TheElectricCompany

"Betting on Zero" gets into the Herbalife MLM model, it's a great documentary, despite making Bill Ackman out to be some kind of martyr. My wife and I have a good friend who is a National Director / Board of Directors member at a well known MLM. She has hustled for years to get where she's at and is very good at what she does. I believe she is in the Top 150 of sellers and grossed about $80K last year (key word, grossed, MLMs are notoriously for misrepresenting earnings!). Not bad money, but you'd think it be raining cash at the top. Not at all.

His passing stats are kind of where I thought they'd be (please spare me the "He's a rookie!" shtick), but his running ability is incredible. I didn't expect that at all! The accuracy / precision / whatever you want call them issues are real. I've been critical about JAs stats and even called him "Teflon Josh" because of the plethora of excuses that he's had for years. That nickname is overly harsh, but let's be real - his completion and YPA numbers suck. Those MUST improve for us to build a consistent high scoring offense. Getting more offensive playmakers (can we find a Christian McCaffery type???) and a better line will help, but it's primarily on JA has to make that leap. Either way, 5 TDs in a game don't lie. I can't think of bust QBs who've put up 5 TDs in a game, can you? The guy is a dual threat playmaker. I'll enjoy my visit to the crow buffet in the offseason and look forward to seeing his progression in September 2019.

Average Air Yards Differential (AYD) - did you notice Drew Brees is the worst passer in this category? Air Yards Differential is calculated by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes. He may be highest "air yards per attempt", but his 6.3 YPA is only bested by Josh Rosen. Cam torched the league his rookie year. Remember when he threw for 400 yards in his first start? Josh is a far better runner than advertised, but he's not in the same ballpark as Cam throwing the ball.

Allen doesn't get the benefit of the doubt. Rodgers does.

Offensive talent of any shape and form.

As usual, Teflon Josh is in full effect. Stats don't matter for this guy. Everything can be explained away. 2BD loves to talk about Allen's drops & throwaways and come up with some adjusted completion percentage. Of course, we don't do this for the other 31 QBs, so it's a very accurate comparison. Did anyone see the Fox stats about Aaron Rodgers and his 50 throwaways? No other team has more than 30!

He'll play again, no doubt. He's talented enough for NFL teams to overlook the incident. I don't expect the Bills to go after him, but stranger things have happened. There has been no shortage of smoke around Shady lately. On a side note, I don't know why these star athletes allow their crew to have cameras when they go out. Seriously. Go rent out a bar, arrange transportation there, hire security, allow no cameras and random ass people to show up, have a good time, arrange transportation home, repeat.

NCAA numbers: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons NFL numbers....pretty straight forward. He's the 33rd rated PFF passer, and if you want to get into total and rate stats, his numbers are in the bottom 20%. I hope there is a day where all the stats scream "Hey, Josh is a top 10 QB!", but they never did leading up to the draft, and they are nowhere near that now.

Fair enough. "Isn't that bad" to me means that he's at least average, I don't see average accuracy out of Josh. I could throw some statistics out there on the matter, but there's no need. We all know he becomes "Teflon Josh" whenever you want to find numbers that support the hype.

There are many positive attributes I see with Josh, but great accuracy? Nope.

Pretty much my feelings on J.A. right now. I'm sick of glorifying 180 yard, 1 TD performances. Give me 310 yards and 3 TDs with no picks, 8.0 YPA, and 66% completion. It doesn't have to happen weekly, but I want to see a few of those out of Allen before I start jumping with joy.

From a yardage perspective, we're #1 in the league against the pass and #2 in total defense. PPG is poor, but I think that's more reflective of terrible offensive play that doesn't allow us to control the time of procession. It just doesn't matter as much as it used to. A top 5 offense is worth substantially more than a top 5 defense, and you should build your team accordingly.

Elite teams have off games. Thursday on the road? Yeah, the Saints hit the snooze button. This was not an example of anything. Saints will drop a 40 burger on the Bucs next week and we'll forget all about this.

The reality of free agency is that you're going to overpay. There are plenty of teams with cap space and young QBs that they want to surround with talent.

I think his progression is tied with the scheme and chemistry with teammates. Do I think he's becoming a more efficient and consistent passer? Not really.

Good post. I generally agree, and do feel that Allen has progressed, although not as much as others. I don't mind that he runs the ball. It's not ideal long term, but he's a rookie, have at it. Let the guy get first downs and build some momentum and confidence. Keep doing it until a defense can stop it. We've been spoiled this year by the sheer brilliance of many QBs. 9+ YPA, 70%+ completion, 400+ yard performances, ridiculous TD/INT rates, etc. I love all of that, and want Allen to be a part of that club, but until he starts "slicing and dicing" defenses, I have my concerns he'll get there.

Elite playmakers will always go high in the draft. While I question a team like the Giants getting Barkley, he's clearly been a tremendous player and will be a major help to their new QB. The league is transitioning toward RBs that have equal ability running and catching the ball, with the ability to line up anywhere on the field. Barkley, Kamara, Hunt and McCaffery are the new ideal. I don't think you can count on finding those guys outside the 1st long term. As teams wisen up, Hunt & Kamara types are NOT going to fall through the cracks.

I love it. Browns have been a dumpster fire for years, Baker is trying to put some respeck on their name.

2001 Hurricanes had Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Kellen Winslow and Roscoe Parrish. I think their offense would stand a chance. We're both guessing here. I think the right NCAA team against a historically bad (I think DL/OL play is the #1 factor) NFL team could keep it interesting.

He reminds of Tim Tebow running the ball. Not sure he's as fast or strong as Tebow was, but it's close.

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs.

I don't think the gap is as big as people think.

I think Allen could improve, but Mahomes is mastering chess, while Allen is learning how to play checkers. I don't know if he'll be able to pickup chess.

As discussed pre-draft, there are still plenty of scouting personnel who focus more on physical tools, and what a player could be if they are in their "system" , versus what they have actually done.

I don't think we've seen enough deep balls from Josh to make that claim. Of course he's got arm talent, but accuracy is the key ingredient. Mike Vick is my #1, a true "flick of the wrist" and the ball was gone.