hondo in seattle

This is a great post and rebuts the popular view. I think nationally, people see Allen as surpremely talented but reckless with the ball and a turnover machine. I admit that when I watch Mahomes, I do think he's a better decision maker. Yet these numbers might argue not.

I'll make two commitments... (1) I won't claim to know what you want, think, or feel. I don't know you. To pretend I know what goes on inside of you would be dishonest. (2) I won't make weak attempts at mockery based on religion. I hope for an America that is better than that.

As is often the case, you are correct. This is a straw man argument. You say that lots of people caim Andy Reid is the GOAT. Then you attack that argument. This is a quintessential straw man because virtually no one is claiming Reid is the GOAT. The links you provided say Reid might eventually get into the GOAT conversation with more Lombardis - which is a reasonable guess. The second article, written by a Chiefs fan, asserts that Reid will need four more titles to enter GOAT consideration. There aren't many people right now, even in Kansas City, saying Reid's the GOAT. So I agree with you. Reid is not the GOAT.

There is clear evidence for your position and I get your point. But Josh has a multi-year record of putting on the Superman cape and trying to make low-probability big plays instead of high probabilty short gainers. I'm afraid he'll put that cape back on in positions of stress. But I hope you're correct and that Josh has matured and is indeed a better decision-maker - now and forever.

Who's saying he's the GOAT? I gotta admit, that's crazy talk. But hanging the "recency bias" label on Reid doesn't change the facts. He's been a good coach throughout his long career. And he's won 3 of the past 5 Super Bowls. I don't think anyone who's followed his career is suprised by his recent success. Reid finally has the DC and QB he wants. Give a good offensive head coach a good DC and QB and good things will happen.

My good doctor, my memory is an imperfect instrument but as I recall... In the 2023 playoff loss, Milano (the heart & soul of our defense), Tre White, Michah Hyde, Tyrel Dodson, Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp, Baylon Spector, and Jordan Phillips were all unavailable. Rasul Douglas played on a gimpy knee. AJ Kline imitated someone trying to cover Tavis Kelce. Someone wearing number 40 suited up but it wasn't the future Hall of Famer known as Von Miller. The 2022 playoffs were weird. Psychologically, the team was dealing with the Topps shooting and Damar's onfield death/cardiac arrest. Hyde and Milano were both out. Others too if I recall correctly. In the 2021 playoff loss to KC, both defenses were equally bad, each giving up 36 points in regulation despite Spags being viewed by many to be the best DC in the league. Sometimes even great DC struggle to stop an offense that's executing at a high level. The game was effectively decided by a coin toss - a situation so blatanty unfair that the league immediately change OT rules in the aftermath of the game. I think McD is the same coach in the playoffs that he is in the regular season. Good disguises. Fundamentally & tactically sound if not quite brilliant. That gets the job done against average teams. But when you're going up against the league's best in the playoffs and you're not 100% and/or don't have a strong enough roster, it's a problem. When you look at the totality of their careers... yes.

This is true. But we'd had some serious injury issues on D the past two years. If we enter this year's playoffs healthy, I expect the D to perform competently despite not having the strongest defensive roster.

I think some people overrate Mahomes. But I also think he's still better than Allen - not in his physical skills but in his decision making. Allen can make every throw that Mahomes makes and when he's on his game, he's amazing. But we've heard it from Kurt Warner, Greg Cosell, and a myriad other ex-NFL quarterbacks and film gurus: Allen needs to be smarter with the ball. He needs to get the ball out "on schedule" as Warner says. He's got to hit his primary when open on a seven yard dig instead of waiting to see if something better develops. Allen's gridiron greed hurts his efficiency.

This is where McD struggles. Reid found a stud to run the other side of the ball. McD has gone through Dennison, Daboll, Dorsey, and Brady to run the other side of the ball. No continuity. And none are the stud at what they do that Spags is.

You mention two offensive minds ahead of him and I think your choices are legit. But I don't know about the comical part. What makes KC special is that they have the best big trio in the NFL: HC/opposite side coordinator/QB. Reid may not be the best offensive guy or head coach in football but he's high on the list. And he recruited Spags for the defense and deserves credit there. Spags could work elsewhere but chooses to work for Reid. And while Mahomes makes Reid look good I think it's a two-way relationship. I think Reid has helped Mahomes realize his potential and optimize his skill set. In 25 years of coaching, Reid's had some good rosters and some crap rosters. Probability says he should be .500 with perhaps one Lombardi by now. Instead, he's .647 with 3 Lombardis. He's made the playoffs in 19 of his 25 years. And you would think that, after 25 years of doing this, he's gotten pretty good. Experience typically sharpens skills. I have no problem with people calling Andy great.

I agree that the rules should be written in a way that Keon scores. But I get the NFL. There is no catch until the receiver controls - and maintains control of - the ball. So if a receiver bobbles a ball as he goes out of bounds, it’s not a catch. Makes sense. Officially Keon didn’t catch the ball until he established control after the ball slipped. Once the catch was made, he didn’t get two feet in. I see it like you. He caught the ball. Never dropped it. Got two feet in bounds. Crossed the plane. Seems like it should be a TD but I’m not sure how the rule should be rewritten.

In the years before Mahomes, how strong was his roster? Why would we expect him to win Lombardis pre Mahomes if he didn’t have the league’s best players? Reid, if he was an average coach, should have a .500 record and one ring. He’s significantly outpacing the expectations of probability which suggests he’s a very talented coach. Yep he has Spags and Mahomes but he hired Spags and optimized Mahomes production and therefore deserves credit.

I see it a little differently. It’s not about having the leading rusher. It’s about making the offense as close to indefensible as possible. Imagine if we were strong at running both inside with power and outside with speed and elusiveness. But we also excelled at throwing to the perimeter or across the middle, short, medium, and long. That might not be realistic but it’s the ideal you chase. Make the defense feel hopeless trying to defend every blade of grass. King Henry would get us closer to that ideal.

If the trend holds and we get two excellent years from him, I'll be happy. Coop, Shakir and Keon isn't a bad starting trio. But whether we resign Coop or not, I think Beane needs to draft another quality wideout.

I don't put Reid in the Bill Walsh category but what current offensive minds do you rate ahead of Reid?

King Henry is exactly the kind of back I wanted. And when you compare his contract to Curtis Samuel's, I'm completely sold. Josh can make any throw. But too often, defenses sell out to stop Allen. I don't think they entirely disrespect our run game but they know if they slow Allen, they have a good chance of winning and so that's how they scheme against us. The best antidote is a power back in the mold of Derrick Henry. At his age, I admit I probably didn't expect him to be as good as he's been this year. And I never thought of the opportunity cost in this light: him or Curtis Samuel. And when Beane was making these decisions, WR seemed like a bigger need. But with the advantage of hindsight: yes, sir. I'd love Henry on this offense.

While Boogie looked like a better run-defender than pass rush guy, I didn't criticize Beane for double dipping when we needed DE help so desperately at the time and all draft picks are crap shoots anyway.

I've been lukewarm on Rousseau since we drafted him - but I'm starting to come around. He was a monster in the Jets game (sans Von) and is currently 5th in the NFL in total pressures (sacks, hits, hurries) according to PFF. I think maybe that all us old school mafiosos were spoiled by Bruce Smith. Groot isn't that but still a solid edge.

This is how I interpret the slow starts though I'm open minded and willing to be convinced otherwise. Similar to GB, I think about our two new coordinators. It seems to me they both start out conservatively and/or predictably and then get warmed up as they decipher what the other team's game plan is. I also think, particularly on the offense, there's often an execution problem at the beginning of games. And, again, it may be that GB is right. This might have to do with inexperience on both sides of the ball. I also think neither side of the ball is blessed with a multitude of playmakers. We can't just call random plays and they're going to work just because we have better players. We've got to get the calls right. I don't believe the Bills have a motivation/desire problem. In fact, I believe just the opposite. I think Beane does a good job of acquiring self-motivated guys with high football character. And I think McD and his staff are good at getting guys mentally and physically prepared for games. They create a culture where players play together well and fight for each other. But many other teams also have good cultures and maybe even better rosters. Even if our coaches do good work, we're not going to win every rep, every quarter, every game.

Agree. When we signed Diggs, I took some of the warnings from Viking fans seriously. But I blended their concerns with a couple of other things: (1) Some of his teammates insisted he was misunderstood and just wanted to win. (2) He joined the Vikes when he was 21 years old. Often people at that age are still learning, growing, maturing. But then his relationship with Allen deteriorated and now he says stuff like, "I'm never the bigger person." I guess he skipped the early 20s maturation phase.

Is he still unsigned? We had him as one of just 5 wideouts on the 53 - nobody else wants him even on their PS?

And the world will hate him for it. But I can't wait!

Steve Smith Sr says we've been using Keon wrong... “Their young rookie receiver, Keon Coleman, he’s a heck of a football player. I believe that they have put him out of position. Give him a mismatch against a smaller DB. When he was playing against Jalen Ramsey against Miami, they won that game, but he was getting clamped down. If you put this young man in the slot against bigger linebackers that are not as fast as him in that short area, you give him a chance to really impact the game. Putting him outside as X wide receiver, stationary stand, no motion, saying our guy can beat your guy, man he's not going to do it, not consistently. It's an unfair spot you're putting a rookie in because they don't have a fix." This was before the Cooper signing. It'll be interesting to see how his role changes.

Agree! I visited Bogota many years ago and Colombian friends there complained about how Colombia was unfairly portrayed in the America media as the cocaine and kidnap capital of the world and all that. They insisted that Bogota was very safe with very little coke (which all went to the States) and little FARC/rebel/terrorist activity. One day we were getting ready to visit a 17th century shrine on Monserrate, a mountain on the very edge of the city. They warned me it could be cold and windy on top of the mountain and suggested I wear a jacket. So I dug my leather jacket out of my luggage and put it on. "You can't wear that!" they insisted wide eyed. "You told me to wear a jacket," I responded, confused. "Not a leather jacket. Someone will steal it!" "What are they going to do, rip it off of my back? You told me Bogota was safe." "No city is safe when you're stupid!" I wore it anyway and survived the day. I love Portland, too, btw. The Columbia Gorge, Powell's Books, Washington Park, Forest Park, Voodoo Donuts, the original Salt & Straw, food cart pods, lots of good brick-and-mortar restaurants... "Keep Portland Weird!"

Thanks for posting this. I kept hearing Cooper entirely tranformed the Bills passing game. But he played something like 19 snaps and contributed nothing to Keon's 100+ yard game. This bodes well for the future. As Cooper learns the offense, and stays on the field more, he may indeed transform the passing game going forward by drawing coverage away from other targets. Hopefully, the best is yet to come.