billsfan89

The OP is very misinformed about Hughes contract. Since 2015(when he signed the deal he is currently on) his cap hit has averaged 9.5 million. His contract was back loaded where he made 6 and 7.5 million on the cap in the first two years before ballooning to 12.9 million this season. So this 14 million dollar number lacks context. The Bills could have cut Hughes before they extended him for a small dead cap number if Hughes was a big albatross to their free agency plans (give the money they spent I think that his contract was obviously not an impediment.) Hughes came off his best year in ages in 2018 and the staff resigned him for a modest 9.5 million cap hit that they can get out of in 2021 with minimal consequences. Is he overpaid at 9.5 million? You can make the argument but I think that's close to his value.

Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue are two prime time edge rushers who are more than likely to hit the market. Chris Jones from KC is another interior pass rusher on the market. There are also some other players that are on the bubble too but those are the big names. Personally I would love to see the Bills go in on Ngakoue to set the edge the next 3-5 years.

The big pieces home run pieces needed in my mind are a Dynamic Edge Rusher and a WR1. Some other moderate needs could end up costing significant money are a run stuffing DT, TE, OLB, and RT. While depth and specialists are needed at RB (you need a between the tackles player to replace Gore), DE (If you let Shaq walk and cut Murphy you need a rotational pass rushing DE) Safety (you need some depth behind an aging Poyer and Hyde) OLB (you are thin there) guard, and you probably need a new punter. Now that's only two big swings but that's in addition to the other depth and mid-level roster building needs. I think they have to split the difference they need to fill one of their two big needs via free agency and find another starting piece along with addressing some of their depth needs. In a stacked free agent pass rushing class I see no reason why you couldn't bring in a top edge rusher and find a run stuffing DT for a moderate price. You should also be able to find a good punter and fill some of your depth and specialist needs while taking care of your own players who need extension. I think you can then draft a WR early to fill out your other big need and draft other needs for depth and specialists in the other rounds. But if somehow a top flight WR hit the market would the team go hard after them AND a top edge rusher along with maybe a DT? Having two 15-20 million aav contracts added to the roster limits your flexibility but it gives you a legit window to contend.

The Bills average age is thrown off a bit by Lorax and Frank Gore being super old and some of their depth players like Lee Smith being older. They aren’t a young team even factoring those things in but they aren’t an old team either. However the Bills remain young at critical positions, Josh is a young QB, Dawkins, Singletary, Knox, and Cody are young pieces on offense, Milano, Edumonds, Tre, Ed Oliver, H.Phillips (Injury not withstanding), Levi Wallace, T.Johnson, and Shaq Lawsons are all players who are either starters or playing significant snaps on defense. The past 3 drafts have produced a lot of players playing significant snaps which leads fans to think of the team as being younger. As far as the contracts the Bills are not really hampered by any of their current contracts. Star in my opinion is the only horrid contract on the roster. Kroft and Murphy can be cut with minimal dead cap hits, Brown and Mitch are fairly big contracts but both players are performing to their cap numbers, and Hughes might be a tad bit overpaid at 9.5 million but he still brings value. Star on the other hand carries a 7.8 million dollar dead cap hit if cut in 2020 (thus only a 3ish million dollar savings.) If they do designate Star as a post June 1stcut they would take a 3.65 dead cap hit in 2020 and 2021 but save 6.6 million in 2020 if they want to maximize their cap space in 2020. Still this team is in a good cap situation in 2020. If they cut Kroft and Murphy they will have 102 million in cap space. Their only major free agents are Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson. Granted they have Milano, Poyer, and Dawkins all on the last year of their deals and Tre White who could also use an extension (Although they will almost certainly use their 5thyear option on him.) I think they could take care of their own Free Agents easily and still have enough cap space to go after a big fish and another starter in free agency while still remaining prudent going forward. The way McBeane structured their contracts and added talent this off-season was great, they remain in a good position long term and things are looking good for this team to be able to continue to add and retain talent going forward.

I am curious as to how McBeane looks at the 2020 season. Let's say modestly that the Bills win 10 games and lose in the wildcard round. How do they view the 2020 season? Do they view it as an "All-In" type season where they have Josh on his rookie deal and a ton of cap space to improve a roster win a 10 win talent base? Or do they continue the more sustained approach where they sign maybe one big free agent (like Mitch) and maybe one or two other more modest starting caliber players (like Brown and Cole) while using their massive cap space to take care of their own players in need of extensions? I think they go with a more prudent approach as opposed to signing 2-3 big free agents and maybe trading for a veteran starter to just go for a run. I could see McBeane going after a big time edge rusher and another starting caliber player on offense or defense but mainly spending their pile of cap space on extensions for their own players. While addressing WR and other needs via the draft. I hope they don't go too conservative. They need to add at least 2 high end starting pieces to this talent base along with a strong draft to vault this team into contention. I see no reason why they can't "take care of their own" and add a big time pass rusher and another piece somewhere else and then fill the remaining needs via the draft.

Hughes this season is on the last year of his contract extension he signed in 2015 when he was coming off of back to back 10 sack seasons. Contracts in the NFL tend to be back loaded money wise. Despite his 14.5 million salary his cap hit for 2019 is 12.9 million still a bit overpaid for his production. But his cap hits the past 4 seasons were 6.17 million in 2015, 7.5 million in 2016, 10.4 million in 2017 and 10.4 million in 2018. So the Bills are in 2019 essentially paying for Hughes cheaper contract numbers early in his deal. His cap hits in 2020 and 2021 are a modest 9.5 million each year with the ability to get out of his deal in 2021 at a low dead cap hit. The context of Hughes being paid his current number are the result of circumstances. Has he produced the sack totals the team wanted? No but his pressure numbers are good, he is stout against the run, and if you watch the games you know he is a factor. He should be a heavily productive rotation player the next 2 seasons at a fair cap number. He also has good value in the locker room. I do suspect this team does bring in a big time edge rusher via free agency to get Hughes down to being the 2nd best pass rusher (a role he is better suited for) and the team has both the cap room to do so in a free agent class that boasts a lot of options as far as edge rushers go.

The Pats had a very good defense last season. It isn't a shock that their defense which wasn't super old and is coached by Billy B returned to form the next season. However this hype about them being a generationally "great" defense similar to the 2000 Raves, 2002 Bucs, 2013 Seahawks or something of that ilk is nothing more than hype. Anyone could read their schedule and see they played some of the worst QB's and overall offenses in the league. That's no insult to the Bills offense but I would classify them as slightly below average with a QB who is young and growing and that was the best offense they played up until they ran into the Ravens. The Pats defense is going to regress to a standard very good defense as they play better offenses. That's not to say that their defense can't carry them to a Super Bowl but it isn't a all time great defense like people were hyping. I think this reflects the sports news media's need for consistent 24/7 content as they tend to be very week to week reactionary to every little thing as they have airtime to fill.

If Josh stopped developing his play would be the quality of a Fitz type fringe starter (a guy whose success is heavily dependent on the talent around him) but luckily he just continues to develop in various aspects. If Josh continues to make better decisions and "force" the ball less (as he has the past 3 games) those turnover to TD margins will improve. If Josh can find his touch on the deep ball his overall success and passing numbers should improve. How good he can be is going to come down to how he can develop his deep ball accuracy and fine tune the aspects of his game he has already improved significantly. A lot of the crazier fans were projecting a Mahomes like second season (completely ignoring that Mahomes had multiple elite weapons around him in addition to a good O-line) for Josh. But I think the more reality based fans had a sense that Josh's season was going to look more like Trubisky's season with the Bears last year. Which I think it has from a "stats" perspective. But Josh on film looks to be showcasing more dynamic traits and consistent week to week improvement.

Personally I thought that the Bills would be an 8-9 win team this year, with 10-11 wins being an optimistic scenario. Right now I think they are on pace for 10 wins with 11 if they can sweep the next 3 or take an upset in that tough 4 game stretch weeks 13-16. But 10 wins certainly seems plausible. My expectations where that the team added enough talent (they overhauled the O-line and added some legit offensive weapons) to the offense to take it from one of the worst in the league to an at least decent or below average unit. I thought the defense returned mostly the same unit but with more experience and the defense would be a top 10 unit. I also did think that Andre Roberts was a smart addition to solidify a weak point in special teams with an All-Pro type player which would improve a below average ST unit to a decent one. What I like about this team is that they are built with sustained winning in mind. This team doesn’t have many bad contracts they can’t get out of, Mitch, Hughes, Brown and Star are the only massive contract the Bills can’t get out of (Mitch and Brown are performing at high levels and Hughes is still a productive player.) Even Star’s contract (which carries 7.8 million in dead money if cut in 2020) could be June 1stdesignated which would spread that hit to 3.4 million in 2020 and 2021 thus saving 6.6 million in 2020 if needed. Kroft and Murphy both can be cut with minimal cap hits. If the team cuts Murphy and Kroft the team enters into 2020 win 102 million in cap space. Even if they peel off 45 million to take care of their own future extensions they could still add a prime time pass rusher and another starting piece and some depth while not further impacting their cap long term. So this isn’t an all in type season. This is in my opinion possibly the beginning of a 2-4 year run of contention.

The fact that you can return a blocked PAT for a 2pt conversion is enough of an incentive to block the kick beyond stopping the conversion. I don't hate the idea but it is an esoteric enough situation where more merit is not needed.

Pretty accurate assessment, really appreciate the effort you put into this. Right now this team just has to take care of the teams that they should be able to beat. They need to win 2 out of the next 3 to push them to 8-3. They play a tough stretch of games At Cowboys, At NE, Ravens, At Pitt where they could easily go 1-3. But if they stand at 8-3 a 1-3 stretch puts them at 9-6 heading into a home game against the Jets. I think 9 wins might get you the 6th seed but certainly 10 wins punches a ticket. Overall just keep winning these games against softer opponents and you will be fine. Also as a fact check Jerry Hughes has 2.5 sacks this season.

Josh is on pace for 3,300 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 60.9% completion percentage, 20 passing TD's, 8 rushing TD's, 14 INT's, 4 fumbles lost, and a 12-4 record. That all being said that's not a bad improvement in year two thus far. 28 TD's (rushing and passing) against 18 turnovers is not an ideal scoring to turnover ratio. However I think that his decision making has been growing week to week. I think his most recent turnovers have been more of a result bad play calling due to designed run calls that make no sense. But his accuracy in the short and intermediate game has been impressive thus far, I also think that his game overall has been massively improving in many respects. I also think that it is fair to say that while the offensive talent around him isn't bad it isn't great either. Josh has no true number one WR and no true consistent TE in the passing game either. One concern with Josh is the deep ball which just hasn't been there as of this season. I think his adjusting his game to be more touch based and accuracy based in the short range has thrown off his deep ball touch. But I hope that as he get more comfortable with his short and intermediate game. TLDR: By the numbers you see a typical "Year Two" QB some improvement, some flaws, and a long way to go but possibly getting there.

I would say the defense is above average, they were elite top 3 in the league through 5 games, the last 3 games they have ranged from average (Skins and Fins considering those teams talent levels) and poor (Eagles.) So overall through 8 games I would put the defense as having performed at a top 10 rate overall. The offense I will agree has been slightly below average. Not tragic like last season, they can move the ball and even somewhat consistently esp against weaker defenses. But the offense has a growing QB who is a bit turnover prone and the lack of an elite WR1 hampers the team against better defenses. The special teams has been above average. Good kicking game, very strong return game, solid on kick/punt coverage but very very poor on the punting game (the one big blemish of the unit is Bojo.) I also think that this team is just very well coached and that gives them an edge over a lot of teams. They play good situational football and don't let mistakes frazzle them and they play disciplined. I know this teams penalty stats are mid level or worse (They rank 21st in penalties per game and 15th in penalty yards) but their penalties don't seem to come at in opportune times for the most part. They also play smart situationally. I think overall this team is an above average team feasting on a bad schedule. But that's what you have to do in the NFL to get to double digit wins. I think people also have to stay clam and remember that this team has the cap space and cap flexibility going forward to resign their own players and add a piece or two to go along with continuing to build through the draft. This isn't a situation like the Bears this year where they gutted their cap and draft assets to infuse their team with a lot of talent. The Bills added a lot of talent and depth but didn't go crazy with spending either.

The Browns are still a talented team desperate for a win. They also can run the ball which makes them matchup well against the defense. Toss in the fact that this is an away game and I can easily see this being a down to the wire type game. Now a loss in Cleveland still leaves the Bills at 6-3 with 2 favored games and still leaves them on pace to go 10-6. But if you win in Cleveland you set yourself up to go 9-2 going into that horrid 4 game stretch (At Dallas, At NE, Ravens, and At Pitt.) So I think this game is not a must win but a win that the team really could and should get. As talented as the Browns are they are completely dysfunctional. They are poorly coached, coming apart at the seams, and they are not playing up to their talent level. If the Bills can gameplan to stop the run and use the teams secondary as a strength then they can game manage the offense into a close McD type win.

I agree that this team is leaving at least 2-4 "easy" first downs on the table by not using Cole more. He easily should be getting at least 8-10 targets per-game. The last 4 games he has averaged less than 5.

Phillips is earning the time, Oliver hasn't been tragic but he hasn't been great either. I think for a rookie Oliver has earned some snaps but if a player ahead of him is playing significantly better you can fully justify lowering his snap count. I think Oliver should be used as a pass rushing specialist. It is clear to me that Ed (like other posters have mentioned) needs a full NFL off-season of strength training and conditioning to add a little bit more weight without losing speed. I think Ed will be a great player in this league one day but as a rookie he has had his ups and downs. As far as Phillips I love the way he has played. But would I hand him a big contract? I don't know, honestly that's the kind of thing you have to be in the locker room to see how he has handled himself and hope that it was Miami that led him to being a malcontent and not his own nature. I think there are plenty of snaps to put Taylor in there more while still having Oliver get passing down snaps. I would rather play Star a bit less and put Taylor in there.

The run defense and the offense not having that killer instinct to put games away. Those are the two main concerns. Not sure what could be done to address those issues.

WR1, RT and Edge Rush are the top needs that will require major FA dollars or a high draft pick to fill. Finding a run stuffing DT shouldn't be hard to do (although they wiffed big on Star), finding a between the tackles runner isn't hard to do. OLB is a need but I think they can bring Lorax back for one more season in 2020 and draft one in the mid rounds (they also have V.Joseph coming back after his red shirt year.) Even RT which I would classify as a need isn't tragic as I think Ty is a decent RT. I think they more than likely can roll with Ty for one more season and draft an RT in rounds 2-4 to back him up. Guard I wouldn't even put on the list as I think you can let Spain walk (he has been a JAG) and kick Ford into the guard spot and roll with Felicano as the other guard. You also have Long and Bates as depth. Maybe they draft one late but I don't see it as an issue.

Feliciano has been really good, I think they can kick Ford inside to take over for Spain. Maybe draft or bring in some depth but the guard position isn't a major concern. RT is a need as Ty is OK and older. Probably address RT in rounds 2-4 next year.

Venture firms always want to pump online content spheres to be the next big thing like VICE. But that's just not realistic for a site like Deadspin. So they do two things 1- Spend a lot of money to pump up the revenue and hope to dump it or 2- Cut costs to the bone and bleed things dry. They did the second option and the staff saw what happened to Sports Illustrated and made the move early.

People can complain about the politics in sports but most of their articles were sports related. Maybe 10 to 15% weren't. I actually get the argument of stick to sports as there are few sanctuaries away from politics but the site in its most popular days always had political articles which were often their most popular pieces. The issue stems from venture capital firms wanting insane returns on investments. Deadspin is a sports blog with a good readership but it was never going to be a business that delivered a 10 to 1 return on investment. The site was profitable under their original ownership but it was never going to grow into Vice or anything like that. It was a profitable enterprise but much like a lot of things venture capitalists touch making a nice profit isn't enough. The new management pushed their agenda because they wanted to cut costs and make the site inflate his value.

I am not surprised that the Bills didn't claim him. His talent level is not that grand anymore and the reports of him being a bit lazy up in New England don't really fit with the Bills culture. I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston claim him as they are in a desperate win now mode. But I don't see Gordon as much of an upgrade over the younger players the Bills could plug in there.

I think he is probably stating that there wasn't a reasonably priced trade to be had. I don't think that there were any trade deadlines from the previous administration to compare it to. But the point stands that you don't need to make a move if one isn't out there to be had.

I think the Bills are a somewhat "soft" 5-2. The Jets and Titans kickers could be viewed as having gifted those games to the Bills. The Bengals and Dolphins are horrid teams that the Bills had to make comebacks on. They played the Patriots tough no small task even in a one possession loss. The Bills also took care of the Giants fairly easily. But the Bills did get smacked by the Eagles in their other loss. Overall in the NFL you are what your record says you are and more often than not if you win the games you are supposed to win you are going to finish with a winning record (especially with this teams schedule.) The Way I look at it is if the Bills can win 3 out of the next 4 they will be set up to win 10 games which is good enough for a playoff spot. 10 games plus a playoff game would be an excellent way for the culture and team confidence to improve. The Bills are maneuvered enough cap wise to take care of their own talent via extensions and add a piece or two to the existing roster. I see no reason why the Bills couldn't take care of key players like Milano, White, and Dawkins to new deals while also grabbing an elite pass rusher and maybe another starting caliber piece via free agency. They can then add a WR and a RT via the draft to bolster the offense while further loading up on depth via the back and middle portions of the draft.

This team has much better depth and overall talent than the 2008 and for sure 2011 teams. I also think that the team is much better coached overall than those two teams. I think 10 wins is super realistic. If they win 3 out of the next 4 that puts them at 8-3. They then have a tough stretch against the Cowboys, Pats, Ravens, and Steelers, even if they go 1-3 they enter into week 17 against the Jets at home at 9-6. I think ideally you want to win the next 4 (the only tough game you have is against the Browns which is a game you should be favored or a push away.) But even if you get a loss in there it still sets up you to a realistic path to 10 wins and a likely playoff spot. I think this roster is simply better built than the past 5-1 teams that disappointed.