SoTier

Nailed it, dude!!!

Exactly this. I've been a Bills fan since 1963 but this team appears to be built to be a clone of the play-not-to-lose-by-too-much teams of 2008-2009 fielded by Dick Jauron. I gave up my seasons after the 2008 season when Jauron was rehired. I don't think that this Bills team can be as epically bad as the Bills teams of the most of the 1970s and 1980s only because in the salary cap era, talent is more spread out, although Beane and McDermott have done their best to dilute much of what the Bills had. I'm not going to waste my time this fall watching this latest version of the Bills flounder around on field, out-coached and out-classed talent-wise. My guess is that what we saw from the first team in the third preseason game is simply a foreshadowing of what the regular season will look like. Teams that don't play well in preseason seldom play better in the regular season. I got NFL Sunday ticket so that I can specifically follow Seattle and any other team that's in an interesting game ... as well as follow the Rams to see how Sammy does. I wouldn't be surprised if he scores more TDs himself this season than the Bills score passing TDs.

Jests 6-3. Despite only having 2 completed passes, the Jests still win on a Bills miscue on the 16th punt of the game late in the game that gives them the ball inside the Bills ten. Deja vue all over again.

Keep telling yourself that there's "no anti Whaley vendetta in the works here" and it's not cronyism ... even though cutting Jonathan Williams is ANOTHER move that makes no sense ... even though Vlad Ducasse has never, ever been more than a bad right guard since his rookie season as a Jest ... even though "Zay and Trey" are "McDermott guys" ... Keep reminding yourself of the "important foundation statement" that Beane and McDermott have made while watching the crappy, boring play-not-to-lose-by-too-much team they put on the field this season and as long as they last in B-lo. I've said before that McDermott seemed too similar to Dick Jauron to like him, and now I'm convinced they truly are soul mates. I can easily see mind-numbing 6-3/12-6 puntfest losses in the Bills future.

IMO, that's exactly what "cronyism" is ... putting friends and family before more talented "strangers". Everybody engages in it. Everybody. It's human nature to put trust in people we know over people we don't. It's nice that Beane and McDermott have risen up the NFL career ladder but that alone doesn't make them "better" than anybody else. The Bills have taken "shots at it". They traded for Bledsoe in 2002. They drafted JP Losman in the first in 2004. They drafted Trent Edwards in 2007. They used their first pick on EJ Manuel in 2013. The problem the Bills have had is not that they haven't taken shots, it's that they took them at the wrong targets. Drafting for need is a losing proposition, and that's especially so for QBs. If there's no great QB prospect available when it's your turn to pick, don't settle for whoever is available! The Bills did that in 2004, when Roethlisberger was gone, and again in 2013 when there was nobody worth taking. In most years, there might be one franchise QB available in the draft. The trick is to find him because sometimes he's not the first pick off the board. Ask NE and Seattle. In 2009, the Bills had two firsts and two seconds. Only Eric Wood stuck with the team past his rookie contract, and while he's a decent C, he's not one of the best in the league. Aaron Maybin was a bust. Jairus Byrd and Andy Levitre were decent players that the Bills let go to other teams after their rookie contracts. Having lots of picks doesn't help a team much if it doesn't pick well or it doesn't keep the players it develops. In the Bills case, they haven't picked particularly well, and they regularly let the best players they do pick go to other teams. Maybe Beane and McDermott will do better in the draft, but I doubt that they will do better keeping their own talent. I don't think that decision is really theirs to make.

Significantly cheaper than Watkins.

Well said!

Good post, and I mostly agree. My take on the Bills drafting Manuel in the first is a bit different. It was only a "reach" because they were determined to draft a QB in the first round, and there just weren't any ones worth a first in that draft. I think that they understood Manuel wasn't a first round talent but they wanted a first round QB to put butts in the seats. Remember, that was when Ralph Wilson was dying, and Russ Brandon was running the team. They had "cleared the decks" of all QBs in February or March by releasing both Fitzpatrick and Tavaris Jackson, and literally had no QB until they signed the reliably accident prone Kevin Kolb who conveniently didn't even make it to the first preseason game IIRC. The motivation to take Manuel in the first was really the same one that motivated the Bills to pick Losman in 2004 when he likely would have lasted into the second or even the third round, and if he didn't, Matt Schaub would have been available and a better choice anyways. My guess is that 2018 will resemble 2013 in that the Bills have already decided to draft a QB in the first round even if there's not one worth drafting available. The DBs as a unit have been a "revolving door" since the Bills let former 1999 first round draft pick Antoine Winfield walk away in FA. He was followed by Nate Clements who also left for Minnesota a few years later. Jabari Greer was an UDFA who became a good starting CB and then left to help New Orleans win a Super Bowl. Donte Whitner, another first rounder, was good enough to become a Pro Bowler with the 49ers during their last playoff years when they fielded a serious defensive team. Gilmore just joins the long line of good/great Bills DBs whom the team won't pay to keep, preferring to create another hole that the team fills with a first round pick in the next draft instead of adding talent where the team actually needs more. BTW, WR and RB are also revolving doors for talent for the Bills. When you look back at the first two rounds of all the drafts since 2000, what stands out is how many times the Bills used first or second picks on WR or RBs ... and how often those players, when successful, left or were shipped out to find more success with other teams.

You can give them a chance if you want, but I'm done with patience. I.AM.SICK.OF.LOSING. I'm 67 years old, so I actually remember what the "Glory Years" Bills were like. I also remember the crappy, uncompetitive teams the Bills fielded during most of the 1970s and 1980s, including the ones that went zero for the 1970s against the Miami Carp. While the league has changed since adoption of FA, the Bills haven't changed their pattern of managing player personnel to maximize team profit since at least 2001. The kinds of moves that have been made this off-season are simply echoes of the moves made by previous regimes over the last 17 year, which suggests that OBD's "new regime" is following the same losing pattern all the loser "old regimes" followed. Names and faces have changed but the crappy 21st century Bills remain the crappy 21st century Bills ... closer to the awful 1970s Bills than the great 1990s Bills. McDermott and Jauron are apparently soul mates when it comes to offensive vision.

They blew everything up because by starting over from scratch, they give themselves 3-5 years of continued sucking ... just like they've done repeatedly over the last 17 years.

Once upon a time, I thought the Bills might win 8 or even 9 games. After the great moves they've made and the sterling performances they've put up in preseason, I'm thinking that unless the D is top five, and can be one of the leaders in TOs, they'll be lucky to win 4 games. If the defense doesn't play as strongly as it looked in preseason, they'll win fewer. I'm figuring the offense might score 10 passing TDs all season, and in at least 6 games, the offense is going to fail to score any kind of TD. If the Bills secondary isn't as good as it's look in preseason, then there will likely be several 35-3 or 51-6 games since the Bills face some seriously good passing offenses this season. Maybe the Bills can split with the Jests but I wouldn't count on it. This team is that bad.

All NFL teams make a profit because of the TV money. By allowing top players who would command high salaries as FA to walk away, trading away players with expensive current salaries, and replacing both with rookies and lower quality vets, the Bills increase their profit. I'm beginning to think that the Bills continuously hiring new coaching staffs that have to change schemes ever few years is a strategy to make getting rid of expensive players more palatable to fans so that they continue to buy tickets.

Really? Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Ruben Brown, Pat Williams, Jabari Greer, Willis McGahee, Jason Peters, Donte Whitner, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Hogan, and now Stephon Gilmore all say "Hi."

LOL. Seriously? "Should be fine"? If they score 10 passing TDs, that will be a lot. My guess is 6 games without an offensive TD. So, their offensive strategy will be to pray that the D and the ST can score some points. The ghost of Dick Jauron returns to B-lo. I can't wait for the 12-6 and 6-3 TD-less losses to fellow bottom feeders!

Really? Have you checked who the Bills have available to play QB? I wouldn't be surprised if Watkins caught more TD passes this season than the entire Bills receiving corps. That doesn't mean I think Watkins will necessarily light up the league, but that I think if the Bills score 10 passing TDs this season, that will be a lot. The Bills passing offense is non-existence and looks to remain so. And some here just like to believe that the clowns at OBD drive are even interested in building a winning football team, so they keep making excuses for them letting go or shipping out good players.

Keep telling yourself that. The Bills had the 4th overall pick in 2002 and it didn't lead to anything special. The Bills had the 3rd overall pick in 2011 and that didn't change their losing ways, either. In 2004 and 2013 they drafted first round QBs, both of whom busted. In 2009, they had a cartload of draft picks, too: 2 firsts and 2 seconds IIRC. They picked the great Aaron Maybin with their first pick. The reality is that the Bills drafting has sucked ... and that they've fired old scouts and hired new ones means nothing. They could have been victims/beneficiaries of the regime change. So, why the hell should anybody think that the current regime, which has done the same kind of $$$-motivated personnel moves previous failed regimes have made and has fielded as inept an offensive unit as any that Dick Jauron ever put on the field, is going to produce anything but another loser that will set up the team for more losing seasons into the foreseeable future?

Agreed. I was hopeful early on, but the more I see of the new regime, the more I'm convinced they're as bad as the worst of the previous regimes, ie, the Brandon-Levy-Jauron triumvirate. The names change but the organization's lack of interest in winning football games remains the same.

I think "a coach being incompetent" is more accurate.

I totally agree. Anybody who's watched other teams' third preseason games can easily see how bad the Bills are even if they won't admit. The 2017 Bills are reminiscent of the worst of Jauron's teams ... and maybe even as bad as the utterly uncompetitive of teams from the late1970s or the mid/late 1980s. They are pathetic.

Excellent post, mjt. I will add 2 points to what you said. Belichick, when he was HC in Cleveland and DC in New York, also got an awful lot out of whatever talent he had to work with because he devised offenses/defenses to fit his players' strengths. Remember, the Giants that beat the Bills in the Super Bowl, did so with a backup QB and a stout defense. The offense in preseason bears a sickening resemblance to the great offenses that Jauron put on the field ... you remember the epic ones that lost 6-3 to Cleveland and 12-6 to the Niners at home? (//sarcasm off for the literally minded folks). Well, here we go again. I peg the over under for games where the Bills offense fails to score a TD at 6 myself. My take on the situation that the Bills have been in for the past 17 years and look to still be mired in is that, yes, it is the coaches, but who hires the coaches? The suits in the FO, be that Russ Brandon or the ownership, have to take responsibility for hiring HCs who want/allow/insist on running their own schemes whether or not they fit the players. If they have a good defense -- as they had in 2014 -- then why hire a HC who wants to use another scheme that is likely to make most of your defense uncomfortable? There were no other candidates out there who favored the 3-4 defense? Maybe they weren't buffoons enough? Why was McDermott, who had only been a DC not a HC, given a blank slate to bring in an OC and position coaches who radically change the offense? The Bills couldn't have found another first time HC willing to build on the solid foundation the offense had??? In IT, most programmers/system administrators/managers subscribe to the maxim, "don't fix what ain't broke". The Bills need to adopt that saying as their mantra and hire in accordance with it.

And the Bills do? They passed on Marino to take Kelly in 1983 which might have been a mistake if you believe that Marino was a better QB than Kelly. They definitely missed on Losman in 2004 and Manuel in 2013. They passed on both Wilson and Cousins in 2012. The Jests, OTOH, took Ken O'Brien in 1983 and Chad Pennington in 2000. Neither were HOFers but both were decent enough QBs,and Pennington was certainly better than any QB not named Jim Kelly that the Bills have drafted since the merger. LOL. The Bills screwed the pooch in 2004,which produced 3 great QBs and 1 decent one, and sat out 2012 when again 4 franchise caliber QBs were available. ^^^ Well, it was supposed to be back in 2012, though. There was supposed to be a new era of great collegiate QBs flooding the NFL. After all, 4 QBs went in the first 12 picks in 2011 and 4 more in the first round in 2012, and 2012 first round rookies Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III took their teams to the playoffs as did third round rookie, Russell Wilson. 2011 2nd rounder Andy Dalton took the Bengals to the playoffs as both a rookie and a sophomore, and it looked like the Vikings had a keeper in 2011 first rounder Christian Ponder who took them to the playoffs as a sophomore. That's in addition to the heroics of 2011 sophomores Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles. Of course, when the dust settled, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton were the only first or second round QBs to last from 2011, and the best QB from the 2012 draft was third rounder Wilson followed by Luck, Cousins, and Tannehill. All the others crashed and burned.

You can start your counting of the playoff-less seasons with the Pegulas if you wish, but don't try to tell me where I should start my count! My guess is that there's not much difference between Wilson's ownership and the Pegulas' because Russ Brandon is still running the show, which he has done since at least 2006. McDermott is the same kind of modestly credentialed HC that Jauron, Gailey, and Marrone were. Beane's resume is simiilarly limited, and my guess is that he's little more than a figurehead ... since the Bills hired McDermott before they bothered to hire him. The wholesale departure of talent this off-season, beginning with Gilmore, as well as the trades with KC and LA, suggests the same kind of scheme to minimize personnel costs while selling the fans crap disguised as hope that was the hallmark of the Bills from 2006 through 2014. The team that the Bills have fielded in preseason is eerily reminiscent of the crappy, penalty-laden teams the Bills fielded under Jauron. Even in the third preseason game, the offense can't get out of its own way. Maybe you haven't bothered to watch other teams in their third games but I have. The 2017 Bills look like a sandlot team compared to even the San Francisco 49ers. That's how bad they are. Of course, the Bills have looked that bad before, but they've still managed to win 5 or 6 or 7 games. My guess is that they'll win 4 or 5 games because the defense is decent, but even if they win 7 by some miracle, they'll still take a QB in the first round so that they'll have some more hope to sell to fans. You can believe the Bills FO has changed, but I'll believe it only when I see it, and from where I sit, it looks like the playoff drought will continue indefinitely.

I seriously doubt that your feelings about winning and losing reflect the attitude of the Bills management. If they cared as much about winning as you obviously do (from this and other posts), this team would have more to show for the last 17 years than two winning seasons ... and 9-7 winning seasons at that.

No, we're seeing the result of the fundamental incompetence of the Bills organization, despite the change in ownership. The organization is run like some kind of 19th century political machine under the spoils system where the current regime brings in all its cronies and favorites. When the current "leaders" get booted out, the new regime leaders turns out the old and brings in its own cronies and favorites. Rinse, repeat. The Bills have been doing this for 17 years at least. They don't really care about building a winning team; they care about employing their pals, and as long as fans keep buying their songs and dances, they'll keep shoveling the manure ... all the way to the bank.

Of course, the Bills couldn't possibly hire a coaching staff that might just happen to want run a defense similar to the previous regime's successful one. It's not rocket science that if Marrone/Schwartz had success with a 4-3 scheme, then many, if not most, of the defensive veterans on the team are probably best suited to playing the 4-3.