JGMcD2

I agree with almost everything you’ve said... but this is just straight up illogical. Josh is a generational physical talent and took 3 years to get where he is with all of the resources and time invested in just Josh Allen. Nathan Peterman had 1 season with Brian Daboll in which Brian Daboll was pouring all of his time into the aforementioned generational physical talent drafted that year. I mean *****, the guy is supposed to perform miracles and turn a JAG 5th round QB into a useful piece in just 1 year?

All of these here are workout metrics... or measures of athleticism. They belong to Dawson Knox. Dawson Knox is either considered extraordinary or legitimately right on the cusp of being extraordinary by each one of these metrics when compared to other tight ends. The definition of extraordinary... very unusual or remarkable. The definition of freakish... bizarre or grotesque; abnormal. Dawson Knox is a freakish athlete. Nobody is arguing he's a consistent producer... but you seem to be confusing freakish athleticism for production.

Sorry, serious outlier was a gross exaggeration. I misremembered what I had put together... reaching 1100 is fairly extreme and anything over 1150 is an outlier over the last 10 seasons. This was saved from the last time I posted it, but I have another boxplot on my computer showing the cumulative of the last 10 seasons. Where the Bills were this year was at the upper limits of the 3rd quartile over a 10 season span. You’re REALLY pushing it getting anywhere above there. It’s just not all the much more room. Another thing, is how many of those teams were actually top teams? I know one season was New England where they had like 1200 something plays... but if I recall correctly it was almost random as to the caliber of team that found themselves running over 1100 plays. There are years bad Bills teams were running within 15 plays of what we ran this year... the Bills in 2013 who were 6-10 ran 1116 plays.

I don’t think he’s lost Josh’s trust at all. Knox, at least it seemed like, was a go to target in the RZ down the stretch and in the first playoff game. I just think when your options are Diggs, who has shown he can take over a game... gosh that San Francisco game when before the play you knew he was going to break the DBs ankles and Josh was going to throw it to him was amazing.... and then Cole who’s IMO acted as that security blanket for Josh the last two seasons... it’s hard to get anyone else substantial targets.

I don’t disagree with you on it not being a zero-sum game. Although I do disagree with you on the fact that there are enough plays to squeeze out. The Chargers, I believe were the leader, but they were a serious outlier over the last 10 years. There’s maybe ~30 more plays we can reasonably run, but then you have to take into account run/pass splits. I think it does make sense to tweak the target distribution a little bit so teams have to account for some other guys... but then again we were a Taiwan Jones dropped pass in the end zone and an Andre Roberts tap pass stopped at the 1 away from setting the NFL record for different players with a receiving TD.

If you’re going to post about not wanting Watt because he’s been hurt... that’s totally cool. Perfectly valid POV. But holy moly... at least do a little research and get things right. I’ve seen 6-7 different people today alone say he hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. He legitimately played a full season last year and 2/3 seasons dating back to 2018. Missed 8 games in 2019 but came back from the injury to play 2 playoff games. The misinformation is unbelievable.

He played a full 16 game season in 2018. 8 games and 2 playoff games (came back from an injury to do so) in 2019. Also a full 16 game season in 2020.

Sorry... my sarcasm comes across poor via text. If you look through my posts, I can assure you I don’t feel that way about our front office.

Brandon Beane is an absolute clown. You have found your unequivocal, unquestioned, undisputed franchise QB and he’s playing contract games like this - what is he thinking?!? If I were Josh Allen I would be furious that after the MVP caliber season I just had my GM, who has never played NFL football, said I’m not a priority right now. What a joke of an organization.

I should add that I really enjoyed this mock draft. I’ve been poking around on here for years, but I’ve somehow never seen any of your mocks. It’s a shame, because this is impressive. I absolutely love content like this. I look forward to the rest of the series!

The more I read about this guy @GunnerBill, the more I’m falling in love. I didn’t think I wanted a CB in RD1, but I’d be extremely happy with Newsome at 30. Unfortunately, it looks like you’re right and he’s catching some helium in media outlets and across the league.

It’s BPA related to the Bills draft board. Not your draft board, ESPN, NFL.com, etc. Whether you believe they’re following the strategy they have laid or not is your prerogative, but without knowing what their board looks like how can you make any assertion one way or the other? Although, if you’re trading up to take a specific player wouldn’t he be the best player on your board? I can’t think of many instances where you’re trading up and taking a player that you have grades lower than others...

That’s what all the people I know who grew up in Maryland say... it seems like everyone else loves Old Bay because they heard it’s the #1 seasoning. Interesting.

Old Bay or J.O.’s on your crab?

At first I didn’t think this guy was a diva.... then all of a sudden he was grand standing after the AFCCG loss to KC... now he’s wearing a Raiders shirt. I can’t believe I was wrong this whole time... he’s starting to position himself for a trade to Las Vegas.

So he’s a distraction based on the amount of money? I really don’t understand? Diggs wasn’t supposed to be a distraction because he was acquired when cap was lush and was younger? I didn’t realize contracts and age were the determining factors in a player being a distraction? Normally when people claim a player is going to be a distraction it’s because of their behavior...

Nobody is (likely) signing Watt for more than two years - not sure how what we’re paying him these next two years has anything to do with the caliber of player he is when his contract would be up? Truthfully in free agency in any sport you’re always paying a player what they’re worth based on past production and not future production. That’s just how it works... In what world is it a distraction? The same world that Diggs was going to be a distraction?

Reich would be looking for a new job... or Wentz?

Boy, oh boy. You didn’t read a lick of what I wrote did you? Stop focusing solely on results. It’s quite possibly the worst thing you can do. Sacks are a made up metric too. If you’re going to give me grief for talking about numbers... don’t bring more numbers into the conversation. Lacks candor. Sacks are out of the control of the player at the end of the day. The total is reliant on 10 other guys on the field executing to allow 1 - 2 guys to make that play for a loss on the QB. Beating your man or in Watt’s case more often than not, your men... is not. It’s measuring something a player can control... and if replicated over and over again will likely lead to your desired result... sacks. The horror. Would you prefer your defensive ends not get off blocks? I talked about Watt’s injuries. He just played a full 16 games. Over the last 3 seasons he played 40/48 games and oddly enough the year he missed time (2019) he came back in time for the playoffs and seriously disrupted the game... I forget who that was against? Excuse me if I don’t want to heavily weigh him coming back too quickly from back surgery in 2016 and then fracturing his tibia in 2017. Those aren’t even in the top 5 when it comes to common/reoccurring injuries in the NFL. The torn pec is concerning but he came back in the same season, blew up Josh Allen and then proceeded to play a full 16 games the next season. I made it fairly clear his injuries are part of the reason he’s not (or shouldn’t) get more than $12-13M and age is another. If injuries weren’t a concern he’d be making $17-$20M.

I appreciate your willingness to admit you’re wrong, really do. It would be easy to dig in and fight back. Thank you for that... seriously. I want to unpack you text there though, and think about it just in the context of that post. It says only 4 players who were in the top 10 in double teams ALSO were in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. They are Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Chase Young and JJ Watt. This is just one comparison obviously and cannot be seen as the sole measure for how much he has been paid, BUT I think it’s very illuminating. To be double teamed that often AND beat your double teams tells me you’re creating issues for the opposing offense. Due to that, I want to illustrate what those 3 other players are being paid. Joey Bosa has the largest contract for a DE. 5/$135M with an AAV of $27M. Myles Garrett has the 2nd largest contract for a DE. 5/$125M with an AAV of $25M. Chase Young has the 15th largest contract (rookie deal). 4/$34M with an AAV of $8M. That’s a lot of coin... on average $20M. Now you’re in the right to be concerned about Watt being older, he’s 32 and those guys are 25 or younger. You’re right to be worried about injuries with him as compared to those guys. If that’s your concern, I understand. The root of it is, Watt at 32 performed similar to them and we’re talking about $8M in savings associated with that type of production due to various factors such as age and injury history. Healthy and you have an absolute steal, hurt and you have a signing that really can’t be much worse than Trent Murphy. I think it’s really a snap call with where the Bills are right now. They need an elite pass rusher, he still is, and those guys aren’t growing on trees. If that type of guy is available it’s because they have some warts, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.

Let me follow the train of thought here... You think people are getting caught up in the name and aren’t thinking analytically. Then numbers (analytics) are brought to your attention to illustrate that he’s still a very impactful player. Then you say that the numbers don’t matter anymore and you’re just going off of gut? Tighten it up.

And then who do the Browns have that are elite? Garrett, Ward and Chubb? You conveniently left out some very good players on the Bills but that’s cool too.

I mean is Dorsey going to say they drafted him and his teammates hate him? What else is he supposed to say... It is a relative of a player... came over from another team with a top tier QB and said Baker doesn’t put in close to the same amount of time as the other QB does and it was frustrating for him to see.

I know you’re not going to believe this, but I know someone who is directly related to a Browns player and said they’ve been told Baker is extremely me first.