JGMcD2

I VERY much agree with this. I don’t think they’ve been in the position to do this, and have a good job finding contributors. Like you said with Josh, they took a home run hack and connected. Now they need to continue to do that. I personally feel they wanted to build a winning culture (which is important) and needed to fill so many holes they had to be somewhat safe (thank God we weren’t safe and took the right Josh). Ultimately I think you need 1 star at every level of the defense. DT/DE, LB, CB/S and then on offense you need a star QB, OL and at least 1, but probably 2 skill position players. Right now I think we have 4/7. QB: Josh Allen WR: Stefon Diggs OL: Dion Dawkins CB: Tre White SKILL: Missing DT/DE: Missing LB: Missing (Maybe Edmunds puts it all together) The good news is that those 4 listed are locked up long term. We MIGHT have a 5th on the roster with Edmunds and it’s a big stretch but MAYBE Oliver can do that for us as well. But at the moment we need another elite offensive skill player, a DE/DT and LB. If we can get 2/3 and maybe even all 3 this off-season we’re in fantastic shape. At this point I would prioritize DE, LB and Skill. We need a DE who can disrupt the game more than anything else. We need a LB who can take pressure of Edmunds and just like him use his physical traits. I think we have enough good talent on offense we don’t have to prioritize a skill player, but in a dreams scenario we’d have another electric playmaker that would scare defenses. It’s me being overly picky and sensitive at this point, but the drafts aren’t average. Average would be getting average value, they’ve done better than that. I think your analysis is correct, but that’s not average, at least in the NFL Draft. That’s all I’ve every really been trying to get at. You can check my other posts in here to see my stance on things, but I agree that we need to land 2-3 more star level players. To your RB point, I believe Singletary and Moss forced the most missed tackles in CFB when they came out. For whatever reason that seems to be what they value. I think that’s what they viewed as their best trait. I don’t necessarily understand the logic enough to comment on it, I’d be curious to actually hear them explain the thought process. But the point remains, neither have an elite physical trait. It’s easier to have success with elite physical tools, but it doesn’t necessarily mean success.

That’s just the point, I’m trying to throw out people’s perceptions of how the draft class is and stack it up against other draft classes. You might think it’s bad. But nothing is really good or bad other than by comparison. A lot of teams aren’t even finding starters in their drafts, it’s a hard thing to do. I totally agree we need more impact guys, that’s the next step, but we can’t take for granted the ability to find contributors. It wasn’t too long ago we were begging for that. These guys have continued to improve, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t take the next step and find stars (they have done it before too). This is the difference between the values. TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class. The one I’m primarily using in discussion is TOT_NETDrAV. Which is only reflects the value that the drafting team has received from the players they drafted. This doesn’t reflect Teller’s value while playing in Cleveland, because it didn’t occur while in Buffalo. I do include TOT_NETCarAV as I find it interesting how teams have done just drafting pure talent. That’s why this value is higher for the Bills, because it includes how valuable Teller has been, albeit for the Browns.

I can’t say I disagree with much here, if anything at all. I like your point on patching areas of need. My stance has been that there were so many holes it was probably best to try and avoid big misses in the draft and target guys with the ability to contribute without the chance of busting big. Although, it may have been better served to target different positions in the draft and use FA to do what I just described. I mentioned it earlier, but I think that Beane has shown he’s willing to take risks and swing for high upside. It’s arguable that Josh Allen was one of the single biggest draft risks... ever (the entire process to move up for him was bold as well). The trade for Diggs using draft capital was bold. He’s definitely capable of doing it, but felt like he needed a foundation place. I REALLY hope that now that we have that foundation in place (yes there are holes, but every good team has holes) that he starts taking more swings more often. It’s what the next step is. He has to be more bold. There is a lot of talent, I won’t get into how absurd NFL hiring practices are, but it’s fair that they did not get hired to lead their own franchise, so they need to continue to do more. You’re exactly right on your last point. I also said it above, but I feel like this team was created to beat the Brady lead Bills because they were the standard in the AFC East and the conference as well. Now the standard is the Chiefs lead by Mahomes, it’s time to construct a team with the goal of beating that team. They’ve already said the right things in regards to that, and this regime has proven their ability to learn from mistakes and grow. I really think this was a blessing in disguise, they’re going to be laser focused on doing everything necessary to take that next step. If we squeaked by the Chiefs this year and lost/won a Super Bowl I’m not sure we’d do the proper things to beat KC long term.

Not necessarily, it takes into account the value found in that round and if you can extract more. You can definitely benefit from having more picks and hitting on all of them minimally or you can benefit from having very few picks and hitting 1 big and missing on the others. It really just rewards you for extracting as much value as possible, without just looking at raw AV which doesn’t really tell a story as to how you drafted. So, a first round pick would help, if that pick performed well for us. If they didn’t, it would hurt the value.

So you tell me it’s a terrible metric, but you STILL don’t understand how it works. It’s based on the value on the board in the round that the player was drafted. You also don’t even have enough insight to tell me about a draft class you brought up specifically. I never said it was perfect, I said it was better than what you’re doing above. Putting your own context on the Chiefs draft class. It takes subjectivity out of the equation and uses AV, a metric that‘s used by people who get paid to cover football, use to compare players. It goes a step further and shows how much value you’re extracting from the draft. I once again invite you to come up with a better way to objectively measure performance in the draft.

I mentioned it earlier. They’ve been very good against WR. Their excel there. They don’t do very well against TE or RB. Those are the positions that gave them the biggest issues this year down the stretch after guys like L’Jarious Snead emerged and made a significant impact in their pass defense.

Yes, I agree. As much as I’m sad we didn’t take advantage of a great opportunity this year to reach and potentially win the Super Bowl, I feel like yesterday’s loss is actually a good thing for us. As much as this regime has been running things better than pretty much every other organization, they still need to improve. This is going to force them to go back again and dig deep to fix these issues and plug the holes. The one thing that I think they’re actually “elite” at is fixing their mistakes and improving their decision making. I remember early on them saying this team was being constructed to beat the Patriots (with Brady), and they were so close last year. I think this year they got to that point and would’ve beat a Brady lead Pats team. The issue is, the measuring stick is no longer the division, it’s the conference. In the past that was the same thing with Brady at the helm, but now the conference runs through Mahomes. They need to construct a team to beat the Chiefs lead by Mahomes. McDermott’s comments along with a few players give me every indication they realize this and will do everything in their power to execute it.

Fair point on KC, but Andy Reid does have full roster control and Veach has been with him since he arrived in KC. Dorsey and Veach both have significant say, but it’s the Andy Reid show. That’s why I don’t think it’s dishonest to use 8 years when referencing the Chiefs. It doesn’t worry me at all. I personally believe that McDermott and Beane are as close to being one as you can be. I actually just came across this nugget when looking to confirm Reid’s full control... it is from when Beane was hired so I feel comfortable using the same methodology to combine Beane and McDermott’s drafts 2017-2020. “The Buffalo News has learned that the Bills’ model will pretty much replicate that of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ GM, John Dorsey, has a significant say in the assembling of the 53-man roster, but there is no mistaking that coach Andy Reid is in charge of the entire football operation and has final say. Besides the Bills and Chiefs, the only other team that has a coach calling the football shots for the organization is the New England Patriots, who do everything the Bill Belichick way.” Sean let’s him handle the draft, but he has final say on the picks, much like in 2017. They’re both heavily involved in the process and executing the same plan. I am fairly certain the draft would have been nearly identical had Beane been brought in for 2017. The rumors about getting intel from Carolina in that draft don’t shock me at all. I agree with your assessment of Beane, he’s shown that he can take a swing for a star and connect. He took an absolute risk on the most important position and hit it out of the park, but he put his balls on the table there. Obviously McDermott had to approve but Beane had to say he was the guy as well. Up to this point I do not think we’ve been in a position to take a swing for the fences very often. If you try to think about it from their perspective starting in 2017, they felt the need to gut the roster and also remain competitive, so they can’t swing for a star because if they miss, they don’t have enough contributors elsewhere to remain competitive. Then they took a risk with Josh, but couldn’t keep taking risks elsewhere for 2 reasons. 1) Josh needs all the steady support he can get to develop properly 2) If he doesn’t develop properly then you have solid contributors on the roster to plug a new QB into. If you don’t fill the roster with contributors in this phase you put yourself in a tough spot to readjust. Then he took another aggressive swing with his draft capital to acquire Diggs... because he felt like he needed to add a star. He’s not afraid to do it, but in my opinion he feels like he can’t do it all the time. Personally I feel like that’s the right approach, and I think we’re going to see him up the aggressiveness slightly, but not enough where he risks severely missing. I believe he’s been one of the best executives since being hired in 2017. I think he’s a safe drafter and can consistently find value, but for him to take the next step and the Bills to take the next step as well, he does need to take a few more swings. The good news is I think the organization is now in a position where it can support that. Whether it be a high ceiling/low floor guy, a character concern, a small school project, etc. I think the foundation now exists to support that.

I do combine it into McBeane, we know they’re in lock step and we seem to have gotten even more clarity recently that McDermott still has some roster control. I agree though we have 3 stars that we’ve drafted IMO - White, Dawkins and Allen. Plus a 4th in Diggs. But you’re more than fair and someone brought it up in another post, but KC has had 8 years under Reid to find those impact players Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were all drafted prior to McBeane showing up in Buffalo... so 4+ years and KC didn’t win Super Bowl #1 until last year. That’s when it all came together. This team right now is roughly where the Chiefs were when they added Mahomes - so close to putting it together and winning it all. Needed some more experience and a few more pieces. I understand the timeline with Allen is a little different, but the point I’m getting at is they’re not significantly lagging behind the Chiefs, they just need the same amount of time get everything settled, at this point they’re outpacing Reid.

New Orleans has 2 top 10 drafts here, but also a bottom 2 draft. They had had arguably one of the best drafts in NFL history in 2017 which propels them to the top, but when you pretty much hit on an entire draft you can get away with a lot. Good point with QBs. I’m sorry you don’t understand. You can scroll back up to read and understand how it works, or I encourage you to devise another way to objectively measure draft classes. All it’s showing you is that Minnesota hit on Jefferson and didn’t do anything else with their picks. Same with KC and Snead. Buffalo might not have gotten 1 impact player but they managed to find multiple contributors. It rewards you for finding value. I also made it clear it’s better to have a few more years to get a more accurate reflection of the class, although because it’s in comparison to its own class and production it’s a little more stable.

I hope I am wrong too!

I've been on him for a bit... I really want him. REALLY want him, but I think he will be gone. He doesn't quite have Tyreek Hill's speed, but the ability to stop start reminds me a bit of him.

All I am trying to do is put context around their draft. I can't stand people just yelling "they're average drafters" or "below average drafters." Well let's try and find a way to measure that and I think this does a good (albeit not perfect) job of objectively measuring how well the Bills have done in each draft compared to their peers. You hit the nail on the head, Andy Reid has had 8 years to build the team that he has now. He's had 8 drafts to find impact players. They have Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and Jones who they've drafted over those 8 years with a bunch of other contributors sprinkled in. McBeane has had 4 drafts and they have White, Allen and Dawkins (I won't include Edmunds because he's controversial) with a bunch of other contributors they've selected themselves as well. You have to look through the lens of what the league has done, they can't be good or bad without being compared to their peers. I'd tell you this analysis was crap, but if you look closely it makes sense. 8/10 top drafting teams from 2017-2020 were in the playoffs this year!! The two that missed were LAC (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with coaching issues) and SFO (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with injury issues). Chicago and Washington are teams who are a QB away from being seriously competitive teams. On top of that, look at some of the worst drafting teams! NE, CIN, DEN, OAK, NYJ. Those teams all missed the playoffs. Only 2 of the 10 worst drafting teams managed to make the playoffs - CLE and GB. Everyone who is arguing we draft poorly is doing so because they believe that you have to draft well to have success. This supports that. It's not perfect, but the results make sense.

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top. Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though).

I mean here... But you're missing the point, you may feel like they're not extracting enough value... but they're extracting more than everyone else in the league.

It’s included. This is just Total Career Net AV and Total Career Net Drafted AV. It’s all baked in there, so for the 2017 draft class it takes into account 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. It operates the same for 2018 and 2019. I had done this before 2020 drafted players had their AV calculated, but 2017-2019 I updated to include their 2020 season. What names do I need to list? It’s publicly available information. Go to Wikipedia, NFL.com or Pro Football Reference. Stop acting like I’m hiding who teams took in the draft from 2017-2019.

Then what do other teams have if we’re extracting more value than them?

What’s wrong with heat maps? I work in MLB and they’re used heavily in advanced scouting...

Sad but expected that none of the negative Nancy posters are willing to even comment.

They’re only good or bad by comparison, in comparison to NFL passing offenses in 2020, they were elite. Why didn’t we? Because Baltimore and KC are arguably the two best pass defenses in the entire league. Sprinkling in our entire WR room being hurt, and our #2 option playing a with broken leg, doesn’t help either.

You can’t just assert the schedule was weak, it was one of the toughest schedules in the league, and the toughest amongst playoff teams. SOS at .512 was the highest of all playoff teams. SOV at .471 was the highest of all playoff teams The 7 seed Colts were an 11-5 football team that was a tiebreaker away from being the 4 seed. Try again.

You conveniently left out passing the football? Thanks for setting me up... we had an elite passing offense this season, it’s not even debatable. That’s what the team is good at. If you’re arguing we’re not balanced, sure. If you’re arguing they are overrated because they were REALLY good at passing the ball and average to below average at everything else an route to winning 15 games against one of the 3 toughest schedules in the league... you need to re-evaluate your stance.

Overrated based on your feelings or..?

Would be nice, not sure I’m ready to anoint him a starter, but he showed some moxie. Levi Wallace is a RFA so he will likely be back and for pretty cheap.