freddyjj

In any season there are some unforeseen circumstances that pop up and can really impact any teams performance. Some are obvious like losing your starting franchise QB. Others are less obvious, and I call them "gotchas". So, that being said, here are my potential less obvious 2018 "gotchas"for the Bills. i will skip QB and WR as they have been addressed ad nauseum. Trent Murphy's injury status worsens and he goes to IR and our DE situation and pass rush don't improve. Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Stafford, Cousins, Luck, Flacco and Watson are a scary bunch or QBs if given time. LeSean McCoy loses more than 2 games to a suspension. Coupled with his usual 2 games missed due to injury we could be looking at an 800 yd rushing season from Shady. I actually like an Ivory/Murphy grouping as his backups but feel Shady in Daboll's offense could be special - think a bigger faster Dion Lewis. Shady - stay healthy and out of trouble please. Our Nickel package gets victimized with the 2 LBs on the field in passing downs. Edmunds is gifted physically but needs to learn the game and improve on tackling in space as evidenced in Carolina game. A Humber/Milano WLB combo can be run at if Milano is in there and Humber has apparently lost a step in coverage. I don't see another Bill able to start at WLB and play in the nickle too. Could still see a trade here as crucial role in McDs D. DT if Kyle or Star get hurt. Right back where we were last year with the only upside being Harrison Philips. Not seeing Adolphus Washington improving yet. Outside CB depth still an issue. Vontae Davis needs to show he can cover AND tackle. He looked a little off against the Cats. Right now I wonder if Frasier moves gaines outside for White/Davis if hurt and puts T Johnson at Slot. Swing Tackle? My guess is D'ondre Wesley earns this role and Newhouse and McDermott get cut. We also need a better 4th OT on this team as no depth at OT. McBeane may look for a waiver wire pickup or trade here too. What say you? These may seem like small issues but they can be compounded by actions by OBD, suspensions or injuries.

I voted yes as we have an over 30 blindside rusher in Hughes and 2 question marks in Murphy (injury history) and Shaq (Injury and slow get off) at other DE spot. Back in 2014 draft I was convinced our trading up to #4 spot was to get mack, not Watkins. My disappointment was only exceeded by 2012 draft when we traded up in Rd 3 to grab TJ Graham when I was sure it was for Russel Wilson. We can address the 2014 wrong by getting Mack back now. Would definitely help our league worst sack totals on defense.

The NFL has changed dramatically in the last 25 years since the Bills were last dominant. Back in the late 80's, early 90's it seems like the good teams had 3 all - world players at QB, RB and WR: Back in the day: Bills: Kelly, Reed, Thomas - all HOFers 'Boys: Aikman, Irvin, Smith - all HOFers 49ers: Montana/Young, Rice/TO, Craig - All but Craig in HOF Broncos: Elway, Sharp/Smith, Davis - all but Davis in HOF Today's NFL: Steelers have the closest thing in Big Ben, Laveon Bell and Antonio Bryant as all 3 could make HOF It seems today that NE has 2/3 in Brady/Gronk as the RB position is a roulette wheel in their offense. New Orleans has Brees, Kamara/Ingram, and Michael Thomas - but only Brees is making HOF ATL has Ryan, Jones and their two headed RB attack (Coleman and Freeman) Do you think the platooning of RBs in the league today (as opposed to the old 350-400 carry bell cow) is responsible? Or is it all the rule changes favoring the passing game (5000 yd passers, receivers with >100 receptions) that is responsible? I look at the NFL draft and the salaries for RB1s and say that the whole position is de-emphasized save for the few who can run and catch (Johnson, Bell, McCoy, Kamara). It appears the new rules NFL makes having a set of Triplets unnecessary as long as your team can still throw the ball. What are your thoughts?

maybe the MJ was in the brownie!?

I like the simplicity in comparing personnel. A couple things jump out: The change in OC and the change at QB will determine the real outcome in 2018. Less predictable and a faster paced passing offense should help rankings and produce more points. A power run game for 16 weeks also makes more sense given the personnel. At WR in 2017 we did not have KB for most of the year and when he played he was very limited as hurt upon arrival. Turns out Zay was also dinged up and played hurt all year so those 2 guys should be better in 2018. Kerley is a solid move the chains target in 2018 where we really had none in 2018. At O-Line there are 3 major changes. Ducasse to LG is a huge transition and one that he may not be able to make. He lacks the quickness that Richie has and is not as powerful either. Miller needs to be better than 2016 at RG and Groy needs to be the stalwart on the inside to keep pressure out of QBs face. So in the end I will take the 2018 offense as it should be more diverse and productive. The QB, WR and OL talent will be less than average in the league and that concerns me.

Adolphus had to play 1 technique last year and is not large or strong enough to play there. This year he will be asked to play the 3 technique exclusively behind Kyle. At Ohio State he was a DE who moved inside after a year. might be an ideal 5 technique and if he doesn't pan out at the 3 spot could be traded to a 3-4 team.

In 2006 i was flying SW from BUF to CHI Midway to connect to STL where I was to be part of a committee of interviewers for our company as we expanded operations. As I went to sit down I noticed a smaller, elderly man with an old school hard sided briefcase. I offered to put it in the overhead bin without looking at the gentleman. Then as I put it in the overhead, I noticed the briefcase had football pebble skin surface and a tag that read Marv Levy. Shortest flight I ever took as we spent the entire time talking about team building, talent selection and interviewing prospects. It was late May 2006 and he had been brought back as GM and was reviewing dossiers of the recently drafted players - Donte Whitner was the top file. He told me that who he picked determined his fate - not unlike my choices as a VP of Sales at the time. He also inquired as to the book I was reading and my thoughts on it. He made note of it and wished me luck in my hiring as we parted. Class act! Happy 93rd to a great leader of men!

Please provide gold star to me when possible.

Wow was unaware of late season bias. Harrison Philips and Star are real steps up from the guys we had in there after trading Marcel Dareus. Thorton, Worthy and Washington were traffic pylons IMHO.

My confession is that my favorite Bill of all time is Charlie Romes, CB #26. Even after he dropped that INT in SD in playoffs in 1980-81 season.

So it's the time of year where nothing is happening in the league...except in Buffalo where The Process is still evolving. Was on the road yesterday and heard Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller on NFL Radio reviewing AFC East Defenses. As imagined they were not too kind to the Bills as our defense let us down at key times last year. Think NO run game and SD and NYJ passing games during mid-season losing streak. They mentioned 2 areas for improvement on D: Pass Rush - we were 4th worst in league with only 27 sacks. it is amazing that the McD /Frasier D schemed up as many picks as we got given the poor pressure generated. Bringing in Trent Murphy to come around the RT is part of the process. Keeping Lorenzo around might also be a way to generate pressure. Would be interesting to see if they drop Shaq inside on obvious passing downs to help get pressure? If he can't do that it could spell the end for him in BUF. STD Rush package Murphy-Star-Kyle-Jerry. Rotation pkg Shaq-Harry-Washington-Yarborough. I would also offer the Greyhound pkg- Zo-Murphy-Shaq-Jerry on 3rd and long or obvious passing downs. 3rd and long - per Kirwan the Bills were 2nd to last in this stat in getting off the field in 3rd and 7 or longer allowing opponents to convert almost 30% of the time. The lack of pressure and our poor LB coverage were the main culprits. McD went to a nickel package with Johnson playing in lieu of Zo for back half of season. Even then Brown and Humber were often exposed by an empty backfield or 13 formations. Having Edmunds and Milano as Nickel LBs and drafting 2 DBs and signing 2 more should help here. Rushing Defense - This is my pet peeve. Wonder why they signed Star ASAP and traded up for Edmunds? Check out this link... http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&tabSeq=2&season=2017&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&qualified=false The Bills were putrid on Run D. Some lowlights: Bills gave up 22 Rushing TDs, 4 more than the next worst team. Worst in the league! The Titans gave up only 5 by comparison as the leagues best vs Run scoring. Bills gave up 121 Rushing 1st downs, again worst in the league. By comparison, the Vikings only gave up 59 Rushing 1st downs and were the leagues best. 4th worst in Yards surrendered at 1994 yds for the year and 4th worst average of 125 ypg. Eagles were leagues best holding opposition to 75 ypg With a tougher schedule, a new QB and a new offense it's helpful they will run same scheme on D. I will be watching the SEP games to see if these 3 areas improve dramatically. If not, the season could get away from the team quickly with a brutal first 7 weeks (5 on the road). It appears McD and Beane saw these weaknesses and took action to correct these areas of concern.

Appreciate the quick format and read to justify your 5-11 prediction. I tend to do prediction by what conferences we play (AFC South and NFC North) and that we also draw 2nd place AFC teams (SD and BAL). We went 3-3 in our own division last year and I don't see us getting better as NYJ have new QB and MIA get their QB back. How I see us doing by conference: AFCE 3-3 NFCN 2-2 AFCS 2-2 SD/BAL 0-2 Overall 7-9 And I do see Allen starting after the bye as well

Glad to see the Bills passing game as a subject. Last year was abysmal due to OC's game plans, a timid QB and the litany of injuries at WR and TE. It can only improve this year! Why? WRs Benjamin and Kerley are experienced WRs in this league who have had success and will be healthy this year. A speed element from Streater, Kaelin Clay or Foster could be a bonus. OC The fact they drafted 2 slot WRs tells me that Daboll will have a horizontal aspect to the passing game too. He will always scheme to get a mismatch and that may be in the slot. RBs Shady, Ivory, Cadet and DiMarco are all good at Pass blocking and as receivers. Daboll will get them in space via mismatches. We will have to get use to a passing offense - last time we saw one was Chan Gailey era.

Gully for Sully!

2 examples of guys from college with accuracy issues getting better as pros Matthew Stafford Georgia, 57.1 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Georgia 564 987 57.1 7731 7.8 7.4 51 33 133.3 *2006 Georgia SEC FR QB 13 135 256 52.7 1749 6.8 5.1 7 13 109.0 *2007 Georgia SEC SO QB 13 194 348 55.7 2523 7.3 7.0 19 10 128.9 *2008 Georgia SEC JR QB 13 235 383 61.4 3459 9.0 9.2 25 10 153.5 Matt Ryan, BC , 59.9 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Boston College 807 1347 59.9 9313 6.9 6.5 56 37 126.2 *2004 Boston College Big East FR QB 7 35 71 49.3 350 4.9 3.6 2 3 91.5 *2005 Boston College ACC SO QB 10 121 195 62.1 1514 7.8 7.4 8 5 135.7 *2006 Boston College ACC JR QB 12 263 427 61.6 2942 6.9 6.5 15 10 126.4 *2007 Boston College ACC SR QB 14 388 654 59.3 4507 6.9 6.5 31 19 127.0 and our QB, Josh Allen, Wyoming, 56.2% Completion %, 2/1 TD/INT ratio Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Wyoming 365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21 137.7 2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1 *2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9 *2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8

My take on top 5 QBs in 2018 draft Mayfield - best headband! Darnold - best hair! Allen - best arm! Rosen - best interview! Jackson- best legs!

Cam got tossed out of FLA for suspected academic cheating (3x) and for stealing a laptop in 2008. When leaving JUCO his dad was trying to sell his services for $180,000. Josh Allen had no issues at either college he attended and other than some infantile/juvenile tweets, had no marks on his record. They are very different personalities and players with different records and skill sets. I don't see the similarities except size.

So my guess is 3-4 Teams didn't see him as a true 0 technique nose and he is too short for 5 technique. And 4-3 teams also couldn't figure out his position. McD's scheme values his flexibility to backup at either role and we will get a year to see which he excels at. My bet is he spells Star on passing downs, plays in all short yardage packages and gives Kyle a breather occasionally.

The even nicer thing about "Horrible Harry" - yes that's his nickname - is he can likely back up Star and Kyle. Strong enough to play the 1 technique and fight double teams and also fast enough to play the 3 technique "disruptor" role. Hopefully he can learn some stronger pass rush moves and hand combat techniques from Kyle to become an upfield terror. Certainly has the brains - 40 on the Wonderlic - to learn the D and a couple positions.

Teller and Johnson will be on the field as starting LG and Nickel CB. To get 2 starters past pick 100 is good. This is a very weak WR and OT class . OBD chose to take BPA at position of need that also tied to overall player rating. Teller was rated as a Rd 2-3 pick. Lots of UDFA and post draft cuts to help at unaddressed areas.

big 6'5" 315 lb mauler who can run block. Richie type demeanor. Is an ex D linemen so has that mentality.

He is a Hybrid S/LB/Package player in Bills D. Frm NFL: Intriguing prospect with good size and physicality who is just learning to play cornerback. Neal has limitations in coverage but may factor as a bump and run specialist. Neal lacks the ball production and instincts of a high safety, but he has the toughness to play near the line of scrimmage and the cover talent to match up against tight ends. Neal's position fit could depend on scheme as well as how he ends up running. He has NFL traits and could become a productive backup or eventual starter.

Agreed, as Bills took a serious look at him and he is a strong size/speed prospect.

So here's what the experts said in 2006 about Meatball. Almost verbatim what they say about Horrible Harry! Full Name: Kyle Williams School: LSU Ht: 6-1 Wt: 295 40: 5.25 Yr: 4Sr Pos: Hard working, scrappy defender who plays with good fundametals. Quick off the snap, gets leverage on opponents and displays solid hand technique. Tenacious, goes hard until the whistle blows and chases to get involved in the action. Displays an array of moves getting off blocks. Makes plays laterally up and down the line of scrimmage. Neg: Not strong at the point and driven off the ball by opponents. Marginal skills as a pass rusher. Analysis: A high revving defender, Williams' ability to get leverage on opponents gives him an upper hand. May never be a starter at the next level yet his tenacity and approach to the game will find him a spot on an NFL roster.

Very doubtful we sign Bowman now. Beane just announced on WGR that they will have Tremaine Edmunds play MLB in 2018. Lorax still at SAM and Milano at WIL when they go to camp. Wonder who gets radio headset on D?