BADOLBILZ

Hey, I'm not balding rapidly like @Royale with Cheese but I do collect and wear quality sports caps......so I know when to get the f*cking deals, smartass. Check the date on that Kupp tweet......end of January.......about a week or two into the annual clearance. For $5 I inevitably buy a bunch of them every year and donate them. This year they actually still had some Bills ones for a change...........probably over-loaded for a playoff run which unfortunately ended 3 weeks early. I even bought this year's version of Kupp's "The Grazer" or "The Target" pictured in his tweet..........because I know someone who actually likes that logo.

I don't disagree that he's probably healthy aside from the concussions..........those tend to be easier to sustain the more of them that you get. If he can avoid those and they use him the way they did late in the season he is a real asset at C. But he did miss basically all of TC his first year with the Bills after his 4th career concussion and missed time in 2020 after his 5th concussion, on a seemingly innocuous play for a center, against the Patriots. With a huge cap number his status definitely has to be a consideration for Beane.

First.........it's been rumored that Morse may retire.........he's going to be 30 and has a serious concussion history............these are the reasons why there is speculation about replacing him. To me.........they've spent years grooming Ryan Bates to be his replacement...........I'd suspect that if they cut Morse or he retired that Bates would be given first crack at C and that they'd try to add a more physically imposing talent at LG to replace Bates(who really should only be penciled in there anyway). Certainly can't see trading a premium pick for the barely 300# McCoy and lining him up next to another barely 300# guy in Bates.

The highlighted is what I had in mind. I think Beane knows that the offense they ended the season playing isn't something they can do for 20-21 games per season...........Allen was taking a beating. They need to be more of a precision passing offense from the pocket during the regular season..........so if they bolster the OL and Knox comes out and looks like a guy who can dominate in an offense where the QB is getting the ball out more on time.........like most offenses have to..........then we will have a better idea where he stands relative to the better TE's in football. All else fails.........the franchise tag for TE's in 2021 was a relatively paltry $9.6M......it will be higher in 2023 but still probably no more than they are paying Edmunds in 2022.

I lean towards paying him too..........just not enough that I am worrying about budgeting for it this offseason. I didn't care for the Taron Johnson extension but that was a different story, he was a pending UFA in the final games of his contract. Knox is not. I prefer the idea of going balls out to win this year.........while also drafting a mid-round TE in a deep class.........then seeing where Knox stands at midseason next year and what they think of the young guy as a successor. You aren't going to be able to pay everyone. Priority to me is Allen, OL and WR.........then TE. It might just not be a position they can afford to have a $10M-$18M aav player at long term.

Subjective and really meaningless with regard to his future value. These two sentences say a lot right here...........it's not the early 1990's again..........get used to dealing with a lot of roster issues EVERY year. When the Patriots went to 3 straight SB's most recently I believe they had only 10-12 players on the roster in the 3rd one that had been with the team for the 1st one. You don't just sign guys and forget about that position for 3-5 years after you've paid your QB..........you are going to lose a lot of players in free agency when you win..........you can't sign them all.......not even if you save $1M-$4M per year in aav over market.........and even if they are a seemingly ascending middle of the league starter that seems generational to you because you are used to sucking at that position.

Jared Cook has been a free agent 5 times in his career and has had 6-7 seasons of more yardage than Knox career high despite changing teams over and over.......and he also a 9 TD season himself. We aren't talking about rarified production from Knox by ANY stretch of the imagination. And how much credit to assign Knox for RZ TD's is a tricky question............take the first one in the WC against NE...........Allen bought 10 seconds, which was more time than any QB has had before throwing a TD pass in many years in the NFL..........the second one was a flip after another broken play caused by Allen. If Knox were running crisp routes and catching back shoulder TD passes from a pocket passer like Drew Brees.........then maybe the idea that he is a master of the RZ carries more weight, IMO.

Yes, the other team has to pay his base salary if they trade for him..........that part is generally the case with all trades. If you cut him, and he is subject to waivers(as Edmunds would be) then if he clears waivers you are on the hook for all of his guaranteed base salary(which is ALL of it in Edmunds case). If released and then he is CLAIMED on waivers, then the acquiring team has to pay his base salary. His deal is slightly unusual because it's all guaranteed base salary...........that's the deal with 5th year options. Normally if you trade a player there is some kind of dead cap hit because signing bonuses were involved in the creation of that contract they are on and that portion of the contract is spread out evenly over the length of the deal and then has to be accounted for all at once if cut or traded. The 5th year option is a stand-alone 1 year deal with no real accounting shenanigans.

I get that perspective...........I've defended him pointing out his high end speed, etc............so while I wouldn't kill Beane for a speculative extension like that......... I'm still not confident that he is going to take a leap from middle of league starter, 500 yard TE..........to a perennial 800-1200 yard "top 5" kinda' guy. That's a significant leap. Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year. Same goes for Davis..........he had a huge game in KC but he also had that 3-14 target game and that game sealing drop in Jacksonville etc...........consistency has been lacking with both of these guys.

His $12.7M cap hit would transfer entirely to the acquiring team...........there is no unamortized signing bonus or roster bonus etc...........its all just guaranteed base salary.

Every year Lids basically dumps their random leftover NFL winter hats........mostly out-of-market teams at that point.........on the market at the end of January for $5 each..............it was likely nothing more than that.

Teams really don't trade 2 first rounders for a safety "all the time"...........that was a very rare and regrettable move. But they did it because Adams was a big play machine and first team All-Pro who fit their system. Cooper was a 2 time 1,000 yard receiver at a premium position that, at the time, was bereft of talent around the league. That trade is very different from the Adams deal. Edmunds is not a star, we know this and his lack of Pro Bowl voting support indicates that the rest of the league knows it now too.........he's become a middle of the league starting MLB.........who almost impossibly manages to not make plays on the QB or the football.........and has an onerous cap number. DeVondre Campbell.........an actual All Pro........is bound for free agency and projected to sign a $7M aav deal........there are always good MLB's on the market so trading them for valued picks is not going to be easy.

Yeah it would have to be a transcendent talent for me or @GunnerBill to spend a first rounder on an interior player. Linderbaum ain't that. He's very undersized, which might not prevent him from being a star in some systems........but it will always be a limiting factor that his team has to scheme or support with additional personnel to prevent from becoming a liability. As for CB and WR being more pressing needs than OT..........not really. The Bills were good at CB in 2020 even without White.....who will almost certainly return to be better than his replacement Levi Wallace, in 2021. Only did the Chiefs really have their way with them at the end.......but they incinerated the All Pro White in the 2020 AFCCG as well. CB is a want. Stefon Diggs is a better WR than Dawkins is a LT. Davis is probably a better WR2 right now than Brown is a RT(he sucks in pass pro). So WR is also more of a want than a need compared to OT. I get it though.........the moment the OL starts to play better people want to quickly wipe that off the needs list because it is a lot more fun to add playmakers.........we saw that last offseason when many assumed Williams and Feliciano returning meant that the OL was going to at least stay the same if not improve due to the continuity. What happened was FAR from either. They got much worse.........at mid-season they were arguably one of the league's worst..........statistically worse than Cinci in pass pro even.........and finally at the end they had to change the offense and turn Allen into a 10+ carry per game player to overcome the systemic issues with their OL.

Yeah I didn't have a problem with extending White, Dawkins or even Milano...........but Knox is certainly not on their level of accomplishment at the time.........as maybe the 14th-18th best starting TE in the league he's closer to replacement level than any of those players were. Based on his modest career trajectory it wouldn't surprise if his ceiling was as a nice journeyman like Jared Cook......who has been a free agent 5 times now........we still don't know and can't be hung up on the fact that his numbers are good relative to past TE's in Buffalo.......it would be a problem if he floundered and they had to eat $20M in dead cap to get rid of him in a couple years. I also really like the idea of making such an inconsistent player continue to work and develop elite habits to earn that big contract rather than handing it out speculatively and prematurely for fear of having to spend more if he becomes a top 5-10 TE. If striving for excellence becomes ingrained you are more likely to get that from that previously enigmatic player in their second contract, IMO. Human nature. And fwiw.......Gronk would not be a TE2 in Buffalo unless Knox made a very big improvement..........Gronk was still a much better receiver than Knox in 2021 and of course he's a giant compared to Knox in the blocking aspect.........but in 12 personnel ranking wouldn't be as big of an issue.

It's a matter of team control. Without it, trade value is greatly diminished. If the Bills traded a #2 for a middle of league starting Guard or RB they could ALSO extend them...........being able to extend them if you desire does not make them value added it makes them like any NFL player on an expiring contract. You are not an Edmunds fan...........do you not think that a similar level of player will become available in free agency over the next two offseasons? MLB's hit UFA all the time.........it's a position teams that don't have a lot of cap room compromise on all the time.

I just can't see anyone paying $13M for a 1 year rental on a MLB and giving up a second round pick to do it..............again, it only takes one team..........but it doesn't make any sense. We'd be mortified if the Bills traded a second round pick for a $13M rental middle-of-league guard or RB on a 1 year deal..........this is the equivalent. I like @MrEpsYtown suggestion of maybe getting someone like Washington to trade Montez Sweat to Buffalo for Edmunds. Sweat is coming off a down year and has a big 5th year option decision coming this offseason. I think you'd probably still have to throw in more than Edmunds to get it done........but that is the kind of deal where you might get potential value in swapping distressed or devalued-by-contract-status assets.

Oh I think that it's pretty well set in stone that a promising young TE is going to make $10M on the open market...........no misconception there.........the question is whether Knox deserves to be considered one of those guys. I let him play out his deal.........and here is why. Knox barely reaches the level statistically..........remember, while a guy like Tonyan had less than 600 yards in his breakout season he also had a near 90% completion rate when thrown to..........which is astronomically higher than the likelihood of completing a pass to the inconsistent(but improving) Knox. Schultz had an 800 yard season so that's not really a comp at this point, he's reached a higher level. As for the overpays in UFA last year...........this was often the case with WR's when there was a dearth of them in the mid 2010's as well...........but since then there has been a huge influx of young WR's. This years draft is LOADED at TE..........there are already more good TE's in the league than ever before and it appears to be a position where supply is very much on the rise. Personally, I'd love to see the Bills sign Gronk to a 1 year $8M deal(with maybe $2M of that deferred) and run a lot of 12 personnel this season..........I love their explosiveness from 12. But I'd also draft a TE in the middle rounds and let Knox play out his deal and THEN sign him if he actually elevates his game a bunch.........if he does not, then you have a talented young TE in development in the fold. That's life as a contender.........you can't expect to re-sign everyone to long term deals...........the fact that Knox is among the best TE's the Bills have had doesn't matter much in the context of a league where there are MANY better one's.

Knox and Davis had 500 yard receiving seasons last year.........Knox has averaged around 400 and Gabe 550 in their 5 combined seasons. I think Bills fans have a misconception about these 2..........they have both been inconsistent and had some BAD games this past season..........and haven't actually done much yet........and there are no guarantees that they actually will.

Yeah but he also looked like a beach ball at OTA's last offseason and had to hustle to get in shape before camp.............my impression is that it just doesn't appear to be in his nature/habit to stay in shape..........that's the kinda' guy you probably don't bet on being the rare one who excels at LT for 8-10 years. Might be easier for him to transition to LG and still excel in the next couple years.

Yeah there might not be ANY WR in the NFL that is worth two 1st round picks right now............because the league has been bombarded with new talent at the position since Metcalf entered the league. Basically every team has SOME guys that can play the position well now.........some have A BUNCH. It's not like during the WR drought of 2015-2017. What team is so desperate to add an impact WR that they need to do that now? But Metcalf and Chark are MILES apart in terms of what you can actually expect to receive. Metcalf would be an unbelievable match with Josh Allen.............right now Chark looks like another Will Fuller...........$13M for a guy who misses 5-6 games per year on average and produces less when he actually does play.........that's no contest. Metcalf is worth a 1st round pick more than Chark is worth risking $13M per year. And I disagree that you have to ink Metcalf right away..........I don't expect him to sit out for a deal.........he stands to make more money if he hits UFA in 2023 when the cap jumps signficantly. This year it's just now back to where it was projected to be in 2020. You'd hate to risk losing him for only a 2024 comp pick..........but if your board tells you that you are only going to get a Shaq Lawson quality player at #25........maybe you take that chance.

The issue with Chark is that he's missed 21 games and been hobbled in many more in his brief career. That's why he has only averaged a measly 500 yards per season. Metcalf hasn't missed a game in his career and has averaged over 1,000 per season with gaudy TD numbers. They are on 2 very different levels as players. If Chark could be brought in for $4M or something it is a worthwhile gamble but not at the projected 4 year deal @ $13M per year..........that could end up making the Star Lotulelei deal look like good business. Metcalf has just a $4M cap hit in 2022.

Pretty sure former All Pro Daryl Williams had a long stretch where he was grading out like the best RT in the league. Oh, wait, that was 2020.........then he was awful at RT in 2021. Dawkins is a good player who struggles with conditioning.........a lot of times players like that hit a wall in their mid-late 20's where the natural athleticism alone ceases to be enough. For some they can change their habits and not lose a step.........others can't and it's a career killer..........for others it just changes their role.

Imagine the versatility of the phrase "Babich please" in said scenario.

Aaron Donald is firmly in the conversation of top 10 defensive players all-time.......for prisoners of the moment he might be #1 overall.........so it's unlikely there is one of those in this draft at all............let alone where the Bills are picking at 25th. A very good player at a premium position would be a GREAT get there though and there very well might be one of those. It would have to be a pretty woeful draft to look back years from now and think that the best pick at #25 would have been a guard or a running back or an off-ball LB etc.. QB's and edge/island players have the best chance to make the greatest individual impacts in games........which is why they get the big bucks come contract time. As for Dawkins.........yeah you mentioned 3 probable HOF LT's that haven't switched to LT...........they are all freaks of nature athletically........but lot's of good tackles flame out after 5-6 years........we just tend to forget about them. Jonas Jennings was an excellent LT and got huge money to leave Buffalo for San Francisco........and flamed out in year 5. Cordy Glenn was excellent too.......also flamed out between years 6 and 7. I like Dawkins but in terms of talent/athleticism he is much closer to those guys than the HOF types you listed, IMO.

Definitely interesting plan.......thanks for sharing. 1 - I don't think Metcalf brings 2 first rounders in return from anyone. The Bills 1st might be right on the nose for his trade value. All it takes is one team........but it's another strong WR draft on the heels of several very good ones........WR isn't a desperate need around the league and he only has one season of team control left..........and no 5th year option for an acquiring team to leverage to make a deal. 3- I wouldn't pay Calais Campbell that much.........he'd be a nice addition but he is not a playmaker anymore.........more of a run defense addition.