JGMcD2

I mean that's fine, but considering GB has had stability in with their GM/replacing from in house from Thompson to Gutekunst in 2017 where Thompson remained involved in the day to day (2005-Present), Jason Licht has been the GM in Tampa since 2014 and Reid/Veach have been together since 2013 it makes sense that they would have more players coming from drafts still on their team... we basically got rid of everyone drafted BEFORE McBeane.

I put this together about 2 months ago, but with the season over and AV now updated, I figured it would be a good time to revisit. I agree with a lot of the posters saying that we're missing pieces. Of course we are, but I'm tired of the assertions that we need to draft better. We've objectively been THE BEST drafting team in the NFL from 2017-2019. I don't feel comfortable using a 1 year sample from 2020 just yet, but truthfully at this point it will drop the Bills 1 MAYBE 2 spots overall (I haven't had the chance to break it all down yet, but I will update when I do). I know people are going to try and rip this to shreds as stupid, but I have read numerous articles using AV as a way to compare draft classes. Many on The Athletic, like this article where they evaluate the Saints 2017 draft class using AV (my original analysis was done almost 3 weeks prior to this coming out, and yes it reflects the Saints having the best draft class in 2017 by a wide margin). Here is my methodology from the original post... Nobody really had a great way to measure success in the draft outside of their perception of a player... I wanted to make an attempt at examining this objectively. Pro Football Reference has their Weighted Approximate Value which assigns a value to a player based on their performance. It's not an all encompassing stat like WAR is in baseball, it definitely has its flaws, but PFR said it's steady to use to measure draft success. I'm going to dive into the results below on the draft, as well as some analysis I have done of the FA signings. Nothing is really over the top, I'm going to take some feedback and try to refine this. I had to do a lot of it by hand in excel and couldn't just scrape everything because different pieces were all over. I chose 2017 specifically because that is when Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived. Some folks want to argue that Beane shouldn't get credit for that draft and FA, which is perfectly fine. I am in the camp that believes McDermott and Beane are in lockstep, they make up the upper management of the football department, therefore the decisions made since 2017 have been made with certain goals in mind. I don't feel the need to omit 2017 because it was scrambled, it's very clear these two are close and the decisions made were made by McBeane in some way, shape or form starting in 2017. "Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions. AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR The career AV is computed by summing 100 percent of the AV of his best season, 95 percent of the AV of his next-best season, 90 percent of the AV of his third-best season, and so on What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class. Yes, I agree that they're missing something, but this constant assertion that this regime are "average drafters" or that we "have too many busts" is flat out wrong. You are only good or bad by comparison, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. They've extracted more value than any other team in the league over their first 3 years in the NFL. This will continue to change as players perform, but right now they have a clearly performed well drafting. It's not even debatable, Buffalo, New Orleans and Baltimore have been far and away the best drafting teams in the NFL from 2017-2019. Do we need more impact players? Yes, every team does and actively seeks them out. But this notion that we don't draft well is garbage, complete and utter garbage.

I agree that something is missing when it comes to some positions on the field, no doubt there’s a need to upgrade or supplement. We’ve objectively been one of the top 3 drafting teams in the league since McBeane got here. You can’t miss on as many picks as you’re asserting and that be true. You’re only good or bad by comparison and the Bills have consistently been one of the best drafting teams in the NFL under this regime. They’re a top 5 team in the league, with their core coming from the draft, their drafting is not killing them. Not true, must be compared to peers and this regime has objectively drafted better than 29-30 other teams.

Lol because the one time all game we tried it they immediately threw a flag. Obviously not the reason we avoided it, but I just found it funny.

We’ve objectively been one of the top drafting teams over the last 4 years. I’ll post the information tomorrow. I get you’re upset but suggesting to jettison a HC that has changed the perception (and reality of Buffalo) after decades of misery seems a little foolish. He had us a game away from the Super Bowl today and has consistently improved each year as a coach. The reality is very few coaches outside of Belichick and now it looks like Reid have been pumping out SB year after year, if you keep chasing that with no direction it’s useless.

You hit the nail on the head with the roll outs. I’m generally not a fan, unless it’s on a broken play. Some seemed to be designed to flow to the right and I just think it severely limits the QB’s options. Josh has progressed enough where he can stand in the pocket, make a read and a throw to either side of the field. Although, I guess his instinct is to roll that way to escape pressure and that’s all he saw today. I still can’t get over how poorly the o-line played. Part of me is wondering if things significantly change if after we went up 9-0 and if Jones had gotten ejected (like he should have, I have no idea why that’s not radioed in by NY) if it would have changed the game. I felt like just 1 more thing needed to break our way to hold the chiefs back, and their best defensive player getting himself tossed might have done it. It’s just pure what- if from me, and probably doesn’t make a difference. Josh is a stud and is really the only QB in the league that can carry an entire offense by himself, and I’m by no means discounting what Daboll has done with him, but I really feel like Daboll did not put Josh in a position to succeed in any of the playoff games. Any positive plays were a result of Josh making them happen. If he doesn’t make some insane throws against IND before the half we’re 1 and done. Those were purely backyard football plays too. You’re right, I’m wondering if they just accepted that KC was going to score and were expecting the offense to keep pace? I have no clue. I think McDermott has grown so much and this year has done a really good job in all aspects, but he failed today. I still feel strongly he’s a top 3-5 coach in the game, we just DO NOT match up well with KC/he didn’t have an answer/the players seemed like the moment was too big for them. I was encouraged to see his comments after the game with something along the lines of “everything we do this off-season will be with the mindset of how do we beat that team.” I trust they’ll make the adjustments. I feel like this team was constructed to beat a Brady-type QB and then things changed real quick and Mahomes popped up. Time to adapt to the new standard.

Well that’s a lot different than a short sentence is it not? I mean your logic is fairly flawed in terms of separation. None of our WR were consistently creating separation against KC. I’m guessing we need to upgrade Diggs and Beasley as well because of that? KC has been eaten alive by TE and RB all year in the passing game. Their secondary is severely underrated, they play physical against WR and get away with it. They’ve struggled the most against TE because their LB are not particularly great. I said going into the game Knox was going to need to be relied on heavily because of that, athletically he’s a mismatch for their LB, but he has obvious consistency issues. It seemed the game plan was to get him involved early, but the constant pressure from the Chiefs didn’t give Josh the opportunity to process anything. Eventually it just became the Bills playing catch up and there didn’t really seem to be a plan anymore. It just looked like Josh trying to improvise with the play breaking down all around him. The team lacked aggressiveness tonight and looked like they were playing scared. McDermott, for the second time this season, couldn’t figure out an answer for KC on defense. I thought they were on to something early but Mahomes escaped a few times and got into a groove. I felt like it was necessary to keep him in the pocket because, like Josh, he causes a lot of damage when improvising. Not that he can’t and won’t shred you from the pocket. Once things started rolling for the Chiefs offensively, and we had to scratch and claw to get down the field, it got out of hand quick. I don’t know on McKenzie, I know he was battling an injury but hasn’t been on the report. I don’t think his 2-3 gadget plays a game change anything here. Although it is puzzling that he wasn’t really experimented with. Ultimately the Chiefs are in a league of their own. They outplayed us and we don’t matchup well with them. The moment seemed too big and the Bills looked like they were playing at a slower speed than KC the whole time. Some of it is experience, as many of those players have been there before (yes, believe me, it matters) and the other part was just that they’re flat out a better team. A player like Kyle Dugger or Jeremy Chinn would be extremely useful in combatting Kelce (and any TE for us moving forward). I know there are a few uber athletic linebackers like Z. Collins, JOK, Nick Bolton and then Hamsah Niserildheen (spelling) that’s a hybrid safety type. We also sorely lack a pass rusher than can wreck a game. As much as we can’t take a WR in RD1, I’d love a guy like Kadarius Toney from FL. He would add the speed element to the offense, his stop start ability is next level, and he can play all over. He’s not quite Tyreek Hill, but he reminds me of him slightly. I think that transforms the offense, but I haven’t done as much digging into any other players who may be like that. The biggest thing, is the staff needs to take pressure off of Josh. He just can’t be the entire offense, it’s not sustainable. He also needs to continue to improve when it comes to taking what the defense gives him. The more he evolves into dink/dunk down the field and then sprinkle in those explosive plays, the easier the game will be for him. It’s one way for him to combat the pressure of having to do absolutely everything for the offense to function.

Ah, putting words in my mouth. Nowhere did I say “expert.” I can assure that my points are more fleshed out than “he’s just not good enough.” Real big brain analysis.

Well, generally I try to post insightful things and some analysis. I’ve run my mouth before, I pick and choose my spots. Typically save it for the REALLY dumb posters.

A better community reputation with 1/3 of the posts you have. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Oh, and by the way, Sean McDermott was out there too watching the Chiefs celebrate. Unbelievable our coach would grandstand like that. Made me change my opinion of him too. SARACASM Part of it had to do with KC mugging our WR and the line giving Josh no time to do anything. He had 1-2 guys in his face almost every play it seemed.

Bro, he was crying on the sidelines because he cares. Get a grip. He wants to win. He dropped what, 1 pass today getting drilled over the middle? I think we had bigger issues today other than our superstar WR dropping a pass.

Just like your posts.

Supposedly McDermott stayed out there too. This is the first time all year where everything seemed like it was moving too fast for the Bills. They were excited, but jittery. Josh has that glassy look in his eyes, the one where he’s not quite confident. The Chiefs just seemed like they were playing at a different speed. What I do know, after 4 years of this regime and these players, they will grow from this. As much as we love them, they love us back. They care and they want to be great. This is the end of the 2020 Buffalo Bills season, but the starting point for something greater.

Because you have to start somewhere at some point...

On Wednesday last week before the Ravens game my buddy texted me and said “I’m making a trade today, two Sabres losses to the Capitals on Thursday and Friday in exchange for a Buffalo Bills win.” He texted me on Thursday this week and said “I’m once again making a trade today, two Sabres losses to the Capitals on Friday and Sunday in exchange for a Buffalo Bills win.” Come on Sabres!! Do what you do best and lose today!!

Yeah I wasn’t really trying to get into all of that lol I was just providing context for someone who said it matters.

I actually did my own math for real. I did weeks 10-16 for Buffalo and KC (excluded Week 17 because Chiefs rested their starters). They each played 6 games. Buffalo PD: 87 Kansas PD: 25 62 NET. Bills opponents during that stretch: 45-51 Chiefs opponents during that stretch: 50-46 throw out the WC round because the chiefs didn’t play that weekend and just use the divisional round. Buffalo PD: 104 Kansas PD: 30 74 NET. Bills opponents during that stretch: 56-55 Chiefs during that stretch: 61-51. MAN, MY 80 PTS WAS CLOSE!

A little bit of a reach, man. I really enjoy your posts, you’ve been really even handed, but it’s a 121 point difference. If it was like 5 points, sure. It’s 121 points. We opted against resting our starters for 4 quarters and kept Miami out of the playoffs. In the event we don’t do that, each of us plays 2 playoff teams and rests their starters in week 17 and the point differential is, let’s say 80 points in favor of Buffalo. Does it make a difference? Take out the Colts playoff game too if you want... it was +3 points.

Nobody is white washing, I looked earlier at it wasn’t in there. It was changed twice now.

It looks like the original article amended its statement and removed coronavirus.

The article no longer mentions anything about coronavirus. It now says “severe case of pneumonia.”

@High Football IQCan you confirm ?

I don’t think he gets it publicly, privately McBeane know he’s a rising star. In 2017 McDermott interviewed Dorsey for the OC position before they hired Rick Dennison. He thought he was worth an interview for the spot then, here we are 4 years later and he’s likely to have gained even more relevant experience.