Matt_In_NH

Because they guaranteed money to the guy they have on the roster now and they have no cap space, everything is a trade off.

I love Brown and happy for him personally, great day to be him. However, not every guy should get a second contract from the Bills, that is partly why you have the dead cap you have this year. Not all second contracts but Morse, Tre White, Diggs etc are contribting to dead cap this year. Whenever they make a big deal with s player it represents a relatively high risk of a future dead cap hit when/if something goes sideways. Brown has had injury issues...dont see the contract details yet but I am not sure Beane should have done this one. Sometimes you have to move from guys who are good but not great. I felt that way when they about Knox, Bass and Edmunds. Look at Edmunds, Beane finally stopped himself from making the signing and look what happened, Bernard emerged. If that did not happen we would be thinking Beane still "missed" with Bernard probably because he would have never played MLB last year. Maybe the right more would have been to let Brown walk, let Grable, VanDenmark and maybe a draft pick next year fight it out and see who emerges. OK, it sounds like I am hating on Beane, I actually think he is a great GM and I am thankful he is with the Bills but I think he likes to sign his picks a little too much.

I love his personality and I am good with him staying long term, however I am surprised given the younger talent on the roster. It seems they love Vandenmark and Tylan Grable seemed like a hit in the draft.

I am not so extreme about it. Yes he is over rated and did not really deserve the MVP last year but he is super talented and one of the best qbs in the nfl. Mahomes and then Allen are clearly above him IMO but he is in the next grouping. He does not get dinged for his injury issues and poor play in big moments….that. Is my issue with how he is treated by the media.

The only thing Jets fans learn to spell is Jets?

Looking at dead cap for one year and making vast conclusions is narrow sighted, all teams deal with dead cap, it goes up and down, some are conservative some are aggressive with contracts. Is it the same people that push for the Bills to sign all FA's to big deals cause the "cap is not real" that are now astounded by a year of dead cap? When you sign a lot of guys to big deals and push the money out it guarantees you will have big dead cap years at some point. People see the number, 60M and think, hey we can do other things with that but guess what, we did, in years past he Bills spent cash above the cap, this is just the bookkeeping catching up because the cap is just accounting.

2025 does not have tons of cap available. Anyway, this is a reset year in terms of cap, not on the field. New stars will emerge, the team will be similarly competitive as they have been the last four, it will look different is all. The Bills are 4th from the bottom for 2025 cap availability. I don't hear this much anymore but I think people finally realize the cap is real, players you sign today determines players you cannot sign tomorrow. Yes the cap is highly manipulatable, but that does not make it fake. Also, 2025 will likely have more dead cap if they move from Von, but they will probably spread that over 2 years.

directv still exists?

Who will get 5 for 38 in the playoffs this year?

I get why you are saying that but they actually are quite proactive in building a pipeline of coaches not from within (Dorsey and Brady were both hired from outside as QB coaches) at lower levels that they develop and choose as eventual replacements at the coordinator positions.

They will need about 3-5M for in season replacement players. I though they would be more under after the Tre White post June 1 10M they got. But at that time it is top 51, no practice squad. The Bills have taken 56 players on already I believe with Clayton, Evans and Milano on IR, plus whatever the settlement was for Claypool, I would have thought they had more still. I don't believe it is possible the BIll's are over the cap, they would be non compliant and things would be happening.

Chatgpt To provide a detailed analysis of the Buffalo Bills' potential win total for the 2024 NFL season, let's break down their schedule, team strengths, and key factors that could influence their performance. ### **1. Schedule Overview:** The Bills play in the AFC East, facing the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets twice each. They also face teams from the AFC West and NFC East, as well as a couple of games against teams with similar records from last year. **Key Opponents:** - **Divisional Games:** The Dolphins and Jets are expected to be tough competition. Both teams have strong defenses and potent offenses. Splitting these games is realistic. - **AFC West:** The Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs and Chargers present significant challenges, but the Broncos and Raiders are more manageable. - **NFC East:** Games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders will be crucial. The Eagles and Cowboys are particularly tough matchups. ### **2. Team Strengths:** - **Quarterback:** Josh Allen is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, combining a strong arm with mobility. His play will be crucial for the Bills' success. - **Defense:** The Bills have a solid defense, particularly in their secondary, although they need to stay healthy to maintain their effectiveness. - **Coaching:** Sean McDermott is an experienced coach with a strong defensive background, and the continuity in the coaching staff is a positive factor. ### **3. Key Factors:** - **Injuries:** As with any NFL season, injuries can significantly impact the outcome. The Bills need to keep key players, especially Josh Allen and their defensive stars, healthy. - **Close Games:** The Bills' ability to win close games will be crucial. Last season, they were involved in several close contests, and their success in those games could be the difference between a 10-win season and a 13-win season. - **Strength of Schedule:** Based on their 2024 schedule, the Bills have one of the tougher slates, but they have the talent to compete at a high level. ### **Win Prediction:** - **Optimistic Scenario:** 12-13 wins, if they can win most of their home games and split their tougher road matchups. - **Realistic Scenario:** 10-11 wins, considering the difficulty of their schedule and the competitiveness of their division. - **Pessimistic Scenario:** 9-10 wins, if injuries or poor performance in close games hinder them. Would you like to dive deeper into specific matchups or analyze potential playoff scenarios?

More games per season is not relevant because the quality is week to week. There are 32 teams vs 28… so two more games. However they have created more viewing windows with Thursdays two Monday games Sunday morning international etc that has eaten away the benefit of two more teams. They also have gotten better at creating the schedule so that weighs in too. I am not saying two byes should not or will not happen I am just saying it is not a 100% certainty.

The networks don’t like it because it waters down the games more. The other thing is they can kill a preseason game and add the bye week to get to presidents weekend without Labor Day.

I think the wr market has maxed out and a team finally said enough.

Doing it could be something the league wants for that reason but object to “100% have to”… the league has had two bye weeks before (1993) and it did not go well.

Your name to the rescue

Why does adding one game 100% mean they need a second bye?

Nah

I don’t get the argument for Jackson over Allen.

There is a buyout option

Wrong

I was thinking about the PS the other day. Since practice squaders count on the cap and are UFA's (can be signed to anyone's 53), why does there need to be a limit? It does not seem like a competitive advantage/disadvantage...if you want 25 guys, great you have to pay them all. If it was unlimited how many do you think teams would sign? 16 is a good number but clearly teams would more if they could get more, they could opt to have less than 16 but I think everyone uses the whole thing.

I can't read this cause the sky has fallen on me

TO these two statements.... first statement: if you objectively look at the last 4 meetings, 2 regular season, 2 playoffs, they all came down the the end of the game, a play here, a play there, a bounce of the ball, etc. Very evenly matched teams where each team has won 2 of the 4. It is also true that the playoffs is what matters but I do believe there is some amount of "luck" in play here. Imaging we flip coins 4 times, you have heads, I have tails and we decide to call the 2nd and 4th flip "heads". The flips go tails heads tails heads. You won the two "playoff" games.....was there really anything different about the 2nd and 4th flip or did it "just work out that way". A football game is much more complex than a flip of a coin but my point is the teams are evenly matched and because they lose in the playoffs it is perceived a certain way. Second Statement: The Bills are one of 2 teams who have won a playoff game each of the last 4 years and by doing so they have advanced past the wild card in each, I assume you meant Divisional Round. As far as the whole post, we have seen this before in various forms, if you look at point differential over the last 4 years the Bills are a huge outlier, if you look at offensive and defensive rankings in yards or points over that same span they are an outlier....the bottom line is they have not been able to finish. DVOA is fancy stats but the conclusion is the same. The NFL comes down to a single elimination tournament. The sample size of playoffs is actually very small, none of that matters because the only thing that matters is if you win. Von MIiller kinda summed it up, keep swinging and it should happen. It does not have to but this organization has a good shot every year with the staff and QB they have.