mjt328

My thoughts exactly. Once a team gets deep into the playoffs, opponents are very good and games are a 50-50 shot. The best strategy for winning a Super Bowl is consistency and sustainability. Not mortgaging your future for ONE chance at a championship. Draft 3-4 good NFL starters every single year. Don't overburden the salary cap with stupid contracts. Build a team with strong depth that can weather injuries, and replace free agents who leave for more money. The goal should be to win 11+ games every season. Do that, and you are bound to get some first-round byes. String together some good playoff games, and chances are you will win it at least once.

Exactly. Some young QBs start strong, then fade off as defenses begin to gather film and notice tendencies. Some young QBs start slow, but improve with learning and development.

If you are referring specifically to deep shots, I think it's a mix of three things: 1. Play Design 2. Offensive Line 3. Josh Allen Outside of the New England game, the receivers are not running very many deep routes to begin with. Most plays seem designed to get people open within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Bills offensive attack is a complete 180 from what we saw last year. The few times we've called for deep shots, the offensive line hasn't held up long enough for the QB to get the pass off.... or Allen hasn't thrown an accurate pass where the WR can get to it. It also doesn't help that Robert Foster has been dinged up. With him out of the lineup, our only deep threat is John Brown. Teams know that and are going to bring safety help to his side of the field. Based on all the above factors, I think the Bills are doing the right thing by taking what the defense gives them. Yardage-wise, we are playing very well and significantly out gaining our opponents. By sustaining longer drives, we are helping keep the defense fresh. The problem is that we keep making dumb mistakes at the wrong times (penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, missed blocks), which are killing productive drives and keeping points off the board. If the Bills can clean-up their sloppy mistakes, I think the points will come.

As of right now, Josh Allen is on pace to have improved his completion percentage by almost 8 points - while also increasing his YPA by almost a half-yard from last year. He's also on pace to throw for over 50 yards per game more than last season. Up until the New England loss, most observers were stating that Allen had taken great strides in his accuracy, pocket presence and ability to read a defense. Bottom line. He is not going to have the same numbers. The Patriots Defense meanwhile, is literally setting NFL records for greatness. We are talking 85 Bears level of dominance. Yes, Allen looked terrible on Sunday. Worse than he's looked since the early part of his rookie year. But I'm not sure that measuring his performance against what could end up being the best unit in NFL history, is really a good benchmark for saying he is "regressing" as a passer. I'll agree that Allen is not good enough... right now. We ultimately need him to become a Top 10 quarterback in this league by (at least) Year 4-5, or it will be time to look in a different direction. We should accept nothing less. At this point of his career (15 starts), I think he is only in the #20-25 range -- alongside the other guys from his draft class like Mayfield, Darnold and Jackson. But last year, he was around #30-35... so we are seeing a slow climb. I've already stated on this board that I'm concerned about Allen's reckless turnovers. He has a whopping 11 turnovers in only four games, and it actually could have been more. He's getting baited into the same stupid throws EVERY SINGLE WEEK, and this time it finally cost us the game. There are times he's also holding the ball too long, and failing to spot open receivers. At the same time, there are plenty of reasons for optimism and numerous ways to mark his improvement over the last 12 months. It's foolish to only see his struggles and ignore where he's finding success.

It's been widely observed that Cody Ford is playing very poorly at Right Tackle right now. The offense seems to play better and have less protection breakdowns with Ty Nsekhe on the field. This also may be a reason our offense is so inconsistent from drive to drive. Most teams prefer to establish continuity with the O-Line. Our coaching staff seems determined to give Ford rotational reps anyway, deal with the growing pains and hope it helps accelerate his development. It could be argued that Ford needs to be pulled out completely, and he needs to get better in practice before getting pushed onto the field. Our coaches see it differently, and I guess only time will tell if they are doing the right thing. Personally, I would like to see Brian Daboll make some adjustments to help the O-Line and take some pressure off Josh Allen. Run the ball more. Call for more quick two-step passing plays. Put the running back into the backfield as an extra blocker. Around the league, other teams are doing everything they can to help their young QBs with extra protection and easy passes. Daboll puts Allen back there with five receivers, an empty backfield, and expects him to attack every secondary 15-20 yards downfield.

Wouldn't they just call up Davis Webb from the practice squad?

Trent Edwards was not ruined. He got off to a great start in his career (meaning about 5-6 games), until opposing defensive coordinators figured out he was scared to throw downfield. Teams started pushing up on the short routes, and Edwards simply never adjusted. This is why early success (or struggles) are not always indicative of how a QB will perform long-term. When a young/rookie QB enters the league, MOST defensive coordinators respond by sending lots of pressure and blitzing. Why? Because the hardest thing for young football players to adjust to is the speed of the professional game. By increasing pressure, you are multiplying this even more. Most of the time, this is a great strategy. However, some young QBs actually respond well to the blitz and find some early success. As time goes along, defensive coordinators start adjusting and finding strategies that work better for that particular player.

This is absolutely infuriating. It really makes you wonder what the Special Teams Coordinator is getting paid for. The punt unit has been on the field 20 times in four games (basically five punts per game). The coach could spend an ENTIRE DAY analyzing one play from that week's game, looking at what went wrong on film and trying to fix it. There was clearly confusion in both the Jets/Giants games, but nothing was ever done by Heath Farwell to correct it. This wasn't a fluke play, where "genius" Belichick did something fancy or a single player missed his assignment. This was a situation where our coaching staff was negligent, failed to prepare the players for what to do on a simple punt block, and our opponent caught it on film.

By the middle/end of Year 3, you can usually tell where a QB's career is headed. If a quarterback shows occasional flashes of greatness, but remains inconsistent (Dak Prescott for a recent example), you may want to let him have a 4th season to prove himself. In response to your comment about Minshew.... Every QB has a different progression. Some start off great, then hit a wall. Some start off poorly, but eventually develop into great players. It's possible that Jacksonville is simplifying the offense for Minshew right now, which is giving him some easy throws and success. If so, defenses will ultimately catch on.

Maybe there were some check-downs available that Allen didn't take. That's very possible. But I'm starting to notice trends in Brian Daboll's playcalling. And he doesn't seem to call many timing routes (curls, quick outs, slants). He is also trending way too pass-heavy, especially with a young/mistake-prone QB and an elite defense keeping scoring tight. There is nothing that drives me crazier than coordinators who fail to adjust their plan of attack, and keep doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results. You could see the Patriots offense throwing everything at the Bills offense. Deep shots, screens, slants, pick plays, draws, play action, etc. But nothing was consistently working for them. The Bills kept stubbornly running the same plays all day long.

I can tell this isn't a very popular take. But yesterday's game was very concerning when it came to Josh Allen. For the first time since he was drafted, we are starting to see a legitimate stunt in his progress and a regression in his game. As Bills fans, winning is obviously the ultimate goal. Many are just happy that we hung with the Patriots until the last drive, and that our defense shut down the mighty Tom Brady. I am trying to look more long-term. Because I know that if we are going to eventually retake the AFC East and become a true contender, we need to see Josh Allen develop into a Top 10 Quarterback in this league. He's still got plenty of time to become that guy. But yesterday's game was clearly a step in the wrong direction. It's easy to make excuses about Allen's "hero ball" moments. Yes, every QB makes those kinds of throws occasionally when trying too hard to make a play. The problem with Allen, is that he keeps doing the same thing EVERY SINGLE WEEK and it's not registering in his head. He did it in the preseason. He did it Week 1 and Week 3. Then he did it twice against the Patriots yesterday. Defenses are learning to bait Allen into those throws, and he's just not learning from his mistakes. Anytime a young QB starts making the same mistakes over and over, it should set-off the alarm bells. We could have lost both the Jets and Bengals games because of those throws, and it's totally fair to say we lost to the Patriots because of the INTs.

I'm usually not a fan that likes pointing fingers at coaches, but today's playcalling from Brian Daboll was atrocious. It seems like we came into the game absolutely DETERMINED to hit a big play in the passing game. Almost like we saw something in film during the week, and figured we could attack the Patriots secondary downfield. Which is fine. But it only took about 2-3 drives to realize Belichick's defensive strategy was to stop the deeper passes. This was a day for patience and rhythm in the passing game. This was a day for controlling the ball with our run game. Where were the slants, the quick curls, the quick outs, or the screens? Why didn't we run some draws? When Josh Allen was standing back there holding the ball for 5-6 seconds waiting for someone to get open, why didn't we have a check-down available. Every bit of success we had on offense was on the underneath routes, or on big runs by Frank Gore. It really appeared we made some adjustments at halftime. But on the next drive, we were back to the long-developing pass plays - which continued to FAIL miserably.

Found a website that keeps track of penalties: www.nflpenalties.com I'm assuming it's got legit numbers. Pats were called for offensive holding two times in Week 1, three times in Week 2 and then once in Week 3. Not sure anything can be determined by just looking at those numbers.

Forget what the media is spouting. The Bills are not on the Patriots level. Yet. And there is nothing wrong with admitting that as a fan. Of course it doesn't mean we can't keep the game close or possibly even win on Sunday. I just think fans are setting themselves up for a really bad weekend, if they are judging whether the Bills are "legit" or "real" based strictly on how they perform this Sunday. There will be a time when Josh Allen will be expected to perform like a Top 10 Quarterback, and anything short of 12 wins and the AFC East Title will be a significant disappointment. But we aren't quite there yet. Allen has only 14 starts under his belt. This was Beane's first offseason with cap space, and the ability to draft BPA (without worrying about getting his quarterback). If we can win 10 games, ***** a Wild Card spot and see consistent progress from the guy under center -- then I will consider 2019 a massively successful season.

Honestly, I'm not a big fan. I'm skeptical if their approach is built for long-term and consistent success. Go back about 4-5 seasons. Similar to the Bills, the Rams were a perpetual 7-9 and 6-10 team without a Quarterback to get them over the hump. Unlike the Bills, they had two cornerstone pieces on offense (Todd Gurley) and defense (Aaron Donald) to build around. So instead of totally deconstructing their roster, the Rams kept the majority of their team intact. To get the QB, they mortgaged much of their 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts to trade-up and land Jared Goff. With the extra cap space available from having a QB on his first contract, they have also been able to trade/sign numerous veterans. The problem is, Goff just signed an extension for $134 million. They recently handed big contracts to both Gurley and Donald. They will soon be faced with really tough salary cap decisions, and won't have the space to sign everyone. Once that happens, the holes on the roster will need to be filled by younger players. And I'm not sure their draft classes from the past 4 seasons are up to the task.

Great post. But I have to disagree with this part here. I don't think the Bills are overachieving at all. To me, they have clearly been the better team all 3 games. Their mistakes were the only thing that made the scores close.

The Browns/Jets are a perfect example of what I've been saying. You can't build a TEAM by just going out and picking up a handful of stars in trades/free agency (Odell Beckham, Le'Veon Bell). You need a cohesive vision - starting with the front office, working together with the coaching staff and then trickling down into the locker room. You need consistently solid drafting, and strong depth across the entire roster. And you need a culture that ties everything together. Talent is absolutely important. But it's very rare to see 1-2 guys (especially ones known for being me-first) to carry the other 51 guys alone. The Bills approach may be slower to yield results. But eventually, I think what Beane/McDermott are building will transform this franchise from a consistent loser into a consistent contender.

Disagree with those expecting a low-scoring game. Unfortunately, our defensive scheme plays right into Tom Brady's hands. We like to keep catches in front of us, and limit offenses to short passes... which just happens to be his specialty. Already this season, I've noticed some weak spots against covering screens and swing passes. In our four match-ups since McDermott became the coach, the Patriots have put up 23, 37, 25 and 34 points. Not exactly shut-down performances. And I suspect the Pats were playing somewhat conservatively against us, knowing we were incapable of actually scoring points. The only way this changes is if the Bills can bring tight-press-coverage, and heavy pressure up the middle. After our D-Line bombed against the terrible Bengals blocking, I'm not optimistic. On the other side, it's really hard to find flaws in anything New England has done so far. They have totally shut-down their first three opponents, not letting up a single offensive touchdown. They seem to be strong at all three levels. With that said, I think the Bills can move the ball and score 20-25 points... IF they put all the dumb mistakes behind them. This is the type of game where a dual-threat QB and versatile offense makes all the difference. Bill Belichick will certainly find a way to take something our offense wants to do, and we will need to attack them in a completely opposite way. That seems to be the goal of both McDermott and Daboll. I'm just not certain we are quite there yet. I know that fans don't want to hear it, but I think we are totally mismatched on both sides. Out team is much better than years past, but we still aren't on the Patriots level. That doesn't mean we can't win. It just means we need to play WAY better than we have at any point this season. We need a great game from the interior pass rush. We need tight coverage and flawless tackling at all levels. We need a better performance from the offensive line. We need the coaches and Josh Allen ready to adjust the gameplan at a moments notice. And we cannot turn the ball over.

Curious. Does anyone know how many times New England was called for holding yesterday?

True. But it would have been nice to have Shady available, especially with Singletary sidelined indefinitely. And this was the problem. The coaches didn't think Shady would be happy as the #3 back.

Based on my high expectations for this season and the teams we played during the first month, I'm not really surprised at the 3-0 start. The team has actually played worse than I expected, considering the turnovers and dumb mistakes. With that said, I'm not going to judge how "real" the Bills are by how they perform against the Patriots this Sunday. Most of the people who follow the NFL have already mentally handed New England the Lombardi trophy, and the real question is how close they can get to 17-0 along the way. If the Bills can win 10 games this season and make the playoffs, I'll feel content that we are moving in the right direction.

Frank Gore is a very good between-the-tackles runner. Love having him in goal line situations. I'm still somewhat baffled at the decision to take TJ Yeldon over LeSean McCoy though. Even if McCoy has lost several steps, he's still way better than Yeldon. It sounds like Beane was worried about McCoy not handling a timeshare well, and wanted to get Devon Singletary more involved. It kinda sucks if that was the reasoning, because we really downgraded by letting him go.

Josh Allen has been mostly positive this season, combined with a bunch of frustrating mistakes. You can see Pro-Bowl superstar potential. You can see the clutch-gene, and the ability to completely take over when things are clicking. He's understanding defensive coverages and seeing the field better every week. His accuracy has improved greatly, and should no longer be a big concern. He's making plays from the pocket first, and using his legs as a secondary weapon. At the same time, he's often careless with the football and needs to learn when to take a sack or incompletion. He also seems to hold the ball too long at times. Let's not forget that Allen has only started 14 games in the NFL. He's still got PLENTY of time to improve the weak points of his game.

Please. Have the Bills faced a half-decent offense yet? We talk about how great our defense is, but our guys have let up a handful of touchdowns already. The Patriots haven't let up an offensive touchdown in their last 4 games (counting back to the last Super Bowl). The Rams are generally considered one of the best in the league. What they are doing is ridiculously impressive.

I was watching the Ravens-Chiefs game on another screen. Both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were CONSTANTLY throwing up ridiculous jump-balls. Regardless, we are seeing to much of it from Josh Allen.