BarleyNY

Jordan Reed Injury Predictor Yikes!

Glad you saw he is on a 5 year contract. I couldn’t find that info. If that’s the case, then I think you nailed it.

When I lived in the Cleveland area, I got to know the Special Teams Coordinator, Chris Tabor, and his family a little bit. (Our daughters swam together.) Not the HC, but still. I’ll tell you this, it seemed like every second he wasn’t working he was with his family. His wife was a stay at home mom. I was always impressed with the whole family, how respectful and happy the kids were. Heck, how happy and nice the whole family seemed to be. It was nice to see that with someone who had such a demanding job. As for the media guy, he actually didn’t say much (and he wasn’t wrong), but he shouldn’t have said anything at all. As a parent, I’m not surprised people would be upset. It’s a very short clip (<30) if you want to listen.

23 reps of 225# on the bench would’ve been tough to fake

Good article, but I would’ve liked to have seen SI dig into the harm this does to the kids. Parents who have their own identities yoked so tightly to their children’s is incredibly detrimental to their kids. It goes way beyond simply being proud of their kids and becomes very toxic. The result is kids never learn to deal with failure and can’t function properly as adults and parents whose identities are inappropriately tied to their children’s success. For those players that do make it professionally I get that parents want to help protect their (even adult) children from being taken advantage of. But I think they cross a line when their livelihoods hare tied to their children’s earnings and success. That’s a major conflict of interest. For the average kids, there are so many travel teams, premier teams, camps ,private trainers, etc., etc. They’re all selling the dream and telling parents how great their kids are, but they’re all just out to make a buck. My daughter plays premier soccer locally and regionally. Every last parent (other than me) on the regional team thinks their daughter is getting a D1 scholarship. It was all I could do not to laugh out loud. I doubt that there’s a single one. If there is, there be no way to know which girl right now anyway. We’re likely bumping back down to travel next season. Premier isn’t worth the money. The coaching isn’t any better and I don’t like being lied to and treated like a sucker.

While we shouldn’t write off Shaq 100%, I expect the Bills to proceed as if he won’t be. That said, none of us know the most important piece of information regarding this - the relationship between the Bills and Shaq. It’s also possible that his play will take a big leap forward, but that’s unlikely. It it happens, we’ve got a different situation and tagging him would make sense. Another unlikely situation is that his play falls off significantly. Easy decision there too. Most likely he’ll play at about the same level as last season. If that happens I’d expect that he’d want to go elsewhere to try to prove himself in a system that fits him better. He’d probably get a better initial contract and that would be preferable to signing a backup level contract here. Plus he’d have a chance at a better deal down the road too. It’d likely net us a comp pick too. We will have to let the season play out before anything happens, obviously.

Reading his quotes all I can say is: I had no idea he was that funny.

Yep. You’re right. I can’t believe I missed that many, but I did. Rare, yes. But not as rare as I thought.

That doesn’t make sense. All of those options would’ve been available if they had franchised Watkins. That includes the ability to trade him which is an option they otherwise would not have had (unless they had tagged him first). This is the dead season for football. There’s no harm in what-ifing situations like this, but let’s keep the odds of it happening real. If teams want to keep 1st round picks, then they pick up their option or extend them early. There’s was no higher level game being played with Lawson or Watkins. Since the 5th year option was added, exactly one player who did not have one of those things happen stayed with the team that drafted him - Mark Ingram with the Saints. Lawson is gone after this season. It’s better for him and it’s better for us.

Yup. He belongs on a 3-4 team. That’s what he was drafted to do here. We have just kept him around because he’s serviceable at a premium position and we’ve needed him. He’ll go to a team where he fits and is therefore more valuable.

Totally agree. It also helps to have consistency with scheme and coaches who can develop players. The Wrex hire really boned us in those regards.

The positive PED test worried me more than the injury - and the injury did worry me. Not only is he looking at a year long suspension if he tests positive again, there’s also the risk that he won’t return to form without juicing again. I remember Shawn Merriman oscillating between Pro Bowls and below average play after testing positive. I hope Murphy doesn’t need them and plays big for us this year, but I worry. We don’t have anyone else to give us a pass rush opposite Hughes.

You were underselling the situation by a fair bit. You wrote that he has a “very small contract compared to others” and that he could be released next year with “almost no dead cap”. That wasn’t accurate so I provided details. Also a player’s contract is important in BOTH contexts - relative to players at the same position around the league and to the other players on his own team. He’s got cap hits that will be around 4.6% of the total league cap this year and next. That’s significant. He’s got the 5th highest on the team and 33rd among edge players in the league. Also significant (not “very small”). The $1.75M hit if cut next offseason matters. It isn’t that bad, but it’s not “nothing“. Players get cut for less than that all the time. Again, in no sense is this some horrible albatross of a contract, but it isn’t nothing either.

While I don't think his contract is crippling or anything, it's pretty big relative to the roster. 3 years, $22.5M with the 5th biggest cap hit on the team this season and next. If he's cut he'd have dead money of $6.5M this off-season or $1.75M next. Again, it's not an enormous contract, but it isn't small either. This is definitely a make or break year for Murphy. We need him to play well. It's important for him too because he won't see the last year of his deal if he doesn't.

They already signed Hughes to a 2 year extension through 2021. He’ll be a 34 year old free agent after that. I think that’ll probably be about it for him. I am not too worried about much happening this offseason that will use up cap space. The only big money players that have a chance to be available are Jadeveon Clowney and Trent Williams. They’d both be worth using cap on, but neither is really being shopped at this point and I don’t see the Bills giving up what it’d take for Clowney. They will definitely have to make some signings next offseason - OL, RB, CB, DE, etc. - but they are in good cap shape and can do it. It won’t be a hardship. Here’s a look at contracts by year, including expiration: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/yearly/cap/

Lets hope so

Also it is cash outlays that have to be at 90% of the current league cap. Signing bonuses for premium free agents or extensions help to hit that minimum. And it’s calculated on a four year moving average. We will be fine. The Bills rolling over the excess cap is as safe of a bet as there is. Failing to make the roll over request would make them the first team to ever not do it (since the league started allowing it).

I don’t think we will see a 27/23 split between offense and defense. I’d expect one more DB and one less RB for starters.

The Bills call part starts at about 4:25 on the video.

I don’t think you can take anything regarding the Browns seriously when it comes from Mike Silver. He’s been a huge Hue Jackson sycophant for a long time and it is well known. Here’s a tweet from PFT’s managing editor:

That’s fair. If he shows he has something left in the tank then maybe there could be a way that he stays. It’ll really depend on what he does want. It could be any of the following: - the last nickel - to run behind the best possible OL - to start - the best shot at a ring - to be close to home I honestly don’t know what he’d care most about, but I do believe that he still has to earn his spot here this season. Then if he plays well we have something to discuss, but that’s only if the Bills haven’t moved on already. It’s possible that it all works out and he’s here in 2020, but a lot has to work out. I just don’t see it as more than a very long shot.

That’s just wishful thinking IMO. McCoy is a very highly paid RB who is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a terrible season. Even if a good team does find itself with injury issues at RB, why would they trade for Shady? Why would they pay a draft pick and over $6M on the chance that he regained his form? There would be better options for them out there.

Not sure if you’re serious about extending him...... At any rate, if Shady remains on the team this season I think he’d bounce back somewhat from last season but won’t be what he used to be. He’ll be a good, but an expensive rotational RB. That said, I can see him being a cut if it looks like we have 3 other good backs. No team would be interested in his contract unless he is tearing it up early in the season. In that (unlikely IMO) case, why would we we trade him?

And that’s why all of the premium culture guys get the big bucks and the talented ones play for league minimum.

Haynesworth did it right after he got paid. Pierce didn’t do this in the right order.