Thurman#1

While I agree with most of your post, Manning wasn't as bad that year as people want to make out. He was still making terrific decisions even though his arm was pretty much gone. He was reduced to a game manager but Manning ran 3 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives during the regular season, in 9 games. And one game did both in the playoffs besides. I do agree with you that he's going to work with Flacco.

This. Two wouldn't be all that unlikely, though. I could imagine three, though I really really doubt it. Last year the top four were expected to go first round and the guess fairly early was three in or near the top ten. Doesn't look like that is happening this year. Not much comparison between the two crops.

Yup. Would've been an excellent move if Wood hadn't had tremendously horrible luck with that neck injury. Any long contract could be made to look bad by a career-ending injury. Pure bad luck.

Yeah, me too. I'm really hoping for improvements in his mechanics and accuracy.

Nah. Plenty of second-year QBs who didn't do much eventually became terrific. Look at Eli Manning. In his second year he completed 52.8%, had 24 TDs and 17 INTs, and a QB rating of 75.9. Drew Brees in his second year had 17 TDs, 16 INTs, had an epically horrible YPA of 6.2 and a passer rating of 76.9. Nobody likes to hear this, but while some guys get it soon, and some guys see a lot of improvement in their second year, some take till their third, fourth or even fifth year to get it.

So, first you say, "So it's extremely reasonable to think Beane had Allen graded out as his 2nd QB just behind Darnold (pretty sure he basically said that about as directly as a GM can after the draft)" with no link whatsoever. If he did say that in any way, I never saw it. Where did he say that anywhere, directly or not? Second, after I said he wasn't likely to be picked in the top two, and challenged Doc to provide a link after the date of the trade where a mock picked Allen in the top two, you provide four links. Thing is, one of your links DOESN'T have him in the top two, the second has him as #1, but admits it's only because of "leaks" out of Cleveland saying they will go Allen, the third is specifically set up as a theoretical "what happens if Allen gets picked first" scenario. He's not predicting that. He's setting up the theoretical and predicting what would happen. And the fourth isn't a mock or a prediction, it's saying he's heard a rumor out of NY that they're interested in Allen and speculating what might happen if that's true. 1) https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-browns-take-sam-darnold-at-no-1-josh-allen-to-jets-and-other-predictions/ LaCanfora's "here are a few things I could see going down," list of "fearless predictions. And LaCanfora isn't a draft expert, he's a reporter with great sources. That's what he's doing here, reacting to sources. 2) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/josh-allen-thinks-jets-trade-move-no-3-pick-article-1.3885810%3foutputType=amp This is Josh Allen's reaction to the Jets tradeup. It calls him one of the "Big Three in this quarterback class (along with Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen)," so it sure isn't on target, but more, it doesn't in any way put Allen in the top two. 3) https://www.theringer.com/2018/4/17/17245210/nfl-mock-draft-4-0-josh-allen-cleveland-browns Danny Kelly's mock. I've never heard of him, but I've heard of the Ringer somewhere. But as you yourself quoted him above, he's not putting him there on his idea of talent, he's doing it because he has heard rumors that Cleveland will pick him. He names Peter King saying King has a source close to Dorsey who believed Cleveland will ick Allen, and Breer and Jeremiah and Zierlein all have sources on this. In other words, he's reacting to Dorsey's lies. He says himself, "There's a growing list of reporters and analysts who seem convinced that Cleveland's interest in Allen is genuine. ... It's lying season for sure, and it may just be an elaborate smoke screen, but sometimes all that smoke means there's a fire." And, you know, sometimes not. 4) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ganggreennation.com/platform/amp/2018/4/26/17287050/jets-draft-rumor-coaches-pushing-for-josh-allen This is a Jets board and he admits he has no idea whether it's true and essentially says that if it was true, it would be interesting. Also points out that it will be controversial as Allen is the fan base's "least popular selection by far." Yeah, you are quite right that Mayfield going first was not the expectation early, or even right as it happened. And I do remember, I think, you thinking that Darnold was Buffalo's #1 pick, amidst the tide of your Allen hatred. But I have yet to see Beane saying anything about who would have been the Bills first or second choices if no QBs had been picked earlier. I'd love to see what you are taking to mean that Allen was the second, or that Darnold was the first.

If there's one thing we know for sure, it's that Allen wasn't in the Jets top two. In fact, he wasn't even in their top three. After the draft, Breer put out an EXTREMELY detailed insider access story including quoted texts, day by day summaries, and on and on about the Jets pursuit of a QB. He went back for two years describing the very earliest roots of the Jets process. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/05/16/new-york-jets-sam-darnold-2018-draft "When the Jets dealt up to the No. 3 spot in the draft in March, they’d identified three quarterbacks—Darnold, Mayfield, and UCLA’s Josh Rosen—they were good with. This [Darnold, their favorite, falling to #3] was better than that." AND "The Jets check back with the Browns, who inform them it would take “an arm and a leg” for New York to move up for the first pick. The Jets don’t call the Giants. Why? The belief is because the two teams are in the same market, the Jets would have to pay a tax for the second pick. Also, keeping their trade pursuit quiet is paramount, to keep others from springing into action and setting off a bidding war. Tipping the Giants off, particularly with their connections to the quarterback-hungry Bills’ front office, would have been risky. Indeed, this is where relationships are important. Colts GM Chris Ballard and Maccagnan have one. Dodds and Heimerdinger have one. Indy VP Rex Hogan worked for the Jets from 2015 to ’17, with ties to Maccagnan and Heimerdinger. The Jets know they can trust Indy, and they’re willing to pay a little over the point value to get the third pick, in exchange for Indy keeping the talks confidential. On Thursday, March 15, Dodds passes Heimerdinger off to Ballard, and the deal is done early Saturday. The Jets send their slotted second-rounders for 2018 and ’19, plus the Richardson second-rounder, to Indy to move up from 6 to 3, knowing there are three QBs they’d value there. Maccagnan and Heimerdinger call Johnson for his sign-off. It’s not hard to get." AND "APRIL 8, 2018 "The final set of draft meetings is underway, and it’s time for scouts to present their background on players. Three stand out on the Jamal Adams level: Darnold, Mayfield and Barkley. Zach Truty, the national scout, has Mayfield. Shields, the area scout, has Darnold, Allen and Rosen. He’s written up 320 players in the 2018 draft cycle, but spent about 20-25% of his time over the last year on those three. "The quarterback the Jets believe they won’t get stands out to everyone in the room, along with the quarterback they would wind up never having a shot at. "The grading scale goes to 9. Truty’s report marks Mayfield a perfect 9—exceedingly uncommon—as a teammate, leader and worker, but has lower grades elsewhere on him. Shields has Darnold in the 8s across the board—in football character, family background, personal character, off-field, work ethic, coachability, accountability, leader by example, vocal leader, physical toughness and mental toughness." If the Giants had picked Darnold, the Jets were going Rosen, their 3rd choice.

You're right, Doc. Anything is possible, theoretically. I mean, Taron Johnson might theoretically have been the first overall pick. But just as we for all practical purposes knew that Taron Johnson would not be first later in the process it became clear that Allen was very unlikely to go within the first two QBs. The Jets trade happened March 19th. QB order had settled down a bit by then. Can you find a mock with Allen in the top three after that date? Check this reaction to the trade from Burleson and Kay Adams on GMF. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922048/article/jets-trade-for-no-3-pick-shakes-up-first-round-of-2018-nfl-draft Burleson (talking about the Jets and the trade): It seems like Rosen is the chosen one. Even though they put the $10 mill with McCown, even though they put the $7 million in with Teddy Bridgewater, getting another QB that could be the future could be something that would help get this organization going in the right direction. Adams: You're saying it's Rosen, but Rosen could easily go #1 to the Browns, or maybe the Giants are taking a quarterback at #2, maybe they take Rosen, Darnold. Picking at #3 doesn't necessarily mean you get the guy you love. So to me they either like these guys evenly, they like Rosen as much as they like Mayfield as much as they like Darnold." It's not a coincidence that the only guy they don't mention of the top four is Allen. He wasn't likely to go top two of the QBs.

Faith is a wonderful thing. Doesn't work out well even close to all the time, though. Pretty much 100% of people who get married have faith - zero doubt - that the marriage will work out and their partner will never cheat. The real world doesn't always support faith, though.

Correct, but by that time, it was becoming apparent that Allen was probably not one of the top two. Darnold was. There were some questions about whether Rosen or Mayfield would be the other of the first two. So while there's no proof, it was pretty likely that Allen wasn't their original first choice. Can never be proved, but the fact that they were furious is a strong indicator, as it wasn't likely (by that point) that Allen would be gone that early. Things seem to have worked out OK, so far at least.

Yeah, that tends to happen when you get #######s after you consistently. Most people were really nice but there were a few people who were just consistently offensive and why stay around in that case if you're not getting paid.

It's true, and very obviously so. You can't write Rodak's name on these boards, or the old ones, without a personal attack on him within a post or two. And his stuff is fine, there's no problem with it. I'm not really a fan but his work is just fine. Graham is really talented. As reported in the OP's link, he won another APSE Top Ten national award this year for best feature story.

Elway has a championship and he built that defense. He's good till the evidence shows he's not. And having great trouble finding a franchise QB in the NFL is not proof you're a bad GM.

And a first round picks on the offensive line in 2018 (Wynn), a 3rd in '17, a 3rd in '16, a 1st in '11 (Solder), a 2nd in '09 (Vollmer) ... Mankins was a first. Those are only the guys from the top three rounds, not all their OL picks. They value it in the draft. During the same period, the Bills have gone OL in the 2nd (Dawkins), the 3rd (Miller), the 2nd (Kouandjio), a 2nd (Glenn), a 1st (Wood), a 2nd (Levitre, who's still playing). The Pats used three 1sts, the Bills only one, who was an excellent center for years for us and would've still been here if not for the neck thing that caused his retirement. The Bills have used more 2nds, and gotten some good players out of it, Dawkins and Glenn in particular, but haven't devoted a lot of 1sts to it. The Pats have. Yeah, they've got an excellent OL coach. Maybe we do too. With the personnel we had there last year, I'd say they over-achieved.

So, to re-state, there's an opinion out there you disagree with? And you find this shocking and unreasonable? Gosh, glad you shared that.

That's not a very sensible opinion. Says a lot more about you than it does about the players.

You should be very surprised. Don't expect them to move up that early in the draft now that they've got QBs on both O and D. 9th to 6th would be 250 points, roughly a low 2nd or high 3rd rounder. They aren't giving away those picks. Those are the ones they can pick guys like Bradbury, Ximines or Deebo with.

Can you make a strong case? Do it, then. To me, the only case you could make is that it's similar to most FA classes where significant money is spent without picking up one of the top five or ten guys. And there have been hundreds of FA classes like that across the league. And yeah, some of those FA classes have been awful. And some exceptionally good. And most somewhere in the middle of the bell curve.

Oh, please. You know a point is weak when the writer has to exaggerate so immensely. Produce some links where people the FO said McCarron was an "incredible" value, mentioned a "magic hat," he'd pulled anything out of, or said Star "would be a star." Star's been very good, he's done what they wanted from him, and he shows no signs whatsoever of being being a temporary hole fill. Yes, FA was used to fill holes. This year too. In fact, it's pretty much what FA is for. And blaming Beane for Vontae in light of how he left is just stupid. Yes, when you sign someone you say positive things about him, and that's not just the Bills. But you had to exaggerate what was said precisely because the point is so weak. The good news about Lotulelei is that he's here and doing what they want him to do. The rest of the "duds Beane signed" include Hauschka, Levi Wallace, McKenzie, Foster, Anderson, Gaines, and a bunch of others, some of whom have done well, and others of whom haven't. And he brought them in in a year when they had serious salary cap problems and not a lot of cash to throw around. How come you left out those guys? They don't fit your narrative? How about constructing a narrative strong enough, next time, to stand up to all the facts? As for "high potential for flameouts," nonsense. No more than any other group of FAs. Your last paragraph, at least, makes a lot of sense. I disagree that there's only one thing FA is good for. It's good for a lot of purposes. But yeah, one of the primary ones is what you're talking about, filling in the gaps so you can draft for BPA.

The problem wasn't Mario or his contract. The defense was good enough for several years there. The problem was Fitzy at QB. Bringing in a QB who has franchise potential was absolutely something they should have done long ago and was desperately needed. Choosing Allen as that guy ... well, we'll see. Too early to say, though I'm hopeful. I do like the way the new FO works. A lot. But they still have a lot to prove.

Sometimes it happens that way. Other times it doesn't. Sometimes it doesn't take days to investigate. Other times it does. Just wait. Yeah, this too. It works both ways. Wait.

Nobody says half a decade. If a rebuild takes that long there were some major setbacks. But the Browns rebuild is in Year 4 at this point. It didn't begin this year. It began with Sashi Brown, if not earlier. This year they appear to have hit the tipping point, but it's been a long painful rebuild for Browns fans. But worth it. Two years ago people on here tried to use the Browns as evidence that rebuilds were stupid and didn't work. The sensible folk on here said, "Their future looks great. Look at their draft picks. Yeah, they're terrible this year but things look very good there." And now we see it. Rebuilds take time, complete ones anyway. Three years is about the shortest it's ever worked in. Yeah, there are plenty of one-year turnarounds ... that were either reloads of pretty decent teams that were only a key player or three away, or were actually not one-year turnarounds but instead the third or fourth year of a long and painful turnaround ala the Browns where they finally get good. But that's not a one-year turnaround. It's the year you finally see all the pain come to fruition.

Hunh? Not sure what you mean so I'll answer my own question. If you already think he's shown he's the franchise QB, I'd argue your threshhold for "franchise QB" is too low. He's still got a lot to prove. And it won't be a play that makes him the franchise QB if he gets there, it'll be the consistency of his play and particularly his passing over a long period of time.

Go look at the frequency they traded up in Carolina in the early rounds. Wildly unlikely. Not impossible, but wildly unlikely.

Please. May be off the table for you, but for nobody else is trading back gone. Might not happen, but you can bet they still think it's an option. Trading up? Yeah, not in the first round. Last year they had two massive holes they needed to fill, particularly at QB but also at the Kuechle spot in McD's defence. This year no massive holes. Not unless someone like Bosa falls to sixth or seventh or something wild like that.