2003Contenders

This one I just don't get. Not taking anything away from Purdy because he has operated exceptionally within that offense. But that offense is LOADED, has a fantastic offensive line and arguably the best play caller in the league as head coach. Compare that to what Mahomes, Allen (or even Stroud) have surrounding them.

The good news is that the Bills still more or less control their own destiny. The bad news is that they are in this dire situation thanks to ridiculous losses to inferior teams like the Jets, Pat and Broncos. It is sad that they are in the position of being behind a number of much suckier teams in the conference. I will say that the playoffs (win or go home) starts for them against the Chiefs. If they do manage to go 5-0 from here on out they will at least be battle-tested heading into the playoffs.

If the Bills can play the way they did against the Eagles -- minus all of the sabotaging on the part of the officials -- I believe that they very well WILL run the table. Also, on their side is the fact that Miami has not managed to beat a team with a winning record in quite some time. They will face 3 such teams down the stretch -- so if the trend continues, the Bills could win the division at 11-6 (just as they did in 2021). Lastly, the other AFC teams currently ahead of them (Colts, Browns, Texans, Steelers, Broncos) all play many games against each other. So, even if Miami does win the division, the Bills still have a legitimate shot at a wild card.

McD's biggest problem is that like many defensive-minded head coaches, he cannot step back and realize that as a HEAD COACH his responsibilities must shift, especially depending on the personnel and where the team's talents truly lie. There have historically been many coaches like this in the history of the NFL, coaches who were good or even near-great whose contempt for their own offense allowed their teams to underachieve. Back in the 70s George Allen had a generational talent in Sonny Jurgenson -- and chose to bench him in favor of the game manager Billy Kilmer. Buddy Ryan ascribed to the motto that he only wanted his offense to score 17 points and not turn the ball over because he was confident that his defense could win any such game. Never mind that he had Randall Cunningham, Keith Jackson, Cris Carter, etc. playing on the offensive side of the ball. McD seems to have that same mind-set. It's like he believes he will get more glory/satisfaction if the team wins because of the defense rather than the offense. You know, keep it close and hope that the team can pull it out in the 4th quarter. That may be fine when your offense sucks and you are trying to hide deficiencies hoping that a strong defense can pull it out in the end. Dick Jauron kept us in a lot of close games and finished with multiple 7-9 records with friggin' JP Losman at QB using this concept. But McD can't seem to get it through his head that: 1. Right now (especially with all of the injuries on defense) the offense is the better unit. 2. The defense has NOT been doing what is necessary to stop opponents late in the game. 3. The team's record with him as head coach is abysmal in close games So the concept of buttoning down the offense and keeping it close into the 4th quarter actually works AGAINST the team's best interest rather than in favor of it. And I am not sure what can be done to get him to realize this and change his mindset. It does seem like (miscues in the Philly game aside), since the Dorsey firing he's been more open to the offense doing its thing, rather than trying to limit Josh Allen. The playoffs are NOW, given that any loss from here on out could spell doom for the post-season, so we will see how he coaches down the stretch.

Except... the play you were talking about was NOT in a goal-to-go situation. It netted the Eagles 5 yards, and a first down conversion en route to an eventual TD. In that situation it was a bone-headed move by Phillips. He is responsible for entirely too many of these types of bone-headed moves this season.

It will probably take going 5-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. If the team does that it is hard to imagine McD being kicked to the curb. Also, if the offense continues to perform as it has the last 2 weeks under Brady, I think he definitely becomes the "permanent" OC. In this scenario, I think McD will promote someone to DC, but it will likely be in name only as he will continue to press all the buttons.

I think the distinction here is that in the Chargers game, the ruling on the field was a fumble. In our game the ruling on the field was an incomplete pass. In both cases it was close enough either way that the play was unlikely to be overruled. For conspiracy theorists, compare that to the last drive in regulation where the officials ruled a fumble on Hurts that was (rightfully) reversed to an incomplete pass. The announcers were complimentary of the refs for having let the play go on and NOT blow the whistle knowing that it would be reviewed and overturned if need be. Conversely, with Brown's catch-no catch, they did NOT do the same thing. The former was very clearly going to be over-turned, whereas the latter's call would have probably stood either way. Hmmm.

The only thing I would argue is that (to me) a missed FG should qualify as a turnover -- and, alas, there were 2 of those yesterday, which would put us at a negative turnover margin. In fact, you could argue that despite all the blunders in the game, it was their kicker's ability to make good on a 60-yarder versus our kicker missing two very makeable kicks that was the difference in the game.

I don't want to crucify the OP because frankly I have been in a similar spot -- even up through halftime yesterday. Taken in a vacuum his points about going toe-to-toe against the team with the best record in the NFL on their home field, making a ridiculously low-percentage field goal in the rain to tie it up... well, they are valid points. However, we do not operate in a vacuum. And when you look at all that went on in the 2nd half, it really was a microcosm of all that is wrong with McD. I too am leaning toward the belief that it is probably time to thank him for all that he has done, and look for some fresh blood in the off-season. At this point it looks like winning out is likely the only shot we have of making the playoffs. That would include road wins over KC and Miami. Not to mention a tough home game against the Cowboys. I will say that since 2020 the team has rallied after one of these mid/late season unlikely losses -- all of which were last-minute or overtime losses. In 2020 they went undefeated after "Hail Murray", in 2021 they went undefeated after the overtime loss against the Bucs, in 2022 they went undefeated after the overtime loss against the Vikings. Recall that the 2021 loss to the Bucs was also our 6th loss of the year, and things looked dire at that point. Then they rebounded and went into the playoffs strong. Anything short of that should spell the end of McD, I would think.

Actually I would BUY on Davis. As you said stock can't get much lower -- and after the bye he gets the Chiefs, against whom he has historically excelled. (Then sell him after the Chiefs game)

Agreed. One thing I will say that impressed me was the fact that the offense DID struggle a bit early in the game -- having to settle for field goals that kept the Jets in the game at just 9-0, despite the Bills' domination. Rather than panicking or trying to force the ball in those situations, they played it smart, got points each time -- and ultimately broke the Jets will in the 2nd half.

Rather than over-analyzing things going on in his personal life, it may simply be that the cards simply have not fallen his way this season. And he (and the entire offense) is in a slump because of it. The arc of the season as it relates to Josh Allen has been odd to say the least. Opening game against the Jets, he turns the ball over 4 times and is admittedly the big reason the Bills lose to the Rodgers-less Jets. After the game, Josh accepts the blame and vows to do a better job protecting the ball -- which he does, until recently. He rebounds after that and goes on a tear for 3 weeks in which he looks unstoppable. The team travels to the UK, gets jet-lagged, the defense loses some key contributors on defense -- and then the offense begins its funk for the next several games. I agree that something isn't quite right -- over-coaching? pressing? not taking what the opposing defense is giving him? Remember, defensive coordinators around the league get paid well too. There is now plenty of film on Josh and certain teams (Jets, Bengals, Jags) have done well making him uncomfortable. It's a copycat league -- and even the likes of the Pats and Giants emulated some of the things these other teams have done to slow him down. Also, other posters have shown just how UNLUCKY he has been so far this season. He actually has more turnovers than turnover-worthy plays, as opposed to players like Tua and Stroud who have gotten away with multiple mistakes with far fewer actual turnovers. The same is true of the offense as a whole, as the Bills have lost virtually every fumble they put on the ground. As Orlovsky said, the margin of error for this offense has been VERY thin. Now, does that mean that the law of averages will bear out -- and their luck will turn? Does it mean that this simply is not their year? Regardless, the playoffs begin now for this team. They probably can't afford to lose more than 1 more game from here on out. And it is up to Brady to figure out a way to make Josh comfortable, perhaps simplify the offense and put them in the best position to succeed.

Maybe not. But the fact of the matter is that, while the defense is literally missing half of the starters, the offense has been mostly healthy. Rather than helping to pick up the slack, the offense has actually regressed since the bevy of defensive injuries kicked in.

The "Just give it to them" game against the Bledsoe/Carrol Pats back in 1998.

I agree that you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Josh. He has always reminded me of a more talented version of Favre. Josh has the physical tools to constantly wow us with things that no other QB can do. But he often fails when it comes to executing the smaller things that every NFL QB should be able to do. The former is a skill set that he was blessed with and cannot be taught. The latter are things that he can do if he is consistently disciplined. The part that makes this so frustrating is that Josh HAS shown in various stretches that he is perfectly capable of being patient, disciplined and making the right decisions. The game against Miami this season is a great example of that. The knee jerk reaction is to suggest that the issue is coaching. Maybe that is true -- but that wasn't exactly the case with Fave. That dude had Holmgren, Reid, Mariucci, and Gruden coaching him...

While the penalty itself may not have been a big deal, what COULD have been a big deal was the fact that one more such penalty would have led to Josh being ejected from the game. I have to wonder if this may have subconsciously made him play more timidly? Also, I would imagine that the Bengal defenders were probably trying to do everything they could to provoke him throughout the rest of the game.

Is it just me -- or does it feel like the coaches are not taking advantage of the "extra" days they have been afforded the last couple of weeks? I get that the extra time does help with healing the body, etc. but does not seem like they are getting any extra practice reps in.

The "underachieving" offense really is a combination of factors: Lack of talent. Thanks to the unicorn that Josh Allen is, I think we fall into the habit of overrating the talent we have on offense. Yes, Allen, Diggs (and possibly Kincaid) are all elite -- but most of the remaining supporting cast is pedestrian at best. The OL is better than it has been in recent years but is still very much a work in progress with 1-2 positions still in need of an upgrade. Cook can be explosive but lacks the pass blocking skills and ability to consistently run between the tackles to be a bona fide every-down back. Davis remains inconsistent -- but the remaining receivers have not stepped up either. The offense has been at its best when Josh spreads the ball around -- he can't keep forcing the ball to Diggs. I am hopeful that the emergence of Kincaid (and to a lesser extent Shakir) will help in those regards. Unimaginative play design. It just seems that the Bills' offense has to fight tooth and nail for every yard, whereas our opponents (Bengals in the last game in particular) make it seem so easy. Our receivers almost never get much in the way of run after the catch -- and I am so sick of seeing pass plays go for 2 yards. I get that the trend for opposing defenses is to play back and take away the deep ball -- but maybe getting guys in motion, exploiting favorable match-ups, hitting on timing routes, improving the routes, etc. would help tremendously. Josh. Maybe a course in Risk Management would do him some good. Like, when does it make sense to go for the low percentage kill shot vs. taking the sure thing that at least results in a first down (or at least positive yardage). What is the old adage that you never go broke by consistently making a profit? As much as we all rightfully fuss at Dorsey, there are many times on film review that we can see that Josh by-passes a wide open receiver on an intermediate route for a receiver who is well-covered downfield. While it is true that he is amongst the leaders in completion percentage this season, I saw a recent stat that someone posted that he is only about 40% on passes traveling more than 20 yards. That means that his completion percentage on passes under 20 yards is lethal, and that is where he needs to be going on a consistent basis. Consistently hitting on well designed short and intermediate routes (see above) also helps to set up the deep pass when the opposing defense has to start cheating up. Recognizing game flow. This is on both Josh and the coaches. The coaches need to do a better job of getting the offense into a rhythm. Maybe that includes calling plays that get the ball out of Josh's hands in less than 3 seconds. Maybe it includes Josh being more decisive. Maybe it means running an up tempo/no huddle. But they also need to be flexible based on the opponent and situation at hand. The best example is opening day. We are up on the Jets by 10 at halftime playing against Zack Wilson and an inept defense. The plan then should have involved understanding the following: points are at a premium. That is, the Jets defense is good and it is hard to move the ball at will and score against them -- but their offense is so bad that it is hard to imagine them overcoming a 10-point deficit WITHOUT help from our own offense. And, of course, we all know what happened next, as Josh turned the ball over 3 times in the 2nd half, allowing the Jets to get back in (and ultimately win) the game. Protecting the football was all that was necessary for the Bills to win the game. The opposite happened against the Bucs a couple of weeks back. On multiple occasions a first down in Bucs territory would have iced the game -- but instead they tried repeatedly to draw the defense off sides. This was so obvious that the Bucs never fell for it. Lastly, it does seem like the coaches have been doing a decent job of making adjustments at halftime. However, this trend has also shown that these adjustments are taking too long, with the team repeatedly playing from a deficit in the 2nd half. Over-coaching. There have been times this season when Josh has looked very uncomfortable. Giving credit where it is due, some of that has to do with what defenses are doing to him. I think the coaches have drilled it into his head that he needs to avoid running with the ball, and that is making him look "unnatural". Not saying that Dorsey needs to call an abundance of designed run plays, but a few here and there will certainly keep Josh in his comfort zone -- and help break the back of the defense. In the past, when the offense would struggle, Daboll would intentionally call a sequence of run plays for Josh that would help ignite the offense.

Interesting that you bring up the Cam Newton offense from 2015 -- McD was there to watch as Newton fell off the cliff the following year and observe what an accumulation of punishment can do the body. He is clearly mindful of that as it relates to Josh, and constant reminders from him about not overworking Josh as a ball carrier are likely part of what he meant by being involved in some of the offensive play calling. It is also clear that he wants to run the ball more. McD has been very vocal about that, and he is right that a quality running game would do wonders for this team. That is true in terms of opening things up for Josh and the play-action pass as well as being able to control the football in less than ideal weather conditions. When he was here Daboll rarely seemed interested in trying to genuinely institute a running game -- and when he did, it often seemed forced. Almost like he was flipping McD the bird and saying, "You want to run the ball more? I'll show you..." The problem is that -- especially as we saw against the Bengals Sunday night -- the Bills don't have the personnel to consistently run the ball against a quality defense.

It also looks like Diggs is wide open at the bottom of the screen.

I definitely think the book is out on the defense. The screen game had been a BIG problem for the Bills really since the Jacksonville game, so the Bengals abused that by FAKING screens and going to wide open TEs. Speaking of Jacksonville that game is really the deliminator between when the Bills were a top 5 defense -- and when they became bottom 5. Obviously injuries are a big reason for that as Tre went down late in the previous game, and Jones/Milano both went down early against Jacksonville. I also do not think that the return of Von Miller (who was activated for Jacksonville) and the defense's struggles are coincidental. Miller has been useless since coming back this year. In fact, going back to last season, recall that the Bills were undefeated in the regular season after Thanksgiving when he went down. In fact, the only regular season game they lost with Miller out of the lineup was the opener this week against the Jets -- and that game was lost because of Josh NOT the defense. Worse, the defense has been awful at the worst times this season. They remind me of a terrible pitcher, who gives up big runs immediately after his offense has produced runs in the previous inning. Not exonerating the offense by any stretch of the imagination -- but in every one of the last 3 losses the team had a chance to win the game late with a stop by the defense. They failed. (Not to beat a dead horse, but it was Von Miller most recently who whiffed on a tackle against Joe Mixon that likely would have led to the Bengals punting and the Bills getting the ball back with a chance to win it.) Even in the 2 wins during that stretch, the defense ALMOST blew it at the end against both the Giants and Bucs. With all of the injuries we are missing clutch guys that make that big play -- be it a sack or a turnover -- at critical times late in the game. Remember the glory years when Bruce Smith or Cornelius Bennett would make one of those plays -- sometimes in a game that the Bills had no business winning? It seems forever ago that we were getting all those sacks against Howell and the Redskins. Yes, that was prior to all the injuries -- but where has the pass rush gone? Earlier in the year we were getting pressure just rushing 4. Now we can't even get to the QB with 5 or 6. Yes, Jones is missed -- but the rest of the line (especially the pass rush specialists) have been mostly healthy. It would certainly help if the (again, mostly healthy) offense would put together a consistent four quarters of football, which they have not done since Miami. I mean, it really does not matter how much the defense is struggling if the offense scores at will, right?

Now that he is a veteran in the league, I am not sure that ANY potential OC would have that same sort of relationship with him that Daboll had. Remember, Daboll was with him from the very beginning and exerted that "tough love" that went beyond just a mentor-student relationship. I suppose if a seasoned veteran with accolades/rings were to come in then the credibility would exist in such a way that a similar relationship could evolve. Not sure who would fit that bill.

Also, it's not that the Cinci defense adjusted to what the Bills did on that first drive. Rather, the Bills' offense STOPPED doing what was successful for them on that first drive. That is, they got away from the quick-hitting, short and intermediate passing game and started trying to take deep shots, which took too long to develop and were much more low percentage.

Excellent post. And I would bet that in most of the down-year situations that these teams had, there was an underlying reason why the team struggled. Injuries, new/rookie player(s) in key positions, etc. If you told me after the Jags game that the season was over due to all the injuries on defense -- and that the team was destined to lose a lot of 38-35 type games -- I would not have been happy but would have understood. The part that is so discouraging is that it is the offense, which has been mostly healthy, that has not been living up to its end of the bargain. Even against bad teams like the Giants and Pats.

Yes, the Bills DL did a very nice job containing White and the Bucs' rushing attack (which is admittedly poor to begin with). Where they struggled against White (and other teams' RBs as well) is in the screen pass game.