Thurman#1

Well, those people who say that Beane was calling the Bills draft picks two years ago are batshit crazy. Seriously. I see that you're not saying that, John, but anyone who does is nuts. The core values of this group are integrity and character, hard work and the process. If Beane had been receiving a salary from Carolina and then using his work and the work of the Carolina scouts to help the Bills compete with Carolina while still employed by them ... that would have been not just scandalous and indeed criminal but would show stunningly bad character. It would be industrial espionage. It's the absolute opposite of what this regime is about. It would violate the process. Beane's process at that time should have been the process of improving the team he was working for. Didn't happen!!

Nah. That argument simply doesn't work. Did they have talent before the arrival of McDermott and Beane? You're right, they did. Enough to get them to 7-9, and 8-8 the year before that. Yahoo-ee and yippee-ki-yay. No, they weren't absolutely bereft of talent. But they also had a bunch of holes, no QB and the kind of cap situation generally held by teams trying to milk a year or two more out of a franchise QB's dotage and a closing window. And your argument that it's a GM's duty to recognize talent is very reasonable. But the idea that it's a GM's duty to keep the talent at all costs is utter and complete crap. The GM's duty is to do what he told the owner he would do when the owner hired him. McDermott and Beane have been very consistent in letting everyone know what they promised the Pegulas. They promised them that they would get the Bills to a place where they would consistently be among the best in the league and would regularly compete for championships. They did NOT promise to win that year. Or the next. They did a near-complete rebuild. This was a choice, but it was frankly pretty obviously the correct choice. They were handed two massive handicaps. They had an awful cap situation and they had no franchise QB. Those two things together are generally death, unless you're lucky enough to be handed a team that went for one or two wins the year before and you now have the first or second draft pick. So they rebuilt. They promised the Pegulas they would completely fix the cap situation by the beginning of this season. That and the decision to rebuild meant they were in a situation where they were going to have to trade guys to accumulate draft capital to bring in a potential franchise QB and shed guys for cap reasons. You argue that they shed good talent for next to nothing. Nonsense. They shed it to be able to bring in Josh Allen, and luckily ended up with Edmunds as well. And they shed it to move money from the 2019 cap to the 2018 cap. This meant a ton of dead money in 2018 but also the cap freedom they are now enjoying this year and are carefully husbanding in a way that will allow them to have more freedom next year and for the foreseeable future. Clearing up that cap morass in two years was a huge and difficult task. And it required a lot of short-term pain.

There's not really such a thing as wasting one of the 90 spots. The last 30 are pure training camp fodder. If there's a shot at it working out, there's no real drawback. And yes, it absolutely is a meaningful effort at improving that crew. Not a guaranteed effort, but absolutely something that might work out. Or might not. But if they think he's got a shot it would absolutely be meaningful. And as for Logan Thomas ... if one guy taking a shot at switching positions fails, does that mean they all will? Yeah, he can catch. Here's a quick report on his HS career. "BEFORE OREGON — Standout tight end and defensive lineman for Traverse City West High School, garnered four stars from Scout.com … Rated as the No. 25 offensive tackle prospect nationally by Scout.com and fifth-best overall player in Michigan by Rivals.com … Helped Titans tie for Big North title in 2010, making 68 tackles on defense and grabbing 11 receptions for 232 yards … Selected first-team all-state and all-Big North as a defensive lineman following his senior season … Named second-team All-Big North as a junior tight end." https://goducks.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=3976 That's pretty terrific YPC yardage. But will he do a lot of receiving? Probably not, based on his reception totals.

Worth remembering that we weren't the only team that wanted him. There were five teams trying to sign him as a UDFA, and not one thought he was going to make it as TE. Peters wanted his hands on the ball, while teams thought correctly that he'd be better at OL.

It may be irrelevant to some point you're making about which I am not concerned. But it's completely relevant to what I'm saying with that post, which is that the Jets had Allen 4th and weren't going to take him under any circumstances at #3. In fact, it proves it. Several on here have continued to try to say that the Jets might have wanted Allen. Including the post I replied to just above this. They didn't. They had him 4th.

No. As I pointed out above, the Jets had Allen 4th. After the draft, Breer put out an EXTREMELY detailed insider access story including quoted texts, day by day summaries, and on and on about the Jets pursuit of a QB. He went back for two years describing the very earliest roots of the Jets process. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/05/16/new-york-jets-sam-darnold-2018-draft  "When the Jets dealt up to the No. 3 spot in the draft in March, they’d identified three quarterbacks—Darnold, Mayfield, and UCLA’s Josh Rosen—they were good with. This [Darnold, their favorite, falling to #3] was better than that."

Yeah, Beane does have his fingerprints all over a 2017 draft. That would be the 2017 draft of the Carolina Panthers. Here, it was McDermott who should be given most of the credit for the 2017 draft, with a bit to Whaley. As for 2018, yeah, it looks good too and Beane gets a ton of the credit.

Headlines are written by editors, not writers. Rodak is responsible for the rest of the content, but not the headline. And yeah, the Bills broke the playoff drought, but they did it with the benefit of an extremely easy schedule on top of an AFC that lacked talent after the top three or so teams. When you make the playoffs with a 9-7 record, it's not because you're a very good team. This is a strong, controversial way to put it, but that was a very reasonable way to look at the trades of Watkins and Darby, IMO. They were rebuilding. He got it wrong as to the season's result, but it was a reasonable opinion. And it's nonsense that all of Rodak's Bills coverage is negative. Some is negative, some is positive and some is neutral. Look at his recent tweet: "It's clear the Bills aren't messing around with their O-line rebuild," as just one quick example it took me 60 seconds or so to find. He also described Morse as a "strong signing." That took another 10 seconds. I'm not a Rodak fan but he does good work and the opinion out there by Bills fans that he's anti-Bills is one that most Bills fans seem to feel about most reporters who have columns. And is also true of most fans of most teams. Fans want more positive coverage than neutrality admits. It's part of being a fan. The Bills have been mediocre to bad for a long long time. But they've made some good moves each year and Rodak has been as good as anyone else at pointing those out and lauding them.

I don't think so many people are saying that DT is a need. More that DT is the strength of this draft near the top, and thus that if we stay at #9, the BPA is likely to be a DT, and that while DT isn't a hole, it's definitely an area where if we draft one at #9 we would be strengthening the team. I hear you when you say you are fine with Oliver. I just think if he's still there the chances are pretty decent he would be BPA, though I agree with you that edge rusher is a bigger need.

If we drafted Jawaan Taylor, the best five would likely be Dawkins - Long - Morse - Ty/Feliciano - Taylor, IMO.

Yes, it's been so, now, basically since Peters left. Seems to be a weird kink in Bills fans DNA.

While I agree with most of your post, Manning wasn't as bad that year as people want to make out. He was still making terrific decisions even though his arm was pretty much gone. He was reduced to a game manager but Manning ran 3 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives during the regular season, in 9 games. And one game did both in the playoffs besides. I do agree with you that he's going to work with Flacco.

This. Two wouldn't be all that unlikely, though. I could imagine three, though I really really doubt it. Last year the top four were expected to go first round and the guess fairly early was three in or near the top ten. Doesn't look like that is happening this year. Not much comparison between the two crops.

Yup. Would've been an excellent move if Wood hadn't had tremendously horrible luck with that neck injury. Any long contract could be made to look bad by a career-ending injury. Pure bad luck.

Yeah, me too. I'm really hoping for improvements in his mechanics and accuracy.

Nah. Plenty of second-year QBs who didn't do much eventually became terrific. Look at Eli Manning. In his second year he completed 52.8%, had 24 TDs and 17 INTs, and a QB rating of 75.9. Drew Brees in his second year had 17 TDs, 16 INTs, had an epically horrible YPA of 6.2 and a passer rating of 76.9. Nobody likes to hear this, but while some guys get it soon, and some guys see a lot of improvement in their second year, some take till their third, fourth or even fifth year to get it.

So, first you say, "So it's extremely reasonable to think Beane had Allen graded out as his 2nd QB just behind Darnold (pretty sure he basically said that about as directly as a GM can after the draft)" with no link whatsoever. If he did say that in any way, I never saw it. Where did he say that anywhere, directly or not? Second, after I said he wasn't likely to be picked in the top two, and challenged Doc to provide a link after the date of the trade where a mock picked Allen in the top two, you provide four links. Thing is, one of your links DOESN'T have him in the top two, the second has him as #1, but admits it's only because of "leaks" out of Cleveland saying they will go Allen, the third is specifically set up as a theoretical "what happens if Allen gets picked first" scenario. He's not predicting that. He's setting up the theoretical and predicting what would happen. And the fourth isn't a mock or a prediction, it's saying he's heard a rumor out of NY that they're interested in Allen and speculating what might happen if that's true. 1) https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-browns-take-sam-darnold-at-no-1-josh-allen-to-jets-and-other-predictions/ LaCanfora's "here are a few things I could see going down," list of "fearless predictions. And LaCanfora isn't a draft expert, he's a reporter with great sources. That's what he's doing here, reacting to sources. 2) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/josh-allen-thinks-jets-trade-move-no-3-pick-article-1.3885810%3foutputType=amp This is Josh Allen's reaction to the Jets tradeup. It calls him one of the "Big Three in this quarterback class (along with Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen)," so it sure isn't on target, but more, it doesn't in any way put Allen in the top two. 3) https://www.theringer.com/2018/4/17/17245210/nfl-mock-draft-4-0-josh-allen-cleveland-browns Danny Kelly's mock. I've never heard of him, but I've heard of the Ringer somewhere. But as you yourself quoted him above, he's not putting him there on his idea of talent, he's doing it because he has heard rumors that Cleveland will pick him. He names Peter King saying King has a source close to Dorsey who believed Cleveland will ick Allen, and Breer and Jeremiah and Zierlein all have sources on this. In other words, he's reacting to Dorsey's lies. He says himself, "There's a growing list of reporters and analysts who seem convinced that Cleveland's interest in Allen is genuine. ... It's lying season for sure, and it may just be an elaborate smoke screen, but sometimes all that smoke means there's a fire." And, you know, sometimes not. 4) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ganggreennation.com/platform/amp/2018/4/26/17287050/jets-draft-rumor-coaches-pushing-for-josh-allen This is a Jets board and he admits he has no idea whether it's true and essentially says that if it was true, it would be interesting. Also points out that it will be controversial as Allen is the fan base's "least popular selection by far." Yeah, you are quite right that Mayfield going first was not the expectation early, or even right as it happened. And I do remember, I think, you thinking that Darnold was Buffalo's #1 pick, amidst the tide of your Allen hatred. But I have yet to see Beane saying anything about who would have been the Bills first or second choices if no QBs had been picked earlier. I'd love to see what you are taking to mean that Allen was the second, or that Darnold was the first.

If there's one thing we know for sure, it's that Allen wasn't in the Jets top two. In fact, he wasn't even in their top three. After the draft, Breer put out an EXTREMELY detailed insider access story including quoted texts, day by day summaries, and on and on about the Jets pursuit of a QB. He went back for two years describing the very earliest roots of the Jets process. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/05/16/new-york-jets-sam-darnold-2018-draft "When the Jets dealt up to the No. 3 spot in the draft in March, they’d identified three quarterbacks—Darnold, Mayfield, and UCLA’s Josh Rosen—they were good with. This [Darnold, their favorite, falling to #3] was better than that." AND "The Jets check back with the Browns, who inform them it would take “an arm and a leg” for New York to move up for the first pick. The Jets don’t call the Giants. Why? The belief is because the two teams are in the same market, the Jets would have to pay a tax for the second pick. Also, keeping their trade pursuit quiet is paramount, to keep others from springing into action and setting off a bidding war. Tipping the Giants off, particularly with their connections to the quarterback-hungry Bills’ front office, would have been risky. Indeed, this is where relationships are important. Colts GM Chris Ballard and Maccagnan have one. Dodds and Heimerdinger have one. Indy VP Rex Hogan worked for the Jets from 2015 to ’17, with ties to Maccagnan and Heimerdinger. The Jets know they can trust Indy, and they’re willing to pay a little over the point value to get the third pick, in exchange for Indy keeping the talks confidential. On Thursday, March 15, Dodds passes Heimerdinger off to Ballard, and the deal is done early Saturday. The Jets send their slotted second-rounders for 2018 and ’19, plus the Richardson second-rounder, to Indy to move up from 6 to 3, knowing there are three QBs they’d value there. Maccagnan and Heimerdinger call Johnson for his sign-off. It’s not hard to get." AND "APRIL 8, 2018 "The final set of draft meetings is underway, and it’s time for scouts to present their background on players. Three stand out on the Jamal Adams level: Darnold, Mayfield and Barkley. Zach Truty, the national scout, has Mayfield. Shields, the area scout, has Darnold, Allen and Rosen. He’s written up 320 players in the 2018 draft cycle, but spent about 20-25% of his time over the last year on those three. "The quarterback the Jets believe they won’t get stands out to everyone in the room, along with the quarterback they would wind up never having a shot at. "The grading scale goes to 9. Truty’s report marks Mayfield a perfect 9—exceedingly uncommon—as a teammate, leader and worker, but has lower grades elsewhere on him. Shields has Darnold in the 8s across the board—in football character, family background, personal character, off-field, work ethic, coachability, accountability, leader by example, vocal leader, physical toughness and mental toughness." If the Giants had picked Darnold, the Jets were going Rosen, their 3rd choice.

You're right, Doc. Anything is possible, theoretically. I mean, Taron Johnson might theoretically have been the first overall pick. But just as we for all practical purposes knew that Taron Johnson would not be first later in the process it became clear that Allen was very unlikely to go within the first two QBs. The Jets trade happened March 19th. QB order had settled down a bit by then. Can you find a mock with Allen in the top three after that date? Check this reaction to the trade from Burleson and Kay Adams on GMF. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000922048/article/jets-trade-for-no-3-pick-shakes-up-first-round-of-2018-nfl-draft Burleson (talking about the Jets and the trade): It seems like Rosen is the chosen one. Even though they put the $10 mill with McCown, even though they put the $7 million in with Teddy Bridgewater, getting another QB that could be the future could be something that would help get this organization going in the right direction. Adams: You're saying it's Rosen, but Rosen could easily go #1 to the Browns, or maybe the Giants are taking a quarterback at #2, maybe they take Rosen, Darnold. Picking at #3 doesn't necessarily mean you get the guy you love. So to me they either like these guys evenly, they like Rosen as much as they like Mayfield as much as they like Darnold." It's not a coincidence that the only guy they don't mention of the top four is Allen. He wasn't likely to go top two of the QBs.

Faith is a wonderful thing. Doesn't work out well even close to all the time, though. Pretty much 100% of people who get married have faith - zero doubt - that the marriage will work out and their partner will never cheat. The real world doesn't always support faith, though.

Correct, but by that time, it was becoming apparent that Allen was probably not one of the top two. Darnold was. There were some questions about whether Rosen or Mayfield would be the other of the first two. So while there's no proof, it was pretty likely that Allen wasn't their original first choice. Can never be proved, but the fact that they were furious is a strong indicator, as it wasn't likely (by that point) that Allen would be gone that early. Things seem to have worked out OK, so far at least.

Yeah, that tends to happen when you get #######s after you consistently. Most people were really nice but there were a few people who were just consistently offensive and why stay around in that case if you're not getting paid.

It's true, and very obviously so. You can't write Rodak's name on these boards, or the old ones, without a personal attack on him within a post or two. And his stuff is fine, there's no problem with it. I'm not really a fan but his work is just fine. Graham is really talented. As reported in the OP's link, he won another APSE Top Ten national award this year for best feature story.

Elway has a championship and he built that defense. He's good till the evidence shows he's not. And having great trouble finding a franchise QB in the NFL is not proof you're a bad GM.

And a first round picks on the offensive line in 2018 (Wynn), a 3rd in '17, a 3rd in '16, a 1st in '11 (Solder), a 2nd in '09 (Vollmer) ... Mankins was a first. Those are only the guys from the top three rounds, not all their OL picks. They value it in the draft. During the same period, the Bills have gone OL in the 2nd (Dawkins), the 3rd (Miller), the 2nd (Kouandjio), a 2nd (Glenn), a 1st (Wood), a 2nd (Levitre, who's still playing). The Pats used three 1sts, the Bills only one, who was an excellent center for years for us and would've still been here if not for the neck thing that caused his retirement. The Bills have used more 2nds, and gotten some good players out of it, Dawkins and Glenn in particular, but haven't devoted a lot of 1sts to it. The Pats have. Yeah, they've got an excellent OL coach. Maybe we do too. With the personnel we had there last year, I'd say they over-achieved.