hondo in seattle

I miss Reed & Lofton.

After recent events, I have to confess my optimism has suffered a blow. But I don't think we can look at the WR room without the bigger context. Josh's passer rating and YPG in 2023 were his worst in the past four years while he threw the most picks of his career. Something was off last season. So let's play Clue and look at the usual suspects... Offensive Line. I wish Beane emphasized the OL more and think some sources like PFF overestimate how good the line was last year. Nonetheless, it was clearly better than 2022 so the line wasn't the reason for the drop in performance. Coordinator. I'm going to give Brady a pass because he was thrown into the job midseason without the ability to change the scheme, playbook, or preseason preparation. There's a lot to debate about Dorsey's coordinating. Did he drill execution enough? Use presnap movement enough? Was he too predictable? Did he rely too much on wideouts winning on their own instead of scheming guys open? Quarterback. Maybe Josh's drop in performance was Josh's fault. It's not PC to mention here but, as great as he is, he's not infallible. Kurt Warner, among others, says Josh will do better when he consistently gets the ball out on schedule. And Josh said that his throwing mechanics last season were effected by nagging injuries. Receivers. Maybe Diggs and Davis were part of the problem. Diggs and Davis both only managed 2.8 yards of separation on average last year - below the league average. Davis's catch rate was only 55.6%. We all know that Gabe had long periods of irrelevance and Diggs fell off in the second half of the season. Some folks say Diggs lost a step. What I'm saying is that there a lot of variables that will determine this year's wideout production. I don't think this year's wideout group is as good as last year's but maybe the dropoff isn't as bad as we fear. And maybe we'll enjoy improvements in some of the other variables. Maybe the coordinating will be better this year. Maybe Josh will fix is mechanics and throw better this year. Maybe Joe Brady will convince Josh to get the ball out on schedule, as Kurt recommends. As fans, we can only hope. I also have doubts and worries, too, but I'm not ready yet to say the sky is falling.

Torrance's play is worrisome. I've been a frequent critic of Beane's for not giving Josh an elite bodyguard. This year we're challenged with Morse's departure and now, possibly, regression by Torrance. I am not excited. The wideout play is beginning to worry me, too. I was decidedly so-so (i.e. not negative) with the WR room during the offseason. I reasoned that Samuel and Shakir are legit starters. We just needed either Coleman, MVS, or Claypool to step up and fill the other spot. It seemed likely to me that one would. Then Claypool went out with a toe, MVS with a neck, and Coleman hasn't done much. I'm feeling nervous now.

What a snooze fest. Hard to pay attention. Rousseau and Andreessen looked good though. I viewed Frank Gore Jr as a charity signing but he looked decent.

I think its weird. Worse, we've had stars at all three levels of our defense: Miller on the DL; Milano at LB; Tre, Hyde & Poyer in the secondary. And they've all struggled with injuries.

Thin skin? Hmm. I guess those hundreds of philosophy & religion books I've read and thousands of hours I've spent in meditation were a waste of time! Damn!!! Or maybe you just read the tea leaves wrong. Having led soldiers in combat where a trained and heavily armed enemy was determined to kill us, do you seriously believe your silly anonymous argumentativeness on a fan website gets under my skin? Your sharp wit or a tank battalion - I'm not sure which I fear more. Let me reflect upon this as deeply as it deserves. I may not be able to sleep tonight. If you want to keep lobbing insults in my direction, go ahead. I won't lob them back because that's not what I'm here for. "Angels can fly because they can take themselves lightly."

4,000 is just a convenient benchmark, nothing more. But help me out here... I come to OBD to learn, explore ideas, celebrate, and sometimes commiserate with my brothers and sisters in the Bills mafia. You seem to have another agenda. Maybe I'm getting this wrong but it seems you like to 'prove' that you are 'right' and/or your arguments demonstrate more intellectual rigor. When I (or someone else) disagrees, your stubbornness in hammering your point home and dogged efforts to poke holes in the arguments of others is impressive in a way. In any case, I still don't believe the sky fell when Diggs was traded. Our WR situation is far from ideal, but if Brady is a capable OC (and I hope he is though I'm not convinced yet), he'll find ways to make this offense go. Maybe not at SB level which is the goal and dream, but at least at the playoff level. A bunch of smart jurors sitting in the same courtroom seeing the same evidence often come to different conclusions. Sorry if you disagree with me. Ultimately, it doesn't matter because neither of us will impact what actually happens on the field.

I'm not expecting a Lombardi but I'm not expecting a sh*tshow either. I just don't believe the offense is going to collapse because Diggs has gone. I think/hope the 2024 edition of Joe Brady will be somewhat better than the 2023 version of the Dorsey/Brady show. Let's say Diggs' departure makes our receiving corps 5-10% worse. I think a new & improved Brady (with an entire offseason to implement his concepts) gets us that 5-10%. When Josh Allen is your QB, your offense won't be bad unless your OC is incompetent. And McD has a talent for making lemons with lemonade on defense. I don't think our D will be elite, there's not enough talent, but it will be fundamentally sound. And I think that gets us into the playoffs where anything can happen. That's what I think will happen. But my two biggest uncertainties are: (1) Joe Brady and (2) the wideouts. Both could turn out better - or worse - than I expect. We'll see.

For the next several years, I think we find inexpensive vets to be our backups. And then when Josh is in his mid-thirties, maybe, we draft and start grooming a young successor. It depends a lot on Josh - both how well he stays in shape physically, and mentally how long he wants to play.

Fair enough. But he still threw for over 4,000 yards and won a Super Bowl. If that's the kind of decline we are gonna see in Buffalo, I'll take it.

If Josh gets injured? Then no.

Good QBs can't elevate just anybody. And they won't elevate everyone - there aren't enough targets to go around. But Josh has thrown for over 4,000 yards for the past four consecutive years, despite a revolving door of receivers. Mahomes has thrown for over 4,000 yards six consecutive seasons despite his own revolving door of receivers including the loss of Tyreek Hill. In his prime, Brees had 12 consecutive years of 4k with a bunch of different receivers coming and going. If Josh gets 4k again this year, and I think he will, someone has to catch those balls. Between Samuel, Kincaid, and Shakir - at least one of those is going to have a career year and maybe more than one.

Supposedly, Brady made significant tweaks to the offense. Combining that with the fact that Diggs and Davis are gone, it's not unreasonable to believe that Shakir and Kincaid will be used somewhat differently this year, and produce differently. I wouldn't expect their catches, yards, average depth of target, yards per catch, etc., to be the same. Then again, I don't know what to expect. I wasn't at all impressed with Brady's debut last year. But he's made some confident and interesting remarks about the upcoming year while keeping the specifics close to his vest. Allen, too, seems jazzed by the changes but Allen also seems like the kind of guy who'll enthusiastically support anything his coaches say & do. With a new(ish) OC, new playbook, and new receivers, it's hard to project the upcoming year. But Josh is so talented that I think he can make mediocre wideouts look good. I'd be surprised if he didn't surpass 4,000 yards again. I would not be surprised if surpassed 4,500 despite Diggs' departure.

I like McD but don't deny this is a concern. Quarterbacks can flourish under defensive-minded HCs. Brady did fine under Belichick. But usually for this to work, the HC needs to find a good OC. McD is on his 4th OC. That's gotta be hard on Josh. Only 1 of the 4 was successful - though the book on Brady is still open. Then again, even Daboll had his shortcomings. McD's problems with OC, and Beane's various shortcomings at offensive roster building, haven't created the ideal environment for Josh to thrive. McD needs to find his offensive Spags. Hopefully, Brady proves to be The Guy. And maybe next year Beane upgrades the WR and OL rooms.

I'm not sure where the confusion lies. Yes, as a fan and observer, I thought Shakir and Kincaid were the best receivers on the Bills at the end of last season. And if you look at catch % and separation stats, some of these metrics tell the same story. That doesn't mean Brady ran his offense through them and leaned on them last year as much as he will this year. Obviously, production goes up and down over time. No player stays at the same level of productivity perpetually. I expect their production to go up this year. You don't agree. That's okay. You are right about this: if their productivity does not go up, our passing game is in trouble.

Last season, Shakir and Kincaid were not the "top weapons" - not schematically. The passing game tended to revolve around Diggs. I expect their targets and production will go up this year. And if that doesn't happen, we're in trouble.

Gunner said "Bold" so here I go: Josh passes for more than 4,500 yards and earns MVP honors. Bills finally beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards. Coleman starts the season slow but establishes himself as a legit starter in the 2nd half of the season.

Maybe my memory is faulty but why does it seem our star defensive players (Tre, Milano, Von) are the ones who keep getting major injuries? I don't want anyone to be hurt, but why don't our scrubs end up on IR instead? As much as we worship at the altar, the Gridiron Gods seem to have it in for us.

Yeah, GB, that's the fear. A look at 2023separation: Kincaid 4.1 Shakir 3.8 Diggs 2.8 Davis 2.8 What I want is for that list to tell me is that we lost the right guys. Kincaid and Shakir got more open than Diggs and Davis and gave Josh easier completions. But that might not be the case. First of all, separation is a wonky, subjective stat. Secondly, Diggs attracted more defensive attention than Kincaid or Shakir. Still, I do find the separation stats a bit encouraging, maybe because I'm a homer. And the homer in me hopes the tweaks Brady is adding to the offense compensate for Diggs' departure.

I like and respect McD. But Reid is probably a better offensive mind than McD is a defensive mind. Both are pretty good at offseason preparation, building teamwork, getting a team to execute, etc. Where Reid has a big advantage is with the coordinator on the other side of the ball. McD is on his 4th OC, still searching for the right guy. Hopefully, Brady proves to be the one. Reid and Spags are a dynamic duo. Both are strong at what they do. Best 1-2 coaching pairing in the league. The Reid-Spags-Mahomes combo is (sadly) special. We'd have a Lombardi by now if not for them.

Production has a lot to do with scheme and targets. Last year's scheme was built around Diggs and Davis, mostly Diggs. I think you'll see Shakir's production go up this year. Probably Kincaid's too. People will fill the void. If you look at catch rate and separation stats, you could make a strong argument that Kincaid and Shakir were better receivers than Diggs and Davis last year. Let's see how they do with more opportunity. I wouldn't say I'm supremely confident, but I'm definitely not pessimistic. More just curious.

I'm not sure it's better. I hope it is. I'm confident it's not significantly worse. At the end of last year, Diggs was mediocre and Davis struggled to gain separation all season long. The best receivers at the end of the season were Kincaid and Shakir and they're both still on the team.

This is an interesting assertion and maybe there's some truth in it. WR production is often as much about scheme and QB play as it is about the talent of the WR. Maybe putting Samuel in Brady's scheme with Josh under center will turn him into a star. When I was in high school, we had two total coaches for the whole team, O and D combined. Both coaches had played line in college. As a receiver, I received no coaching on how to beat press coverage, which foot to cut from, how to find the soft spot in a zone, or any of that. My daughter's high school had five coaches... just for receivers. Something like thirty coaches for the whole team, not to mention 6 strength & conditioning coaches. And kids these days go to football camps in the summer which I never did. In other words, the guys who make it to the NFL nowadays are all - to a greater or lesser extent - genetically superior, well-conditioned, and masters of their craft. It's kind of like the men's 100m final at the Olympics where the winner was only 1.2% faster than the last-place finisher. In some fields of athletic endeavor, there's not a lot of difference between the top guys. I do believe, however, that there is a big difference between the NFL's #1 best WR and #30 best receiver. But not so much between #10 and #40. So maybe our wideout group is 3% worse than the better groups in the NFL. Brady's scheme and Josh's arm will - hopefully - compensate.

My Negative Nancy side thinks this: It's not good when you're a passing team and your starting RB can't catch and neither can the guy you brought in to be your speedster/deep threat. But I have some thoughts about Nancy's negativity. Cook had some critical drops last season. But his catch rate (81.5%) was actually above average for a RB. Maybe because his big-moment failures stick in my memory, I'm underestimating his hands. And maybe there's a little confirmation bias going on. I'm noticing every drop, even the ones reported from the practice field, and saying, "Ah. That confirms it. He's a mutant who was born with hands of stone."

You're right. I didn't mean to paint all CEO's with a single brush stroke. That long ago conversation left a lasting impression on me. Yet, actual CEOs I've known have had very diverse leadership philosophies - some quite admirable. You're also right about Terry. He's a smart guy. Whatever he may have said, what he probably meant was that he hoped to get more leadership out of Josh. You were lucky to have such a good boss. Sadly, there are some bad ones out there, too.