Sammy Watkins' Rib

Yeah but he doesn't play the dime a dozen position.

I think what the OP is missing is the potential upside to keeping Zay for the 2019 season vs the upside of not keeping him for the this season. I don't see any great benefit to releasing him. On the flip side, this will be Zay's 3rd year. Some receivers are known for the light finally going off in their 3rd year and production going up. Couple that with it being Zay's second year in the same system with the same QB and you could see why there is a chance for greater upside. I also recall a couple of big plays left on the field last year where Zay was running wide open but Allen missed him because Allen was a rookie. We might hit on those this year.

Same here. Woods, Goodwin, Hogan all three should have been retained. Or at least a good case could be made for keeping all three. I know you can't keep everybody. Oddly enough, it's Watkins, the most talented of all of them that still hasn't bested his years in Buffalo on either of his new teams since leaving.

Whaley built a playoff team but that was it. Beane is trying to build a perennial playoff team. He's found the biggest piece of the puzzle in the QB, at least we think and hope. How these other pieces fit could be the difference.

No brainer i know, but Beane's success will hinge on the success of Allen. Allen looks like a Franchise QB in the making so so far so good.

I'd argue our pass rush has been below average to bad for the last two seasons now. If someone told me the lack of pass rush was a massive hole I wouldn't argue with that. Whether that means going after an elite pass rushing DE or DT, doesn't matter to me but we should be looking for someone that can create that pressure consistently. Like the OP, I feel a trade up is a more likely than a trade back. But you never know.

This guy had multiple huge returns against us in our loss to the Jets last year didn't he? Heck, even if he doesn't do much for us, that could mean one more W in the win column just by the fact that we don't have to face him twice. Ray Ray showed so much promise last pre-season with Allen. I want to see what he can do again this year.

Dude was the #4 WR on the Chargers behind Allen, Williams and Benjamin, never lived up to expectations and now he is going to get paid like a low level #1. Crazy. Certainly hope we don't get involved.

Assuming Allen continues down the path of becoming a franchise QB for years to come then his selection is by far Beane's greatest achievement.

I'd be good going this route. BPA in the first. WR rounds 2 and 3.

Shouldn't one confirm the player is on board before reporting a trade. Especially a player known to be as big a headcase as AB? He doesn't want to play with a HOF QB still playing at a high level of course he is going to veto a trade sending him to play for a team with a young QB that is still learning the game.

Is he at the top of his game though? He'll be 31 at the start of the season. Lot's of mileage. I don't think he is worth the risk of throwing Allen under the bus and causing problems. He needs to either go to a team with a stopgap QB like Denver with Flacco or an elite and established QB like Rodgers, Wilson or Brees.

If he comes here and puts up a 1000 yards per season. Then so what. He'll be like Stevie Johnson except he would be paid twice as much and a headcase to our young QB.

Would love to draft this guy. He's going to go very early second round I bet.

ABA Anyone But Antonio. Don't want this bum. Hoping he goes somewhere with a below average QB. He'll go from averaging 1500 yards per year to 1,001.

It's possible. Both Murray, who is predicted to go #1 this year, and Allen have or were big questions marks as to whether or no they will work out in the NFL. But the elite skills are tangible for both. Murray's college resume was elite where as Allen's was not. I think that would prevent a team like the Cards to move off of a former 1st round pick the year prior to take a QB like Allen.

Taylor's biggest problem was not reading the defense. He was either too slow to read the defense or failed to read it entirely. That is when he left yards and points on the field. That will also be the number one thing Allen and any rookie QB needs to work on. If Allen can improve on that alone, his accuracy won't be an issue. If he can't improve his ability to read the defense then he will need to improve his accuracy. As i have pointed out in other threads Allen trended up big time looking at his final six starts compared to his first six games played. The only metric that did not improve was accuracy. But he became a better QB in all other meaningful metrics. It's a small sample size, but despite not improving his accuracy he improved his winning percentage from a 2-3 record in his first five starts to 3-3 in his last six starts.

Allen improved as the season went on. That even accumulated in him having by far his best game of the year in his final game. This thread specifically is looking at Allen vs. Rosen as it looks specifically at the immediate post draft reactions to the Bills taking Allen with Rosen still on the board and coming off just a few picks later. The raw QB rating stats for the entire season for both Allen and Rosen are nearly identical. Allen has Rosen beat by a mere 1.2 points. But how did each do down the stretch? As teams got more film on them and as they themselves learned the game? Answer: Allen's stats got better in ever single meaningful statistical category except for completion percentage. YPA improved. TD:INT ratio improved. Sack % improved. Passing ypg increased. And we all know how elite he was throwing in his rushing ability. Rosen on the other hand saw ever single statistical category decline in his final six games except for completion percentage which was nearly identical. YPA decreased. TD:INT ratio decreased. Sack % increased. Passing ypg decreased.

Funny thing is too, he wasn't even this dominant a runner in college. I posted the stats before in another thread, but Allen's six games to finish the season may be the greatest six game stretch any QB has ever had in terms of rushing yards, rushing TD's and efficiency rushing. Only Mike Vick has one six game stretch that is on par with the one Allen had to finish the season last year.

Totally agree OP. Everyone wants to talk about Allen's accuracy. It does need to improve but I'm convinced it only needs to be improved a bit for him to be successful. Say, 58-59%. The biggest positives were the growth we saw from Allen in TD:INT and sacks per attempt. Throw in the ability to know when and how to run which lead to an insanely high YPC and you have a QB that can easily win half his games. Then all we need is Allen to increase his completion percentage by a few points and add an improved running game and we are a couple games above .500 and in the playoffs.

Thanks. I was wanting more of a breakdown on the passes. Yeah, i had figured it was at least 12 ypc in his final six games. I had calculated it to almost 9 ypc without deducting for the kneel downs and the 3rd 4th and 1 conversions.

The quote in bold by Daboll could be a reason why Allen's YPC sky rocketted in his final six starts of the season. Taking what the defense gives him with his legs. It would be nice if we could see these stats broken down from his first six starts vs. his last six starts. I'm betting they are similar but I do think we would see some improvement. His biggest improvement as a QB between his first six starts and last six were in number of sacks taken and TD:INT percentage. Those two things tell me he had learned to limit the big mistakes.

Rating mock drafts based on if they accurately predict correct player to correct team is the wrong way to look at it. That's damn near impossible. Especially outside of the top 5 picks. And even the top five picks can get screwy as we often see. The way to judge a mock is how many players they correctly projected in the first round. And the order in which each player is taken at a specific position. If you have one player being the first taken at his position but he ends up being taken 5th in reality that will drag your Mock down. That's the way I look at it at least.

He's got great postseason numbers but that's as much to do with just being on a great team and having opportunity. Is Wes Welker a HOFer? They basically played the same position in the same offense. Welker's numbers are basically double Edeleman's. At 32, Edleman probably only has two really good years left in him. So I don't think he'll come close to even matching what Welker did in the regular season. I'd say no with the caveat that if the Patriots continue to win and go deep in the playoffs, then his postseason resume might be too much to ignore. He already has three rings. If he finishes his career with 4 rings, one super bowl mvp and the all time leader in postseason receptions and yards then I don't see how you can keep him out even if his regular season numbers are not even in the top 100 all time.

I'm guessing the charts for Miami and the Jets aren't much better either. Pats have never had to worry about another 12+ win team in the division for the last 18+ years.