Bad news for the Bills

[Bill from NYC]

Re: the Phins, I've seen too much of Parcells' work to think they won't improve.

 

Same here, and I cannot understand how anyone could doubt his ability to win. That said, your op omits the injury factor, especially wrt the patsies.

 

A win against NE this season wouldn't surprise me if the Peters situation is worked out. If not, the season is already all but over.

[dhg]

Re: the Phins, I've seen too much of Parcells' work to think they won't improve. He took over a 2-14 Pats team and made them a playoff team in short order, took over a 1-15 Jets team and took them to 9-7 immediately, and took over a Dallas team that had three straight years of double digit losses and made them 10-6. And of course there are the Giants, who were both horrible and boring throught my childhood in the 1970s. The record is there for all to see, and I for one can't discount it.

 

 

But Parcells was the coach of those teams.

[1billsfan]

The Jets aren't going to the Super Bowl, and the Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs, but they will both undoubtedly improve. Favre is clearly a huge upgrade for a team that made the playoffs two years ago (and three of the previous five before that), and Pennington -- whatever his flaws -- is a huge upgrade for the Dolphins (as is the addition of Parcells, obviously). The Bills are now looking at 2-2 against the Jets and Phins (and recall that the Bills struggled badly against them last year in Miami) plus 0-2 against the Pats. (Before all of this, I was hoping for 3-1 against the Jets and Phins.) That puts them at 2-4 in the division, which means they have to go 8-2 against the rest of the league to make the playoffs. It's not impossible given that they're playing a bad NFC West and a relatively down AFC West (although a game in Denver is probably going to be a loss, as is the game at home against SD), but it'll be tough. For the playoffs, those victories over NFC teams will matter less, of course.

 

 

The happy police here at TSW will get you. You must smile and speak nothing but happy thoughts about the Buffalo Bills and bad thoughts about any team the isn't the Buffalo Bills. If you do not follow this policy you will be considered a hostile and your fan membership card will be under review, and could in fact be revoked. I'm probably already in trouble for warning you.

[Whites Bay]

Same here, and I cannot understand how anyone could doubt his ability to win. That said, your op omits the injury factor, especially wrt the patsies.

 

A win against NE this season wouldn't surprise me if the Peters situation is worked out. If not, the season is already all but over.

 

I echo your caution about the injury bug, Bill. The Peters situation....not so much. But I can assure you that I'm keeping my rose-colored glasses and chest-thumping in the office to a minimum this year. I believe I read we had a league-high 18 players on IR last year. Talk about the wrong stat with which to lead the league. A couple of question/observations regarding the Jets and Dolphins:

 

1) If we could lead the league in injuries last year, what's to say it won't be the Jets and Dolphins? I guess my point is...relax. No one has any idea. I'm holding my breath, and praying the turf on the opposing sideline gets a lot more wear-and-tear from "the cart" this year.

 

2) Question. What is the bigger impact for the hapless Dolphins - the addition of Pennington, or the loss of Taylor? The buzz is all about Pennington, but - sheesh - Taylor was a Pro Bowler several times over. Pennington predictably couldn't throw more than 30 yards....I don't mean with accuracy, I mean he physically couldn't heave the rock that far, period.

 

3) Farve to NYJ may not be as bad as Namath to San Francisco, but it will more likely be along the lines of Montana to Kansas City. A good addition? Absolutely. The be-all and end-all? Not at 38-going-on-39. I can tell you that 39 is getting REALLY small in MY rearview mirror, and there's a lot of truth to the old line "And you know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill". Favre's a good addition to the NYJ, but there are going to be a lot of teams that want to roll out the welcome mat. He's going to get hit a lot, and hit hard. And he's going to screw up. The Jets this year are not the Packers last year. You want rose-colored glasses? Go to a Jets fan board.

[Paup 1995MVP]

The Jets aren't going to the Super Bowl, and the Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs, but they will both undoubtedly improve. Favre is clearly a huge upgrade for a team that made the playoffs two years ago (and three of the previous five before that), and Pennington -- whatever his flaws -- is a huge upgrade for the Dolphins (as is the addition of Parcells, obviously). The Bills are now looking at 2-2 against the Jets and Phins (and recall that the Bills struggled badly against them last year in Miami) plus 0-2 against the Pats. (Before all of this, I was hoping for 3-1 against the Jets and Phins.) That puts them at 2-4 in the division, which means they have to go 8-2 against the rest of the league to make the playoffs. It's not impossible given that they're playing a bad NFC West and a relatively down AFC West (although a game in Denver is probably going to be a loss, as is the game at home against SD), but it'll be tough. For the playoffs, those victories over NFC teams will matter less, of course.

 

Pennington has the worst arm of any NFL quarterback. I do not see him as an upgrade to Cleo Lemon. The talent level on the Dolphins is still very low. If Edwards plays well, the Bills are a much better team than either the Fish or the Jets. If we are really worried about the Jets or Dolphins than we have not improved at all this offseason. I love our defense if Stroud stays healthy.

[KRT88]

The Jets aren't going to the Super Bowl, and the Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs, but they will both undoubtedly improve. Favre is clearly a huge upgrade for a team that made the playoffs two years ago (and three of the previous five before that), and Pennington -- whatever his flaws -- is a huge upgrade for the Dolphins (as is the addition of Parcells, obviously). The Bills are now looking at 2-2 against the Jets and Phins (and recall that the Bills struggled badly against them last year in Miami) plus 0-2 against the Pats. (Before all of this, I was hoping for 3-1 against the Jets and Phins.) That puts them at 2-4 in the division, which means they have to go 8-2 against the rest of the league to make the playoffs. It's not impossible given that they're playing a bad NFC West and a relatively down AFC West (although a game in Denver is probably going to be a loss, as is the game at home against SD), but it'll be tough. For the playoffs, those victories over NFC teams will matter less, of course.

 

 

does this really matter? Football is all about execution and if we can execute on offense better than last year, convert a few third downs, defensively get off the field on third down then we control the game. going 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 against these guys means nothing if we can't go 9-5 against the rest of the schedule and going 1-1 against NE would go a long way in helping the Bills push for the playoffs.

 

One thing about Chad going to Miami. Now the Dolphins will know more about the jets offensive system.

[bisonbrigade]

Bad news for the Jets, Phish, and Pats. Marcus Stroud, Mitchell, Poz, Hardy, McKelvin, Chris Ellis, Spenser Johnson.

[todd]

He was coaching. And the Phins have a colossal lack of talent at nearly every position, including QB. Pennington isn't that good. It tells you something about a team when Pennington is an upgrade at QB. Not to mention the stability factor - these players are operating under a completely new series of coaches, and stability is key in the NFL.

 

Re: the Phins, I've seen too much of Parcells' work to think they won't improve. He took over a 2-14 Pats team and made them a playoff team in short order, took over a 1-15 Jets team and took them to 9-7 immediately, and took over a Dallas team that had three straight years of double digit losses and made them 10-6. And of course there are the Giants, who were both horrible and boring throught my childhood in the 1970s. The record is there for all to see, and I for one can't discount it.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Was anyone afraid of facing Pennington with the Jets this season?

 

Didn't think so.

 

With respect to Miami in general, I fully expect a continuation of the Bill Parcells Law of Diminishing Returns. Yes, they'll be better, but coming from 1-15 how can they not be?

 

Always happy to see a reference to the BPLoDR.. which actually sounds like something Bill would do after a spicy Cuban meal, doesn't it?

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

The happy police here at TSW will get you. You must smile and speak nothing but happy thoughts about the Buffalo Bills and bad thoughts about any team the isn't the Buffalo Bills. If you do not follow this policy you will be considered a hostile and your fan membership card will be under review, and could in fact be revoked. I'm probably already in trouble for warning you.

 

 

 

The only thing worse than obsessive negativity is obsessive negativity combined with a victimization complex...

 

Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but no one is entitled to be beyond criticism.

[FLFan]

Neither new QB in the East really scares me. Favre is an upgrade for Jets but can not win games on his own. It will take some time, perhaps even the first half of the season, before Favre will even be comfortable with the offense and players. I think they will be competitive, but there is no reason to believe as far as I am concerned that Favre suddenly makes the Jets the team to beat. Remember - Favre has a losing record in his creer against the AFC East, including Buffalo. I predict two comeptitive games, with Buffalo winning at least 1.

 

Chad Pennington is even less scarey. I hope he starts for the Dolphins. He is acurate at short distances, but slow and relatively weak armed. He has not proven to be hard to beat and he is on a team rebuilding lines, new offense, etc. Will not matter. 2 wins for the Bills.

 

As for Parcels, last I looked he was not the coach of the Dolphins. What he has done as a coach has little importance to this discussion. He is now front office, not responsible for player development, motivation, and day to day coaching. His impact, if any, in his new role will take years to discern.

 

I think the bills go at least 3 and 3 in the East, and perhaps 4 and 2 sneaking out a close win over either the Jets in NY or NE in Buffalo.

[Lurker]

It's much more fun to hang out with someone hopeful of a great season than someone who will just say I told you so when something goes wrong.

So, you've got two-thirds of TSW on ignore too?

[Justice]

The Jets aren't going to the Super Bowl, and the Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs, but they will both undoubtedly improve. Favre is clearly a huge upgrade for a team that made the playoffs two years ago (and three of the previous five before that), and Pennington -- whatever his flaws -- is a huge upgrade for the Dolphins (as is the addition of Parcells, obviously). The Bills are now looking at 2-2 against the Jets and Phins (and recall that the Bills struggled badly against them last year in Miami) plus 0-2 against the Pats. (Before all of this, I was hoping for 3-1 against the Jets and Phins.) That puts them at 2-4 in the division, which means they have to go 8-2 against the rest of the league to make the playoffs. It's not impossible given that they're playing a bad NFC West and a relatively down AFC West (although a game in Denver is probably going to be a loss, as is the game at home against SD), but it'll be tough. For the playoffs, those victories over NFC teams will matter less, of course.

 

I'm not too worried. The Bills are the only team in the AFC East that has a young up and coming QB getting substantial playing time and game experience. The Bills will dominate the east in the near future!

[VOR]

With the report from Jay Glazer (as per K-9) that the Packers had to keep Favre on a short leash last off-season WRT conditioning (which he not only hasn't done; he hasn't done ANY conditioning according to his PC), not to mention the lack of time to learn the offense and get comfortable with his teammates, I don't think he'll be that effective in Jersey. The Jets, despite their mega-millions spent in FA, are closer to the 2005-2006 Packers than the 2007 version. And the Bills have a winning record against Favre. I'd say a split at least, if not a sweep by the Bills again, although it won't be easy.

 

As for the Fins, IMHO Pennington's addition makes them worse. For starters, they have no WR's, not even comparable to what the Jets had, and the only ones worth mentioning are either just a fly-pattern guy (Ginn) or a guy who's been demoted to 2nd team (Wilford). The bigger problem though is he cannot challenge a defense deep, which means teams will stack the box, which will in turn shut-down their running game.

 

Another added bonus is that with Pennington knowing the Jets' playbook and the Fins and Jets meeting in the 1st regular season game, the Fins could use that knowledge to their advantage and defeat the Jets, helping-out the Bills. The only downside is we'll have to hear about how great the Fins will be...for about a week.

 

And in both cases, the teams will still need to look for their QB of the future. Clemens ain't it for the Jets and neither is Beck for the Fins. Henne could be it for the Fins, but that remains to be seen.

[colin]

i'm w the homie ramius.

 

pennington on miami = d up in the box. we have way way more beef up front now, we'll get some licks on him and force him to lob some passes which will get picked off badly.

 

favre will make us nervous with some nifty plays, but then he will make 3 times as many horrible bone head moves and put the ball up for grabs. the jests can barely run anyhow, so we'll be in pass pickoff mode the whole time.

 

and don't forget, our McCorners are serious breakaway return threats. we'll be scoring on D at a good clip, particularly within the afc east.

[dave mcbride]

Pennington has the worst arm of any NFL quarterback. I do not see him as an upgrade to Cleo Lemon. The talent level on the Dolphins is still very low. If Edwards plays well, the Bills are a much better team than either the Fish or the Jets. If we are really worried about the Jets or Dolphins than we have not improved at all this offseason. I love our defense if Stroud stays healthy.

Like I said, he has flaws, but he played very well in Rich last year (32-39 for 291 yards) and if not for a bungled FG at the end of the first half, the Jets may well have won the game. He *is* very accurate, and I suspect that the Phins will have a solid running game with Williams (who looks better than decent, according to all reports) and Brown. I don't see them winning 8, but I also see them winning at least 4, and probably more.

 

Re: Favre, he's a really good player still. He's going to make the Jets a better team.

[Cornerville]

Here is something that we have not factored in: The last game at home vs the Pats*, say the Pats have the division wrapped up (hopefully not)...it is NOT impossible to think the Bills might be able to steal that game.

 

Bottom line: Minimum 3-3 in the division, which leaves us to go 6-4, 7-3 out of conference and hope we can sneak in with 9 wins or 10 wins should do the trick.

 

I really wish the Bills played the Jets right away, I know it will take them some time to develop chemistry.

[dave mcbride]

Here is something that we have not factored in: The last game at home vs the Pats*, say the Pats have the division wrapped up (hopefully not)...it is NOT impossible to think the Bills might be able to steal that game.

 

Bottom line: Minimum 3-3 in the division, which leaves us to go 6-4, 7-3 out of conference and hope we can sneak in with 9 wins or 10 wins should do the trick.

 

I really wish the Bills played the Jets right away, I know it will take them some time to develop chemistry.

The last times the Bills played the Pats in the final game of the season:

 

December 28, 2003: Patriots 31-0 (Pats have home field wrapped up already)

 

I'll also throw in this gem:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251211002

[PromoTheRobot]

It's amazing how people instantly assume any castoff QB is suddenly the second coming of Johnny Unitas. Favre I'll grant you is an improvement, although I'm skeptical how much an improvement. Certainly no Super Bowl. But Pennington was a dud in NY. Why all of a sudden does he qualify for "major upgrade" status? I seem to recall the last time the Fins made a "major upgrade" at QB: Daunte Culpepper. How did that work out?

 

PTR

[dave mcbride]

It's amazing how people instantly assume any castoff QB is suddenly the second coming of Johnny Unitas. Favre I'll grant you is an improvement, although I'm skeptical how much an improvement. Certainly no Super Bowl. But Pennington was a dud in NY. Why all of a sudden does he qualify for "major upgrade" status? I seem to recall the last time the Fins made a "major upgrade" at QB: Daunte Culpepper. How did that work out?

 

PTR

Did you see the Dolphins' QBs last year? For all his weaknesses, Pennington is a far better player than any of them.