hondo in seattle

Agree with much of this. Daboll was the best because he developed Allen from a raw farmboy into a force of nature. Dennison is #4 on the offensive side. He wasn't good. Brady both puzzles & frustrates me. Sometimes his O doesn't look very dynamic and his playcalling is predictable. Josh's YPG is down under Brady and his completion pct. is 5% below his best year. And yet we're the 3rd highest scoring team in the league despite the issues we've had at wideout. I might have to - eventually - rate Brady #1.

Sometimes when the replay is shown on TV, they don't give the appropriate context. * Regardless of what the scoreboard or box score says, the Chiefs were playing good defense to that point. * It's 4th down and if we don't make the 1st down, the Chiefs win. They'd only need a FG, and they'd be playing with 4 downs. They'd only need to average 2.5 yards/play to sustain a game winning drive. * Casual fans might not know it was not in any way a designed run. Brady expected Spags to be in man coverage and called a man-beater. Spags dialed up a zone instead and Josh was surprised to find no one to throw to. Worse, because the D was in zone, all the defenders were looking at Josh. That run shouldn't have happened. It shouldn't have been possible.

It's a weird run. Josh doesn't look nearly as elusive as OJ or as powerful as Cookie. In fact, it doesn't really look like a difficult run at all. He breaks a couple of weak tackle attempts before crashing into a defender at the goal line. But few other QBs could have made that gallop. Those "weak" attempts at tackling Josh would have brought many other signal callers down. And the reason the attempts look weak in the first place is because Josh has good vision and chose the right winding path through the defense. And the defenders underestimated his speed. The attempted tackle at the goal line is interesting. Instead of doing the wimpy QB thing and avoiding the hit, Josh squares up and sort of explodes into the would-be tackler, knocking him on his butt. When you rewind the video and see Josh at the 37 yard line with receivers covered and imagine another QB there in that position, you don't forsee a TD run coming up. MVP.

Back then, I watched all the early season games, sometimes driving long distances to sports bars. But by the end of the season, I was skipping games. Now? I haven't missed a game since McD took over.

Oh gosh, this is funny. This is why I rarely post opinions about draft picks. To paraphrase Socrates, "I know that I know nothing." @Logic good for you redacting the names. Classy.

Oops. Missed this.

You're right - but I disagree those who say McD has a "full cupboard of talent." Beane has been good at getting solid, process guys but not as adept at finding playmakers. And then you have to factor in injuries. We probably don't have more injuries than other teams but it sure seems we have more injuries to key players - particularly on defense. I think players in our D may be overrated because McD is good at coaching them to execute and play together as a unit. Our D - and the players that compose it - wouldn't look so fine coached by a lesser HC/DC. On offense, well, McD does have the advantage of having Josh and that's undeniable. I'm sure other coaches like Daboll, for example, fantasize about how many games they'd win if they had a unicorn for a QB.

31 million people tuned in to watch the Bills hand KC their first loss. This may help Josh's MVP chances. "According to Sports Business Journal's Austin Karp, an average of 31.2 million viewers tuned in to see Buffalo's home win which snapped Kansas City's unbeaten record and improved the Bills to 9-2 for the first time since 1992. Not only is Bills-Chiefs the most-watched game of the 2024 NFL season so far, it is also the most-watched regular season NFL game, excluding Thanksgiving & Christmas, since the Patriots-Colts game Week 9 in 2007 (33.8 million)... Additionally, Bills-Chiefs is 4th most-watched National window on record (dating back to 1988) and ranks among the 10 most-watched NFL games on record in any window, excluding Thanksgiving." www.buffalobills.com/news/buffalo-bills-draw-record-breaking-tv-ratings-in-dramatic-week-11-win-kansas-city-chiefs-josh-allen-patrick-mahomes

Some tv pundit (Simms?) said that when figuring out Buffalo's place in the NFL, you still have to consider the Ravens loss. A bunch of analytic sites and power rankings now have the Lions as #1. If we beat the Lions, the Ravens debacle would be forgiven & forgotten and the Bills would become the consensus #1. But ultimately all any of us wants is a Lombardi - beating the Lions in the regular season pales in comparison.

This might make some wonder what websites you puruse when you're not on TBD. But I would never suggest such a thing.

I don't know if he deserves to win, but he should be in the conversation. He transformed a perennial loser into a team that has, if I recall correctly, won the 2nd most games in the NFL since 2020. And yet has never been COY. It seems to be an oversight. And this year, pundits were saying the Bills would finish 2nd, or even 3rd, in the AFCE because it was a rebuilding year for us with many of our previous stars (Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, White, et al) all gone and $68 million in dead cap. And yet the squad keeps soldiering on, knocking down opponents with high levels of confidence, discipline, teamwork, and morale.

If you look how they do the tiers, the Bills are 2nd because of their combo of offensive and defensive EPA. We're also second to the Lions according to ELO... www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/

2nd best team according to EPA... Courtesy of rbsdm.com/stats

No sweat, my friend. I don't take the criticisms of my Bills opinions personally. "Hondo" from the original SWAT series is how I got my nickname - though not by choice. Btw, a few Chief fans say they lost to us because they played vanilla and are saving the good stuff for the playoffs. I guess it's encouraging that Bills fans have more accountability & realism: we aren't saving guff for the playoffs - we just sucked that day.

It was one of the bye-week ruminations and - based on the feedback - maybe not one of my better ones. Although not as bad as some of my older Bills takes such as, "Rob Johnson will be a solid QB" and "OJ isn't just a great RB, he's a great person too." It still seems weird to me that (1) both Brady and Babich had their worst game of the year on the same day, and (2) the Bills stuck with their nickel defense even when the Ravens lined up in heavy personnel sets and were running the ball down our throats. But life goes on and right now I'm still enjoying the afterglow of our victory of the Chiefs.

I apologize if someone already mentioned this... but didn't Woody say this was the most talented roster since he owned the Jets? Update: I asked Perplexity the same question... Yes, Woody Johnson did state earlier this season that the current New York Jets roster is "one of the most talented teams that has ever been assembled by the New York Jets." He made this remark on October 8, 2024, emphasizing his belief in the team's potential under general manager Joe Douglas. Why do you fire the guy who built you such a talented team? Maybe it's not so talented after all? Rodgers says he'll continue quarterbacking the team next season if, as the new GM, he also gets to choose the new HC and OC.

You may be right but I don't think this is a traditional 5/6 man receiving corps with three starters and the rest backups. My guess is that Brady sees something different in all these guys. Even when we're fully healthy (and I hope that happens and remains the case through the playoffs), I still expect Samuel - and Hollins - to get snaps depending on playcalls and packages.

You're probably right, Logic, and - if you pardon the pun - your logic is flawless. And that's certainly what I've believed most of my football-watching life. But over the years I've heard coaches & players talk about 'saving things for the playoffs' (though, admittedly, mostly denying it). Or 'putting things on film' so they can surprise a later opponent by doing something different. We've seen Reid, Belichick, and others roll out wrinkles - which they've sometimes admitted originated earlier in the season - in the playoffs. Watching Belichick in the playoffs, I would wonder if he was as much a strategist as a tactician. He knew those Brady teams were heading to the playoffs. Maybe he looked at the big picture and decide to potentially lose some battles but win the war by saving some of his best ideas for January. The amoeba defense, for example. I don't think all coaches attempt to play 4D chess for the reasons you mention. But I think Belichick did and Reid does. And so I wonder if McD does too.

In 10+ years on this board, I've never had so many people disagree with me so quickly. Intellectually, you all make a lot of good points. Psychologically, I want to believe in Santa, that life is fair, and the Bills are better than the Ravens. So I'm stubbornly sticking with the idea that the Bills tried to win with their 'B' plan against the Ravens last month while saving the 'A' plan for the playoffs where we'll crush them mercilessly.

Of course, I believe every coach tries to win every week. I used to believe that coaches throw everything including the kitchen sink at the game in front of them. A one week at a time mindset. But I've come to believe, mostly because of comments coaches have made over the years, that they don't always throw the kitchen sink. I heard one of Belichick's coordinators - forget which one - talk about playing the AFCE. He said they wouldn't scheme both games the same way (which would be predictable). They would think ahead and decide to use one scheme one game and another scheme the next meeting. I'm guessing they employed the better scheme in the matchup they considered more important or challenging. To give different Pats examples, Belichick devised the so-called "ameoba defense" during the 2011 regular season but didn't utilize it till the playoffs. In the 2014, Belichick came up with some weird formations with eligible receivers as ineligible - another idea he saved for January. Sometimes the kitchen sink is saved for the playoffs. I don't know if McD does this. It doesn't seem his style. Yet is seems odd to me that both Babich and Brady both laid big dirty eggs at the same time. Though, I admit, there's a bit of homerism here. I don't want to believe we're as bad as that scoreboard.

The Ravens game has stuck in my memory and led me to believe the Bills aren't as good as their record. But I might be reconsidering my evaluation. I don't remember the exact streak, but that game was something like the first Bills contest since the Tet Offensive that we lost by more than one score. The Raven beat us by 25. Power rankings, ELO, EPA, DVOA, betting markets, etc. All have us rated ahead of the Ravens, and yet they annihilated us. Brady, who's been having a good year, seemed powerless to generate any offense. Babich, who is also enjoying a good year, seemed powerless to stop the Ravens attack. Wierdly, both coordinators picked the very same day to have their worst game of the season. Maybe the impotency was, in a way, by design? Maybe McD said something like this to his coordinators, "Come up with two game plans for the Ravens. Save the better one for the playoffs. Use the more vanilla one this week." Thoughts?

I hope so.

I believe the Bills are a tight-knit team with a lot of camaraderie and esprit d'corps. I think Beane deserves a lot of credit for acquiring the right kind of guys regardless of the criticisms that he should draft for talent instead of drafting process guys when he blends both. I think McD and his coaches also deserve a lot of credit because a culture is built from the top. In the army, we might have called culture a "combat multiplier." It makes your weapons even more effective. Same in football. But the Bills aren't the only team in the NFL with a good culture. And culture is only part of the formula. Talent also matters as does scheme and play-calling. And injuries and luck. It was great to hear Amari's observations but, sadly, the Bills' specialness is no guarantee.

I wonder if Kyle Orton has seen any of these and wondered why no one's put his famous slide to music.

Weirdly, I'm not even a fan of that song but it's also my favorite. Not just the time of the drum but the epic drama of the music fits the moment.