The deciding factor in picking the #1 QB

[Mickey]

There has been a lot of talk about JP's fast feet and about who does and doesn't like him in the locker room and all that. I don't think those factors are what is going to decide who starts for us this year. I think the critical factor is going to be pretty simple: Accuracy.

 

 

 

Accuracy. That is the main thing. I saw JP totally miss open guys on short routes too many times, especially on third down. Above all else, an NFL QB has to be accurate. His completion percentage was 49%. As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%. I am convinced that JP's completion percentage, his lack of accuracy, is why Dick and Marv are not sold on him and why they brought in Nall and promised him a legit shot at the starter's job. It doesn't matter what problem we have on the line, Holcomb threw behind the same line as JP did. I don't think Marv or Dick really care whether or not JP can make some plays occasionally with his feet. I don't think they give a hoot whether this or that vet likes JP or hates him.

 

What they want is a QB who delivers the ball to an open man accurately. Yeah, the blocking is likely to be bad. There might not be as many opportunities to make a play as we would like as we try and rebuild this offense. However, when there is time to throw and there is an open man, the QB has to find him and hit him. We can't afford to many unforced errors from the QB. When they have a chance to get the ball to an open guy, they can't sail it over their heads or throw it into the dirt.

 

If JP can show himself to be accurate, he will start. If Nall or Holcomb show better accuracy, JP will not start. 49%????? That better have been a result of his lack of experience and not a true indicator of his ultimate abilities. Given his lack of playing time in year one, last year was his rookie campaign. Class is over for JP.

He has no more leeway.

 

I think Nall knows this is the best chance he will ever have at winning a starting job and I expect him to give it all he has. Holcomb has to know that this is his last hurrah as a starter. I think he will make the most of the opportunity as well.

 

Should be an interesting camp.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Isn't it a little funny though, to say, "class is over" for JP? Why? Was class over for Drew Brees after two substandard years that saw him shuffling between the field and the bench?

 

And assuming the hypothetical of Nall winning the job, does it count as 'class time' for him? What if he falters? What if he can't avoid the sack? Will we be screaming for a more mobile QB?

 

We've seen far too little of Nall or Losman yet to make any judgements or predictions, IMO. Losman improved his accuracy in stint #2 and that's encouraging to me.

[BUFFALOTONE]

I think JP will be the guy this year regardless. Nall was brought in to push JP and Holcomb is another body, albiet he does not have the arm strength to play in the AFC East. I think this is partly why the Jets passed on Leinart, he didnt have the arm strength. Anyway, JP does have the tools its all about getting the right people around him. If he doesnt get the job done then I believe they will cut ties and look elsewhere.

 

From what we used to see from STL old offensive scheme it was anything but boring. We will air it out alot more especially with the fast stable of receivers that we have. I think JP has the only live arm in the bunch to do this.

 

Also I like his ability to get out of the pocket especially with the way our OL played. Where DB would have lossed 7 yards JP would gain 5 I like that number alot better.

[Ramius]

There has been a lot of talk about JP's fast feet and about who does and doesn't like him in the locker room and all that.  I don't think those factors are what is going to decide who starts for us this year.  I think the critical factor is going to be pretty simple:  Accuracy.

Accuracy.  That is the main thing.  I saw JP totally miss open guys on short routes too many times, especially on third down.  Above all else, an NFL QB has to be accurate.  His completion percentage was 49%.  As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%.  I am convinced that JP's completion percentage, his lack of accuracy, is why Dick and Marv are not sold on him and why they brought in Nall and promised him a legit shot at the starter's job.  It doesn't matter what problem we have on the line, Holcomb threw behind the same line as JP did.  I don't think Marv or Dick really care whether or not JP can make some plays occasionally with his feet.  I don't think they give a hoot whether this or that vet likes JP or hates him.

 

What they want is a QB who delivers the ball to an open man accurately.  Yeah, the blocking is likely to be bad.  There might not be as many opportunities to make a play as we would like as we try and rebuild this offense.  However, when there is time to throw and there is an open man, the QB has to find him and hit him.  We can't afford to many unforced errors from the QB.  When they have a chance to get the ball to an open guy, they can't sail it over their heads or throw it into the dirt.

 

If JP can show himself to be accurate, he will start.  If Nall or Holcomb show better accuracy, JP will not start.  49%?????  That better have been a result of his lack of experience and not a true indicator of his ultimate abilities.  Given his lack of playing time in year one, last year was his rookie campaign.  Class is over for JP. 

He has no more leeway. 

 

I think Nall knows this is the best chance he will ever have at winning a starting job and I expect him to give it all he has.  Holcomb has to know that this is his last hurrah as a starter.  I think he will make the most of the opportunity as well.

 

Should be an interesting camp.

704368[/snapback]

 

Thats fine, as long as you are happy with holcomb completing a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10. at least his % will be higher.

 

Holcomb completes so many passes because 80% of his passes do not travel more than 5 yards. Anyone who knows what the word football means will tell you that shorter passes = higher completion %. Sure JP needs to improve drastically. But to suggest that holcombs 67% is "great" is a huge stretch.

[Kelly the Dog]

There has been a lot of talk about JP's fast feet and about who does and doesn't like him in the locker room and all that.  I don't think those factors are what is going to decide who starts for us this year.  I think the critical factor is going to be pretty simple:  Accuracy.

Accuracy.  That is the main thing.  I saw JP totally miss open guys on short routes too many times, especially on third down.  Above all else, an NFL QB has to be accurate.  His completion percentage was 49%.  As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%.  I am convinced that JP's completion percentage, his lack of accuracy, is why Dick and Marv are not sold on him and why they brought in Nall and promised him a legit shot at the starter's job.  It doesn't matter what problem we have on the line, Holcomb threw behind the same line as JP did.  I don't think Marv or Dick really care whether or not JP can make some plays occasionally with his feet.  I don't think they give a hoot whether this or that vet likes JP or hates him.

 

What they want is a QB who delivers the ball to an open man accurately.  Yeah, the blocking is likely to be bad.  There might not be as many opportunities to make a play as we would like as we try and rebuild this offense.  However, when there is time to throw and there is an open man, the QB has to find him and hit him.  We can't afford to many unforced errors from the QB.  When they have a chance to get the ball to an open guy, they can't sail it over their heads or throw it into the dirt.

 

If JP can show himself to be accurate, he will start.  If Nall or Holcomb show better accuracy, JP will not start.  49%?????  That better have been a result of his lack of experience and not a true indicator of his ultimate abilities.  Given his lack of playing time in year one, last year was his rookie campaign.  Class is over for JP. 

He has no more leeway. 

 

I think Nall knows this is the best chance he will ever have at winning a starting job and I expect him to give it all he has.  Holcomb has to know that this is his last hurrah as a starter.  I think he will make the most of the opportunity as well.

 

Should be an interesting camp.

704368[/snapback]

I agree with this in only one respect. That accuracy is important. You may be right and I may be wrong but here is how I see the accuracy problem.

 

First, Losman isn't known for being an inaccurate passer. He wasn't in college. His % may not be right at the top but that is because he doesn't go the safe route, he tries to make a play on 3rd down, he tries to go downfield. The accuracy problems last year, IMO, were about 10% due to his talent deficiencies, 40% due to the situations he was put in and 40% due to the in-over-his-head panic factor. And the last one may be under-estimated.

 

The coaching and play-calling put him in terrible situations. The blocking and penalties put him in terrible down and distance. He was running for his life. he was put in seven step drops and asked to survey the field with WRs who couldnt get open. They asked him to do too much and he wasn't experienced enough or mature enough as a QB (after only starting two years in college on a ragtag team in a floundering program). He just wasn't ready for doing what they were asking him to do regardless of how many hours he spent studying film with Sam Wyche. That led to him being nervous, jumpy, skittish and with a ton of pressure on him. And it showed. That is where almost all of the inaccuracy came from, IMO. And the game plans changed drastically when Holcomb was put in.

 

He needs to mature as a quarterback. He needs to calm down his emotions. He needs experience in the games for the game to slow down for him. Last year, he would sometimes miss guys on 10 yard outs by three yards. That is not an inaccurate quarterback, that is a quarterback that is nervous and shell shocked and unable to temper his adrenaline.

 

I expect him to be much more calm because he is a year older, he doesn't have the huge pressure on him right off the bat (that will come in the games). He is not an inaccurate passer. And he really won't have that problem with accuracy in practice anyway because the heat of the rush and the pressure of the game doesn't exist.

 

That said, Holcomb is probably still a more accurate passer to some degree. That is what he is good at. That is why he is in this league. But the (hopefully) marginal difference in certain passes that Holcomb is more accurate in with be outweighed by Losman's higher accuracy on the long ball, his running and scrambling ability, his ball handling and his youth and arm strength.

 

And I'll bet anyone here $100 that barring injury he starts opening day.

[CosmicBills]

And I'll bet anyone here $100 that barring injury he starts opening day.

704383[/snapback]

 

Absolutley, 100 percent true.

 

It's not a real "competition" at QB. Nall is not a starter, never will be -- if he had talent, he would be the heir apparent for Farve, not Rogers. And Holcomb's best days are behind him. It's JP or bust this season. Everyone at OBD knows it.

[PromoTheRobot]

That's a funny post, since Chris Brown has been saying in his Bills Blog that Nall has been the odd man out in the OTA's and that Losman has been tremendous. But you must have some inside scoop that even Chris Brown doesn't have, so I defer to your post.

 

PTR

[RuntheDamnBall]

Post of the year, Kelly. I really do agree that a lot of JP's problems last year were due to his NOT being put into a position to succeed. Mularkey and co. were literally asking JP to be the savior by virtue of their choices of plays and schemes. The remarks about a young QB being able to succeed and following Roethlisberger's model were made with complete ignorance of how that model worked, via:

1) Limited opportunities for the QB, with high-success rates, and

2) A heavy dependency on a strong, established running game

 

Mularkey established neither of these with JP under center. Then, when KH got put in, these ideas started to creep into the game plan for some reason (though due to OL deficiencies and the rock lodged in Mularkey's brain, it didn't reach full success as we all know -- fake QB sneak is all you need to conjure up here).

 

If anyone here thinks the playbook didn't change for Holcomb, they're kidding themselves. KH would have gotten murdered trying to execute the same game plan. He nearly did as it was.

[Mickey]

Thats fine, as long as you are happy with holcomb completing a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10. at least his % will be higher.

 

Holcomb completes so many passes because 80% of his passes do not travel more than 5 yards. Anyone who knows what the word football means will tell you that shorter passes = higher completion %. Sure JP needs to improve drastically. But to suggest that holcombs 67% is "great" is a huge stretch.

704378[/snapback]

What I said: "As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%. "

 

What you heard: "...Holcomb's 67% is great".

 

ineffective=great????

 

The point I was making is that 49% is indescribably bad and that Holcomb, as bad as he was, wasn't that bad.

 

Not all JP's incompletions were long bombs, a lot were 7 yard button hooks or outs on third and 6. Holcomb's avg. yards per attempt was 6.5, JP's, 5.8. Kelly had 14 plays over 20 yards and 3 over 40. JP had 15 over 20 and 6 over 40. The average per completion was 9.7 and 11.8 so JP was a little higher but in the end, he was not as effective as Holcomb but the bottom line is that neither player deserved to be a starter in this league.

 

All those numbers tell you is that you had a little better chance of moving the ball forward when Holcomb dropped back to pass than when JP did. JP isn't going to be a QB on any team throwing at a 49% clip. As bad as Holcomb is, he was better than JP last year if only barely.

 

If JP doesn't improve his accuracy and if Nall is more accurate, JP sits. Not really a radical notion. I think JP's problems are not his attitude, his personality, any of that stuff. I think his problem is accuracy. He hasn't hit his targets long or short. Dick and Marv are not going to care about JP's credentials. If the other guys don't really show themselves to be markedly better, JP will get the benefit of the doubt and be the default starter with a quick hook waiting if he falters.

[Mickey]

I agree with this in only one respect. That accuracy is important. You may be right and I may be wrong but here is how I see the accuracy problem.

 

First, Losman isn't known for being an inaccurate passer. He wasn't in college. His % may not be right at the top but that is because he doesn't go the safe route, he tries to make a play on 3rd down, he tries to go downfield. The accuracy problems last year, IMO, were about 10% due to his talent deficiencies, 40% due to the situations he was put in and 40% due to the in-over-his-head panic factor. And the last one may be under-estimated.

 

The coaching and play-calling put him in terrible situations. The blocking and penalties put him in terrible down and distance. He was running for his life. he was put in seven step drops and asked to survey the field with WRs who couldnt get open. They asked him to do too much and he wasn't experienced enough or mature enough as a QB (after only starting two years in college on a ragtag team in a floundering program). He just wasn't ready for doing what they were asking him to do regardless of how many hours he spent studying film with Sam Wyche. That led to him being nervous, jumpy, skittish and with a ton of pressure on him. And it showed. That is where almost all of the inaccuracy came from, IMO. And the game plans changed drastically when Holcomb was put in.

 

He needs to mature as a quarterback. He needs to calm down his emotions. He needs experience in the games for the game to slow down for him. Last year, he would sometimes miss guys on 10 yard outs by three yards. That is not an inaccurate quarterback, that is a quarterback that is nervous and shell shocked and unable to temper his adrenaline.

 

I expect him to be much more calm because he is a year older, he doesn't have the huge pressure on him right off the bat (that will come in the games). He is not an inaccurate passer. And he really won't have that problem with accuracy in practice anyway because the heat of the rush and the pressure of the game doesn't exist.

 

That said, Holcomb is probably still a more accurate passer to some degree. That is what he is good at. That is why he is in this league. But the (hopefully) marginal difference in certain passes that Holcomb is more accurate in with be outweighed by Losman's higher accuracy on the long ball, his running and scrambling ability, his ball handling and his youth and arm strength.

 

And I'll bet anyone here $100 that barring injury he starts opening day.

704383[/snapback]

I totally agree on the idea that he is still young and I brought that up in my post giving him the benefit of the doubt that the 49% was not a true indication of his abilities and pointing out that it was essentially his rookie year.

 

All that other stuff, about the lousy coaches, plays, situations, OL, etc. I agree, that was a problem last year but you know what, Kelly Holcomb played behind the same line, with the same coaches, same bad situations and the same bad plays. What worries me are not the incompletions he threw while running for his life on third and 12, trying to hit Evans long. What worries me are the roll outs we tried so often to get him away from pressure where he threw the ball over the head of Moulds or whoever on a 5 yard out pattern. I saw that a lot.

 

I am absolutely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as to what happened last year. Not this year though. If he is still sailing them over people's heads or tossing them in the dirt in pre-season this year and Nall or Holcomb aren't, he should sit, despite his arm strength, foot speed, draft position and all that.

 

I think the job is his to lose and that if he is not clearly out performed in camp he will start but only by default and there will be a quick hook. My hope is that he plays up to his potential in camp, clearly wipes the floor with Nall and Holcomb and emerges as the undisputed stater opening day. That will happen....if he improves his accuracy.

[Mickey]

That's a funny post, since Chris Brown has been saying in his Bills Blog that Nall has been the odd man out in the OTA's and that Losman has been tremendous.  But you must have some inside scoop that even Chris Brown doesn't have, so I defer to your post.

 

PTR

704391[/snapback]

Never said that Nall was outplaying anyone, nor did I intend to make any prediction as to who the starter will be. Just that if JP is still throwing them at a 49% clip and either Holcomb or Nall does markedly better, he will sit. Do you disagree that if JP is sailing them over people's heads in preseason and Nall isn't that JP will not start?

 

I think that the number one thing JP needs to work on is accuracy and if he doesn't, he could lose the job, even to a nobody like Nall or a neverwas like Holcomb.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Mick, JP did improve his accuracy second time around (look at the games 9-16 splits) and was only pulled when he failed against NE (who wouldn't?). By comparison, KH enjoyed a run starting at home against weaker opponents. He also didn't wow anybody in that last game.

 

Yes, same line for the most part. Not same play calls.

 

I think you're right, to an extent. JP needs to be more accurate this year. But I'll settle for the 55% he was doing second half, if he can make big plays, over Holcomb's 67% with few big plays. And I refuse to believe JP's inaccuracy was a result of anything other than being put in a bad situation. KH can make the most of a bad situation better than JP, by virtue of his experience, but we all know we want to strive for good situations. KH puts a cap on those for obvious reasons. If they are even close in camp, close enough that the decision wouldn't irk all the reasonable vets, it's JP.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

JP will be starting. Nall has looked like crap and Holcomb has no upside.

[Kelly the Dog]

All that other stuff, about the lousy coaches, plays, situations, OL, etc.  I agree, that was a problem last year but you know what, Kelly Holcomb played behind the same line, with the same coaches, same bad situations and the same bad plays.  What worries me are not the incompletions he threw while running for his life on third and 12, trying to hit Evans long.  What worries me are the roll outs we tried so often to get him away from pressure where he threw the ball over the head of Moulds or whoever on a 5 yard out pattern.  I saw that a lot.

 

I am absolutely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as to what happened last year.  Not this year though.  If he is still sailing them over people's heads or tossing them in the dirt in pre-season this year and Nall or Holcomb aren't, he should sit, despite his arm strength, foot speed, draft position and all that. 

 

I think the job is his to lose and that if he is not clearly out performed in camp he will start but only by default and there will be a quick hook.  My hope is that he plays up to his potential in camp, clearly wipes the floor with Nall and Holcomb and emerges as the undisputed stater opening day.  That will happen....if he improves his accuracy.

704411[/snapback]

I understand your point, and he definitely needs to be more accurate. Only time will time. This is where we differ though. I absolutely don't believe Losman played with the same bad situations and the same bad plays. In fact, I saw just the opposite.

 

When Losman was in. Game one, series one, play one, he dropped back to pass deep in the pocket. They started with him throwing like that and started every game like that. He had deep drops and he was to throw all over the field. They did that against Tampa and against Atlanta and against New Orleans. As soon as Holcomb came in, they completely changed the philosophy. Because, well, they had to. They immediately gave him three step drops. It wasn't HIS decision because of his reads to throw quick slants to Moulds. It's not a QB's choice to take a 3 or 5 or 7 step drop. Those are the play calls. They instantly went to a safe offense when Holcomb was in, only rarely asking him to drop 7 and survey the field. And that was only after he had done so many short drops and quick throws that it was open for him to do that.

 

It was unconscionable for Mularkey and Clements to not have Losman throw quick easy swings passes and WR screens and a LOT of roll outs to the TE and called dump offs to get his confidence up and to get manageable down and distance. Just plain criminal. They fell in love with his arm. They thought he could do it because he put the time in and knew the offense because of Wyche. Wyche thought he was ready (and made a huge mistake). They saw other teams trying to stop Willis and load up the LOS and make "the rookie" beat them with his arm, and they said to themselves, Go ahead, we're not going to do what you expect us to, this kid is going to throw all over the field. And it was a disaster.

[Mickey]

I think JP will be the guy this year regardless. Nall was brought in to push JP and Holcomb is another body, albiet he does not have the arm strength to play in the AFC East. I think this is partly why the Jets passed on Leinart, he didnt have the arm strength. Anyway, JP does have the tools its all about getting the right people around him. If he doesnt get the job done then I believe they will cut ties and look elsewhere.

 

From what we used to see from STL old offensive scheme it was anything but boring.  We will air it out alot more especially with the fast stable of receivers that we have. I think JP has the only live arm in the bunch to do this.

 

Also I like his ability to get out of the pocket especially with the way our OL played. Where DB would have lossed 7 yards JP would gain 5 I like that number alot better.

704376[/snapback]

I agree, he has good legs and great arm strength but you know, so did, *gulp* RJ. It won't matter if he can't deliver the ball on target.

 

Holcomb had 230 attempts and was sacked 17 times, JP had 228 attempts and was sacked 26 times. JP did have 154 yards rushing compared to 11 for lead foot Holcomb. It seems like Holcomb got rid of the ball more and completed more while JP took the sack trying to make a play that wasn't there. That is precisely why so many wanted to get rid of Drew. He held on to the ball trying to make a play resulting in disaster rather than just getting rid of it out of bounds or on a dump off so that we kept field position and let our defense win the game. Funny, Holcomb did what everyone said Drew needed to do. Problem was, our defense collapsed last year so throwing it away to avoid a sack or tossing a dump off way short of the first down wasn't enough this year. Without a defense, we needed a QB to actually win the game as opposed to simply avoid losing it.

[HurlyBurly51]

  I think the critical factor is going to be pretty simple:  Accuracy.

 

I think Nall knows this is the best chance he will ever have at winning a starting job and I expect him to give it all he has. 

704368[/snapback]

 

According to camp observers, it is Nall who has the biggest hill to climb, as the only thing consistent re: his accuracy is how inaccurate he's been.

[Mark VI]

I still think Losman will be the starter this season and increase his accuracy.

 

Anybody can complete over 60 % of their passes when they quickly check off their primary downfield target 90 % of the time in order to throw the safe dump pass or 3 yard slant. This is why Holcomb had a grand total of 12 NFL starts up until age 32. He checks off the deeper pass because he can't throw it with his noodle arm.

 

Holcombs shotcomings can not be hidden behind a bogus stat.

 

Starting Kelly Holcomb equals 4 wins, max.

 

I'd rather gamble with someone with a possible upside. Losman first, Nall 2nd,

 

Holcomb...waivers.

[Mickey]

I understand your point, and he definitely needs to be more accurate. Only time will time. This is where we differ though. I absolutely don't believe Losman played with the same bad situations and the same bad plays. In fact, I saw just the opposite.

 

When Losman was in. Game one, series one, play one, he dropped back to pass deep in the pocket. They started with him throwing like that and started every game like that. He had deep drops and he was to throw all over the field. They did that against Tampa and against Atlanta and against New Orleans. As soon as Holcomb came in, they completely changed the philosophy. Because, well, they had to. They immediately gave him three step drops. It wasn't HIS decision because of his reads to throw quick slants to Moulds. It's not a QB's choice to take a 3 or 5 or 7 step drop. Those are the play calls. They instantly went to a safe offense when Holcomb was in, only rarely asking him to drop 7 and survey the field. And that was only after he had done so many short drops and quick throws that it was open for him to do that.

 

It was unconscionable for Mularkey and Clements to not have Losman throw quick easy swings passes and WR screens and a LOT of roll outs to the TE and called dump offs to get his confidence up and to get manageable down and distance. Just plain criminal. They fell in love with his arm. They thought he could do it because he put the time in and knew the offense because of Wyche. Wyche thought he was ready (and made a huge mistake). They saw other teams trying to stop Willis and load up the LOS and make "the rookie" beat them with his arm, and they said to themselves, Go ahead, we're not going to do what you expect us to, this kid is going to throw all over the field. And it was a disaster.

704425[/snapback]

 

I guess we saw different things. What I saw was a lot of roll outs because JP was supposed to be good at throwing on the run and we needed to roll out to avoid pressure. They tried that with Drew. Remember that Titan game with Volek where we needed the two point conversion to send it to OT on the last play of the game. We rolled Drew out and he threw to Shaw who appeared to catch it but when he raised it in the air to celebrate it was knocked out of his hands as he lay on his back? After a replay review they called it incomplete and we lost.

 

That freaking play was a Mularkey fave and he ran it like crazy last year with JP and it didn't work because JP wasn't throwing accurately on the run.

 

Take the Tampa game, first three series we ran the ball with Willis on first down. The first pass was a short one to Neufeld, incomplete. Second pass, short one to Reed for 4 yards. The game plan was different, I won't argue that. They didn't roll out Holcomb for one. Still, it was the same crappy line. We ran the ball, or tried to and failed. That set up bad down and distances from the get go. It was the same with both QB's, the running game failed more often than not.

 

I think we both agree that JP needs to improve, especially accuracy. Whatever the problem was last year is over and done with anyway. I just think that Dick and Marv aren't going to care about some of the issues so often mentioned around here when it comes to picking a starter. I think that if JP is outplayed, albeit clearly outplayed, in preseason, he won't start.

 

I doubt it will come down to that. More likely it will be a murky, less than clear deal and if so, JP starts with a pretty quick hook like last year.

[Mickey]

According to camp observers, it is Nall who has the biggest hill to climb, as the only thing consistent re: his accuracy is how inaccurate he's been.

704430[/snapback]

Great, just what we needed, another inaccurate QB. *sigh*

[Mickey]

Mick, JP did improve his accuracy second time around (look at the games 9-16 splits) and was only pulled when he failed against NE (who wouldn't?).  By comparison, KH enjoyed a run starting at home against weaker opponents.  He also didn't wow anybody in that last game.

 

Yes, same line for the most part.  Not same play calls.

 

I think you're right, to an extent.  JP needs to be more accurate this year.  But I'll settle for the 55% he was doing second half, if he can make big plays, over Holcomb's 67% with few big plays.  And I refuse to believe JP's inaccuracy was a result of anything other than being put in a bad situation.  KH can make the most of a bad situation better than JP, by virtue of his experience, but we all know we want to strive for good situations.  KH puts a cap on those for obvious reasons.  If they are even close in camp, close enough that the decision wouldn't irk all the reasonable vets, it's JP.

704417[/snapback]

Last two starts he was 50% and 37%. Yes, the 37% was NE but it was at home, Holcomb, on the road against NE was at 60%. He had three games in the latter part of the season after he became the starter again where he was in the mid 50's so you are right, he was a little better. Still sucked though, both of them.

 

Here is a cool stat, well maybe not: Inside the 20 JP threw at a 31% clip, Holcomb, at a 70% clip. Were the red zone plays that different?

 

I beleive JP will improve his accuracy, he has to.

[hootie1]

Last two starts he was 50% and 37%.  Yes, the 37% was NE but it was at home, Holcomb, on the road against NE was at 60%.  He had three games in the latter part of the season after he became the starter again where he was in the mid 50's so you are right, he was a little better.  Still sucked though, both of them.

 

Here is a cool stat, well maybe not:  Inside the 20 JP threw at a 31% clip, Holcomb, at a 70% clip.  Were the red zone plays that different?

 

I beleive JP will improve his accuracy, he has to.

 

JP was injured in the New England game, and stayed in. If I recall correctly, the injury happened fairly early, and could have affected his accuracy. He didn't play the next few games after the NE game because of the injury, so it wasn't minor...

704448[/snapback]

[stinky finger]

I totally agree on the idea that he is still young and I brought that up in my post giving him the benefit of the doubt that the 49% was not a true indication of his abilities and pointing out that it was essentially his rookie year.

 

All that other stuff, about the lousy coaches, plays, situations, OL, etc.  I agree, that was a problem last year but you know what, Kelly Holcomb played behind the same line, with the same coaches, same bad situations and the same bad plays.  What worries me are not the incompletions he threw while running for his life on third and 12, trying to hit Evans long.  What worries me are the roll outs we tried so often to get him away from pressure where he threw the ball over the head of Moulds or whoever on a 5 yard out pattern.  I saw that a lot.

 

I am absolutely willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as to what happened last year.  Not this year though.  If he is still sailing them over people's heads or tossing them in the dirt in pre-season this year and Nall or Holcomb aren't, he should sit, despite his arm strength, foot speed, draft position and all that. 

 

I think the job is his to lose and that if he is not clearly out performed in camp he will start but only by default and there will be a quick hook.  My hope is that he plays up to his potential in camp, clearly wipes the floor with Nall and Holcomb and emerges as the undisputed stater opening day.  That will happen....if he improves his accuracy.

704411[/snapback]

I think we may have a new "best post of the year"...........on this subject anyway.

[Rico]

If JP doesn't improve his accuracy and if Nall is more accurate, JP sits.  Not really a radical notion.  I think JP's problems are not his attitude, his personality, any of that stuff.  I think his problem is accuracy.  He hasn't hit his targets long or short.  Dick and Marv are not going to care about JP's credentials.  If the other guys don't really show themselves to be markedly better, JP will get the benefit of the doubt and be the default starter with a quick hook waiting if he falters.

704407[/snapback]

Agree 100%, that's it in a nut-shell.

[Ramius]

What I said: "As ineffective as Holcomb often was, his percentage was 67%. "

 

What you heard:  "...Holcomb's 67% is great".

 

ineffective=great????

 

The point I was making is that 49% is indescribably bad and that Holcomb, as bad as he was, wasn't that bad. 

 

Not all JP's incompletions were long bombs, a lot were 7 yard button hooks or outs on third and 6.  Holcomb's avg. yards per attempt was 6.5, JP's, 5.8.  Kelly had 14 plays over 20 yards and 3 over 40.  JP had 15 over 20 and 6 over 40.  The average per completion was 9.7 and 11.8 so JP was a little higher but in the end, he was not as effective as Holcomb but the bottom line is that neither player deserved to be a starter in this league. 

 

All those numbers tell you is that you had a little better chance of moving the ball forward when Holcomb dropped back to pass than when JP did.  JP isn't going to be a QB on any team throwing at a 49% clip.  As bad as Holcomb is, he was better than JP last year if only barely.

 

If JP doesn't improve his accuracy and if Nall is more accurate, JP sits.  Not really a radical notion.  I think JP's problems are not his attitude, his personality, any of that stuff.  I think his problem is accuracy.  He hasn't hit his targets long or short.  Dick and Marv are not going to care about JP's credentials.  If the other guys don't really show themselves to be markedly better, JP will get the benefit of the doubt and be the default starter with a quick hook waiting if he falters.

704407[/snapback]

 

I agree that Jp needs to improve his accuracy, but i am with kel the dog in that i feel the lack of a good o-line and terrible play calling had a ton to do with JP's failures. Meathead decided to play call according to JP's potential, not according to his current skill level, which is where he went wrong. With holcomb, they play-called to suit holcombs limited abilities. Holcombs 67% is a mirage.

[Rico]

I agree that Jp needs to improve his accuracy, but i am with kel the dog in that i feel the lack of a good o-line and terrible play calling had a ton to do with JP's failures. Meathead decided to play call according to JP's potential, not according to his current skill level, which is where he went wrong. With holcomb, they play-called to suit holcombs limited abilities. Holcombs 67% is a mirage.

704457[/snapback]

Absolutely, but regardless of the cause last year, I think Mickey's bottom line is correct.

If JP still doesn't show improvement and one of the other 2 steps up, JP will sit.

[Orton's Arm]

Holcomb completes so many passes because 80% of his passes do not travel more than 5 yards. Anyone who knows what the word football means will tell you that shorter passes = higher completion %.

I agree that Jp needs to improve his accuracy, but i am with kel the dog in that i feel the lack of a good o-line and terrible play calling had a ton to do with JP's failures. Meathead decided to play call according to JP's potential, not according to his current skill level, which is where he went wrong.

Just this once, I'll write a post disagreeing with your take on Losman.

 

Your first point seems to be that Holcomb achieved his higher completion percentage by always going for the short, safe pass, while Losman attempted more low percentage long bombs. However, Holcomb averaged 6.56 yards per pass attempt in 2005, while Losman averaged just 5.88 yards per pass attempt. For what it's worth, Nall has averaged 9.52 yards per pass attempt in limited play.

 

Secondly, you say that Holcomb was the recipient of much higher quality playcalling than was Losman. But Mularkey has had some experience in making bad quarterbacks look good, as his work with Kordell Stewart and Maddox illustrates. Holcomb also had a much better year under Mularkey than he averaged at Cleveland. Perhaps Mularkey was competent with Stewart, Maddox, and Holcomb, but incompetent with Losman.

 

A different explanation is that Losman's inadequacies forced Mularkey's hand. With Losman under center, defenses typically ganged up to stop the run. One of the running game's main purposes is to take pressure off the passing game. This purpose was being served under Losman--there was very little more defenses could do to dare us to pass. With the Bills' offensive line being what it was, running the football into a pile of nine defenders would simply have been a waste of a down.

 

The second criticism of Mularkey's playcalling was that he wasn't willing to call enough short, safe passes for Losman. Asking a quarterback to take a five or seven step drop behind a bad line, it's said, is a recipe for disaster. But a short, safe, Holcomb-like offense only works when your quarterback is consistently accurate on short to intermediate passes. Losman wasn't. Mularkey knew that any Losman-engineered drive that relied on many consecutive short, safe completions would have been far more likely to stall than to produce points. On the other hand, Losman could sometimes throw a beautiful long bomb to Evans, and score quick points that way. This wasn't a great way to run the offense, because of the lousy line. But Losman's limitations didn't give Mularkey any real alternative.

[CosmicBills]

Absolutely, but regardless of the cause last year, I think Mickey's bottom line is correct.

If JP still doesn't show improvement and one of the other 2 steps up, JP will sit.

704462[/snapback]

 

Yes -- but, and it's a huge but, whoever steps up has to step up HUGE. If it's close, JP plays. If it's a draw, JP plays. If Holcomb is slightly better than JP in camp/preseason, JP STILL plays.

 

The only way someone else starts is if they totally (and I mean drastically) outplay JP.

 

And frankly, I don't think Nall or Holcomb have the tools to do that.

[obie_wan]

Absolutely, but regardless of the cause last year, I think Mickey's bottom line is correct.

If JP still doesn't show improvement and one of the other 2 steps up, JP will sit.

704462[/snapback]

 

The only way JP improves is to play in real games.

 

The only way he doesn't start is if he breaks his leg again.

 

Holcomb is a career backup who mkaes game planning eqsy for the defense. Starting him will do more to set the team back than living with JP's growing pains.

[Rico]

The only way JP improves is to play in real games.

 

The only way he doesn't start is if he breaks his leg again.

 

Holcomb is a career backup who mkaes game planning eqsy for the defense. Starting him will do more to set the team back than living with JP's growing pains.

704490[/snapback]

Agreed... but neither you and I are calling the shots, and I think Marv & DJ see things differently.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Just this once, I'll write a post disagreeing with your take on Losman.

 

Your first point seems to be that Holcomb achieved his higher completion percentage by always going for the short, safe pass, while Losman attempted more low percentage long bombs. However, Holcomb averaged 6.56 yards per pass attempt in 2005, while Losman averaged just 5.88 yards per pass attempt. For what it's worth, Nall has averaged 9.52 yards per pass attempt in limited play.

 

 

 

Leaving aside your other points for the moment, the ypc stat is not the slam-dunk you suggest. A 1-yard flip and 10-yard run results in a ypc of 11 yds. Holcomb did have better stats than JP, but your reference to ypc does not in itself undermine the original point that Holcomb's stats were padded by his reliance on short check downs, combined with some good runs after catches (viz. his two TDs against the Jets, which relied on a heroic RAC by Fast Freddie and a semi-heroic RAC by Moulds).

[Gary M]

JP looked pretty accurate on the three TD's to Lee Evans in the first quarter of the Dolphins game.

 

I think Roscoe Parrish should be the starting QB, he has 100% completions, and no sacks.

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/BUF

[RuntheDamnBall]

Your first point seems to be that Holcomb achieved his higher completion percentage by always going for the short, safe pass, while Losman attempted more low percentage long bombs.  However, Holcomb averaged 6.56 yards per pass attempt in 2005, while Losman averaged just 5.88 yards per pass attempt.  For what it's worth, Nall has averaged 9.52 yards per pass attempt in limited play.

Leaving aside your other points for the moment, the ypc stat is not the slam-dunk you suggest. A 1-yard flip and 10-yard run results in a ypc of 11 yds. Holcomb did have better stats than JP, but your reference to ypc does not in itself undermine the original point that Holcomb's stats were padded by his reliance on short check downs, combined with some good runs after catches (viz. his two TDs against the Jets, which relied on a heroic RAC by Fast Freddie and a semi-heroic RAC by Moulds).

704506[/snapback]

And not even that. Holcomb's Arm was citing yards per attempt, which obviously works out better for someone who has more attempts and more completions. Yards per completion for Losman are actually better (11.9) than Holcomb's (9.7).

[Gary M]

And not even that.  Holcomb's Arm was citing yards per attempt, which obviously works out better for someone who has more attempts and more completions.  Yards per completion for Losman are actually better (11.9) than Holcomb's (9.7).

704523[/snapback]

 

 

DING DING DING

 

We have a winner.

 

SATS LIE.

[Orton's Arm]

And not even that.  Holcomb's Arm was citing yards per attempt, which obviously works out better for someone who has more attempts and more completions. 

Wrong. You can't inflate a yards per attempt stat simply by having more attempts. If player A uses 10 attempts to pass for 100 yards, and player B uses 100 attempts to pass for 1000 yards, both players will have the same 10 yards per attempt.

 

Yards per attempt is a much better indicator of a quarterback's yardage production than yardage per completion. Let's say quarterback A completes a 5 yard pass and a 50 yard pass. Quarterback B fails to complete the 5 yard pass, but still completes the 50 yarder. Quarterback A will have 27.5 yards per completion, as opposed to 50 yards per completion for quarterback B. In other words, the yards per completion stat rewards quarterbacks who miss short passes. Quarterback A will have a slightly higher yards per attempt, correctly indicating he's producing slightly more yards than quarterback B.

 

Any system of measurement which rewards a quarterback for missing short passes--as yards per completion does--is bound to make Losman appear to be better than he really is.

[Bill from NYC]

I still think Losman will be the starter this season and increase his accuracy. 

 

  Anybody can complete over 60 % of their passes when they quickly check off their primary downfield target 90 % of the time in order to throw the safe dump pass or 3 yard slant. This is why Holcomb had a grand total of 12 NFL starts up until age 32. He checks off the deeper pass because he can't throw it with his noodle arm.

 

Holcombs shotcomings can not be hidden behind a bogus stat.

 

Starting Kelly Holcomb equals 4 wins, max.

 

I'd rather gamble with someone with a possible upside. Losman first, Nall 2nd,

 

Holcomb...waivers.

704436[/snapback]

 

I agree with what you say to a very large degree. The thing is, JP's accuracy is certainly a serious cause of concern.

This link shows that even Alex Van Pelt threw for a 54.9 completion percentage. JP needs to improve a lot Mark.

 

I also agree with you and KTD that he will start on opening day. Hey, I want him to play well as much as any Bills Fan, but I am hoping (and do suspect) that Jauron will have a short leash.

 

We all have better things to do than to watch Losman continue to suck.

[Orton's Arm]

Leaving aside your other points for the moment, the ypc stat is not the slam-dunk you suggest. A 1-yard flip and 10-yard run results in a ypc of 11 yds. Holcomb did have better stats than JP, but your reference to ypc does not in itself undermine the original point that Holcomb's stats were padded by his reliance on short check downs, combined with some good runs after catches (viz. his two TDs against the Jets, which relied on a heroic RAC by Fast Freddie and a semi-heroic RAC by Moulds).

Say that a quarterback is fortunate enough to be throwing to receivers who are good at running after the catch. Given equal levels of play, this quarterback's yards per attempt is going to look better than that of some other quarterback whose receivers don't run well after the catch. The point isn't really applicable to a Holcomb/Losman discussion though, because both quarterbacks were throwing to the same receiving corps.

[Fixxxer]

I think Holcomb will be the starter come September until he has one sh------- performance (ala season finale in NJ) or is sidelined because of injury.

 

Then it will be JP's time and he will finally look decent while improving each and every game.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Say that a quarterback is fortunate enough to be throwing to receivers who are good at running after the catch.  Given equal levels of play, this quarterback's yards per attempt is going to look better than that of some other quarterback whose receivers don't run well after the catch.  The point isn't really applicable to a Holcomb/Losman discussion though, because both quarterbacks were throwing to the same receiving corps.

704573[/snapback]

 

 

Ah, but if we consider the possibility that Holcomb was more likely to throw the short check-downs than Losman, and completed more of them, then the same receiving corps can have quite different results.

 

My point is not necessarily to champion JP, but rather to point out that there are too many variables at play to select one, such as ypc, and use it as a point of comparison.

 

 

EDIT: and, as brought up above their is a big difference between relying on yards per completion vs. yards per attempt.... further proof for why stats in isolation can be an unreliable indicator.

[Matt in KC]

Wrong.  You can't inflate a yards per attempt stat simply by having more attempts. 

704554[/snapback]

Actually, RDB said more attempts and completions.

 

I think our "analysis" got a bit off track and circular.

 

Review:

Mickey said JP needs to be more accurate

Mark VI said JPs accuracy was in part because JPs pass attempts were longer / riskier (because of the plays called)

Mickey provided strong stats on Red zone completion rates that went ignored:

Here is a cool stat, well maybe not: Inside the 20 JP threw at a 31% clip, Holcomb, at a 70% clip. Were the red zone plays that different?

RJ (not THAT RJ) said that yards per attempt were higher for Holcomb (who we know had more completions)

RDB pionted out that Mark VIs point about longer riskier passes seemed to bear out when you looked at yards per completion.

 

Yards per attempt is a compound of both yards per attempt and completion percentage (which is what we're trying to explain in the first place). The real question is what is the yards per incompletion, which I don't think is recorded anywhere. And, if it was, could not be compared to yards per completion, since as RJ (not THAT RJ) said, that figure includes the run after the catch. I do believe in general it's easier for WRs to run further on average after short sure passes than long bombs. But, Lee Evans sure added a lot of YAC on those TD passes from JP....

[Mickey]

Just this once, I'll write a post disagreeing with your take on Losman.

 

Your first point seems to be that Holcomb achieved his higher completion percentage by always going for the short, safe pass, while Losman attempted more low percentage long bombs. However, Holcomb averaged 6.56 yards per pass attempt in 2005, while Losman averaged just 5.88 yards per pass attempt. For what it's worth, Nall has averaged 9.52 yards per pass attempt in limited play.

Leaving aside your other points for the moment, the ypc stat is not the slam-dunk you suggest. A 1-yard flip and 10-yard run results in a ypc of 11 yds. Holcomb did have better stats than JP, but your reference to ypc does not in itself undermine the original point that Holcomb's stats were padded by his reliance on short check downs, combined with some good runs after catches (viz. his two TDs against the Jets, which relied on a heroic RAC by Fast Freddie and a semi-heroic RAC by Moulds).

704506[/snapback]

 

You guys are arguing over two different stats I think. I pointed out earlier in the thread that HJolcomb has a higher yardage per attempt number (ypa) but JP has the higher number when it comes to yards per completion (ypc). The shows that when JP threw, he went deeper than Holcomb on average but he didn't complete enough of them to move the ball as effectively as Holcomb did. Normally, the guy with the higher ypc would have higher ypa as well but not here. The reason is the drastic difference between the completion percentages. Holcomb completed so many more of his passes than did JP that it more than made up for the fact that he threw shorter than JP did. Again, the issue is accuracy.