nbbillsfan

I think Beane showed his thoughts on trading 2019 draft picks. The truth is we were lucky to make the playoffs last year. There are teams who had down years who should have been better, and the AFC as a whole should be better/deeper this year. Oh, and we will be starting a rookie qb or a AJ Mcarron. Beane likely sees that there is a real potential we are a bad team this year. We would not get a good value on our 2019 picks as teams will contend that that pick should be in the 21 range (where we were this year), when in reality it might be much higher than that....

Any easy way to confirm this is look at other QB's completion % in that offense. Nic Shimonek, this years QB in that offense, had a 66.5% completion %. That is one thing that people don't seem to understand, so much of completion % is the offense you run. Allen may very well struggle with completion % in the NFL, but it is erroneous to think a guy like Mahomes won't because he had a high completion % in college.

Yes, If you are a jerk who historically doesn’t respond well to coaching then you do have to be more talented than a guy who is strong leader and is very coachable in order to succeed. With that being said, there are nearly as many examples of the former as there is of the latter.

But listen to the guy talk, you can hear his arrogance for yourself. It’s not just rumors and smoke, if you listen to the qbs in this draft talk they are all likeable; Rosen is not. again, if he’s a great qb none of this will matter. Likewise, if Allen is the most likeable/coachable player of all time, but can’t put it together, than who cares.

Doesn’t it seem odd to you that his own head coach wouldn’t suggest him for the #1 pick?

Ya, you are missing the point.

I don’t think anyonr was afraid of drafting Rosen because he is a “troublemaker”, they were scared off because he is a jerk. If you are phenomenal QB, you can be a jerk and still lead a successful NFL team. But you have to be great; will Rosen be good enough to overcome this, we will find out.

it sounded "highsmith" had him 5th, at the end of the season. Not sure how he had him come draft day. Also, sounds like Dorsey had Allen higher. I disagree. Wonderlics, just like SAT/LSAT ect., do have a strong correlation to IQ. However, your excuse does sound like something Rosen would say. Also, I live in Newport Beach, so it is actually 95% USC fans...

I too know people who know Josh personally as I live in Orange County and am very close friends with a former bruin (now in the nfl). People don't like him for 2 reasons: 1. If you are dumb, he makes you feel stupid, 2. If you are smart, you realize Rosen isn't nearly as smart as he thinks he is. Look, the wonderlic isn't exactly a direct measurement of intelligence, but it is relevant. I am 100% confident if you asked Rosen before the wonderlic how he would fair against Darnold and Allen, he would assume he would destroy them in any intellectual endeavor....alas he did not. Ultimately, I am not sure how much his likability matters. I think there are a plethora of borderline narcissistic/jerk quarterbacks like Rosen in the league. Some struggle (Cutler and Ryan Leaf) some flourish (Cam Newton and Aaron Rogers.) If Rosen isn't great, his personality will be a huge problem, I guarantee it. If he is a pro-bowler, he will be like Lebron, an egomaniac, but it won't matter.

One thing I think is an interesting exercise is to compare the Quarterbacks vs. Their Backups (assuming they got any meaningful playing time). In some ways, I think this is more valuable than comparing the QB's statistically against each other as so much of stats is affected by system, supporting players, coaching ect." Josh Allen: Passing Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Josh Allen 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 2 Nick Smith 40 74 54.1 471 6.4 5.7 2 2 111.0 Clearly, Josh Allen outperforms his backup (to be expected...)and both had fairly low. Also, this is from Allen's most recent season (his down season). Wyoming was 0-2 with Nick smith and 8-3 with Allen. Josh Rosen: Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Josh Rosen 283 452 62.6 3756 8.3 8.5 26 10 147.0 2 Devon Modster 51 79 64.6 671 8.5 9.5 4 0 152.6 Interesting to see that Devon Modster (who is a good qb in his own right) had slightly better stats than Rosen. However, UCLA did go 1-3 with Modster as a starter and 5-4 with Rosen. Sam Darnold Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Sam Darnold 246 366 67.2 3086 8.4 9.0 31 9 161.1 2 Max Browne 58 93 62.4 507 5.5 4.9 2 2 111.0 This is from Sam's stellar freshman year, as he played nearly all snaps this past year. He outperfoms former #1 H.S. QB recruit Max Browne by a fairly wide margin. Darnold was my #1 QB in the draft (i think Beane's too) and this helps support that. Baker Mayfield Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Baker Mayfield 285 404 70.5 4627 11.5 12.9 43 6 198.9 2 Kyler Murray 18 21 85.7 359 17.1 20.0 3 0 276.5 Obviously a very small sample size as Baker didn't miss much time in his college career. However, every time Murray played he did exceptionally well. Can't help but make you consider if some of Baker's lofty stats have to do with his situation. This exercise would take a lot more consideration, analyzing game logs, considering opponents ect. However, I do think it is interesting that only Josh Allen and Sam Darnold seemed to clearly outperform their backup, albeit Darnold in a more convincing manner.

Ya, reading the tea leaves I think the bills likely had a board of 1. Darnold 2. Allen/mayfield 3. Rosen.

Lol so nfl execs are going to be manipulated into overdrafting a guy because they think the stalwarts in Drafting, the Browns, might like him...?

And where exactly is this picture...

Looks to me like the jets Checkmated the bills on getting mayfield or darnold. However, I guess there is a chance that if they really wanted darnold the bills could have tried to trade for 4 and then 2, allowing giants to still get sequan (seems unlikely on draft day though). oh well, we will likely never know how the bills had the qbs rated.

I wish coach Bohl would have indicated that Allen could do some of the stuff Wetnz did (change protection, ect). My fear with Allen is not accuracy, I think he is a very accurate passer, it is football IQ. High completion percentage often have more to do with the intelligence to set up the play correctly and throw to the right person (things I think the Elite QB's do better than everyone else) and getting easy completions - this is where Allen will need to grow.

its obvious they preferred Allen quite a bit more than Rosen. Not sure if they got "their guy" who may have been Mayfield or Darnold. In fact, Beane has never said they got "their #1 guy, which leads me to believe he was not the #1 QB on their board.

I strongly believe Beane and Co likely had one (or both) of Baker and Darnold higher than Allen. However, it seems obvious to me that if they wanted Darnold badly, and felt he was miles ahead of Allen, they would have made a bold move up to 2. I also feel they feel they strongly preferred Allen to Rosen. If not, than they likely would have stayed pat until one of Allen or Rosen was taken, and then make a move, if necessary.

While Allen was likely not our number 1, there are reports we tried to move up to 4 and had a deal in place for 5, so we do know that the bills liked Allen enough to try to move up as high as 4. Allen may not work out, but what I wanted was for our gm to be excited enough about a qb choice that we would make a move. Seems silly, but I’m much happier/more confident with Allen being drafted in a trade up and ahead of Rosen than I would have been if we just drafted Allen at 12 as the only “big 4” qb left.

I have to believe that they had mayfield and/or darnold higher as you never heard beans say something along the lines of “we got our top rated qb”

Seems like smoke, potentially to trick bills into thinking they don’t need to trade up to 2.

While what Palmer says has truth, there are other guys in NFL draft history who had these factors affecting there completion percentage...and yet the good ones still completed passes at a higher clip.

Strange question, but would rather pick Allen at 12 or trade up to get him (perhaps even above other top 4 QBs)? i know it’s strange, but I might be happier/more confident if we traded up to get him and got the sense that he was “our guy” and not just a potential obvious bust we got stuck with.

Not to argue that we should have, but we could have tried to trade with someone like Tampa. Then trade up again to 3.

pretty sure drew brees is like a 53 mph guy....

Next years one could be top 10 or 5....I would give up 22 all day.