corta765

It went from reasonable points to nuclear in a blink of an eye

your mom!

After going back to back with Rex as off season champs in 15-16, its nice to finally end the offseason title drought

-EJ Manuel was a franchise QB, I bought it hook line and sinker -Should've drafted Rosen and Allen would be a massive flop if they did draft him. I was so mad when they drafted Josh I left the draft party we were at -I once wanted Brandon Weeden -In 2021 I wanted Hyde gone after season as I thought his skills were down as he missed a few big plays... then proceeded to INT vs NE playoffs and yeaaaa -I thought Marrone was going to be BB 2.0

They had the best offensive performance in NFL history vs NE when it was frigid. CIN game was one game, they beat BAL in a similar cold slugfest. I will always take home games first, but I do have confidence with them on the road.

So just a reminder not winning the AFCE is not the end all be all. Bucs won the SB in 2020 despite being a Wild Card and beat the Saints in their house who won the division that year. Rodgers only SB win came as a Wild Card. Steelers won the SB with Big Ben as a wild card in 2005. Elway's first SB in 1997 actually was as a WC team that beat ironically the Chiefs in their house who won the division. It is not uncommon at all for Wild Cards to make runs, generally though it is a top QB that drives that train which we have in Josh. This is the most resistance Buffalo has faced on paper heading into a season since 2019 in division. The run NE had for the division was unprecedented in NFL history and won't be repeated as much as I would love Buffalo to. Not saying this year Buffalo won't win the division I think they are still the favorite at this time, but the resistance is real at least heading into the season.

It will take more the one non playoff year for McD to be canned. Pegula has seen under McD the team go from nothing to yearly contender that wins a lot and is a major national brand right now. No way he is touching that unless there is years worth of regression. Now for me I would not say this is a make it or break it year, but if he fails to breakthrough again or worse does miss the playoffs I think 25' for me would be make it or break it at that point. Josh still has a lot of prime years left and if after 25 the result is the same you make the move finally so you can get a different voice and leader while you still have Josh at some good years.

Honestly I am not sure I have an NFC team I have a real rooting interest though. I root many times for the story like Brees and the Saints SB run, Cards run in 08, SEA was really fun in 13', or the G-Man knocking the Patriots both times. By the same token I have rooted against these teams later on also haha. Detroit I have empthay for but I would never want them to win before us. Minnesota might be the closest I have any rooting interest as my buddy is a huge Vikings fan so for him I pull for them. The Rams might be the team I have a real like for as their history is pretty awesome, their colors and unis until recently are amazing, and I like what they are as a franchise. But again it is not breaking my heart if they lose. Ironically if I had a second team it might be the Raiders which is probably against the rules, but I loveddd Rich Gannon as a kid and the Gruden Raiders. I have his autograph on a picture and a Raiders hat. The brashness of what they are and culture always was super awesome to me. So as long as Buffalo is not losing to the Raiders I generally pull for them a bit.

This year will be telling if he still has it and can perform at a high level for a few more years or if he is damaged for good. ACL injuries typically take a year and half to truly return to complete health both physically and mentally. Just because outliers exist where guys returned super fast and just as good does not mean it is the norm. Also position matters big time, CB relies heavily on quick cuts and movement so you really need to be able to trust your body and that it will perform. In Vons case it is a little easier as he just attacks forward without the quick cuts and turns the way a CB does. Doesn't mean it still doesn't impact pass rushes but they seem to have an easier bounce back compared to CBs.

Agreed, I think I would say a QB who works incredible hard, is a solid leader, and is detailed will forever out perform talent. Kyler & Baker both had/maybe still have the potential to be something that could've really shined. But they never seemed to evolve the way you want. Fitzpatrick was believed because for having garbage physical tools he was a franchise guy in every other category and teams could have modest success with that. I will always want my franchise QB to hopefully have enough talent to function, but the other areas really seem to shine. The other thing is your team has to has to has to HAS TO have a cohesive plan for the QB. This starts from building an offensive line so your QB isn't killed to then adding skill players who maximize the QBs best attributes. I forever will stand by Beane adding Beasley and Brown was two of his smartest moves as Josh got a guy who couldn't out throw and a guy who could catch anything and regularly eat 5-7 yards. If you can add Jamar Chase obviously that is awesome, but having the vision to maximize a QBs skill set is something the best do and the worst never seem to understand.

I would say I am more measured and less reactive opinion wise then when I was younger a decade ago. At that time I lived and died on every play, w/l, move made or not made, etc.. now I do a better job at the long vision and perspective. Additionally and maybe its with having kids but its not serious to the point of letting it wreck, football is fun and the Bills are something my wife and family and I truly enjoy. Doesn't mean I don't have a loss that gets me mad for a day, but I rebound far faster and don't let it get to me the way it use to. Perhaps finally seeing the team have some real success also helps too as the good days out weight the bad for years now. But overall I am more just enjoying the ride and having fun watching football then anything else. With that said I am good for one bad thread a season with my magnum opus being the time I said we should cut Micah Hyde after the season... and then he had the INT of the century WHOOPS!

@Jets - L Raiders - W @Commanders - W Fish - W Jags (London) - L Gmen - W @Pats - W Bucs - W @Bengals - L Broncos - W Jets - W @Eagles - W @Chiefs - L Cowboys - W @Chargers - W Pats - W @Fish - L 12-5 By the way the Broncos game feels like the classic dud at home that happens yearly so I reserve the right to be correct unfortunately if that happens.

Optimism: -Josh Allen is one of top 5 best players in the NFL -odds are Bills defense will not have the injuries on D that literally decimated- the secondary and our most import pass rusher -said returning injuried players all come back healthy with Von at least having done this before -offense got some needed investment in areas that desperately needed to address and at least on paper seemed to address players who were needed if the scheme were to improve (YAC players, deep burn, Cole Beasley type short-mid range players) -schedule is very opportunistic before the tough games and late bye is a huge help -Only 4 games not on Sunday -Josh Allen again because he is a demigod -At this time Tom Brady is retired lol Pessimism: -Division is legitimately tougher which even if you win the division you probably are adding a loss or two making the 1 seed harder -Edmunds gone is a hit regardless of your feelings as he was a good player and now someone else needs to fill the role. -This could be a better Bills team then last year and end up 11-6 with a single home game or even on the road -Jaguars in London is a bummer as they look good and I would've liked that here. Might be tie breaker in AFC seeding -Bills WR corp missed two straight years at adding a good long term replacement/complement to Diggs in the draft. On a pure cost control setting that stinks as upgrades are pricier and not rookie contract -RIP camper lot during construction of new home -CIN looks to have added more depth and firmly is another team in the way. It is no longer KC-BUF, but KC-CIN-BUF in the AFC plus BAL and other improved nipping at their heals -In true seriousness camelot has fallen. Even after 13 seconds I would say most fans were relatively rosy of the team and McBeane. The way the Bills were eliminated and the failure to make the SB again has now created a very critical fanbase that understands the window is open but opportunities have been missed and the coach/GM are finally being at least viewed critically for real now at not striking on this window. The good vibes are gone, its all or nothing to many at this time. Bills mafia is more fun when peeps want to have fun and be optimistic, but I can't disagree in some regard to having to readjust and ask some real questions on what is happening. So for that its bummer because it was a nice run without being forced to ask the hard questions to some degree.

He turns to the Fellowship of the Ring who arrive on foot from Middle Earth. Quite a hike, great endurance, but big eaters after that walk.

Even just the conference title game I think its like DAL-WSH-DET-CLE-HOU as the only teams in the past 25 years or something who haven't made one and DAL/WSH long term have a ton of history. The only kind of guarantee in the NFL is if you have a franchise QB it gives you a much longer leash to and period where you could win. Even so Brees/Rodgers each got one SB and never have gotten back and outside of Brady going to 3 SBs with a guy seems to be the max most of the time. Bill Barnwell had a piece once about trading QBs before they end their rookie contract even if they are good using Goff as the example at the time as he had two pro bowl caliber seasons, made a SB, but was due a big contract. The general thesis was what if you could move him for more assets while keeping the team you had built around him instead of paying the QB which overtime removes the talent you build. Right now the floor still isn't high enough in QB play to do that, but it is a really interesting argument and if the floor of QB play improves where they can be more interchangeable the parity would only flourish more.

The dumbest/toughest piece of the drought is plenty of teams during that time were 6-7 "just need these three wins" and actually had that happen. Buffalo couldn't even catch that break until 2017. At least with the Phins when Tua is healthy their offense is super dynamic so I can at least understand some excitement there. If Tua were to play 17 games healthy they 100% can be a threat, but that remains to be seen. The Pats though.... their QB is as exciting as play dough and crossing 21 pts seems like an accomplishment. When they go 5-11 this year it will be glorious.

I have done a ton of simulations for the Bills. They generally fall between 9-9 and 11-6. Some crazy outliers like a 5-11 one with a ton of one score losses but also some 13-4. Ironically the simulation reallyyy likes the Bills over CIN and PHI but does not like us vs NYG, NE, and TB (?).

So pro football focus has a really cool new tool that allows you to run a simulation of any teams season for 2023. It automatically runs the games through their system and gives a record with stats and grade for the year. It is a beta run so it is not perfect as the Bucs went 13-4 in one I ran for them lol. Most of the Bills simulations landed them between 9-8 and 11-6 which feels fair. There were a few oddities like a 5-11 season where Buffalo lost a ton of one score games, but also 13-4 where they won 9 straight and beat CIN-PHI-KC all in one stretch. Its fun and different, I think as they improve the model it will be better. Anyhoo your probably asking what in gods name does this have to do with the NFL. Well as you simulate through the season you can see the games as they shake out and I got me thinking at how the NFLs greatest asset is its ability to sell hope. You can have a team that is 7-8, but many times you see a team does have that sliver of hope as if they win out they can get a wild card birth or a maybe a division crown. Compared to any other sport the NFL excels with teams "being in the hunt" because regularly a team can go from DOA to a division crown or wild card birth. The flipside and the danger the NFL has to consider is its push to expand games and the playoffs. I would say currently the playoff structure is perfect as roughly 43.75% (14 of 32) make the playoffs and it requires some level of playing well outside of an occasional bad division winner. The number of games though I think would be a mistake to go past 17 even though I know they want 18. The beauty that keeps so many fans interest when you have a 6-7 vs 7-6 matchup is the fact every game matters. There is a tipping point we are not far away from where too many more games will drain the max value you see and the impact of wins or losses.

The Jets game was classic beating yourself when your beating them. Once though they got the first TD you could see they smelled blood. Like I said I loved in year 2 game 1 to see Allen had already progressed so much even if it wasn't perfect. Gave a lot of confidence for the season in total.

OL is tough too as they had a new coach last year and in general offensive line play does vary naturally year to year which is also tough. The encouraging thing is the Bills added too younger guys in McCovern and Cyrus so that helps as Dawkins is pure prime. They really need Brown to be at least average and they need a plan for Morse as his days are not too much longer.

I have two honorable mentions that won't get the love maybe the way they should but I understand also why given the criteria: 2019 Bills Jets Week 1 - So this will never make the list due to stats as Josh had four turnovers in this game while getting 2 TDs and 292 yards total. BUT the proverbial eye test was far different as three of those turnovers were not his fault (Cole Beasley bobble INT lol), he actually moved the offense pretty well throughout, and led an awesome comeback capped by the 40 yard TD to Brown with just 3 mins to go. I understand some people view best performance on stats and I think that is cool, but at the time for a QB who was entering his 2nd year with still a lot of doubters he certainly proved himself in a big way. 2022 Bills Dolphins Week 15 - For some reason this game has been ignored by fans ever since it happened with how freaking good he was and how much he had to do to get the win. For the first time since the Bills had reign on the AFC East they had a legitimate challenge for the division in a game at home and to Miami's credit they pushed the Bills in the game. Had the Bills lost Miami was then a game back with the tie breaker in division. Josh had 4 TDs and nearly 400 yards combined while bringing the Bills back from an 8 pt deficit with 12 minutes left in the game. I know by this point in the season people were hyper critical of the offense and its performance in general, but Josh literally did everything needed to get the W and the stats backed up how good he was.

No lol

It is for Ko Simpson don't worry lol It is why they need a legit Bills Hall of fame with the stadium. You can have OJs accomplishments with the electric company while not having him on the WOF.

I would probably swap the Jets W-L with each other and I think they beat TB and lose to KC, but otherwise schedules are weird and the games you win and lose always never plan perfect so yea this is probably more true then people realize.

Also finishing in Miami the division one way or the other could be out of play so the game may not have as much meaning.