Thurman#1

Absolutely not. The 26 year old Julio? Yeah. Now? Doesn't have a long future.

Ronnie Stanley.

I don't. But what's sure is that if you look at last year, Beane's only year in harness, they didn't do anything to make anyone think so. They had a ton of picks to start. And even after the trades, they left themselves with at least one pick in every round except the 2nd, but they had two in the first. If they do something this year where they move up while leaving themselves nothing in an early round, it'll be the first time.

BPA.

Certainly possible. But last year was absolutely not an ordinary year. Their main draft goal for 2017 and 2018 both together was to accumulate enough draft capital to trade up for a QB. But after they'd already picked Allen, they traded up again, people say. Yeah, but they'd gathered so much capital that after Allen they still had yet another 1st, as well as two thirds. So after they traded up for Edmunds, they had taken two guys in the first. So by the end of the third they had made three picks, namely two firsts and a third. After two rounds they had two guys, after three rounds, three, and so it went till the fifth, after which they had six guys. This year they have two fourths and two fifths. (By the way, I wouldn't call what we have a "multitude," myself.) I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them trading one or both of those extras. I don't think they'll be so thrilled about trading away any picks earlier than that.

Me, I think any trade where we have to give away a third or more isn't in a sweet spot. More sour unless you traded back from nine and picked up an extra three or something like that.

Fine, that's what you say. There's a good chance you're very wrong. And the reason Bills fans think Rosen's a punk is very simple. He didn't get drafted by Buffalo. Most Bills fans didn't want anything to do with Josh Allen. Mysteriously, that has turned around now that he's wearing our jersey, as it would have for Rosen if it had been him taking snaps from Morse next year.

Rosen's OL was even worse, and Fitzgerald is very very old. Kirk is decent, especially for a rookie, but you have to resort to Johnson? He's no LeSean McCoy, though maybe he was last year. Rosen's situation was worse than Allen's. Right now, he's more accurate than Allen. That could change if Allen changes his mechanics successfully. Both guys could yet succeed or fail. Yeah, agreed.

"Not actively chasing" him? Not that they wouldn't do so sometime in the future? That's not a big story for them. The timing will be crucial. Before or after the draft is a tactical question that the Cards and suitors might want different answers to, and it might affect value too. If he goes anywhere. I'm certainly not convinced, though it's absolutely a strong possibility. That opinion might change over time.

Don't bet that an Andre Roberts return means the difference between a win and a loss. Not unless you get 10 or 20 to one. He's likely to have several biggish returns if he has a big year. The odds that any will be the difference are high. It'll be enough if he affects field position consistently and directly contributes to a couple of scores. That would be success. If we want to, we could easily find ten guys who make the roster or the practice squad. Might not. But it wouldn't be some incredible feat whatsoever.

Bashing the Bills for letting him go is hardly "you would have thought we let a first ballot wr walk," as said above, or the snideness of "prior to Canton" in the headline. And that's the kind of stuff that always gets said, never by folks who like Hogan. Always by people making fun of the folks who criticized the Hogan cut. If anything it proves the original point. The actual criticism was extremely reasonable. That's why the folks who didn't like it even to this day have to wildly exaggerate what was actually said. Whaley cut Hogan largely because he'd been such a spendthrift that we were in cap trouble despite being a team that was at best mediocre. We were in such crap shape that they could give Hogan only a minimum salary one year tender. Whaley tried to keep him, and couldn't. And the cheap-ass Pats gave him $4 mill a year over three years, and structured the contract to stop Buffalo from matching. "The Patriots signed Hogan to a three-year, $12 million offer sheet that will have a high amount of guaranteed money. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the three-year offer sheet will feature a $5.5 million salary cap hit for the 2016 season. With a $5.5 million cap hit for the upcoming season, the Bills would have been left with under $1 million in current cap space -- making their ability to match the offer sheet highly unlikely. The Bills chose to use the lowest possible tender on Hogan, which gave them a cap hit of $1.671 million, and in doing so they only assured themselves the right of first refusal for the wide receiver. The Bills did not match the offer sheet, and because it's the lowest tender, they will receive no draft pick compensation from New England." https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/bills-decline-offer-hogan-headed-to-patriots Incompetence, poor cap handling, tendering him for less than half of what he eventually got per year and being outsmarted and outmaneuvered by Belichick. Of course we were pissed. Rightly so. You didn't have to think Hogan was Megatron to think the Bills *****ed that up. Hell, you didn't have to think Hogan was an above average #3 receiver. He'd been the 3rd most productive WR on the Bills. During his first year with the Patriots, we brought in Percy Harvin for $6 mill and got nothing. Woods was our most productive WR with 613 yards, Watkins and Goodwin were #2 and #3 with 430 and 431 yards. But yeah, we had all the receivers we needed. Justin Hunter was our #4 with 189. And Hogan got 680 on 58 targets and 38 catches in NE, and that would have made him the most productive on our team. People were pissed because how it happened was utterly stupid, because they could have had him for a lot less than Belichick - a fairly smart cookie, they say -ended up paying him, and because he was a decent player replaced by guys who weren't as good. It was a move that sucked.

Thanks, Pete. Good stuff.

"You just gotta have a vertical tight end in this league to be a top tier offense that’s just all there is to it," you say? So, the Rams, who have Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, are then obviously not a top tier offense? That's all there is to it? About the Saints, were they not a top tier offense? Or if they were, which one of Josh Hill, Dan Arnold or Garrett Griffin was the vertical tight end last year? I wouldn't mind one of the top TEs, but it's just not true that there are no good offenses without a vertical TE.

BPA. My guess at that would be Jamaal Taylor or Jonah Williams.

I'm sure there's a point to this. But it's not clear and I realize I don't care.

Ed Oliver has been an absolute freakin' monster as a run defender. Winning with speed and athleticism doesn't mean bad run defense. It means winning with speed and athleticism.

The thing about an offenses is that good defenses can do a good job stopping them. What were the scores of the last few playoff games again? It really isn't an offense-driven league and particularly not "for a few years," as you contest. Last year it leaned that way till the most important part of the year. And even before that it was an unusual year. No reason to think that's not part of the eternal cycle. In any case, what any of us like is beside the point. What Beane will do is the point, and he's made that as plain as the nose on your face. BPA. How many times does he have to say it? You don't like it? Fair enough. But you're not the one who'll use the pick. Beane is.

It's what most big boards out there look like. The consensus is that the top ten is pretty much all defenders with the exception of QBs. And maybe Jawaan Taylor, who I wouldn't mind. And sure, ours could be different. But if you're going to ignore what everyone's saying because it's convenient for a wish to pick an offensive skill guy, then why bother guessing? Best guess is the BPA will be defense, unless it's Taylor or we trade back. Haven't seen many boards w/ non-QB offense guys over Oliver.

I don't think anyone here gives a ***** about your political opinions, and if we did, we wouldn't come to twobillsdrive to hear it. Keep it about football and when you want to say something angry and stupid, take a few breaths and maybe go jogging or something. Your first paragraph here in NO WAY belongs on this site. And yeah, probably same could be said of Glazeduck, but he's keeping things a bit closer to propriety.

It seems that way to me, though there also seems to be a lack of effort. But he definitely isn't running routes the way he did early in his career. It's a shame.

You can keep saying it. It seems obvious you feel compelled to do so, even if it means hijacking a thread as you attempted to do here. Doesn't make it true, though. In fact, it's not. Beane's results are mixed, and really pretty decent for how little money he was able to spend. They signed Jordan Phillips, he's worked out well. They signed Derek Anderson, he worked out well and cheap. Yarbrough, he's worked out well and cheap. They re-signed Kyle Williams, he worked out well. They signed Lotulelei, he's been expensive and worked out well. He hasn't lived up to some expectations ... there's been outrage, screams from thousands of would-be GMs living in thousands of mom's basements all over America, but he's done what McD wanted, and been part of a cheap #1 ranked defense. Bodine was cheap and without him Groy would have made the O-line look considerably worse than they finally did. Bush was super-cheap and solid. Isaiah McKenzie was a terrific pickup for $555 K for the year. He traded for EJ Gaines who's far outperformed his salary. He traded for Jordan Matthews who unluckily got injured but has been on rosters since and performed decently. Philly took him right back when they had the chance. He's been signed by SF for next year for a bit more than the Bills paid for him for his injured year. Yes, there have been some bad ones too. No question, Benjamin didn't work out in any sense. But plenty of deals that are solid for the money or even just plain solid. So your contention here is just nonsense. He's had mixed prop personnel results, but plenty of decent moves. The problem is that he had very little money to spend and picking up a lot of vet min guys is not going to produce a ton of excellent starters. That's what most of Beane's moves have been up till this offseason, due to cap problems. For how much they paid, there were plenty of guys who were solid pickups. Guess I'll copy this so I don't have to look it up yet again next time. It's clear you're going to keep re-cycling this nonsense no matter how many times it doesn't fly. And no matter how many threads you have to attempt to hijack.

Not that simple, maybe. The guy promised $250 M, then only delivered part of it to the league. He could be found responsible. Bottom line is we just don't know either way. Depends on the contracts and the details.

Doh!! Missed that. Good question for you, Bill. If one QB goes above us, which of those other eight is most likely to fall in your opinion, Bill. EDIT: Ah, you already answered while I typed.

I could easily see Oliver fall, myself. I think his size might bother someone easily. If two teams go QB above us, that would leave only three teams to not go QB (Murray and Haskins?), Bosa, Quinnen and Josh Allen) in the top eight for Oliver to fall. Taylor, Sweat, Gary and White could all slip in there very reasonably, IMO. I think we're going BPA too, but Beane has made it clear that sometimes BPA strategy can include a trade, though again, they'd put together a ton of draft capital for last year's drafts in expectation of trading up for a QB. And there are honest differences about who is BPA at any given point.

Fair enough. But good evaluators can have different views. I mean, Daniel Jeremiah has Hockenson, Christian Wilkins, Josh Jacobs and Devin Bush in the top nine of his big board. And Gary tenth. And that's on a board with no QBs in the top ten. I like Burns a lot, actually. Maybe I could change my mind a bit. I don't do nearly the work that you appear to do, but I like Jonah Williams quite a bit. I don't know enough about Ferrell to have a sensible opinion.