes this season. Bills best at extracting value from the draft since 2017.

Who said the window is now? Probably fans and the media. What about McDermott and Beane preaching sustained success screams “the window is now to make it to a SB” ? I see you’ve joined the Zaven Collins fan club

I guess the issue is, was he actually that good or did the offensive line help? I don’t think he was as bad as he was in Buffalo, but he wasn’t as good as he was in Seattle. I’d still rather have a guy who can create for himself and isn’t dependent on their offensive line. Creating for yourself doesn’t require you to run either, pass catching helps. I think a back like Lynch and Henry is really useful, but I wouldn’t build my offense around them or place emphasis on them.

I’m highly against the use of a pick in the top 2 rounds on a RB, and I’m mot super high on a RD3 RB. I am pretty much anti-RB in the first two days. This is the best approach IMO. Even if Daboll doesn’t get help, this off-season for him needs to be spent examining high functioning run offenses and stealing components to applying to our offense. He’s more than capable of designing great schemes, I just don’t think he spent the proper amount of time. In my opinion that’s some stubbornness, but this regime is also super big on analytics and there’s no metric that will tell you to run instead of throw. We don’t need balance but we need the option. I understand this regime loves their ST guys, but if they’re a ST guy they need to be able to be confident in using them for a few touches a game.

Anyone advocating drafting a RB in RD1 is advocating throwing away a RD1 pick. Draft any other position. Fixing how we run the ball is far more important.

I’m honored to be the (bad) man to have created the number 1 definition in that thread.

Starting QB: This can also be referred to as a backup QB that wins 4 out of 5 games.

Yeah I mean I don’t think it’s a trend, if that’s what you’re trying to suggest. Major analytics guys that people trust like Ben Baldwin have been commenting all year on how Buffalo is the best team when it comes to in-game decision making in terms of win probability. I was upset with McDermott during the game, but I understand his reasoning. The guy admitted he was wrong and is reviewing it and will undoubtedly learn from it. It was really only a year ago when people were complaining that he didn’t use analytics enough. The man, like this team has grown tremendously year in and year out. Losing to KC sucked, but they’re clearly better. I’m not happy we lost, but I think it’s positive they’re going to have to go in and readjust for the future.

Ah I gotcha! Yeah, I really like Harris a lot. Love the way he runs, love what he can provide. I personally just wouldn’t touch him in RD1, but the I’m the anti-RD1 RB guy. I like him so much if the Bills took him in RD2 I’d be severely less upset, but still a little disappointed. I’ve been on guys like Zaven Collins and Toney for months now and would prefer them there. I think they provide what we need on either side of the ball. I actually loved the way Antonio Williams ran in week 17, I’d be curious to see what he can do in a full camp. He’s an example of why I have a hard time using a high pick on a RB. I mean he’s unproven, but he looked perfectly fine and didn’t cost significant draft capital. See Ekeler, Josh Robinson, etc.

Yeah for sure, but not at $12.5M a year. I would take Kamara or McCaffrey every day of the week over Henry and I’m perfectly fine spending the extra $4M to get RB1 numbers with WR2 numbers from the same player.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s very good, but I feel like unless he gets a clean block upfront he’s useless. He needs a full head of steam and to get to the second level in order to be truly dangerous. I don’t think he create enough for himself. At least when I’ve watched him play, I’ve been underwhelmed by his ability in the backfield to turn something into nothing. He’s truly fun to watch in the open field, but he doesn’t get there without help. You can probably make an argument like that related to just about any RB. That’s why I just don’t find significant value in a RB that can’t be flexed out wide and provide in a variety of ways. Give me a McCaffrey, Kamara, Gibson, Hines or Ekeler type RB all day that can create in different scenarios without the consistent dependence on their offensive line. I would never touch a RB in the first two rounds, and I’d be hard pressed to grab one in RD3 unless they can do multiple things. Oddly enough the dual purpose skill set seems to be undervalued across the league, but those types of RBs are the most valuable in a modern offense.

Now for my real take. This is probably a win for the Rams, but Detroit didn't do too bad for themselves. The Rams were very clearly sick of Goff. I know people are going to rip on Stafford, but the bottom line is he's an upgrade one Goff. The way we've seen the NFL go, QBs can play until they're 40 years old in the right system. Stafford will be 33 for the entirety of this upcoming season. He's moving to extremely friendly QB system, one that I feel propped Goff up. I don't think Goff was as bad as his rookie year, but he's also not as good as he's looked playing for McVay at times. The picks are tough to swallow, but moving Goff alone was going to cost a RD1 pick, no doubt about it (See Osweiler, Brock). The Rams have also done VERY well without using RD1 picks. Goff was their last RD1 pick in 2016, since McVay arrived in 2017 the Rams are the 4th winningest team in the NFL. In that same time period, they've done extremely well using the picks they've had to extract value. In my Draft Pick Analysis (found here), done two different ways, the Rams rank 6th and 7th in extracting value with their picks. The strategy has worked well for them over a 4 year period, doesn't mean it will continue to, but they're in win-now mode perpetually. This doesn't actually count (but this tells me maybe it does count), but I believe the Rams relationship with new Detroit GM Brad Holmes (just came from LAR) really helped them execute this deal and because Holmes was a minority hire, the Rams got two picks in return for him. It's ALMOST Goff, 2022 and 2023 1st and 2021 3rd in return for Stafford, 2021 and 2022 3rd. On Detroit's end, Stafford had no place in a long term rebuild. They had had to move him and get picks. Taking Goff's contract sucks, but they're not going anywhere in the near term so it's ok to take the cap hit for the extra pick... it won't kill them. If they can somehow manage to flip Goff here, i'll be impressed. I think it's a good move, but obviously they need to find another taker. LAR felt they could move him regardless of a deal like this, I wouldn't be shocked if DET thinks they can do the same. He's not helping them in the short term either.

Might change this to my Avatar and throw "Bad Man" into my profile. I'm adopting it as my own.

That's how you do it right? That's how you make a good post. I've been watching and learning... finally earned my stripes.

Beane is asleep at the wheel. Why wouldn't he trade Josh Allen for Jared Goff, 2 1sts and a 3rd?!?! Goff has won a Conference Title Game and Josh Allen hasn't. When you can get that type of experience from a QB with picks to boot, you do it! Beane must have known that he would completely screw up the extra draft picks and draft more busts. The sooner we get rid of Beane, the better off this franchise is.

This is where McDermott’s culture comes into play. Dawkins, Tre and Josh are legit stars that get how things go and set the tone for how players are to react to things. 2/3 have received their money and are happy as clams, the other one is going to get PAID. This regime takes care of their guys... when the time is right. They’ve proven that. You nailed it, they already treated Diggs with respect from Day 1. He knows that they take care of guys when it’s the appropriate time, and he will get taken care of. He LOVES his teammates and you can tell. It was that way in MIN too... and they all loved him right back... he just didn’t trust the front office because they lied to him, and it’s documented. The issue is that some of us follow this team to varying degrees. Somebody like me and presumably you know all of the nitty gritty because we’ve consumed every piece of content imaginable related to this team. Others are still HUGE fans, but maybe they don’t have the ability to know all the details. If someone actually knows Diggs, they KNOW he’s a catalyst for positive things to come.

Going to be pretty hard to find significant savings with a Singletary replacement.

Well this isn’t actually true... unless you just believe that development doesn’t exist and a player should be cut when they don’t perform to outside expectations immediately.Which in that case you’d be advocating we move on from Josh after year 1 or 2. The majority of former Panthers brought here were 1 and done. They’ve moved on from underperforming draft picks in a reasonable about of time. You’ve got to give players time to improve and grow. It’s not linear either. They’ve made mistakes for sure, but if I’m reading this correctly your premise is just to give up on guys and churn through bodies constantly. Do we need upgrades? Heck yeah we do. Every team does. With that in mind... we are legitimately one of the top 5 teams in the NFL, the ability to upgrade our players is harder than it was 4-5 years ago when we lacked talent everywhere. We have very few truly bad players, it just isn’t possible for us to have so many on a high performing football team. We may lack difference makers, but there’s not guarantee Felton or any other guy someone may suggest comes in and outperforms whoever they replace. Beane/McDermott know they need to constantly get better and I agree. That’s how you stay at the top, but to this point the good far outweighs the bad. To harp on the things you’re harping on is expecting them to be entirely perfect with every decision they make, if that’s your expectation you’re constantly going to be disappointed.

I mean it has nothing to do with the position... I’m not going to despise a guy because he provides little to no value on my favorite football team, that outside of my passion and interest has no bearing on my day to day life.

Thanks for nothing you useless piece of crap. (Sarcasm coming from me... but a real statement from most of the people on this board).