OldTimer1960

No harm meant. I like your posts

I think it is not a lot of tread off the tires. Not a lot of tread on the tires implies that the tires are worn out.

I predict that he will still be there at 20

Jonah Williams, DK Metcalf and Ed Oliver go later than many expect.

FWIW, I completely agree with this whole point. IF they felt with strong conviction that Williams' would very likely be a multi-time Pro Bowl G, then I don't think that many would complain about selecting him at 9. However, G is not a premium position (not to say it isn't important), and is not as hard to fill as other positions. From my vantage point, I don't think that Williams is a guaranteed pro bowler at G. I see a guy who excelled against the best college competition, but is undersized and under powered for OT and likely G as well. Can his skill set overcome those limitations? Can he get stronger/more powerful? I just wonder if he has maxed out his potential. He's refined his techniques and has the right attitude (reportedly). I do think that he will likely be a good starting OL in the NFL - more likely at G, but possibly also at T. I don't think the team that drafts him will view him as a weak link that they are trying to replace, but I don't think either that he is going to step into the NFL and be a dominating player. I would be happy to have Jonah Williams on the Bills, but I think that there will be better options than him available at pick 9.

I believe that OL is important, but I believe that that both OT positions are harder to fill and require better players than G. I also don't think the comparison of Jonah Williams to Zach Martin is a good one. Martin is much stronger and more powerful than Williams. I know that you can't necessarily judge a football player by how their body looks, but at the Combine Williams' body didn't look like a top athlete and he didn't really measure or test as one, either.

I agree that Dawkins could play well at T - as Jonah Williams might also, but many thought that Dawkins would be better suited inside and many think the same about Williams. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't play T, but with the 9th pick I would hope that they can find a player who better fits the desired height, weight, strength, quickness than Williams does for OT.

I’d have to trust that they know what they are doing. Sure, he is a good prospect, but it doesn’t seem like he is a great prospect. The line would project as a good C, an old career backup T and 3 guys who should be G. I should say that in general I am OK with taking a good solid prospect at 9 - doesn’t have to be a swing for the fences guy to make me happy, but I think there have to be equivalent or better prospects available at more important positions than G. I get that he might be capable of playing T, but do you really need two guys (Dawkins and Williams) that likely should be Gs playing OT?

But he was down to 281 at his pro day. I imagine that he dropped weight to run as fast a 40 as he could, but I have to wonder would he be able to maintain 287 in the league or would he end up playing close to 280? I know now that there have been a few players that succeeded at DT at light weights - guys like Donald and John Randle come to mind, but they are still the exception rather than the rule.

Perhaps instead of skewering her, this might be what to expect from "analytics". Statistics are based on solid samples,. I'm not sure that sports analytics are based on that. For example: height/weight/speed and of prospects is a (often reviled) form of analytics. That being, this ht, wt, speed, arm length, bench press number etc, GENERALLY predicts success in the NFL. Of course there are exceptions to any general statistic. Yet when Mike Schoop touts statistics about 4th down conversion rates, he fails to acknowledge differences in team's offense/defense capabilities and, more importantly, ignores that the statistics are biased as only the teams (and scenarios) that coaches feel like they could have success are represented in the success rat s that they cite.

Even if he becomes primarily a red-zone threat and never becomes a starter, if he can provide a good option near the end-zone for lobs it could be worth it.

Might be interesting If they see him as an outside LB who they'll use often as a pass rusher.

daBillsFan - :*Tokin' on a number and diggin' on the radio* - I remember the line from a song, but can't remember what song it was. What is that line from?

I understand your point that just because Maybin was a bust, doesn't mean every undersized pass rusher will be. Burns had much more consistent production than Maybin did. Still, Burns has put on 20lbs since the season ended by working out constantly. He is now only a little undersized for DE in the NFL, but I would worry that since he is not naturally that big and had to work so hard to gain weight, would he be able to maintain it during the season when he won't be able to maintain that kind of workout schedule with games, recovery days, minor injuries etc.?

I would strongly consider Devin White, Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Christian Wilkins and Hockenson. There is a lot of really good talent among that group.

They could "stay true to their board" AND trade down if they have a group of players rated equally - in that case they could try to trade down with the expectation that at least one of that group will still be available a handful of picks later.

Who will play OL besides Morse and Dawkins - the several FAs they signed are good fill-ins, but would still prefer some better pedigreed OL talent. Also, who is playing DT besides Star? DL is a need area if they want to be competitive this year.

My $.02 worth: Round 1 sit at 9 unless a very attractive trade down offer materializes and: take Oliver, fallback options: Sweat, Hockenson, Wilkins - I’d pass on OT here as at least one good option should be available in 2nd, however I couldn’t object to Taylor or Dillard here Round 2: their favorite OT among Risner, McGary, Howard, Ford -or- Tillery if they took Hockenson or OT in rd1 Round 3: best available TE or WR Round 4: if they really like someone who slipped out of the 3rd, try to move to the top of the round with both 4ths to get that player. Could be any position - seems every year there are one or two players sitting there that are surprisingly available as day 3 opens.

Me too - I could see packaging their 3rd and their own 4th to move back into the 2nd. Alternatively, I could see standing pat where they are, but trading both 4th round picks to get back into the bottom of the 3rd. I also think that there is value in having the ammo to get to the top of round 4 to get someone they might like that fell out of round 3. There always seems to be a bit of talent available at the start of day 3.

I don't think they have enough ammo to get 4 picks in the first 2 rounds unless they trade a player or 2020 picks. Their extra picks this year are in the late 4th, 5th and 7th rounds and those don't buy much when trying to move up in round 1 or two. Their 3rd and both 4th round picks *might* get them back into the late 2nd.

I think that Gary could be projected as an outstanding 3 technique DT. Tremendous athlete and size, strength, speed prospect who *may have* suffered from being used in multiple positions in college. I share concerns about production, but man he has talent AND size.

I can see why many think so highly of Oliver - his quickness is undeniable and he appears to play very hard. My concerns with Oliver are: 1. Height/length - he is not short, but below ideal height for the position and his arms are relatively short for the position as well 2. Weight - He is certainly strong, but he will be giving away 40 to 50 pounds to NFL offensive lineman. Can he thrive giving up that much mass and for how long? 3. Level of competition - Rice, Texas Southern, Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy, South Florida, SMU, Temple, Tulane, Memphis and Army were all on the schedule in 2018. On the flip-side, He didn’t have much talent around him on Houston to take opponent’s attention off him. None of the above means that he isn’t a very good prospect nor that he can’t find great success in the NFL, but they are (IMHO) legitimate areas of concern when comparing him against other prospects.

Sweat had 19 sacks the last 2 years against the best competition in college football (SEC) - on a team that wasn’t one of the better teams in that conference likely meaning he had fewer opportunities to rush the passer than, say, guys on Alabama and Clemson who were playing with the lead most of the time.

While I am not keen on drafting Metcalf either, I think it is unfair to say his route running is lazy. He is very young and missed time with injuries- he may develop into a better route runner. I don't think that there is any lack of effort in Metcalf. Donald is a true exception. Maybe Oliver is too, but pointing out 1 exception to a general rule doesn't invalidate the idea that there are very few 281 lb DTs in the NFL for a reason.

Back to Oliver, I can see the quickness and have no issue with his effort, but his arms are not very long and his height is below average and he is very underweight for even a 3T in the NFL. Now, other than arm length I could see him before being a better DE prospect than anyone outside of Bosa, Allen and maybe Sweat.