2003Contenders

For all the righteous indignation about how poorly Gabe has been playing -- he DID have a career game the last time we played against Pittsburgh.

Something that I just realized -- the Bills record over the last 2 seasons when Von is NOT on the field is exemplary. Recall that he went down in the Detroit game last season -- and the Bills won every regular season game after that. This year he was inactive for the first four games -- and the only one of those games the Bills lost was the Jets game in which the defense played well -- and we lost because Josh was careless with the football. In fact, when Von was inserted this season (against the Jags) that is when our of our troubles began. Interesting. Not sure how much of this is coincidence, the surrounding players stepping it up knowing that he is out, changes to defense alignment, etc. He did have some key plays last season -- but has been mostly invisible this season.

TEs historically have a pretty big learning curve because of the variety of things they are asked to do both in terms of protections as well as the passing game. It is a bit unfair to compare Kincaid to LaPorta given that LaPorta has had an out-of-this-world rookie season. All things considered, Kincaid has had a fine rookie season with 66 receptions for 589 yards. His 66 receptions rank 8th in the league for TEs. He caught 81.48% of his targets, which ranks ahead of all the big-time TEs such as Engram(80%), McBride (78%), Likely (77.78%), Kelce (76.86%), Hockenson (74.8%), Andrews (73.77%), Goedert (73.42%), Kittle (72.22%), and LaPorta (71.68%). So he is doing a good job catching the ball. It's not his fault that the goons that design the plays for the Bills are not placing him in a position to be more productive (just 2 TDs).

Interesting... I was under the impression that Howard was almost definitely out, Waddle was 50/50 and Mostert was likely back, given that Mostert practiced in some capacity last week but was surprisingly scratched. I wonder if Mostert aggravated something in practice -- or if Miami's McD was playing games with the injury designations. Maybe he is doing the same this week. Honestly, if Miami is truly limited at so many positions (including a nicked Tua), I wonder if they would be best served to rest guys knowing that they are at least assured a playoff spot? Yes, they would certainly rather play at home than on the road in the playoffs -- but I also think they would rather be as close to healthy as possible and not risk further injury to guys who are already banged up.

It is hard to look at stats overall, because each game presents its own unique situation. I think we can all agree that the offense looked much improved in Brady's first two games as OC against the Jets and Eagles. Against the Chiefs, who sport a top-notch defense, the numbers were not as great but the offense still did enough to pull out the victory on the road in Arrowhead. The Cowboys game was also hugely successful with Brady showing the adaptation to move toward a rushing attack that was tailor-made to thwart a Cowboys defense that was built to stop the pass. I suspect that the success of the rushing attack in that game may have given Brady a bit of an inflated view of just how good the offense really is at running the ball, given that they had nowhere near that sort of success against either the Chargers or the Pats. Speaking of which... The offense certainly regressed after the Dallas game -- but I do not think they were nearly as bad against the Chargers as we remember. Remember that 3 bad turnovers (including one on Special Teams) served to minimize the offensive output in that game. The Pats game was another story entirely, as the offense looked as bad as it has all year long (with either Brady or Dorsey). Plenty of blame to go around here, as the play calling definitely left a lot to be desired -- but the OL did not do a great job, Josh missed on some key opportunities, and the receivers (running backs included) dropped some very catch-able passes. Sometimes, though, you have to give credit where it is due -- and Bill Bellichick had a masterful game plan that his players executed excellently. You know that after those back-to-back games against Josh and the Bills back in 2021 (where the Bills did not punt a single time in either game), BB was up nights trying to figure out a defense that would thwart Josh. To an extent, he succeeded as the offense did not play nearly as well against the Patriots last year. And in 2 games this year, that defense gave Josh fits. The Pats figured out a way to make Josh uncomfortable -- and when he is uncomfortable, he s prone to making mistakes (and missing open receivers).

Not too worried about the time issue as the Bills have mostly played later games this season. Jet-lag, however, could be a bit of concern. No need to start this game sluggishly and allow an overwhelmed team (with a new interim head coach) to build its confidence!

When he was originally brought in, I am not sure that anyone on the Bills (or in the league) knew what to do with him. Was he a jumbo TE? Offensive tackle? Defensive lineman? Purely special teams? So it may not be that the coach in question was even an offensive line coach. May have been special teams -- or even a defensive coach. I can't remember the full chronology of Peters' tenure here with the Bills. I do know that he played some special teams (blocked a punt, I recall) and some DT as well before he settled in at RT. I believe he became the starting RT in his 2nd season (2005?) and did so well that he signed a contract extension a year or so later (2006 or 2007). Then he was moved to LT -- and was unhappy that he was being paid like a RT, even though he had developed into an elite LT. That's when he had Parker started playing hardball... and was traded to Philly after the 2008 season.

Excellent point. Remember also that Martin did a fantastic job pinning the Bucs deep inside their own territory repeatedly in a game that wound up going down to the wire. I would also say that one of the myths about punters is to look at their average punt distance. A team whose offense is terrible punts from their own side of the field most often and relies on their punter to boom it 50+ yards -- whereas, a team with an offense that moves the ball (like the Bills) is usually relying on their punter to get more hang time and less distance. Not saying that Martin couldn't do a better job in certain situations -- but I don't see him as near the liability that many others do, especially when the Bills typically punt so rarely.

A few things for all the Chiefs fans and Reid/Mahomes apologists (in the fashion of the old ESPN series, "5 Reasons You Can't Blame the Refs for the Chiefs Losing to the Bills")... 1. The off-sides on Toney ABSOLUTELY was a penalty. It wasn't even close. It's not like his toe was across the line -- literally his whole body was across. 2. That penalty ABSOLUTELY could have been a reason for the outcome of the play. Let's not forget that it was Toney who caught the lateral and ran the ball in for a TD. I do not think it is crazy to believe that his illegal head-start played a role in his ability to complete that play. 3. It is not like the refs were trying to screw the Chiefs over after the result of the play. The flag came out immediately -- before Mahomes even threw the pass, before Kelce made the catch, before Kelce lateralled the ball to Toney, and before Toney ran into the endzone. 4. Furthermore, this was not the last play of the game/drive. The Chiefs still had 3 more plays to try to at least get a first down. 5. Even if the play stood, the Bills' offense would have had over a minute and all 3 timeouts to respond. I like their odds there with Josh Allen.

Yes. Miami is without their starting Center now -- and I would be worried about Tua's health against that stout Jets defense.

Actually, I get the opposite sense when it comes to McD. I think he prides himself on finding diamonds in the rough at the CB position and believes that he can coach them up. In a way he is right, as he has managed decent production from late-round and undrafted players. Benford was a day 3 pick in the same draft as Elam.

Exactly. I am sure that McD also consulted with the ST coach and Bass to get an idea what the max would be. I am guessing they told him 50-55 yards, which is why the offense attempted a quick play with 5 seconds to go, which wasn't there. So the option with 1 second to go was a low percentage hail Mary or a kick that was beyond Bass' range (in yesterday's conditions), which was essentially 0%.

I also believe that the complaining about the officiating after the game was a bit of damage control on the part of Reid and Mahomes that was concocted between Mahomes' outburst and the press conferences. Mahomes' frustration on the sidelines was directed at his teammates -- offensive line and Toney in particular -- rather than at the officials. During his tirade you can clearly read Mahomes lips to say, "Offensive line, what offensive line?" Reid would rather have them outwardly complain about the officiating than show the whole world the inner-team turmoil.

What was the color combination they wore in the regular season games against KC the last 2 years?

While this piece was definitely a hatchet job on Dunne's part (appears he didn't even attempt to seek out alternative viewpoints), there is still plenty here that corroborates what many of us have suspected regarding McD's over meddling. Reminds me a bit of the Tom Coughin situation when he was with the Giants. Ultimately, some veterans went to him and voiced their frustrations. To his credit, Coughlin was open to their criticism and took some steps to get better. The Giants went onto win 2 super bowl under him. Wonder if something like that could happen here? Maybe instead of player-only meetings, a few key vets could have a intervention meeting with McD? Maybe Diggs tried to do that himself in the preseason and was sent home for his efforts? Maybe something like that DID happen when Dorsey was fired as the offense under Brady has been more fluid and Josh has looked more like the old Josh. Or, maybe Brady and Josh sensing that McD is not going to fire a 2nd OC decided to "F McDermott -- let's do things our way!"

Yea, I don't know about your race angle. What I believe is that back when Josh was drafted back in 2018 many in the media predicted that he would be a bust. Now 5-6 years in, many of these pundits are still trying to die on that hill and grasping for any straw that indicates there is any teeth to their argument. Heck, we still have plenty posters here who applaud every negative play Josh makes because they still insist that the Bills drafted the wrong Josh.

Agreed -- and under ordinary circumstances I could understand the logic there. But that is McD's biggest failure as a coach -- not accounting for the situation at hand as it relates to the flow of the game. What he had to understand there was: -- The team's failure rate in overtime during his tenure as head coach -- The defense had allowed the Eagles to score at will on 4 out of 5 second half drives -- The offense had played very well all game I also think that at least trying to do something on offense in those last 20 seconds would have sent a message to his team that he had confidence in the offense to win the game right there.

Agreed. That is why I suspect what the team will do until the smoke settles is "unofficially" place him on paid administrative leave. That is, the team will say that they realize that he he has more important things in his life to deal with right than football, and allow/urge him to do so.

Excellent summary! While Beane is the one who officially makes each pick, like all teams in the NFL, the Bills operate under a consensus type process. Beane, the scouts and the coaches (yes, including McD) are all part of the equation. Beane and the scouts work with the coaching staff to understand what style of offense/defense they run and dig to find players that fit the respective style. As a side note that is what makes the Elam pick all the more perplexing -- as the book on him coming out of college was that he was not a good fit for McD's defense. And Beane traded up for him to boot. Perhaps, as some have speculated, it really was a panic move after the run on CBs in the draft.

This one I just don't get. Not taking anything away from Purdy because he has operated exceptionally within that offense. But that offense is LOADED, has a fantastic offensive line and arguably the best play caller in the league as head coach. Compare that to what Mahomes, Allen (or even Stroud) have surrounding them.

The good news is that the Bills still more or less control their own destiny. The bad news is that they are in this dire situation thanks to ridiculous losses to inferior teams like the Jets, Pat and Broncos. It is sad that they are in the position of being behind a number of much suckier teams in the conference. I will say that the playoffs (win or go home) starts for them against the Chiefs. If they do manage to go 5-0 from here on out they will at least be battle-tested heading into the playoffs.

If the Bills can play the way they did against the Eagles -- minus all of the sabotaging on the part of the officials -- I believe that they very well WILL run the table. Also, on their side is the fact that Miami has not managed to beat a team with a winning record in quite some time. They will face 3 such teams down the stretch -- so if the trend continues, the Bills could win the division at 11-6 (just as they did in 2021). Lastly, the other AFC teams currently ahead of them (Colts, Browns, Texans, Steelers, Broncos) all play many games against each other. So, even if Miami does win the division, the Bills still have a legitimate shot at a wild card.

McD's biggest problem is that like many defensive-minded head coaches, he cannot step back and realize that as a HEAD COACH his responsibilities must shift, especially depending on the personnel and where the team's talents truly lie. There have historically been many coaches like this in the history of the NFL, coaches who were good or even near-great whose contempt for their own offense allowed their teams to underachieve. Back in the 70s George Allen had a generational talent in Sonny Jurgenson -- and chose to bench him in favor of the game manager Billy Kilmer. Buddy Ryan ascribed to the motto that he only wanted his offense to score 17 points and not turn the ball over because he was confident that his defense could win any such game. Never mind that he had Randall Cunningham, Keith Jackson, Cris Carter, etc. playing on the offensive side of the ball. McD seems to have that same mind-set. It's like he believes he will get more glory/satisfaction if the team wins because of the defense rather than the offense. You know, keep it close and hope that the team can pull it out in the 4th quarter. That may be fine when your offense sucks and you are trying to hide deficiencies hoping that a strong defense can pull it out in the end. Dick Jauron kept us in a lot of close games and finished with multiple 7-9 records with friggin' JP Losman at QB using this concept. But McD can't seem to get it through his head that: 1. Right now (especially with all of the injuries on defense) the offense is the better unit. 2. The defense has NOT been doing what is necessary to stop opponents late in the game. 3. The team's record with him as head coach is abysmal in close games So the concept of buttoning down the offense and keeping it close into the 4th quarter actually works AGAINST the team's best interest rather than in favor of it. And I am not sure what can be done to get him to realize this and change his mindset. It does seem like (miscues in the Philly game aside), since the Dorsey firing he's been more open to the offense doing its thing, rather than trying to limit Josh Allen. The playoffs are NOW, given that any loss from here on out could spell doom for the post-season, so we will see how he coaches down the stretch.

Except... the play you were talking about was NOT in a goal-to-go situation. It netted the Eagles 5 yards, and a first down conversion en route to an eventual TD. In that situation it was a bone-headed move by Phillips. He is responsible for entirely too many of these types of bone-headed moves this season.

It will probably take going 5-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. If the team does that it is hard to imagine McD being kicked to the curb. Also, if the offense continues to perform as it has the last 2 weeks under Brady, I think he definitely becomes the "permanent" OC. In this scenario, I think McD will promote someone to DC, but it will likely be in name only as he will continue to press all the buttons.