hondo in seattle

Yeah. I like Cook a lot and think he's a great weapon. But that drop last week should have been a TD. That was not the kind of catch that ought to challenge a NFL RB. In the end it didn't matter. We scored on that drive anyway and the game ended in a rout. But how do we feel when he drops a ball like that and it makes the difference between winning and losing? I appreciate everything Cook does for the Bills, acknowledge his skills, and am aware that his catch percentage last year was actually pretty good - but his hands still worry me.

In battle planning in the army, we used to wargame best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios. I agree with finn that the worst case scenario is not the most likely scenario. It sounds nice: Bottle up the run game and let the passing rush dogs loose. But that plan didn't result in victories in either of the Raven's first two games and won't against the Bills. Their pass D is giving up 300+ yards per game and 8.1 yards per attempt.

I agree with the bolded for the most part. They have John Harbaugh for a coach and King Henry and Lamar in the backfield. But what happens if we get up double digits in the second half?

Offense: Dalton Kincaid Defense: DaQuan Jones The Ravens run D is stout. I'll be shocked if Cook ends up being the offensive impact player. Kincaid seems overdue and I'm not impressed with the Ravens pass D. Defense is a tough guess. I was tempted to go with one of the LBs. If we win, it'll probably be because one of the run stuffers stepped up and gives King Henry problems. DQ is my guess.

I didn't watch the whole video but the kid who covers the Ravens is pretty knowledgeable about the Bills for a non-local young man who specializes in covering one team.

Steve seemed a little restrained. Not a lot of personality. Still cool to see them building the stadium.

I've never seen this chart before and want to make sure I'm reading this right... Josh's EPA was adjusted downwards because his receivers aren't dropping balls but are getting Yards After the Catch? This seems weird to me because one of the reasons they're not dropping balls is because he's throwing eminently catchable passes. And YAC is happening partly because he's hitting guys in stride. Just think of Monday night. A couple of the TDs wouldn't have been TDs if Josh had made the receiver slow down for the ball. I think they're trying not to give the QB credit for the good work of his receivers. But he deserves some of that credit. I also think it's weird that DPI is a modifier. I probably like "Actual EPA" more than "Adjusted EPA."

538 used to do ELO ratings and make predictions off of those - but not anymore. For those who may not know, ELO was developed by a physics professor to evaluate chess players and was adopted as the official international rating system 50+ years ago. ELO works in sports, too. There's a website called nfelo that does football ELO ratings. There might be some other sites as well. Currently, nfelo has the Bills as the league's top ranked team. Surprisingly, it has the Ravens ranked #2. More surprisingly, they give the Bills only a 44% chance of winning. If I understand their methodology correctly, they don't just compare ELO ratings to make their predictions. They also consider home field advantage and the "market" (betting lines). They write, "Markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future... Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market." Whatever. I'm predicting a resounding Bills victory. www.nfeloapp.com

I do worry about the "bludgeoning of Derrick Henry" runs. But this isn't the Ravens D of years gone by. Josh is going to move the Bills down the field and put points on the board. Eventually, reluctantly, Harbaugh will have to start passing more to catch up. It won't work. Well, that's both my hope and official prediction.

Obviously, the two most important guys are the GM and HC. And when the HC is a defensive guy, the next most important guy is the OC. We seem to have found a good one. Allen has been through 4 OCs in his career so far and two of them were not good. It would be cool if we could have a Reid-Spags thing for a while - continuity with two guys who are talented on their side of the ball.

I'm surprised how many people in the media are picking the Ravens partly because they want and need it more. Didn't the Ravens want the 2 games they've lost already? Bills 27 Ravens 20

That's what I'd be thinking. I usually don't do that. But I did check out FinHeaven after the Miami game and ended up feeling very sorry for them. The misery was overwhelming and some folks actually wrote complimentary things about Allen and the Bills.

The analytic gurus can go down deep statistical rabbit holes at times. But the most important stat in football is Win-Loss record. The Bills and Chiefs have identical 3-0 records. The next most important stat is points scored/allowed. This is what NFL teams train to do: score points and stop the opponent from scoring. The Bills have a league-leading +64 differential. The Chiefs have a mere +13 differential. Next, we could go to yards, strength of schedule, DVOA, and all sorts of other things. But the most meaningful stats give the edge to Buffalo. Right now, at this present time, it's fair to say the Bills are the best team in the league. Though, sadly, the Chiefs might still win another Super Bowl. Still - for now - I'm enjoying the view from the top of this temporary hill.

My memory is imperfect so I was probably wrong. But the general idea remains. Injuries suck. All teams get injuries but our D seems to be cursed with multiple injuries to key players. Yet McD seems to, maybe not right away, field a capable D despite whatever injuries we suffer... but only until the playoffs.

Berger Cookies? "A beloved treat in Baltimore, these cookies consist of a soft shortbread base topped with a thick layer of chocolate frosting. They have been a staple since the 1830s and can be found at various bakeries throughout the city." No Blue Crab here on the West Coast - mostly Dungeness Crab. I don't like seafood anyway. I never heard of Pit Beef sandwiches before but they sound good.

My recollection is that we start off good. Then injuries derail us. Then the coaches figure out how to win, despite the injuries, as the backups gain experience. But the injuries prove too much to overcome in the playoffs.

You mean, it's not "p-o-t-a-t-o-e"???

I agree. I don't think the Bills will continue to score 37 ppg. Brady and the offense will have some bad games. And I don't know if one good year as an OC with superman as his QB will persuade every GM and owner that Brady's the man. And Brady himself has a say. Everyone knows being at HC in the wrong organization sucks. Some owners meddle and some GMs give you crap talent to work with and essentially set you up for failure. I think the chances that a team with a HC opening wants Brady as their first pick, and Brady reciprocates & wants that team, are probably long. I think he'll get a couple of interviews but end up staying with the Bills.

Everyone? Suddenly I feel old and left out. I don't know a single lyric of that song. Let me put a Doors song on my turntable and contemplate my loneliness.

I don't watch many non-Bills games so this observation is a surprise. Roughly 2 out of every 3 yards gained in the modern NFL are gained through the air. To help make that happen, and keep QBs off IR, contemporary teams have favored offensive linemen who excel at pass pro over the 1970s road graders who knocked people over opening up holes for backs. With that in mind, I would expect excellent pass pro in the NFL at the moment. In any case, I've spent years criticizing Beane for not building a better OL to protect Josh. I envied some of the lines that guys like Mahomes and Brady played behind at times and wondered what Josh would do if he could stand in a clean pocket. Now I know.

I just discovered this post. Thanks Thurm. I never knew this.

I said repeatedly that Brady has enough weapons to lead a potent offense if he's a good coordinator. And when Brady started preaching, "Everyone eats," I imagined what we're seeing now. But I wasn't convinced that Brady was talented enough to realize his vision. Yet here we are - the highest scoring team in the NFL. I hope we keep that up.

I'll be impressed when he does this in January.

Okay, so I'm 0-6 now. But, Dawkins and Douglas both had solid games from what I saw live (no All-22).

I guess it's how you evaluate the production. To exaggerate a bit, Dorsey offensive approach was to have Josh throw downfield to Diggs. And if the OL wasn't giving Josh enough time to throw... well, it was on Josh to find a way to make it work. Brady's approach is everyone eats. The backs will both run and catch. Josh will get some runs as well. Both Kincaid and Knox will get targets. As will all five of the wideouts. I don't think our WR production is comparitively low because they suck. I think their production is low by design. The encouraging sign is that they've been efficient. Josh has a good rating throwing to them and they haven't been dropping balls as often as our wideouts in the past. They're effectively playing the role Brady is asking them to play.