SoTier

My main argument with your post was your claim that QB prospects had "value", and in 2018, they looked to have "value" throughout the first round. Generic draft picks have "value". Players have "value". Prospects don't except to draftniks since nobody knows if Prospect X is going to become a Pro Bowler or a bust, and it's what a prospect does after he becomes a player that's important.

Exactly this. Unless you can get to the very best QB prospect in the draft and unless he's the undisputed #1 prospect of all, I think trading up is a losing proposition. If the Bills had traded up to get Eli Manning, that might have been justified because he was the undisputed best QB prospect in that draft., but to trade up to get the 4th best prospect? Stupid move, and done totally to sell tickets since Losman was rated at about the same level as Matt Schaub plus the Bills still had Drew Bledsoe, so they really didn't have to have a QB in that draft. Losman would likely have been available in the second or the third if they wanted him, but if he wasn't, no great loss. The Bills fans whining about how bad trading up to get Watkins in 2015 was are simply clueless about what a really bad trade looks like. The Bills had the 18th pick in the 2005 draft but it went to Dallas to get Losman while Rodgers, who was expected to go in the top 3 lasted until 24! They could have also taken Cutler in 2006 who would have been a better choice than Losman, but the Bills weren't interested in another QB because they thought they had theirs. When you figure the cost of trading up to take a bust, you not only have to factor in the lost picks but also the lost opportunities. This is especially true of QBs since most of the time they're either good enough or busts with little salvageable value for the team that drafted them.

Even if he's as lousy a prospect as EJ Manuel, draft him anyways. That's always a winning strategy!

Actually, it has to do with the Bills having revolving doors for DBs, RBs, and WRs because they've been unwilling to pay market value for those positions, so that they are continually using first and second round picks on those positions so they can fill the holes left by the players they trade away or lose in FA. That why the Bills are always short on talent at several positions at once and why they never have depth and why they never have OLers and DLers being developed. FTR, the Bills drafted a QB recently in 2013. They drafted Manuel because they needed/wanted a QB in the first round not because Manuel was BPA. They could have taken him in the second or third round, and if some other team had taken him, they could have taken Glennon instead who is at least serviceable. It's not draft position but incompetence that's has insured the Bills have missed the playoffs for this entire century -- and are likely to continue to do so because they continue to do the same kinds of things they've been doing.

Most years there aren't even two QBs worth drafting. Only 5 of 14 years between 2001 and 2014 produced two or more decent starters from any round: 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2012. If Bridgewater can't return to play well and Bortles doesn't resurrect his career then 2014 won't be one either.

This is nonsense because it's based on false logic. The success or failure of any draft class or any position within a draft class can only be judged by success in the NFL of the players with the draft class or drafted position. Who the hell cares if there's 6 QBs taken in the first round in 2018 if they all bust? A first round QB who is a bust isn't any kind of "value". Moreover, for whatever reason, most likely because colleges aren't running pro-style offenses very much any more but possibly just mere coincidence, there's seems to be a growing trend in the last 5 years for serviceable or better QBs to come from outside of the first round. Looking at all the QBs drafted in the first round between 2001 and 2014 (I wanted QBs to have a minimum of 3 years to prove themselves), I found there were 39. Of those, 3 are likely HOF candidates: Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger from 2004 and Aaron Rodgers from 2005. Those guys are "top tier franchise QBs" IMO. (< 8%) There's another group of 6 or 7 first round QBs who I call "second tier" (I can't decide if Michael Vick should be in this group or in the next lower group). They're all winners: Vick (2001), Palmer (2003), Rivers (2004), Ryan (2008), Stafford (2009), Newton (2011), Luck (2012). Some of them will likely become HOFers, most likely Rivers, Ryan, and/or Stafford. (17.9%) I found another group of 6 QBs taken in the first round who weren't quite as good as the first two groups but who were certainly not busts, either. These were Alex Smith (2003), Jay Cutler (2006), Joe Flacco (2008), Sam Bradford (2010), Ryan Tannehill (2012), and Teddy Bridgewater (2014). I included Bridgewater because in his first two seasons, he was a very serviceable QB, and his future is in doubt because of an injury not because of how he played when healthy. (15.4%) The largest group, by far, was the first round QBs who busted. There were 23 of those. (59%). 11 of them were drafted in the bottom half of the first round. 5 busts came from the top three picks, including two #1 picks (David Carr (2002 - #1 and JaMarcus Russell (2007 - #1)). The remaining 7 were drafted between #5 and #12. Prior to 2011, you could count on the fingers of 1 hand and have a digit or two to spare the number of successful QBs who were drafted outside the first round: Drew Brees (2001 - 2nd); Matt Schaub (2004 - 3rd); Kyle Orton (2005 - 4th). There was also UDFA Tony Romo. Since then, there's been a virtual explosion of successful QBs coming from later rounds: Andy Dalton (2011 - 2nd), Russell Wilson (2012 -3rd), Kirk Cousins (2012 - 4th), Mike Glennon (2013 - 4th), and Derrick Carr (2014 - 2nd). The biggest take away from these numbers is that drafting a first round QB guarantees nothing. Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Andrew Luck are all perfect examples of how much at the mercy of competent support from FO and coaching even good/great QBs are: all of these QBs have suffered at times in their careers from poor FO support and coaching. Those who think that all the Bills need to do to start winning is to draft a first round QB in 2018 are likely in for a rude awakening. It will take more than that. Much more.

Agree on both points. For believers that every OC or DC should have the right to put "his guys" and "his system" into action on "his team" consider that the Broncos also have a new coaching staff. The Donkeys' DC has been a 4-3 guy but guess what -- Denver's running a 3-4 because they aren't so stupid that they're going to kick Von Miller and/or his merry band of defensive terrorizers to the curb for some JAGs and/or draft picks ... and the Donkeys' OC has created his offensive "system" to fit Trevor Siemian's strengths. The Donkeys also upgraded their OL IIRC in order to improve their run game.

No, we "can't all just agree we are a QB away from the playoffs" because it's simply not true. "We" -- the Bills -- lack a FO with the will/desire/competence/interest (take your pick of one, some or maybe take all of them) to get the Bills into the playoffs. They've been proving that for 18 years. "We" -- the Bills -- lack a coaching staff capable of running any kind of modern offense. Ever hear the song, "Lost in the Fifties"? That describes the Bills offensive "system". More happy thoughts: The Bills QB isn't the real problem. Taylor's certainly capable of getting a team to the playoffs with some help ... like a defense which he didn't have last season and an NFL caliber OC which he doesn't have this season. The OL's struggles with the new blocking system installed by OC Rick Dennison is a major problem with the offense. QBs need protection when they pass. RBs need holes to run through. The Bills OL isn't pass protecting or run blocking adequately. After TC, preseason, and now 2 games, that the OL is still struggling says something's amiss: lack of talent, players unsuited for the scheme, poor coaching. Again, pick one or all. Also of concern is the ages of both C Eric Wood and LG Richie Incognito, both on the wrong side of thirty, and nobody on the roster likely to develop into players as good as those two. The Bills don't have an NFL caliber WR corps after sending Hogan East to NE last off season and Watkins, Woods, and Goodwin West to LA and SF this past off season. Behind McCoy, there's nobody to pick up the slack if he gets nicked. If he were to suffer any kind of serious injury, the Bills running game would be DOA because Mike Gillislee is hoping to win a SB ring with the Pats this season like Hogan did last year. The Bills do have decent TEs led by Charles Clay. The Bills do have what looks like a good defense. Unfortunately, Kyle Williams is 34 and may retire soon and it looks like the Bills are going to send Dareus packing rather than pay him. They have nobody else at DT to replace the talent if those two are gone. Several other key members of the front seven are getting "long in the tooth", too. The secondary has some decent pieces, but again, the best talent from the Bills secondary is now on other teams, most notably NE. At best, they're very thin.

Of course. QBs need targets, and Taylor doesn't have anybody but Clay and Matthews. Robey-Coleman might have been the star of the show if not for all the fireworks from Watkins and Woods. Oh, and BTW, Mike Gillislee rushed 18 times for 69 yards and a TD which is the same number of yards and 1 more TD than all the Bills runners in the Carolina game. Chris Hogan also grabbed 5 of Brady's passes for 78 yards and a TD in the same game. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a young QB doing well for the Bills next season, although I supposed whoever they draft will start because the fans will need some excitement. The Bills OL line struggles more in pass protection than it did last year, and except for Glenn, the other starters are either old or unproven or turnstiles. The Bills WR corps isn't NFL caliber, and maybe not even as good as some college WR groups. The RBs are all 28 or 29, which is old for RBs. The offensive coaching isn't up to HS standards.

Oh, whoopty doo! Is that the Bills new motto? "We're not the worst!!!"? Give them time. My guess is this week's game will be another one without a TD. That Denver offense is nasty. Then the Falcons will have a go at them.

Yeah, I'm pessimistic. I'm also sick of the Bills throwing their best players to the curb and seeing them go on to become stars for other teams. If it happend once or twice, you can say "that's the result of FA" but it's happened over and over again to the Bills since 2001. How is McDermott all that different from Jauron except for being somewhat more animated? How is trading away Watkins all that different from trading away Jason Peters? How is letting Stephon Gilmore walk in FA all that different from letting Antoine Winfield walk in FA? All I've seen in the way of improvement from the people running the Bills is a recognition that maybe a having a good LT is somewhat important ... although now that Whaley's gone, the Bills may very well revert to the advanced offensive thinking demonstrated by Jauron and Company: any big dude can play LT.

That would be too simple. It takes real skill to pull that off ... just as it takes real skill to be unable to build a team good enough to at least make the playoffs once in 18 years. The Bills, of course, have perfected the FO and coaching skills to do both ... which is why it's both very funny and very sad to listen to so many diehard fans so hopeful that the Bills are going to get it right with this latest iteration of the Perpetual Rebuild of the Championship Caliber Team that Never Was. Except they didn't. Moreover, Matthews and Taylor can't because they play in an offense that would embarrass many high school football teams ... and maybe even some Pop Warner teams. They've both been set up to fail by the Bills suppposed "brain trust". The rookie QB that the Bills draft in the first round next year is unlikely to fair any better than Taylor or Manuel or Losman even if he's got Aaron Rodgers talent. BTW, the Bills played a team supposedly worse than the Niners in the Jests ... and neither Matthews nor Taylor had "huge games".

That's because Manuel was NEVER as good a QB prospect as Goff. Goff was the first player taken in the 2016. Manuel was the best QB in the awful 2013 QB class and never should have been drafted in the first round at all. He was so good that the Bills dropped down several slots and he was still available. Like with Losman, they probably could have waited until the second or third round and still had him. Obviously, you didn't watch last night's game ... or you're in denial as to what you saw. Sammy may very well become a potential HOFer, especially now that he's been freed from the Neanderthal offensive concepts of the Bills coaching staff. The Bills LOVE to trade away All Pros and potential HOFers for the equivalent of used athletic supporters just like they did when they sent Jason Peterson and Marshawn Lynch packing for a JAG center and a career reserve LB and a career reserve RT. The Bills had "real reasons , actually good reasons for punting" these guys, too. At least according to the Bills FO and its diehard true believers. The Bills are a joke around the NFL and that's of their own making ... as Al Michaels' quip about NE having better Bills players than the Bills has already been applied to LA. It will likely be applied again to whatever team scoops up Dareus either before the trade deadline or in the off-season.

He's a talented player that the Bills gave away for a song because they didn't want to pay him, and he sparkled last night for the team that was willing to take him with his current salary and likely his much larger salary next year ... His foot injury and concussion are tied together only by fans attempting to rationalize yet another stupid move by the Bills "brain trust". It was only short-sighted if you believe the Bills are interested in truly building a winning football game. IMO, the Bills FO isn't. They're only interested in doing enough to keep the seats full so that the $$ continue to flow into the Pegulas' coffers. I have no doubt that the Bills will draft a QB in the first round in 2018, but expecting them to go out and provide that kid with protection and targets not to mention a coaching staff interested in the offense as more than a necessary evil, well, good luck with that. Offensive players tend to be more expensive than defensive ones, but the QB will be cheap enough on his rookie contract. The Bills will "get our young guy in the Spring" only because they're going to draft a QB in the first round in 2018 whether he's a particularly good prospect or not. That's exactly what they did in 2004 with Losman and again in 2013 with Manuel. But, hey, third time's a charm, right? With the Bills' innovative offensive coaching and great wide receiver corps, how could any young QB NOT turn out to be at least as good as Aaron Rodgers, right?

Pardon me. Two special teamers -- for other teams -- for an All Pro RB. That's the Bills way. No wonder the Bills haven't made the playoffs in this century ... and aren't likely to make them any time in the foreseeable future, either. Maybe you should have waited a while longer. I understand perfectly. The Bills didn't want to pay Watkins. Not this year, not next year. They don't need or want fast, game breaking WRs with sure hands because the genius offensive minded coaches the Bills continue to hire like offenses that were passe fifty years ago ... but carry on. Maybe in another half century, the pendulum will swing back to the era before the forward pass and the Bills will get their "championship caliber team" they've spent this entire century not building. More like a dozen of those 'one plays'. Watkins will probably become an All Pro like Peters and Lynch, and the true believers will continue to bleat about "they didn't want to be here anyways" so no great loss. Personally, I don't think the Bills are capable of building a good O since they don't believe in paying WRs or RBs or OGs. I'm not sure that they believe in paying QBs either, since they've never been able to actually draft and develop a good one.

I totally agree. CTE might have very well been a contributing factor in Hernandez's suicide, but the link between his playing in the NFL and CTE is limited I think. He only played in 38 games in three seasons, 2010-2012. He was allegedly involved in gang activity before he became an NFL player, and he was involved in gang activity while an NFL player. He also played HS and collegiate football. Finally, he may have also been in fights while in prison. He could have suffered concussions during any or all of those activities. There's no way to tell when CTE began to affect him -- or if it had, Maybe his suicide was linked to CTE but it might just have easily have been simply his inability to face life in prison. At least suicide is a recognized danger for individuals who suffer from CTE. Premediated murder involving the drug trade isn't. I don't think there's evidence to support your last statement. Everything that I've heard/read about CTE (I have a brother who suffers from it because of a car wreck) is that it's much more likely to impair a person's judgement than to make him a murderer, which is what Hernandez was convicted of IIRC. A person suffering from CTE might very well be dangerous, but it's because he/she might fly into a rage or maybe become paranoid but he/she is unlikely to be moved to murder a couple people in order to further his/her drug business by CTE. Maybe you could say that CTE might have lessened whatever inhibitions Hernandez had about murdering someone but I don't see how anybody could prove that. Hernandez wasn't a choir boy, although he originally had that image.

Bull manure! I don't remember anybody on the Bills in recent years that has been guilty of truly bad behavior off the field. There have been some drug violations, some PED violations, some stupid behavior, and some regrettable incidents, but nothing that's truly or deliberately vicious, violent, perverted or pathologically criminal. These are mostly twenty-something guys cut loose from two major restraints that force most twenty-something males to behave reasonably well: limited financial means and censure from parents, other family, friends, etc. They're going to get into trouble because it's what young people do. Because they're local celebs, they're gonna get their names in the news when they do it. Have any of the Bills been accused of rape? Of child abuse? Of killing someone? Of selling dope? Of robbing a bank? Of spousal abuse/assault? I think the biggest/ugliest incident was Shady's involvement in that nasty bar fight in Philly where a couple of people were seriously injured, but he wasn't charged in that. I'm not sure that anyone was. It seems to me that when the Bills have nattered on about character in the past, they were using code for "we're going to chuck talented players in favor of JAGs who cost a lot less and use 'character issues' as the excuse for doing it." I hope the current regime isn't going down that same road, but usually when something looks like a duck and quacks like a duck and swims like a duck, it is, in fact, a duck.

BINGO!!! A new QB isn't going to help this offense. A rookie QB put into this pile of poop is destined for failure from the get-go. I don't know if Brady or Peyton in their primes would look anything but average in this offense. Maybe it was cutting edge back in 1967 but it's simply not 21st century NFL caliber in concept or design. It's only going to change, if it changes at all, with a new OC and that probably means a new HC, and given the way the Bills operate, that will mean starting the newest iteration of the Perpetual Rebuild of the Championship Caliber team that never was.

Gailey was an offensive coach. Unfortunately he didn't know/care much about defense and left that up to his less than scintillating DCs which was too bad because he did a lot with the very limited offensive talent he had because -- shock of shocks! -- he adapted his offensive schemes to fit what the players he did have did best. None of the others have been offensive minded coaches, and one was new to being a HC in the NFL, one was a buffoon who probably made his reputation as a defensive genius on Mike Pettine's coattails, and the third appears to be the spiritual godson of Dick Jauron. Maybe they thought/think audibles were/are dirty words or they were sleeping during those coaching meetings when they were discussed.

ROTFLMAO!!! "PFFELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent." It's obviously not whether you kicked your opponent's arse or got handed your own or how great or awful you looked in either earning either result but how you played compared to how you were expected to play. TOO.STUPID.TO.BE.TRUE.

Well, I'm sure that the Bills can find some team in need of a good LT to take him and his contract off their hands for a couple of day 3 picks and not have any cap implications at all. Maybe then Vlad Ducasse can flip over to the left side and slide outside to keep the Bills shiny new franchise QB from being trampled too badly in his rookie season.

No, no, no! It's totally ridiculous to dare compare the Bills offensive offense against Carolina to Jauron's great offensive offenses. After all, McDermott went for a first down on 4th and 1 at mid-field so they're NOTHING alike! //sarcasm off Y'know, you may be fine with another iteration of the never ending rebuild of the championship caliber team that never was and never will be, but after 18 years, I'm pretty sick of it. I have no patience left any more. There is no light at the end of the tunnel with the Bills. McDermott will be out in three years or maybe even less, and the perpetual rebuild will return to square one with another has-been, neophyte, buffoonish incompetent running the show. Alexander is 32 or something, and Hughes 29. On the offensive side, all the RBs are 29 or older. DiMarco the FB is 28. On the OL, Wood is 30 and Incognito is 34. That's beside the point that the Bills don't have an NFL caliber WR corps. The idea that drafting a franchise QB in the first round will put the Bills on the fast track to the Super Bowl within a couple of years is ludicrous. Most of the starters need to be upgraded or replaced in the near future. That's even assuming that the QB the Bills draft in 2018 doesn't turn out to be another Losman or Manuel.

That's probably because they didn't watch the Carolina game. Well, that was probably the stadium name the last time an over-confident team came into town and got their asses handed to them.

This is EXACTLY what Bills fans said about the Jason Peters trade in 2009 and the Marshawn Lynch trade in 2011 ... and the stout defenders of the brainiacs who've orchestrated the Bills incompetency for the entire 21st century crowed like roosters whenever Peters or Lynch had the slightest miscue ... until they were named All Pros. After all, it's SOOOOO much better to have a JAG center who compliantly agrees to whatever contract the Bills are willing to give him than an All Pro/HOF bound LT who wants to be paid what he's worth, and since RBs are a dime-a-dozen, who needs an All Pro RB, right? Is the guy the Bills used that 4th round draft pick from Marshawn on even still in the league? Marshawn, of course, still is. See above. Maybe that's true for most teams but the Bills too frequently trade players, particularly their best players, for reasons that have nothing to do with how well they can play. Apparently, the two biggest "sins" Bills players can commit are demanding to be paid fairly and criticizing the crappy FO and/or crappy coaching staff. The Bills will go to just about any length to get rid of top players who dare either, as witness Peters, Lynch, and I suspect, Watkins (remember, he did say that he thought WRs should be paid more in general) ... even virtually giving them away. And, of course, the faithful continue to defend these actions because they "trust" the Bills FO to continue its successful efforts to build a team that could win the AFL Championship a third time. Get off your high horse. You ain't the head honcho here. You made a statement as if it were a fact even though it was only your opinion, and an opinion that's based on nothing except your willingness to accept whatever BS the Bills FO puts out to excuse their continued unwillingness to keep talented players. ("X will never sign here" is their absolute favorite BTW.) The poster in question called the statement you made a lie, which probably was a bit strong, but your statement sure wasn't fact. Some folks be more inclined to see things in black and white than in shades of gray. If you didn't want to be called on it, you shouldn't have stated your opinion as if it were a fact.

I think that doesn't just describe Bills fans vis-a-vis the personnel moves but the coaching staff as well. I think that the FO's agenda is simply that they don't want to pay even top players at certain positions, namely DB, RB, and WR. Even the extra money added to Shady's contract is likely to be a joke since it's all incentives which, given the scintillating offense Dennison's put together, he'll likely never reach.