Thurman#1

No. Marshawn's YPCs in 2007 - 2010 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.6 Then when he started caring again ... in Seattle and Oakland: 4.2 5.0 4.2 4.7 3.8 4.3 4.2 Then Freddy the same four years as Marshawn above behind the same line: 5.2 4.4 4.5 4.2 It's not as if you can blame him. Poor guy was dealing with homesickness for the West Coast. I mean, homesickness. Who can deal with that and still make a living? It's not possible. I'm all for putting guys on the wall when they force their way out of town because they miss their hyphy music. How 'bout the Wall of Shame? How 'bout the Wall of Stealing $20s from Cop's Wives in Buffalo Bars?

Heath Miller is a borderline HOF player? No, he really isn't. With two pro bowls in eleven seasons, he really is not a borderline HOFer. Marcedes Lewis managed 1006 yards total in his first three years. A good solid guy, but as a first rounder, not a great pick. One pro bowl in 13 years. Greg Olsen may indeed be a HOFer, though it's not a sure thing. But as the OP points out, he was not especially productive in his first five years. Do we want to wait that long? Dustin Keller ... "one of the top 5 TEs in the league for a 2-3 year period"? Really? Not seeing that, dude, not at all. One year over 687 yards and was never a great blocker. In what year was he top 5? 2011, when he ranked 17th in both receptions and yards? 2010, when he was 11th in receptions and 9th in yards? In 2011 he was at least a bit close, 9th in receptions and 6th in yards. Not much of a blocker and was never a big TD guy, which is one of the main reasons you want a TD ... 17 TDs in five years. Zero pro bowls. Yeah, not seeing that at all. Brandon Pettigrew? "4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production"? Zero pro bowls. Good grief, dude, are you trolling your own argument here? 17 TDs in 7 years? You've wildly overestimated pretty much every one of these guys. "50% HOF or borderline HOF career"? Of that bunch of mostly pretty decent players? Seriously? Good grief. Most of them wouldn't be in consideration for the Hall of Very Good. Other than Olsen these guys were disappointments for first rounders. And Olsen as pointed out took till well into his second contract to become top-flight.

No, I wouldn't. Ridiculous argument, though. I mean, sure, if we knew how Hockenson was going to turn out, then yeah you'd draft him based on that. But we very much don't know the future. They got drafted where they were based on what people knew at the time, same as will happen this and every year.

You picked the top seven TEs? Eagles 14 Chiefs 1 Pats 5 Niners 16 Falcons 6 Raiders 23 Colts 7th Three out of the top seven are ranked 14th or below in offense. I don't think you made your point. I'd argue that if you look at the good teams on your list here what they have in common is that they're QB'd by some of the best in the business. That's probably not going to be the case in Buffalo, at least for another two or three years, if it happens, and I hope that it does. And you're being a bit choosy about who are the best TEs. The top ten in receptions are 1) Ert 2) Kelce 3) Kittle 4) Hooper 5) Cook 6) Ebron 7) Rudolph 8 ) Njoku 9) Graham T-1010) Burton T-10) Reed Four out of those 11 teams made the playoffs. Top ten in yards: 1) Kittle 2) Kelce 3) Ertz 4) Cook 5) Ebron 6) Gronk 7) Hooper 8 ) Njoku 9) Graham 10) Rudolph Three out of those 10 teams made the playoffs.

Plus I think there was one guy a few years back who didn't perform all that well, right?

Of course Oliver is comparable to Sapp. In hundreds of ways. Both have two arms, for a start. Both are male. But nobody said that Oliver has shown himself to be as good as Sapp was. That's nonsense. The comparisons have all been very reasonable. They are essentially pointed at the people saying you can't play interior D-line at that weight. Which is absolute nonsense, and Sapp is one of the names that should be mentioned to disprove that nonsense. Fair enough that Donald, Sapp and Jay Ratliff among others are exceptions to the rule. But Oliver is an exception too. Guy played fricking nose tackle at that low weight and kicked butt.

Realistic possibilities only ... who I want? Oliver Jonah Williams Sweat (depending what the team docs think about his heart) Jawaan Taylor Burns Hockenson Ford Didn't put much thought into that, but that's my quick thoughts.

Ah, I see that you said "on the first day of last season." Somehow I misread that as, "on the last day of last season." But though you weren't factually wrong, Henderson's job was by no means safe and he can't be said to have proved anything whatsoever. He could very easily have lost that job, and he could do so this year as well. I don't think you can count him as a starter in any way at this point. As I say, I really do wish him the best. My best friend is a doctor who specializes in Crohns and colitis and I know Henderson has fought through some tough breaks. And I totally disagree with you linking of 2013 and 2017. We know Whaley wasn't in charge for the absolute simplest of reasons. It was in the paper about a week and a half after they hired McD that the Pegulas were wildly impressed and that he was now defacto in charge. Whereas it has never been reported anywhere official that Whaley was the co-GM, even to this day. Does Whaley get some of the credit? Yeah, absolutely. He was the AGM. And yeah, he was in on every QB draft visit ... he'd been made head ... by Nix ... of a committee specifically formed to choose a QB. So he definitely gets co-credit for the Manuel decision. And yeah he was at the coaching interviews. So was Russ. Whaley was there because he was being groomed for the GM down the line. I'm glad we agree about the Pats not being bad drafters but it say something that they had much much better results those three years than we did though they were drafting much later and lost a first rounder to the Deflategate scandal. We lost a first-rounder too, but it was a very dumb voluntary move to give it up in the Watkins tradeup. During those three years they drafted Garoppolo, Flowers, James White, starting OLs Thuney and Mason, Malcom Brown, Elandon Roberts at ILB, and several guys who started for different teams last year. Grugier-Hill started for Philly, Jordan Richards for Atlanta, Darryl Roberts with the Jets, not to mention NE's starting long-snapper for the last four years. That's ten plus the long-snapper, who can't be counted as a starter, really. Much better than us with far lower draft slots.

Beane, I would guess. They've done a great job plugging all their major holes. The last thing they would then want to do is open one up at a very important position which is highly involved in the protection of Josh Allen. With no obvious replacement.

Yeah, it's easily possible Oliver is there at #9. Could also go the other way, though. If he's there, I think they pop a few champagne corks and grab him.

Sapp sometimes was far larger, as he did have a problem with getting fat. But when he was at his best he was not all that big a guy. Here's another story of him playing at 315 while fat and having a poor year for sacks and then reporting the next year "in the high 280s.". Except unlike your story, this wasn't when Sapp was near the end of his career with the Raiders, it was between his fourth and fifth years in Tampa, well before the Super Bowl win. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-1999-08-07-9908070161-story.html The thing that made Sapp exceptional was his extreme quickness. Yeah, he was strong too, but it was his speed that made him frightening. At the combine, he weighed in at 281, and even that light had a BMI of 37.97. 30 and over is obese, and yeah, most interior linemen would qualify, but even at 281 he was no sylph. http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Warren&l=Sapp&i=23696 Just went back and looked at the video of the Super Bowl win, and he's just not as big as your fat photos up there. He's still got a belly, but not the size of the photos higher up on this page. In any case, there are guys who've played very well on the interior at lower weights. Jay Ratliff is a good example, and he played nose tackle. Most of those lighter players are exactly Oliver's type, penetrators. And Oliver has been terrific against the run even at his weight.

Sammy? Disagree there. If he'd been picked at, say, #20, yeah, maybe you wouldn't call him a bust. But even at our original pick of #9 he'd have been a real disappointment. But for a guy picked at #4? Having his best season be 1047 yards, his second-best season be 982 yards, and his next-best be 593 yards? 28 TDs over 5 years? Yeah, you can legitimately argue that's a bust. Even ignoring the [absolutely awful] tradeup, a guy picked at #4 should produce better than that. In his best year he was 22nd in yards and 49th in receptions? No, he's certainly not a Jamarcus Russell-size bust, but yeah that's a bust.

Great player. Probably won't last that long but I'd certainly love it if it happened and they picked him.

I suppose it's possible. But nothing wrong with not talking to the media. He should probably have made that decision right at the first sentence, but while weird, IMO not a big deal. Don't see any evidence there that he'll be a bad influence on the son. If there is such evidence, that's a problem. I'd need a lot more to go on than that story, though. Weird and quiet with the media's no big problem if that's the extent of it.

That is a bit weird, isn't it?

Two to three starters a year is indeed right about league average, with two being significantly below league average and three being a bit above. And I don't give Whaley 2013, nor should anyone, unless they want to have a discussion on how good of an assistant GM he was. Also, you're wrong about Seantrel Henderson. I was always rooting for him, so I wish he had started last year, but he only played in one game last year, week one. He did sign an one year extension with Houston this last January, so I hope he can make things work. But that's six starters in three drafts. No pro bowls and no core guys. Watkins, Preston Brown, Darby, Miller, Ragland and Lawson, in three years. People go on about how bad the Pats are at drafting. (Which is nonsense, really, for a team that always drafts late they're pretty good.) But their 2014 -2016 classes have a lot more guys still starting. And that includes a lost first rounder from Deflategate.

No, he actually did not. That's not how you judge "outperforming his GM peers." Not even close. But let's go with what you're doing here and focus in on Whaley's drafts. Here they are, leaving EJ out, because he was picked under the Nix regime though Whaley obviously loved him: 2014 1) Sammy Watkins 2) Cyrus Kouandjio 3) Preston Brown 4) Ross Cockrell 5) Cyril Richardson 7) Randell Johnson 7) Seantrel Henderson 2015 2) Ronald Darby 3) John Miller 5) Karlos Williams 6) Tony Steward 6) Nick O'Leary 7) Dezmin Lewis 2016 1) Shaq Lawson 2) Reggie Ragland 3) Adolphus Washington 4) Cardale Jones 5) Jonathan Williams 6) Kolby Listenbee 6) Kevon Seymour Any way you can dream up to call that a successful draft record is more of a comment on your recreational chemicals input than on the players. How many Pro Bowl seasons among these three classes? Give you a hint, it's a four-letter word that starts with "Z" and ends with "ERO." How many guys there are still starting? Maybe six if Miller starts where he went? Two per year, if everything goes perfectly this year? And not a single one a core guy for this or any other team? That's pathetic. This is an absolutely wretched draft record. Whaley did much better at pro personnel pickups but looking at his draft record again here made me a bit nauseous. He isn't an idiot. But he also wasn't a good GM.

I'm with him on Devin White. I think the last thing in the world they want is yet another rookie calling the defensive signals at MLB. IMO if they could keep Edmunds at MLB another year and put White outside while he learns for a year for a possible future switch, the pick would make sense. From what little I can tell, you don't really want White anywhere but MLB. I don't think we pick him. And by the way .... Hamp Cheevers? Awesome football name. Hadn't heard of him before. Interesting to know he was one of our 30 visits.

Everywhere. Everything you've written since the useless necrobump. Here's one: We had several QBs who showed more promise than Tyrod after Kelly. Flutie and Bledsoe. Probably Rob Johnson as well.

Gurley went at #10. Zack Martin at #16. Kuechly at #9. Tyron Smith at #9. They're out there. Not every year but reasonably often. Not sure I see one this year unless Oliver somehow falls.

Leaks happen. So do smokescreens and polite evasions. But leaks do happen. As for how many guys had Edmunds going to the Bills last year ... the Bills didn't have Edmunds going to the Bills last year, as Beane has said many times. They never ran that scenario.

I think it's all about getting good running backs, personally. And winning games. And being effective on offense.

To #3? I doubt it. If they were at #7 or close, then maybe, but the Bills aren't going to give up that much.

Yes, McDermott made the pick. But Reid doesn't have all that great a record of picking QBs. He spent about half his career with Vick and Alex Smith. He's never really been known as a great QB drafter. He's a great QB developer. And there's no particular reason to swoop in on a great QB developer's potential draft pick and draft him instead and likely not develop him as well as Reid himself would have. I'd love to see where the article "makes it clear" that Whaley orchestrated the trade. All I can see is that he was on the phone. And that ain't even close to "orchestrating." Point man and boss are not the same thing.

You didn't link!!!! Wonder why? So, since you didn't link, all I can do is guess that it's the post that ends like this: "Conclusions "Unfortunately, our confidence intervals are too wide to draw many firm conclusions, but it may be worth trying out Matrix Turf at a couple more stadiums to see if its low overall injury rate is sustainable in a larger sample. Even when we zero in on lower leg injuries, it doesn't look meaningfully worse than grass. A-Turf, Momentum Turf, and FieldTurf raise eyebrows, but these differences could be due to chance or improper maintenance rather than issues with the product itself." https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/turf-type-and-nfl-injuries-part-i Is that the one you mean? The one that also says this: "We're looking at these stadium rates through turf-colored glasses, but the rate in any given stadium is a factor of many things. For example, the home team's baseline health and training staff skill could play a role. We have attempted to control for this by only looking at visiting teams. Climate is another possible factor, but it's beyond the scope of this post. A third possible factor is that some teams are more likely than others to injure their opponents. For example, if we had split the NYC stadium between the Giants and Jets, the Giants would have the fifth-lowest overall injury rate, while the Jets would have been in the top half. To investigate this we could control for the injury rate for Team A's opponents when Team A is on the road. However, that is also beyond the scope of this post."