Thurman#1

And yet again, he in no way was terrible those last three weeks. Had an unproductive 14th week, but he was very solid week 15 and downright excellent week 16, and I say that as a person who went back and watched much of those two games - with All-22 - over the last three days or so. He was open a lot, even when he wasn't getting thrown to, and he was making catches when he was thrown to. He had a very good last two weeks and improved a lot over the last seven games as compared to the first nine, which is what should be expected of a second-year guy who misses most of training camp and the off-season. We certainly agree, though, that he still has a lot of improvement necessary if he's going to be a successful pick. It's very true that the whole system had major problems and didn't work as well as it should have. Everyone on offense was less productive than they might have been when surrounded by better players. How much so - especially for each individual person - is a question, but it's clear the offense wasn't working well. That hurt everyone.

Nah. You simply don't know, no matter how much you think you do. That's certainly a legitimate guess you have there. But it is indeed a guess. Some WRs take huge steps at this time in their careers. Eric Moulds is a good example, though there are many more. Zay had more TDs and more yards last year alone than Moulds had in his first two years combined. Then the light came on for Moulds. Will it come on for Zay? Dunno. Nobody does, really.

26 TDs would have put him in the top 12 last year. For a 2nd year guy, not reaching the top 12 in the league is hardly alarming. 3500 yards is more reasonable, but it would still put him above Russell Wilson and Cam Newton at 18th. This team is likely to stress running and run a higher percentage of runs than most teams. I don't think putting cumulative total stats as his goal is going to make sense. Just my feeling.

IMO it's too early to "expect" anything. Too unpredictable. Guess at? Yeah. Hope for? Sure. Predict? Yeah, why not. But "expect"? Things aren't clear enough to expect yet.

It may be a bad pick. But if it is, it won't be because they didn't need him. If he's good, they'll find a way to use him. Rookie contracts are four years long and the guy drafted in Singletary's spot last year earned $936K per year for his four year contract. A good RB at that salary would be very useful for this team. Probably by next year, Gore and Shady will be gone. A good RB at that salary would be very useful for this team, particularly looking into the future. It'll only be a bad pick if he doesn't become a good player. Which is true of all draft picks, really.

Agreed, and strongly.

This is pretty much it. It's nice if you have one guy who can jump and catch a fade, but some shorter guys do that well with body positioning and blocking out. You don't absolutely need even one tall guy, but it doesn't hurt to have guys with a variety of talents and abilities.

You're making up "best player in the league" too. Why don't you settle for what they're really saying about Mayfield ... that he doesn't look like a rookie while the other three do, and that being that good in his first year is really really promising. That he looks much more at home behind center than any of the other rookie QBs. That so far he looks like he's going to be the kind of QB who can take a team to Super Bowls, though it's still early. Me, I agree with what I mostly read about Mayfield. A lot of the Browns Super Bowl talk is about the whole team, though. They've got a terrific lineup in terms of talent, one of the absolute best in the AFC. Man, it drives me nuts how sometimes the "EDIT" feature disappears on me and I can't edit some posts. Above I mistyped "29th" rather than "20th" for the Jets and I can't correct it. Oh, well.

'Cause Mayfield has been terrific, though the Brady comparison is your own. And because they're comparing Darnold + McCown to Rosen + Fitz. Both of those look better to me than Allen + Barkley + Anderson. And probably there's a smidge of it being pretty legit to think that while Allen's running ability absolutely destroys Rosen's or Darnold's that both of those to could be said to have shown more throwing the ball. And that in the long run passing ability trumps running ability at QB. Disagree? Fair enough, but I think it's a pretty reasonable opinion at this point. As for slanting it towards big markets, please. Kansas City is around the 30th biggest market and yet they're ranked number one. And if they cared what New York thought in that way, they wouldn't have ranked them 29th. That's hardly blowing wind up their skirts.

It's not that Rosen is two spots higher. It's that Rosen and the Amish Rifle and Jake Rudock, who I've never heard of till just this instant, are two spots higher than Josh, Matt Barkley and Derek Anderson all put together. Which seems reasonable to me. Fitz is probably one of the two or three best backups in football. Anderson and Barkley not so much. Maybe if he hears about it it might give Josh some motivation. I can't imagine it, myself. He knows the situation. He's got a ton to prove. As do all the young guys from last year and this year, particularly Rosen. I'd imagine Josh is already just about as motivated as he's likely to get.

Good article, though nothing earth-shaking.

Don't know where you're getting this. The pundits and sources like this draft a lot. I've only seen one negative, and it wasn't all that bad.

This. Josh Allen is considered the physical model of what you want in a QB. Allen fits the prototype of what teams want, physically, in a pocket QB, though he ended up having terrific running ability as well. Almost too tall, but instead, right in the bullseye. Tyree is considered too tall. There has never been a QB successful in the NFL at his height. It's considered difficult to put together your mechanics with arms and legs that long, and that has held up over history. Not that that proves what their outcomes will be. But this is how the NFL looks at people. Are you the prototype, or are you a type that has never succeeded.

That's a problem with how it sounds, it doesn't sound so nice, maybe. But it's absolutely correct. They gave up two 4th round picks. And recieved a 3rd rounder in return. If they'd given up one 4th rounder, they'd still have one left. Give up simply means to relinquish or part with. Which we did. It doesn't mean you don't get anything in return. Just means you said bye-bye to 'em. We gave up 112 and 131 and received 96 in return. Put another way, they lost two picks. And gained one back in trade. Any accounting denying they lost two picks is more concerned with spin than correctness. "They lost ONE net pick." They just lost it? Well, maybe someone will find it and returne it. And later, in a separate transaction, "They turned the other 4th into a 3rd"? With what, a magic wand? This always cracks me up, I always picture a circus plate spinner dashing from plate to plate. It wasn't two separate transactions, #112 for nothing, followed later by #131 for #96. They received one pick by giving up two.

No, it's not the only way to handle it. Plenty of teams take a ton of picks. Cincy had 11 last year, Denver had 10, Green Bay had 11, and I'm only up to the Gs, in one draft. That wasn't "what those 4th rounders were there for." They were there to be maximized. Could've been used, or traded for more picks, or whatever. You don't have to get all that lucky to do well with a later pick. Milano was a 5th. Taron Johnson too. Fourths especially have a pretty reasonable record of producing contributors. The more picks the better, but if you have a better use for them, that's OK too. So far, this regime has been excellent at the draft, so I'm willing to believe them that this stands a decent chance of being a very good use of the picks.

I agree. Avoiding the quick fixes and haven't mortgaged the future. Still a lot to prove, but they look good. A far better big-picture sense of how to go about this than any regime since the '90s..

No.

No, I don't think it's irrelevant. To me, going back and analyzing why things happened helps me understand life better. Football too. People said that based on last year, Beane was a guy who loved to trade up and was willing to give up a lot of value. I thought - and posted - that last year had been a special year, with the purpose of trading up for a QB and a year when they'd put together a ton of draft capital to do it. Now, this year looks just like what I expected Beane to look like in the long term ... chintzy about giving away earlyish and valuable picks. I love it. It's the smart play.

You may not be much happier than I am. Loved it!!!!!!! Great post. Thanks. Is Ferguson really that good? Hadn't looked too far beyond the first. I'll root for that, though I also wouldn't mind Risner, Cody Ford or a few others.

Yeah? Way I see it is: #30 is 620 points and #40 is 500 points. That's 120 points. 120 points is a very low third rounder, and you generally have to give 10% or 20% extra to move up. In any case, the story on this draft seems to be that there were only a few true first rounders, somewhere in the general neighborhood of 15 guys, but then there are a ton of true second round talents, probably right out through the 4th round. Why give up one a second round talent (in the third or fourth round) to move up from a second round talent at #40 to a second round talent at #30? This ain't the year to do it, IMO. They've got a lot more than eight good young guys who would fit what they do and fill spaces that need filling.

Yessir.

Who could ever have figured that you would need odds far better than one-to-one to make this an attractive bet? Oh, wait, me and most people who posted. Nearly everyone ... except one guy.

Probably will cost a 3rd, if they want to do it, unless they maybe switch 2nds or something with someone. I don't give up a 3rd, myself. You get starting caliber guys through the 3rd or 4th this year.

In this case, smart enough to just let the right guy fall to him. Nice job!!!!!!!!!

Fan-friggin'-tastic. How often do you get a bargain at #9? Him being played at nose meant he ended up falling to us. Thanks Houston's coaches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!