
SoTier
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Why not make a play for AJ McCarron?
SoTier replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It's crazy all right. There hasn't been 6 QBs taken in the first round since the legendary class of 1983 with Elway, Kelly, and Marino. The only class since then that has had 5 QBs was 1999 which yielded McNabb and Culpepper and 3 busts. Four QBs were taken in the first round five times, yielding all of 7 QBs whom most knowledgeable fans would consider "franchise QBs" of various levels. 1983 - John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino 1987 - Vinnie Testaverde, Kelly Stoufer, Chris Miller, and Jim Harbaugh 1999 - Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown 2003 - Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman 2004 - Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman 2011 - Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder 2012 - Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden With the notable exceptions of 1983 and 2004, large QB draft classes don't yield more successful QBs than do QB draft classes with only 1, 2 or 3 first round QBs. Of the 31 QBs taken in these large draft classes, only 13 were successful, including several whom Bills fans would likely have been disappointed with if they'd played for the Bills. The number of QBs in the class is irrelevant. What there has to be is one QB available that the Bills really, really like because they think he's going to be a top QB, not because they want to placate the fans or because they think they need a QB better than the one they have. PS: that none of the QBs in 2018 stands out enough to be the consensus #1 pick says to me that this QB class isn't all that great. I no longer think that Taylor can be "something special" but I think he can be a serviceable starting QB for 2018, especially if the Bills draft a first or second round QB for the future. -
Arians: Best QB Class In 15-20 Years
SoTier replied to Jamie Muellers Ghost's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
If Arians was such a great judge of QBs coming out of college, why didn't he ever find one for his own team? Arians became the Cards' HC in 2013, and since that time, the Cards have drafted exactly 1 QB: Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014 despite the fact that the Cards could have taken Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014 and that Carson Palmer had been in the league for more than 10 years at that time, and has been more susceptible to serious injuries than many other QBs. Sometimes there's no good QBs available when a team needs one, but there were better candidates than Thomas available in 2014, and Cards passed on them. Maybe Arians didn't have a lot of input in whom the Cards drafted, but I wouldn't have a lot of faith in Arians' evaluation of collegiate QBs based on his being a HC. Not all good HCs are good talent evaluators, especially when judging players playing in systems different from the ones they're familiar with. -
I loved Mangold when he came out of college (I think the Bills traded back into the first round to take John McCargo with Mangold still available) but I think that ship has sailed. The Bills need to draft a young center, even with one of their first rounders if there's a really good one available. Groy and a Day 1 or Day 2 rookie > Groy and Mangold for 2018 ... and hopefully for the future.
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Why not make a play for AJ McCarron?
SoTier replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yeah, and Rob Johnson and Matt Flynn both looked great in a single game ... if I had a $1 for every crappy QB in the last 25 years who looked good for a quarter or even an entire game and then sucked when given a chance to be a regular starter, I could have retired a decade earlier. -
Why not make a play for AJ McCarron?
SoTier replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Realistically, good QBs seldom hit FA. Mostly they're back ups, and not necessarily good ones. Cousins is the best FA QB since Peyton was released by Indy. Before that, the best QB to hit FA was Brees. However much some fans may not like it, Taylor may be the best the Bills can do for a veteran QB. Cousins is the only likely FA who would be better, and he's going to command big $$$. Bradford would be better but how long are his gimpy knees going to hold up? The preseason? Half a season? One game? Both Glennon and McKown are career backups. Cutting Taylor and bringing in McCarron is the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face. Taylor is not "the answer" but he's certainly better than McCarron. Maybe the Bills can bring back Thad Lewis ... -
In case you don't realize it, the Bills don't have enough draft picks in the entire 2018 draft to fill all the holes they've created, and that's supposing that they were to hit on every pick, including Day 3 picks, which means they'd have to get replacements in FA, which likely would eat up all the "savings" from jettisoning all those players. Just replacing Taylor would likely cost $10 million for somebody no better plus a significant cap hit, so there'd actually be little savings. Of course, if your aim is for the Bills to actually tank in 2018, your "plan" is probably perfect. A team without a starting QB and an OL isn't likely to win many games. Bull manure. What makes you think that making the playoffs won't make the Pegulas expect more and continuing improvement? Moreover, gutting the team would undermine McDermott's entire "trust the process" mantra with the remaining players. Exactly right. PFF's algorithm for grading OLers has logical flaws, primarily that they assume they can figure out the blocking assignments from film when they actually can't unless they know exactly what play was called and exactly how it was drawn up so they know the blocking assignments. What's incongruous about PFF's grades is that with these good grades from PFF the Bills OL should have played significantly better on a regular basis than it did. The Bills OL didn't play nearly as well as it had in 2016. Famous last words.
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Should we throw Peterman on the trash heap for 1 bad outing?
SoTier replied to Sky Diver's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Shouldn't Peterman have already worked on his arm strength and velocity if he harbored thoughts of playing in the NFL? Sorry, but even though the Bills made the playoffs in 2017, there's no proof that "the process the Bill's are trying to get the team better" actually works. Neither McDermott nor Beane have built a successful team on their own; they've only been part of successful teams built by others. Certainly Peterman's poor performance doesn't inspire confidence in Team McBean. -
Should we throw Peterman on the trash heap for 1 bad outing?
SoTier replied to Sky Diver's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Taylor ran a "pro offense" in 2015 and 2016 when the Bills had an OC who gave the Bills a "pro offense". The "primitive passing offense" was courtesy of Dennison's failings as well as the stupid personnel decisions made by the Bills FO in shipping out all of the Bills starting WRs from 2015 and 2016 as well as letting Gillislee leave, too. -
Should we throw Peterman on the trash heap for 1 bad outing?
SoTier replied to Sky Diver's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
POINT. SET. MATCH. I simply don't understand why so many fans act as if this kid is something more than what he's shown. The guy was a fifth round draft pick for the very basic reason that he lacks most of the physical traits necessary for an NFL QB, and there's no way that he's going to change his arm strength or other physical shortcomings. His ceiling has always been modest backup at best, and he hasn't demonstrated that he's likely to be even that good. -
I think it all depends upon which college QB the Bills like in the draft -- if they like any of them enough to consider trading up -- and if the team thinks it's possible to get to him. In this case, the Bills won't consider Cousins. If they don't like any of the college QBs or if they don't think they can get to him, then maybe Cousins is in play -- if Washington lets him finally walk.
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This might be the crux of the problem. Position coaches teach techniques and run through play assignments. I don't think most design plays or defensive coverages. The overall success of an offensive or defensive unit depends upon how the plays/coverages/schemes are drawn up, which are usually the province of the OC or DC along with the HC.
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Numerous posters who want to get rid of Taylor to save money (as opposed to those who just hate him and want him gone no matter the cost) seem to have no idea of how expensive QB are. A veteran backup QB with minimal competence will probably cost $5+ million a year. A veteran backup QB with better skills is going to cost more. This is why many teams draft Day 2 or 3 QBs as backups and keep them until they done with their rookie contracts which are a whole lot cheaper. A QB who could be a "bridge" QB is probably going to cost as much as Glennon or Taylor if not more (like Smith).
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My point is that scouting -- finding and evaluating prospects -- is much more thorough than it was in the past. QBs with NFL quality arms and other good physical attributes are going to be drafted even if they go to smaller programs or even to Div II schools (like Flacco). Actually, Warner and Romo, who were UDFAs when they came out (Warner 20+ years ago, Romo 12+ years ago), would likely have been drafted today, even if on Day 3, although generally QBs with NFL arms go on Day 1 and Day 2.
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Potential replacements for Eric Wood
SoTier replied to The Now Moment's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I totally agree. They need to take at least one OLer on Day 1 or 2 and at least one or more on Day 3. They need to bring in a bunch of UDFAs, too. -
Bills still making Bad Contract decisions
SoTier replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I will agree that the Bills write bad contracts, but my problem isn't players getting injured. How come other teams manage to pay several premier players at the same time and still manage to keep several of their home-grown vets coming off their rookie contracts but the Bills "can't afford" to keep most of the good young vets they develop even though they aren't paying for a premier QB and pass rusher? That should be what chaps Bills fans' butts not that the Bills gave a contract to solid player who then suffered a career ending injury. BTW, Wood was 30 or 31 which is not all that "old" for an OLer who often play into their mid thirties and beyond. -
That's all part of not putting winning ahead of profits. The Bills could have had their QB last year but they needed to replace Gilmore ... and don't forget that they also used a second on Zay Jones since they let both Woods and Goodwin go, too. Since the late 1990s, they've used an inordinate number of first and second round draft picks to replace the DBs, WRs, and RBs that they didn't re-sign after their rookie contracts. White is a very nice player, and maybe neither Mahomes nor Watson develop into franchise QBs but they needed a QB in 2017, had an opportunity to take one, and passed on all of them until Day 3. Now, they're exactly where they were last year at this time, only they have the 21st pick rather than the 10th.
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Gilmore is now beloved in NE (Yahoo Article)
SoTier replied to BigDingus's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Dead on! If Mahomes or Watson go on to become a franchise QB and the Bills fail again to get one of their own, then allowing Gilmore to walk away and replacing him with Tre White may be one of the costliest deals the Bills have ever made ... only time will tell. -
Maybe if the Bills put winning ahead of profits, they'd develop a coherent policy/program in regards to drafting/retaining talent and wouldn't be signing and then cutting veterans.
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Bills still making Bad Contract decisions
SoTier replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I agree completely. My complaint with the Bills is that they spend so much draft capital replacing the young vets that they let walk that they don't have enough left to draft and develop young talent in hard to fill positions like OL or QB. I'm not going to complain about the Bills extending solid veterans since that's an improvement over how they've operated in the past. -
Bills still making Bad Contract decisions
SoTier replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm not going to argue that the Bills didn't/don't need an upgrade at center because I agree that they have needed that for a while. I have been arguing since last summer that the interior of the Bills OL needs upgrading and/or better depth because of age and talent level not to mention how frequently OLers get hurt, as Glenn has shown. That Wood was never as good a center as Glenn was a left tackle doesn't mean he wasn't worth extending. There may have not been any better options either on the team or available on the FA market. His deal might very well be the going rate for a starting NFL center. My argument is simply that complaining that Wood's contract was "bad" because of his injury is nothing more than hindsight. -
Bills still making Bad Contract decisions
SoTier replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Wood's contract is only a "bad contract" because he can't play football. Would it have been "bad contract" if it wasn't a long-standing condition but a game injury like what happened to Ryan Shazier? Maybe the Bills medical staff should have been more thorough but I don't know that teams are necessarily going to do MRIs, xrays, etc if the player hasn't had a history of a specific injury or complaints about pain. It's just one of those "manure happens" situations. -
I don't follow college football, so I don't know if there was some reason for Prescott to fall to fourth round, but I think it's still a little early to declare Prescott a "success" on the same level or better as the Cowgirls' QB he replaced, Tony Romo.
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Wilson went in round 3. That's not "late rounds". It's Day 2 ... and Wilson's physical limitation was his height, or more precisely, his lack of it. If he'd been 6'2 or so, he'd have gone in the Top 5. NFL GMs want big, tall QBs so they take chances on lesser prospects like Osweiler (6'7 or 6'8) early but leave short guys like Brees or Wilson or slightly built guys like Cousins to languish.
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Totally agree. When a QB from North Dakota State goes #2 in the draft, that means that the scouts are not only scouring the hinterlands, they aren't letting any potential Tom Bradys slip through the cracks like they may have done twenty years ago. These days, a kid who goes in the late rounds is seriously lacking in the physical attributes necessary for an NFL QB, so he's not even a decent bet to make a "solid backup".
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You are not going to convince the diehards that Peterman is a dud. Hell, his own incompetence won't even convince some of them that he's not pro material. If the Bills drafted him, they must have seen his "potential" because the Bills have demonstrated their unerring ability to find "QB diamonds in the rough".