corta765

To me once you win the crown you gain another level of confidence and 13 seconds with the way that game was going AND then the proceeding dumb*ss kickoff, no I def would've had confidence in tying if I was KC. Last year they seemed to relish the challenge truthfully and the "underdog" status. BUF-KC has turned into a classic breakthrough battle ala BOS-NYY Manning-Brady OAK-PIT NFL 70s where one team has had the hammer forever but the other is getting close. Now it also could turn into Knicks-Bulls but I am not putting myself mentally into that head place lol

I just realized Jaawan Taylor is only 26, I swear he has been in the NFL for like a decade already lol. Your best case and worst case is the same as what I have. Realistically if the worst case for the Chiefs is some parts show some age and they still win a division crown and host a playoff game that is pretty impressive. The one think more then anything working against the Chiefs is their run of AFC title games in a row and statistically they should have an off year. BUT the only two teams that have scared or beaten KC in the post season are CIN whose DEF seems to match Mahomes while Burrow can hold serve and BUF which is basically because Josh somehow goes off yearly against KC before Mahomes beats the Bills defense lol. Who do you think emerges from the WR corp besides Rice at this point? Worhty is new, does Watson have a shot? Exactly. Almost yearly there is a team that comes out of nowhere or exceeds prior expectations to have a year like that. Even that Bears team in 2018 that went 11-5 and ran hot a lot of people thought in 2019 would be better... except they ignored the historically high turnover margin the team had and # of TDs the defense contributed that was due for correction in the following year. Football is weird weird weird, it is why top QBs are what you want and follow and they have the most consistent trajectory.

It is why it is best case scenario. Realistically it isn't happening and right now I have Miami at 9-8/8-9 range. Teams do have season everything is perfect from health, turnover luck, a few things fall their way and you get a dream season. I read a good piece by Bill Barnwell which explained good teams over the long term are regularly 11-6/12-5 range, hitting 13/14/15 wins truthfully is a lot of luck circumstance and everything falling your way just given the way football is with all of those factors. The Bills 2017 team was decidedly the worst of the 2015-2017 group yet some turnover luck, fortune, better coaching gave them the playoff berth out of that group which combine was a perfect 24-24 over three seasons. Since Tua arrived in 2020 Miami has a record of 39-28 floating a little above .500 but any time they have met resistance they have wilted. I think it is more likely they go 7-10 then 13-4 at this point and last year was the max of this group, but again circumstance and luck has a way sometimes.

Their defense is in a sizable reshape and rookie QBs usually take some time even with a decent supporting cast. I think the big thing is they stay competitive throughout the season and show true progress at QB/across the board so they can spring board in 2025.

My honest thought is Minnesota has a 6-11 type year where the record looks bad but the back half JJ finds his groove a bit and they are in most games. I think if they start Darnold it is a mistake given the supporting cast they have for a rookie to learn with.

Like I did yesterday this is my NFC version of best/worst case season outcomes for each team. This is based off of todays roster and where I think it is going while understanding things can change. Arizona Best: With Kyler healthy the Cardinals offense takes off with Harrison Jr in the fold and the Cards clinch a wild card berth Worst: Kyler fails to return to the high end player he had showed in the past and another nondescript 6-11 year goes by without any tangible progress in any area. Atlanta Best: Captain Kirk has a career year unleashing the skilled playmakers ATL have as they take advantage of a light schedule for a 13-4 1 seed year and berth in the NFC title game. Worst: Cousins age and injury shows as the Falcons struggle in 6-11 year and insert in Penix for the final 5 games who looks overwhelmed showing no sign of competence. Carolina Best: Bryce Young takes major steps forward showing he is not a bust as the offense finishes in the top half. The Panthers are in the playoff hunt before falling late in a 7-10 year. Worst: Young shows no signs of improvement, the offense is as bad as in 2023, and the team goes 4-12 missing out on the top 3. Chicago Best: Hype train is real as Williams throws for 3700 yds 28 TDs as the Bears finally have a passing offense and take a wildcard spot winning a game. Worst: 6-11 season as Williams is very down with few highlights and they have to put the backup in a few times. The defense fails to show the promise it had in 2023 and a new head coach/gm come in continuing the cycle in Chicago of constant coach/gm change. Dallas Best: It finally comes together as the Cowboys win back to back division crowns, beat the 49ers in the divisional round, and go to their first NFC title since 96'. Dak wins MVP and Jerry has to pay him a new oil well. Worst: 7-10 season sees coach get fired, Dak not receive a contract extension hitting FA, and Dallas implode from top to bottom. Even the mascot calls it quits and throws their outfit in the salvation army bin. Detroit Best: They close this time in the NFC title as they host the game in Detroit for their first Super Bowl ever. Worst: Last year was a mirage as Goff looks more like the system QB he was in LA, the Packers & Bears blow by in the division, and Detroit misses the playoffs at 8-9 recalling questions on the QB position long term. Green Bay Best: The high octane offense GB and Love showed the back half of 2023 hits full stride on the way to a 12-5 division crown as Love finishes establishing himself as a franchise QB. The Packers make a run to the NFC title game also. Worst: The Packers fail to improve on last year falling to 7-10 as the Bears even pass by them and questions start on whether Love is the QB long term. LA Rams Best: The offense explodes as Stafford helps the young playmakers reach another level while the Rams defense sees strong young contributions as they take the division crown from the 49ers. Worst: Stafford gets hurt and the offense regresses while the defense cannot survive the loss of Donald as the Rams are out of playoff contention by December. Stafford retires and the Rams enter a major transition period with more questions then answers and McVay enters broadcasting Minnesota Best: JJ flies in his rookie year as with an offense loaded in playmakers he lets them do the work on the way to a surprise playoff berth at 9-8 Worst: Darnold holds the starting spot for over half the season before JJ finally comes in and shows very little to be excited about and the Vikes as a team go 5-12. New Orleans Best: In a lukewarm NFC South the Saints go 10-7 to win the division and knock out the 49ers at home. Worst: The Saints go 7-10 spinning their tires as they have the last few years being not good enough to do anything but not bad enough to get a top pick in the draft. NY Giants Best: Nabers is a revelation as he gives Jones a true passing target and the offense takes some real steps. The defense becomes a top 10 unit and the Giants go 10-7 in route to a wildcard berth. Worst: The offense is as bad as it looks on paper, Jones is an overpay cut target leaving NY with a QB question, and the rebuild with Bills NYC has flashing lights on its long term viability while also missing out on a top 5 pick. Philadelphia Best: Moore fixes the offense/Hurts to 2022 form, Fangio does wonders on defense, and the Eagles roar back to a 13-4 season grabbing the 1 seed and returning to the SB. Worst: Hurts 2022 season feels more like an aberration as his uneven play in 2023 continues throughout 2024, the Eagles miss the playoffs at 8-9 and questions explode about the coaching staff being a fit long term. San Fran Best: The win the SB breaking through on years of almost. Worst: Purdy is uneven as his turnovers go up, CMAC gets hurt, the defense isn't the same after some attrition, and the 49ers bow our as a wildcard quickly. Seattle Best: Geno continues his solid play of the last two years and stays healthy while Macdonald infuses a new energy to the defense and they return to the playoffs as a wildcard. Worst: In their worst season in a decade plus Geno is lukewarm at QB and gets hurt, the defense goes through growing pains in year 1 and the Seahawks are out of playoff contention by the end of November giving the 12s a long offseason to think on. Tampa Bay Best: Year 2 Baker is even better finally having stability as they win another division crown and finish 12-5 with the 2 seed. Worst: Year 2 Baker is more uneven as the offense isn't as dynamic, the defense slips after losing key veterans and the Bucs miss the playoffs at 7-10 forcing thoughts of a true rebuild. Washington Best: Jayden Daniels has an RG3 esq rookie year as the offense takes off in year 1 while Quinn stabilizes the defense into a bend don't break unit and the Commanders take the final wildcard and Daniels wins ROTY. Additionally they change their name to the Redtails with far better logo, uni set, and overall brand. Worst: Mariota starts the year and does nothing, Daniels comes in and does nothing, the defense shows zero improvement, and the Commanders waste a year with no real progress to build on for the future.

At this point they have the best coach and QB in the league. Their division is AFCE mid 2000s bad so even if their down who are you honestly taking at this point. Don't like it but really hard for me to see any way they miss the playoffs. Exactly with the Chiefs. Like truthfully its like the Pats at this point where the best coach and QB in division are so far ahead, the schedule is light, and you need basically injuries to derail it. I follow college football but not like I use to. It has gotten so money heavy and commercialized its lost its luster for me.

More schedule related then anything. BAL has a first place schedule and a division where if they win they still cap out at 12. Miami basically has two freebees with NE and if they were to hit their best scenario probably go 3-1 vs NY/BUF. The rest of their schedule I'd say they are favored or even minus SF, GB, HOU so again in a perfect season for them I think 13-4 is plausible.

Knew you'd appreciate that big guy

They do have a new DC which of course their players are super excited about (#anychangeisgoodchangewithplayers) so I can see their defense geling possibly. They also had a host of serious injuries themselves which took its toll last year. Honestly I think Miami's most realistic scenario is 8-9 // 9-8 where they flirt with the playoffs but the loss of talent is real, Hill shows a little age, and Tua is what he is. Tua has had years now of help and support and I think he is pretty decent. But at this point it also is what it is and I think they regress in a tougher AFC with less talent to work with. But best case scenario is they finally put it together and finish which is why I have it that way.

I started doing this last year and enjoyed it greatly where I looked at each conference and each team with their best case/worst case season wise and kind of kept doing it throughout. The rosters are relatively set and I will do this again in August, but here is where things feel to me at this point: Baltimore Best: The Ravens win a tight division race at 12-5 as their running game is close to unstoppable and the defense gels in the back end to be a force. 1 seed again and this time they beat KC at home to make the SB Worst: The defense takes a step back as the losses they've had catch up and the offense regresses while Henry shows his age in a 9-8 non playoff year as the division attrition takes its toll Buffalo Best: Similar to the Ravens the Bills go 12-5 in a tight division race as the offense truly finds itself in the last 9 games and they get the 1 seed finally. They slay the dragon against KC and go to the SB beating CIN at home in the AFC title. Worst: The losses on defense add up as the unit takes a real step back, the offense never finds itself requiring Josh to be superman too much, and they stumble to an 9-8 year out of the playoffs Cincinnati Best: Burrow is healthy on return and they throttle through the division and finish 13-4 with the 1 seed. Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 and Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN. Cleveland Best: Watson finally finds his game after all of these years and the Browns win the division at 11-5. They win their first playoff game at home in a century Worst: The Browns go 6-11 as the luck they had in one score games last year reverses, Watson continues to not show anything at QB, and the team is out of the playoff race by mid December. Denver Best: In a miracle type situation Bo Nix leads the Broncos to a wild card berth as the AFC log jams the final spots and DEN ends up 2nd best of the AFCW. Worst: The lack of talent in DEN rears its ugly head as they sink to a 4-13 year and Nix shows nothing in any starts to give any hope he can be the answer long term. Houston Best: 14-3 dream season as the offense sparkles like everyone hopes and the defense continues to solidify as they get the 1 seed and make their first AFC title game. Worst: Stroud fails to take another step forward, they lose the tight games they won in 2023, and they fall to 8-9 out of the playoffs as Jacksonville eliminates them week 17 from the playoff race. Indianapolis Best: The Colts are the surprise AFC South winner at 10-7 as Richardson healthy with Taylor healthy mix into a dynamic rushing attack with some deep passing threats. Worst: Richardson's promise of 2023 never materializes in any meaningful way in 2024 and the Colts have a down 7-10 season where they never are truly part of the playoff race Jacksonville Best: The Jags are the team that went 8-3 through the first 11 in 2023 across a full season this time as Lawrence healthy leads the Jags to an 11-5 division crown. Worst: Lawrence injuries' continue to add up as they trip to another season under .500 at 7-11 and questions on the long term future of coach/qb swirl. Kansas City: Best: The steamroll continues as they threepeat and face little resistance in the AFC Worst: The age of the offensive line and Kelce finally shows mixed with suspensions to a few players for this offseason and the Chiefs go 11-6 ending up the fourth seed and lose at home in the first round. LA Chargers Best: Herbert with competent coaching hits the heights people hold him to and the Chargers make the wild card as a plucky 7th seed. Worst: The Chargers go 6-11 as the lack of talent on the roster becomes evident and Herbert fails to return to being the player he was in 21/22. Las Vegas Best: The young players on the Raiders grow big time as the offense turns into a solid unit with one of the QBs providing enough capable QB to keep the team in the playoff hunt late December Worst: They win too many games finishing with 4-6 wins and miss out on the first overall pick with no clear answer at QB either. Miami Best: Their offense boat races the AFC as Miami finally finishes the season as hot as they've started the last few years at 13-4 and goes to the AFC title. Worst: Lack of depth, Tua's limitations, injuries & age to Hill finally catch up as the Phins fall back to 7-11 in a year that forces major questions up the long term future at QB and roster. New England Best: Drake Maye establishes himself as a quality starter as the Pats go 7-10 as the defense remains stout without BB and the offense comes together setting up a nice springboard for 2025. Worst: Brissett fails to do anything meaningful as starter until Maye starts who has a Bryce Young level bad first year. The defense regresses as BB wizardly is no longer there to cover the holes and the Patriots go 4-13 again but also miss out on a top 3 pick. New York Jets Best: The stars align as Rodgers has a top 5 caliber QB season which mixed with the Jets defense sees them go 12-5 to win their first division crown in over two decades. The Jets proceed to make it to the AFC title game. Worst: Rodgers gets beat up and fails to finish the season as age is real. The team with Tyrod cannot finish the season and they again miss the playoffs at 7-10 lamenting what could have been. Pittsburgh Best: Justin Fields steals the starting spot and leads a resurgent Steeler offense to a top 10 season as they steal the division at 11-5. Worst: The dreaded under .500 season hits as the Steelers offense has no QB and the division ascends past them as they are out of the playoff hunt by mid December as the brutal schedule finishes the job. Tennessee Best: Will Levis emerges into a true starter and the youth movement continues as the Titans finish surprisingly close to a playoff spot. Worst: Levis is not the QB and too shaky, the 2020 all star team they put together shows its age, and the Titans go 2-15 in a rough season with no real brightspots to build off.

I voted for the Jets for a few reasons: 1. Their defense is legit which immediately allows them to be a competitive team in most games 2. IF their QB play is just average their a playoff team based off advanced stats. The offense has been putrid at QB for years being in the bottom 30 since Darnold. People are forgetting that with how bad it has been Rodgers just needs to be average and the offense can do some meaningful things across the board. Their skill position players are pretty solid and I'd argue their WR corp is better then the Bills currently (If Keon/Shakir do emerge that can change). 3. As much as Miami has been around it feels like they missed their chance last year and Tua has been figured out a bit especially with better teams. The Dolphins have a very top heavy roster in talent and are not super deep. The defense has aged and while having so truly strong playmakers is fourth best in the division. Tyreek who has super charge the offense is now 30 and injuries have been creeping in. Waddle is a great young talent, but without Tyreek that offense looks way different. In general it feels like regression is coming in Miami a little bit and the Jets are due a bit better odds. **All of this again hinges on the Jets having Rodgers healthy for the season and that in itself is risky given their o-line // his injuries** ** I would also add its interesting the Jets wanted Carr because with him I think they would've taken the division last year as he just is routinely average/above average which would've been a major change on offense for them at QB**

Def something as a kid when your dad and the dudes are together and you are allowed to join. super cool feeling

Few cool ones with my dad and now my son: -First Bills game Bills Bears 2000 where RJ got knocked out and the crowd cheered (yikes lol) my dad took me to it. Threw the ball around the parking lot, he got me nice big Bills gloves and a beanie which I still have and the beanie my oldest wears -07 Pats SNF first night game and tailgate ever. Game was a trainwreck and the Bills owe me therapy money and anyone else who attended. But the experience was super fun and it was at that cool age where being in college and 20 my dad could loosen up more and have some drinks -2017 Raiders game my wife and I got him tickets with us. Such a fun game as the hype of the Raiders was high given the playoff year plus Mack was there. BUF torched them and the vibe felt finally different that maybe they would break the drought. He has grown up with the Bills since inception and the Raiders were always a fav of his and mine to hate/like. Hate as they usually were good forever, but they had a charm about them for their bullyish ways and Berman always saying Da Raidas! -2020 Colts playoff game he had people over and it was the first time watching a playoff game with him as an adult where the Bills were legit good (not lucky to be there or 98 Bills Flutie). Fun celebration after With my son the 2020 season in general was a blast as he was going from closing in on 2 years old and started to at least understand football meant fun and excitement. He fell in love with the Shout song both Bills/Original and I went to Buffalo for the AFC title as my dad sister and I were going to riverworks to watch the game. Pretty sure I played the Shout Song 45 times as my son kept asking for it (side note it ended up 1 played that year in my itunes). Bummer we lost to KC but the whole day was a blast -2021 preseason we took my son who was nearly 3 and my mom for the packers. Super awesome moment just having him there. Only stayed the first half but he loved it. in 2022 my dad came for the colts preseason game and the four of us had a blast. By that point my son fully understood a lot more and wanted to see Billy the Buffalo which made him very happy haha Can't wait as this year we have four tickets to Bills Bears preseason and both my sons are going (3 & 5) with my wife and I. Won't take them to a regular season game until probably 10-11 which is when I went though as anything before feels like too much haha

Tend to agree. Probably something like thing: 2019: WC 2020: Division 2021: WC NE wins division over us. People forget the final NE regular season game Josh went absolutely nuts and was the difference as NE was not bad in that 2022: Division 2023: WC MIA wins over us. Joshs running ability was big in the win streak although Cousins probably doesn't throwaway week 1 vs NY. They probably win a playoff round once maybe twice but I think they are still held back in the end as Cousins is really good not great.

I know but as I said at the time it was an awful reflection of the franchise and which looked cheap and mishandled… something that was proven later in again

I would add with that many people forget the 2017 draft class was Whaley/McD not Beane that gave Tre, Milano, & Taron. All three of them became true blue chip difference makers. Beane did get Allen, Edmunds, & Oliver and I do agree like you said the last two draft classes have brought a really nice group of young talent but he really needs a few to elevate to the levels the three from 2017 did.

I look at this two ways: Yearly grade Overall or long term Yearly it will change as the goal of the GM is to build the best possible roster which it then is up to the coach to work with. Overall or long term every team wants a QB, clean cap, and draft picks to work and replenish with. So yearly: 2017 B but mostly because he did not do FA/draft and was more setting up the future. I thought he did a fine job given the circumstances and this is fair 2018 A- Had Wyatt Teller been here still its a A+ but regardless he knocked the draft out of the park and got Josh. FA was still cleaning the cap which was fine 2019 B+ Oliver was has been good and the rest of the draft was productive, Brown Beasley & Morse were all major signings that helped build the future in a big way. Also gave Josh a decent offensive line to sit behind that year. 2020 B- Diggs trade bails out was was a lukewarm draft that long term never really developed and hurts now as none of the guys are left minus AJ Epenesa & Bass 2021 C Emmanuel Sanders was fine as WR3 and Greg Rossesau is a solid DE. The rest of FA was limited and that draft was even worse then 2020. Spencer Brown did have a nice comeback year and if he continues to improve to be a long term answer then I may switch this to a B- 2022 B+ The Von signing hurts because of the contact and brings the grade down from an A-, BUT at the time it felt good and until injury he was playing at a high level. More importantly the draft looks to have netted four starters in Shakir, Cook, Bernard, & Benford plus Spector has been fine in spot duty as 7th round pick. If Elam ever finds himself this draft really looks impressive. Don't forget DaQuan Jones was a cheap FA signing too. 2023 C+ The draft looks to have netted potentially three starters in Kincaid, Torrence, & D WIlliams. The Rasual Douglas was a sensational trade midseason that really helped the back end. Now for the bad, the only quality free agent signing that worked out with Connor McGovern, the cap was a mess from prior years spending locking the Bills out from a needed proven WR, they didn't address WR in the draft as it became clear that Davis probably was walking & Diggs was becoming an issue, and many of the free agent signings that offseason were non factors. The platoon approach especially was questionable at WR rather then going for a proven starter and reared its head more and more throughout the year. Overall B+ / Top 10 GM in the NFL - Overall Beane has managed to find a franchise QB & help his development, fix the cap and for the most part manage it well, most drafts he has found proven starters although he needs a few blue chip players to emerge again like in 2018/19, and he has been thrifty with his free agent/trade dealings finding very good starters there. To me he is a ring away from being in the Top 5 of GMs that exist, but it is not like he isn't in their universe either and is quite respected league wide. The Von signing and Tre White deal both feel unfair to fully put on him because the nature of the injuries they had was freak and in that regard it is hard to predict especially with Tre. Keon Coleman will be probably his one great judgement for the time being as WR seems to be the one spot he has not found a truly great starter year at whereas on virtually every other level of the roster he has found truly quality long term players. I guarantee if Beane were available right now he would be sought after as heck with a legion of teams ready to move for him. I truthfully trust him and care about having him around long term more then I care about McD at this point.

I will try to do this balancing the idea of impact or less then on the field with also defining the Bills themselves over a period of time. This isn't just they were bad or a bad draft pick, it needs to be deeper. With that said: Tom Cousineau - He refused to play in Buffalo as he found the franchise as very blah and the money not enough with Ralph (sound familiar). Ironically the Bills of the late 70s and early 80s were pretty decent, but the overall look of a #1 pick refusing to play for you and part of the reason being money represent a lot of what has went wrong in the past Dick Jauron - He is the drought coach. 7-9 across the board, a team that ripped defeat from the jaws of victory, a coach who played for 3rd and 4 so you could maybe run for a 1st or win field position. The famous 6-3 Browns loss coach along with a bunch of other heart breakers mixed in. Across the board no one else represented ineptitude and being "in the hunt" when truly you stunk like Jauron. Sammy Watkins - If Jauron represented the 2000s version of the drought then Sammy was the 2010s version. Talent existed, hype existed, but the work needed never came together, the expectations failed, and the drama surrounding the player both with the team and fanbase was a tirefire. Hank Bullough - An awful head coach at a time the teams future was rocky and once Kelly got here a guy who was literally told by his players to be fired because it wasn't up to snuff. Story goes Jim Kelly got so tired of him he told Ralph it is him or me, thank god he kept Kelly.

Agreed but also remember Damian Harris who was pretty productive for his role had his season and unfortunately career end mid season. Even if the Bills wanted to switch with Brady to other trust worthy guys, they were banged up in spots and it was Josh or Bust. Completely agree and expect a bit more measured approach this year with hopefully better health.

Not disagreeing at all with this. It is why I said I think by 2010 he knew he had flubbed it bad but it was too late as the teams future made it so hard to get quality people and they had botched so much in the prior decade that Buffalo was Siberia for all intensive purposes. The loss in 2004 to the Steelers had such ramifications short and long term for the franchise. The domino effect of bad decisions for years after was insane.

Ralph was cheap in the worst ways. He would pay players and especially after the 90s teams I think he understood how important it was to treat them right. The problem was the coaches and facility wise he did not pay very well and as the league evolved it caught him hard. He was one of the originals and a very solid businessman, the team was his best business and he helped develop the team with the league in a huge way. I think he was truthfully a better steward for the league then he was an owner of the Bills, but he was also part of the original guard with Al Davis and you could see the game passed him the last decade or so which caught the Bills hard. He was very stubborn which hurt as the league morphed into owners being less involved and just writing checks instead. I think he would admit if he had a redo he would've spent more on coaches/facilities and had a better succession plan from 2000 on as that all together made Buffalo very uncompetitive from the mid 2000s until 2014 when the Pegula's arrived.

Don't disagree but somewhere around 2014-15 the viral piece exploded and for a good 3-4 years it really felt like a competition of how close someone could get to killing themselves lol Toronto was over by 2014 which is why I did not include it. Otherwise yea it would've been bad and weird especially the halftime show featuring the Gangdum Style dude What exactly makes you feel this way specifically about Buffalo? I would say that in general most NFL fans especially in die hard markets like Buffalo feel this way. If I were to do an NFL version of this I would say that the levels the league has now gotten to in the interest of growing the game and increased revenues are very bad and not fan friendly.

Irony is at this point Carr is probably equal in skill to Rodgers especially with his injuries.

I would even add that the Rex idea was not the worst and it was the first time since Chuck Knox the Bills hired a coach who had brand name and some real respect in league circles. That to me was still a win for ownership even if it ended up going sideways. We joke how bad the Bills Rex era was but there is an alternate universe they beat MIA and then the NYJ to make the playoffs in 2016 and he ends up a hero.