2003Contenders

Yes, the WR corps was terrible and, yes, the OL had trouble picking up blitzes, etc. -- but Josh flat-out had a bad game. He looked very uncomfortable from the get-go. That is one of the things I miss about Daboll: he used to recognize early when Josh was uncomfortable or pressing and would draw up plays to get him into a rhythm. Sometimes those plays involved designed QB runs. Brady just does not seem to have that ability to recognize game flow and make adjustments to get the offense in sync.

The sad thing is that those plays could have worked -- but the personnel on the field was so bad that there was little-to-no chance of having success. On the first play, Coleman (who I still have faith/hope will eventually emerge) gets no separation and pushes off. On the second play, Hollins fails to track a deep ball that could very easily have won the game if a competent receiver is running that pattern. On the third play Josh is pressured as he unloads and fails to get the ball to a wide open Samuel. Of course, part of being a good coach and designing the proper plays takes into account the quality of personnel you have at your disposal -- or lack thereof. I will say that every time a pass was thrown in Hollins direction yesterday, I lost my ever lovin' mind. Back to the original point about Josh being in shotgun, I will say that I was perplexed -- not because I did not necessarily want them throwing the ball there but because it took away any element of surprise, potential for play-action, etc.

We'll probably see more 12-personnel this game than usual with Shakir out. Hopefully that means more involvement from Knox than just blocking. We are going to miss Shakir for sure, but his typical 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards can be readily redistributed among Coleman/Kincaid/Knox/Samuel/Cook. (Notice I didn't say Hollins?) It would also be nice to see "playoff mode" MVS show up in this game as well. Through the first 3 games when the Bills were the top-scoring offense in the league, one of their hallmarks was their heavy use of pre-snap motion. For whatever reason, that was minimized in the game plan against the Ravens. Hopefully Brady makes that a bigger part of the offense again on Sunday. I remember after Coleman had that back-breaking drop at the end of the fist half Sunday night, he was clearly very frustrated with himself. He responded by making some difficult catches in the 2nd half. Maybe that will serve as a springboard for him to become what we hope (and need) for him to be.

As many have already mentioned, beyond everything else (including Adams' age, attitude, trade compensation, etc.) the Bills' biggest obstacle to making any sort of trade happen is $ and the team's' precarious cap situation. I do believe that Beane is interested -- and it is probably more than just due diligence. I think back to the A. Brown situation -- and the fact that Beane actually was willing to pull the trigger on a trade with the Steelers but Brown himself nixed the trade. Reports indicate that Adams would be willing to come here, so it sounds like that is not a potential roadblock. But in order to make a trade even remotely possible, the Raiders would have to pick up a SIGNIFICANT portion of Adams' 2024 salary. The only thing that the Bills have to offer to make the Raiders willing to do that is to up the ante in terms of trade compensation. I'm not sure that Buffalo could out-bid the Jets (or Steelers) both of whom are much more financially able to NOT ask the Raiders to kick in $. As much as I know a trade for Adams is unlikely to happen, I think back to Sunday night's game and wonder how much of a difference those 5-6 passes that were thrown to Hollins may have made if they had been thrown to Adams instead. And how much better would the rest of the receiving corps be if defenses had to key on a legitimate alpha WR like Adams?

Yea, I think on replays on that leaping TD against Arizona they showed him coming down on his hand with his own elbow.

Too eerily similar to the Diggs situation: Over 30? Check Large Contract? Check Disgruntled? Check No way the Bills pursue him.

Yes. I was at the game and noted that there was a 3rd LB -- and the safeties were playing up close rather than in their usual cover-2 formation. So those pointing out that their scheme of not crowding the line of scrimmage, may see this first play as the reason that the coaches backed off from it. The drawback is that if the ball carrier manages to break through the initial line of defense, there is no second level to contain him. And Henry is a special case (as we have seen) where he is like a freight train once he gets up to his top level of speed. After that they backed off (some would say "played scared"), willing to let Henry pop off 4-5 yards per carry in exchange for avoiding another back-breaking run.

Not disagreeing about Williams... but to be fair, he did make two key plays -- the forced fumble on Lamar and the near-sack that led to the intentional grounding call -- that very much could (and indeed SHOULD) have gotten the team back into the game on Sunday night.

Living in Maryland, I try to attend all Bills local (Baltimore and Washington) games. The team has had great success when I attend the games against the Commanders/Skins but has been winless for the last 20+ years when playing against Baltimore. I was at the 2004 Bledsoe 4-INT (including a pick-six to Deion) game, the 2006 season finale on New Years Eve with JP (when the Bills were fighting for an 8-8 finish), the overtime loss in 2010 when Fitz passed for close to 400 yards but the Raven "stripped" the ball on the overtime kickoff, the opening day 2018 game with Peterman (when Josh made his first appearance in the 2nd half), and yes I was there last night. More evidence that this isn't just coincidence? In 2022 my wife forced me to attend an out-of-town wedding -- and that is the only game the Bills have won at Baltimore in this millennium. I owe it to the team and all of Bills Mafia to stay the heck away from M&T Bank Stadium! As far as local games go, I will stick with just attending the Washington games.

I will say that the run defense (to my admittedly untrained eye) has not been that great. The defense is allowing almost 4.7 yards per carry, which is 22nd in the league. In all three games, RBs have had some success running the ball against us -- even against the Jags Etienne picked up over 6 yards per carry. The good news is that the Bills offense has been so dominant that the opponents had to abandon the run early. One interesting thing to observe is that while the Ravens' run DEFENSE is tops in the league, their run OFFENSE has also been tops in the league averaging over 5.8 yards per carry. I am sure much of that can be attributed to Lamar's own rushing abilities. You can bet that the Ravens are going to stay committed to the run, and if the Bills' own run game is stifled Josh may have to put the team on his back and win via the passing game. I have faith in the team, but this is not a great match-up for them. Bottom line, this will be a great test for the Bills.

Historically, under McD, the Bills defense has done a pretty good job of containing Lamar. Of course, that was with some combination of Milano/Edmunds/Bernard playing LB, so we will have to see. I wonder if they stick with the usual 2 LB set-up with possibly Bishop (given his size/speed combination) asked to play sort of a 'tweener role. Given that he is a rookie, that may be asking a lot of him. Even with the injuries, the Bills' defense has played quite well since the 2nd half against Arizona. Some of that could be due to the level of competition. Given that the Bills' defense has been very opportunistic, I imagine that the Ravens will want to play ball-control and keep it on the ground with Henry and Lamar and mix in occasional passes to the TEs (they now have 3 guys involved). The Ravens will have some success doing this, so the key for the Bills will be to bend-but-don't-break, contain them as best they can and hunker down in the redzone. Forcing the Ravens to settle for field goals will not be a bad outcome on a drive-by-drive basis. If they can continue to force turnovers, even better. If the Bills can somehow get up by multiple scores, I don't think this Baltimore offense is built to come back with guns a'blazing. With the Ravens' pass defense being their weakness so far, Josh is going to need to continue to play at a high level and make some big plays in order for the Bills to come out ahead. But he also needs to continue to be smart and avoid the temptation to become "hero" Josh if he doesn't have to. The worst thing that could happen is to fall behind and start turning the ball over on the road against a good team like the Ravens. And, even if they are not having success running the ball (which could be the case, as the Ravens do sport a top run D), they shouldn't get away from it completely as it does set up so many other things that the offense wants to do.

Those of us who are over 50 know what a revolutionary figure that Fran Tarkenton was. When he left the game, he owned virtually every passing record and rushing record at the QB position. And he did this during an era when these modern rules designed to aid the passing game were NOT in place. He also played with tons of heart -- I believe he was only about 5'10", so not much bigger than Flutie, and managed to play in the league for about 20 years. I know he gets a lot of grief for going 0-3 in Super Bowls, but he played against some legendary defenses in those games -- and the Vikings own revered defense (Purple People Eaters) had trouble stopping those AFC offenses.

The key for me is to see how well our defense handles the run. Both the Cardinals and Dolphins had some success running the ball (especially up the middle) -- but both inexplicably got away from it. Pederson will stay committed to the run (and mix in some play-action if it is successful). This will allow them to control the clock and quiet the crowd. If the Bills can shut down the running game and force the Jags into pass-happy mode, given our pass rush and the great/loud fans, I think it will be a comfortable win for the Bills. The defense also needs to keep a watchful eye on RBs creeping out of the backfield on screens, etc.

Actually, I think that was a good no-call: 1. Ingram WAS looking back. Watch his head multiple times turning from the defender to the ball. 2. The official is RIGHT there and watching closely. Nothing was missed -- he was right there and made a judgement call, not something that was missed. 3. The officials were very consistent about allowing the players to play and not calling ticky-tack interference calls all game. The contested catch that Keon made could very easily have drawn a DPI flag (which obviously would have been declined), and Lewis was handsy on an earlier play on that final drive as well that could have easily been called.

I still say that all of this goes back to the 2018 draft when BOTH Josh and Lamar were very polarizing figures. Many scouts thought Josh had elite talent with all of the desired measurables and may have been the most talented QB to EVER come out of college, while others felt that his production at Wyoming (in particular his accuracy) was underwhelming. Meanwhile, many scouts were intrigued by Lamar's Vick-like traits and thought he was an even more accomplished passer coming out of Lousiville; critics refused to even classify him as a QB (believing he was more of a Kordell Stewart "slash" player). Clearly both of these young men have proven their naysayers wrong -- and both are among the best QBs in the league. However, while virtually everyone has come around on Lamar -- even feeling shame or denying ever having doubted him -- there are still plenty of folks out there (even on this message board) who want to stick with their initial assessments of Josh and stubbornly refuse to admit what a generational NFL QB he truly is. It's like every time he has a bad game, they are on hand to exclaim, "See, I was right!". The term "overrated" has even been tossed around by multiple sources over the last few weeks. While both of these guys are top drawer NFL players, Lamar's skill set is far less transferable than Josh's. That is, Lamar needs the right offensive scheme and supporting talent that will allow him to thrive and best utilize his running prowess. Josh would thrive in ANY offense, past or present. You could literally take him off the Bills and put him on any of the other 31 teams' roster and he would still be an elite QB.

Mine is a 12-team, 1/2 point PPR Superflex (can start a 2nd QB) with IDP. IDP scoring is heavily influenced by tackles with 1 point per tackle. QB: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield RB: Kyren Williams, Zamir White, Zeke Elliott, Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy Jr. WR: Nico Collins, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, Jameson Williams TE: Trey McBride, Cole Kmet K: Cameron Dicker DL: Derrick Brown LB: Azeez Al-Shaair DB: Kyle Dugger Given that it is a Superflex league, I loaded up on QB in the first two rounds (Lamar 8th overall and Murray 17th). Most of the guys in the league were using more standard rankings, so they went RB/WR early, which left me with slim pickings at both of those positions beginning in the 3rd/4th. I think I did OK at WR given that I waited until the 4th to start addressing and landed some depth/upside late with Worthy/Shakir/Williams. But I am weak at RB -- and there is very little left on the waiver wire there. Hoping that K. Williams will stay health and maintain a reasonable 15-18 touch workload, White and Elliott (even with limited upside) will get by on volume, and that Davis and/or Tracy will be rookies who see playing time as the season progresses.

Kirwin actually was a GM. Worked for both the Jets and Patriots, I believe.

And what exactly makes you think that Dotson is better than anything the team already has? He has barely eclipsed 500 yards in either season he's been in the NFL. Hollins (who none of us think is great) is 2 years removed from a 57-catch, 690-yard season.

Same here. I honestly thought he was in the mix when Coleman went at 2.01. I was actually furious on Day 3 of the draft, knowing that the team had multiple 5th rounders to use as trade-up bounty, that the Bills allowed him to drop all the way to the 4th round. But... I will say that Beane and his staff did their due diligence on Franklin, meeting with him on multiple occasions. My thought at the time was that they were very interested in him. In hindsight I suspect that the various meetings reinforced the poor showing he had at the combine, and they took him off their board.

I find the evolution of sports writers' contrasting views of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson -- both of whom were drafted in 2018 and had plenty of naysayers -- to be very interesting. As we know the predictions of Josh Allen's prospects as an NFL player varied widely -- with little in between. Essentially, he was the classic boom or bust prospect with traditional scouts loving his measurables -- but new-wave analytics guys hating his college stats and how they projected to the pros. Meanwhile, there were many prognosticators that did not think that Lamar Jackson could even play the QB position in the NFL at all -- and that he was destined to evolve into an NFL WR or TE. Clearly the critics of both QBs were wrong. The difference is that the Jackson critics have almost unanimously come around on him -- and even expressed shame for having doubted him. For Josh, while a great many of his doubters have also come around to him as well -- there are still many of them out there that refuse to admit that they were wrong and are continuing to die on the hill that he doesn't read defenses well, is turnover-prone, has a poor completion %, etc. They look for the slightest weakness in his game, exaggerate it -- and use it to "justify" their misgivings about him when he came out of college. When he fails to exhibit the accuracy and consistency of a Brady/Montana/Brees, the critics call him "over-rated". Never mind that at his best, Josh is capable of out-playing any QB who has ever lived. It really is weird. Josh himself will tell you that there are things that he could do better. Be smarter with the ball, continue to work on his accuracy, cut down on unnecessary risks, etc. But to call him overrated is simply asinine.

Going back to my youth here... Joe Namath - my first memories of football Fred Biletnikoff - when I was a kid playing receiver, I always wanted to be him "Mean" Joe Green - beast on the field and I still love that classic Coke commercial Kenny Stabler - loved his style; when he would screw up, he would shout to the players on defense, "Just keep it close!" Earl Campbell - the "Tyler Rose"; ran with a real force (sadly he would pay for it later in life) Ronny Lott - Toughness personified; dude had part of his finger amputated to avoid having surgery and going on IR Matt Millen (as a player, not GM!) - smart, intense; helped multiple teams win Super Bowls Mike Singletary (as a player, not coach!) - speaking of intense, who can forget those EYES!

I should have double-checked my target conversion rates because you are right that there is no way that Josh (as much as I love him) is going to complete 78% of his passes. I was suggesting something close to a 70% -- but even with unaccounted for throwaways, etc. the individual converted-target numbers that I cited are well beyond optimistic. 🙂 While it is true that Josh's career completion percentage is around 63% -- it is considerably higher after his first two formative years. In fact, he was very CLOSE to 70% back in 2020: 2023 - 66.49% 2022 - 63.32 2021 - 63.41 2020 - 69.23 Even if the 66% he completed last year is perhaps more likely, I think we are somewhat in agreement that the offense for 2024 will include more of a short passing game than we saw under Dorsey, with Kincaid/Knox and the RBs being heavily incorporated along with short routes to Samuel, etc. Shorter/safer routes would also lead to higher completion percentage, so I do feel like 66%+ is a reasonable expectation. Obviously, early chemistry with a number of new cast members will be vitally important as well. It would also help if that the YAC numbers (which have been abysmal for the Bills in recent years) would start to see a spike.

I think these are very fair points. I will say, though, that if you dig a little deeper into the regular season games, the disparity in passing opportunities is not as different during the Dorsey-called games (the first 11 weeks) versus the Brady-called games (after week 11). Josh averaged 34.7 passing attempts in the games in which Dorsey was the OC. He averaged 32.8 pass attempts in Brady's games. I don't think that 2 pass attempts per game is overly significant, especially when you consider the extremity of the Dallas game when he only attempted 15 passes because the Bills were running at will against the Cowboys. If you take that game out, then Josh averaged 36.4 passing attempts in the other Brady games. So, I don't believe that the team necessarily went run-crazy after Brady took over. That said, Josh's passing production certainly declined, as his completion percentage dropped from 69.63% (261 yards per game and 7.52 yards per attempt) under Dorsey to 60.41% (238.5 yards per game and 7.26 yards per attempt) under Brady. There could be many reasons for that: Josh's injury, Diggs' decline, bad weather late in the season, etc. It is worth noting that Josh's average completion was actually HIGHER under Brady at 12.025 yards per completion versus the 10.808 he had under Dorsey last season. So the notion that the offense was more dink-and-dunk under Brady is also a myth. While I must acknowledge that the team does not have anyone on the team that is currently capable of replacing Diggs' overall production -- it may not be so hard to replace the minimal production he provided in Brady's tenure at OC. I am hopeful that Shakir and Kincaid will continue to improve -- and that Coleman, Samuel, and some combination of Claypool/MVS/Hollins/Knox/Cook (even R. Davis) will collectively pick up that slack. I believe (or hope) that a healthy Josh with a full off-season in Brady's desired offense with better complimentary receivers will result in more consistent results. If Josh can get the completion percentage back up to close to 70%, then even with the slightly fewer passing attempts we saw under Brady last year, we would be looking at something like 390/558 attempts for 4648 yards. Bottom line: those 500+ attempts have to go somewhere. Here's my stab at guessing the distribution... Kincaid 100 targets, 82 receptions, 750 yards Shakir 85 targets, 70 receptions, 900 yards Samuel 75 targets, 65 receptions, 600 yards Cook 65 targets, 52 receptions, 500 yards Coleman 60 targets, 45 receptions, 585 yards Knox 40 targets, 28 receptions, 225 yards MVS 40 targets, 25 receptions, 370 yards Claypool 30 targets, 21 receptions, 294 yards R. Davis 20 targets, 15 receptions, 100 yards Hollins 20 targets, 13 receptions, 180 yards That gives us a total of 383 completions for 4504 yards-- with the other 7 going to non-regular receivers (Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris and possibly a tackle-eligible lineman). I would love for Shakir to elevate to a 1000+ receiver, but I am just not ready to predict that yet. Most of his quality production late last year was a product of a ridiculously high percentage of converted targets, which I don't think is sustainable over the course of a full season, especially with no Diggs to draw coverage away. I am not even going to guess at the TD numbers, but I expect Josh to pass for about 30 again with possibly a few of those redzone TD runs of his becoming passes this year instead, given the surplus of big-bodied receivers. Bold prediction: despite the relatively low reception and yardage totals, Coleman will lead the team with 9 TD receptions. Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 🙂

There may be some truth to this --- BUT it does not explain the meltdown he had (resulting in McD sending him home) at the start of last season's training camp. Or the meltdown in the playoff game against Cinci. Or the reported altercation between him and Josh after the Jets loss in Week 1. All of these events happened well before Brady took over as OC. I have always said that Diggs played a significant role in Josh's maturation as a QB. It wasn't until Diggs joined the Bills in 2020 (Josh's third season) that Josh even recorded his first 300-yard game, and Josh did that in Diggs' first game as a Bill. The very next game Josh recorded his first 400-yard game. I will always be grateful for the great things that Diggs did as a Bill. He had some fantastic catches that helped win games -- the first catch late in the game against Detroit comes to mind. But his antics - tantrums, finger-pointing, etc. grew tiresome. I wish him no ill, but I think (hope) that Josh (and the rest of the team) will have a much less stressful time without the drama. We just need other WRs on the the team to seize the opportunity to step up, as Diggs is vacating 100+ receptions a year.

Some random thoughts: -- After 2 years in the league, Cook does not have a lot of mileage on him. So I would be less fearful of signing him to a 2nd contract than I would be if he were a true workhorse style RB. -- Davis profiles to be more of a "every-down" back than Cook does. Obviously he has not played a down in the NFL yet, so we will have to see. -- The Davis/Cook combo could be lethal, if Davis proves to be the 4th-round steal I hope he proves to be and Brady comes up with some quality schemes. -- The market the last couple of years has not been a great one for RBs, as teams have realized the short lifespan they have and the typical poor investment in giving a workhorse RB a huge 2nd contract All of this is to say that if Cook continues to improve and evolves into a mainstay "lightning" in a proverbial thunder-and-lightning running game, then he could very well be worth re-signing, provided that the contract is a modest one. Conversely, if Davis does turn out to be a workhorse, it would not be difficult finding a 3rd-down back to replace Cook and compliment Davis. So many factors at play here, some of which we will find out this year: Does Cook continue to improve? How good is Davis? Regardless, if Cook is looking for a contract that pays him north of, say, $4M per season, then that money would be better invested elsewhere.