Thurman#1

No problem, man. Yeah, I try never to rely on A.I. I see them making so many mistakes, with bland confidence. Have a good day.

Yup. Mind you, it was very clear that Allen looked awful the first two or three playoff drives at KC last year. But he came alive and the offense was damn good the rest of the way. The problem was the defense. The D was pretty healthy most of the season but right at the end they had a ton of health issues and they were just not the same last year in the playoff game at KC without the injured group.

They were going to keep Diggs until he forced his way out. Sean didn't like the INTs and turnovers, but he is not and was not stupid. He loved the high numbers and explosive plays.

Jeudy's catch rate last year was 62.1% while Moore's was 59.8%. That difference on the number of catches Moore had is statistically insignificant. It's basically a two-catch difference over the course of a season. Same for the team catch percentage, which was 62.3%, again not significant. And that includes all team receptions, including RBs and TEs, who generally catch at higher rates because they're getting easier passes. Looking at WRs only, Moore was 2nd highest on the team among WRs with more than three targets. Moore's longest catch that year was 44 yards, and only Jeudy had a longer one among all pass catchers on that team. In 2023 the team catch percentage for all positions was 59.5% while Moore's was 56.7%, and he had the 2nd highest catch % on the team that year, second to David Bell at 60.9% on 14 catches, though Amari Cooper was at 56.3% and he was targeted with much longer Y/A than was Moore. Moore's longest was 42 yards. This is his fifth year and his longest catch each year was 62, 42, 42, 44 and this year 31 so far. He's been targeted long before, with some success as the consistency of long plays shows. In his second year, with the Jets, catching passes from Zach Wilson, Flacco and Mike White he had the highest catch % among WRs with ten catches or more, ahead of rookie Garrett Wilson by less than 1%. As a rookie, Crowder and Berrios were way ahead of everyone else in catch %, while the rest of those with ten catches or more were all within 3% of each other. Here's his rookie highlights. If I've counted correctly there are 7 plays of 20 yards or more, including 5 with more than 20 air yards. Here's last year from Cleveland. Four plays over 20, including two with over 20 air yards, including a beautiful long TD caught deep in the corner of the end zone that went about 35 yards in the air. You don't see him doing pure bombs. But he does do long routes. Effectively. Ick. You made me look at Cleveland and Jets numbers.

This is my guess. I don't see Dorian being able to handle the "play like a lineman" part of the Hoecht role. But Solomon yesterday did seem to maybe have the "quick as a linebacker" abilities. But it may have been more surprise than ability for Solomon the other day. We'll see. You have to be a really special guy. Not sure it's on the team at all.

Nice!!

Yeah, exactly. Noticed the same thing. You don't see too many 217 pound DTs.

It's not publicly traded. So that valuation is an estimation, at best.

Agreed, and very much so. People complain, with some justification, about keeping Shavers out there. The guy blocks very well and very consistently. It all adds up. Mike Gillislee!!!! Wow, that's a blast from the past!!!!

Yeah, but it cost Thurman. Take a look at his year by years Yards Per Attempt stats. 1988 4.3 on 207 carries 1989 4.2 on 298 carries 1990 4.8 on 271 carries 1991 4.9 on 288 carries 1992 4.8 on 312 carries 1993 3.7 on 355 carries 1994 3.8 on 287 carries 1995 3.7 on 267 carries 1996 4.2 (way down to) 154 carries 1997 4.1 on 93 carries 1998 4.2 on 36 carries 1999 4.9 on 28 carries After those first five years with so many carries, he lost a step. Again, he was still very good but not what he'd been. And if you look at his passing stats they show the exact same pattern, his yards and Yards Per Catch nosedived after those first five high mileage years. James Cook is 5'11" and 190 while Thurman was 5'10 206. That's a very significant difference. Thurman, in size, was a very close match to James' brother Dalvin, not to James. And defenders were smaller in Thurman's day.

I hope you are right about that. I'm not convinced, but I definitely hope you are right. Thurman Thomas was also a guy who mostly squirted through things and didn't take big hits. But time took its toll, as it generally does. After those first five years his YPA took a very noticeable dip, and though he was always a very good RB, he wasn't what he'd been in those first five years. I agree that James and Dalvin have different styles, but also different body types. At 5'10, Dalvin is shorter but 15 pounds heavier. James isn't nearly as big and strong. I worry about his wear and tear, but from your keyboard to God's ears.

He is playing sensationally. The question is whether we should keep running him at this pace, and whether his body will hold up under this strain. And whether he can in fact hold up at a pace like this for three or four more years. His brother couldn't, and he is a bigger stronger dude, though with a more bruising style. In any case, the contract they gave James looks like a very good one, even with signing him a year early, which usually implies the team gets a discount. I'm hoping they ease his workload a bit, getting him out of games early whenever possible. Ty Johnson looked pretty good against the Chiefs, maybe if Ray and Ty start to look as solid as they did last year we can do that more. Thurman was an absolute work horse, but he was never really quite as good after those first five years. And Thurman was 15 pounds heavier than James is.

IMO they aren't there yet, except maybe the Chargers. But it's a new group of up and comers, two or three of whom will likely be for real, though not really this year. Except for the Chargers, I think. They can beat anyone on any given day, if they play their best and Herbert is on fire. Yeah, this is a reasonable argument. I don't think the Chiefs lineup is as great anymore as they were the last few years.

Must be hard being so tempted to argue with yourself. Your idea here about trading Oliver, genuinely, it's dead stupid. Clearly you don't get that. But it is.

Van was spectacular, Murph was very good, and Brown is really solid. IMO.

It isn't every year, even though it does seem like it. We've had I believe two years with far below the usual numbers, one or so that was about average, and three of the last five higher than usual. The problem is that these numbers are always wildly variable, even on teams with great training and conditioning staffs. The largest amount of NFL injuries are unpredictable and unavoidable. Again, even teams with great preparation have years when they're over the average and years when they're under and average. It's when things start to be more unvarying that you can see you have a problem. And this staff is very new, so it's hard to know what's up with them yet. Having said that, a bad staff can make a big difference. It isn't clear these guys are bad. If / when it becomes clear, I hope they do something about it immediately. I'm sure they will.

Great idea. Get rid of Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, James Cook and Spencer Brown. That will make us feel that we're all macho and that we're doing something.

The problem isn't never winning a playoff road game. The problem is Kansas City. Let's not kid ourselves. Since they became a good enough team, in 2020 to win playoff games, they've only had three away games, all losses to Kansas City. And the problem wasn't being away. They lost their home playoff game to Kansas City as well. The problem is Kansas City.

Josh's completion percentage is higher than it's been since 2020. And shorter passes will tend to do that.

Palmer and Shakir are separating WRs. Kincaid is a separating TE. And where were all the separating WRs last year when the passing offense looked a lot better than it has the past two or three games? People want to pretend it's really simple. It's not. Even if you watch all-22. There's a lot of things not looking quite as good, including Josh missing throws and not being confident of his footwork. A lot of valuables at play, including game planning, play design, etc. An extra upgrade at WR would help. It would likely not eliminate all the problems. Some, though. But if it's costs a bunch of resources, it would require downgrades elsewhere, now or later, that would cut team performance. This really is a balancing act more than people want to admit. The goal here isn't to have a great WR room. It's to have a great team that performs well together.

Yeah, I still can't figure why Ty Johnson doesn't seem to be quite the same guy this year. I think that explains why we don't seem him as much. The first few games he had chances and wasn't as good. IMO we've got to start throwing more to the TEs and RBs as well. Haven't seen that as much lately.

What does Mahomes have at the WR position that would be considered elite ... also NOTHING!!! Out of the three teams you mentioned with good WRs, two are not very good teams. Spending so many resources on WRs has not helped them get as close as the Bills have on a consistent basis. Philly is a good team, but Smith is not "elite," he just isn't. And it's arguable that the reason they spent so much is because their QB really isn't that good as a passer compared to guys like Mahomes, Burrow and Josh, and needs support in that specific place. And the Chiefs are the best of the bunch on offense, without anyone elite, though they do have two solid guys, one of whom is probably a #1, though not a "true" #1. For several years now, though, they've done well without a #1. Not that I would mind if we could get someone else. But we're not getting guys who keep getting mentioned like Garrett Wilson and Waddle and A.J. Brown. Olave seems unlikely now, but he and Shaheed are likely the high end of the possible. And the tape really does show that Josh has had a relatively bad last two or three games, and that with Palmer, Shakir and Kincaid Josh has weapons in the pass game enough to be successful.

Good breakdowns with a ton of video. Mentioned early are Ogunjobi, Walker, Poyer's calming effect having a positive impact on Cole Bishop, and how the run fits were a lot better.

Interesting. Thanks for posting it. Worth noting that DVOA, which also adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Bills at #9 right now.

I just wish that reporters wouldn't say things like she does in this article like, "Hutchinson’s average annual salary of $45 million makes him the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, trailing only Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons, who earns $46.5 million per year after being traded from the Dallas Cowboys and signing an extension before the season." Neither of them has an average annual salary of $45M or $46.5M. Those are the average of the extension only, NOT of what the team will have to pay if they keep them until the end of the extensions. Hutchinson's extension starts in 2027 and ends after 2030, but he actually got $15M yesterday. From this year through 2030, he'll cost about $210.8M over 6 years, which comes to about $35M per year. Parsons' deal starts next year so the actual figures are closes to the value of the extension, but still quite a bit less over the course of the whole five years, which is the correct way to look at it, unless you are Parsons' agent. Hutchinson's terrific, and it's a good deal for the Lions. Nonsense. You can overpay anyone. It's harder to overpay great ones, but very far from impossible. Just a quick example is that Stefon Diggs was great when we signed his extension. Then stuff happened. Aiyuk was great, till he hasn't been. Quenton Nelson was great, till he hasn't been. Things change, guys get injured, stuff happens. And Beane's been very good and continues to be so. Not perfect, or close, but nobody is.