Thanksgiving Day game thread (no Bills stuff please)

[DapperCam]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I think Campbell has crossed the line this year and should have taken the FG on the earlier 4th down, but this one going for it was automatic IMO. They haven't stopped Green Bay all night and are running out of time.

But even if they score a TD on that drive after going for it on 4th down it is still a 3 point game. So no matter what happens the defense will have to make a stop.

[billsfan714]

It worked so well in the NFC championship game.

[VaMilBill]

Can’t take a sack there. The mindset should be this is a drive where we have to score. So we will go for it on 4th down. So 3rd downs we can throw short of the sticks

[DapperCam]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

absolute no brainer to go for it there

lol right

 

you dont know who ben baldwin is

'random statistical model' 😂😂

 

STATS ARE FOR LOSERZZZZ

Stats aren't for losers, but the predictive ability of these models is limited in football. Each play isn't an independent event you can simulate in isolation. Doubt his model accounts for the ability of the offense or defense. Doubt his model accounts for how the respective teams have been playing during the game. Doubt his model accounts for even the success rate of each team on 4th and short situations.

It is likely just a statistical model that says given the score and time on the clock here is the probability of winning based on going for it vs kicking the FG/punting.

This isn't baseball, it isn't one pitcher vs one batter, and there isn't a sample size of hundreds of thousands of pitches thrown during a regular season.

[SirAndrew]

Why am I never impressed with Aidan Hutchinson, am I missing something? 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

But even if they score a TD on that drive after going for it on 4th down it is still a 3 point game. So no matter what happens the defense will have to make a stop.

 

The thought is you need to score a TD and then hold Green Bay to a FG at best. Then you get the ball back down 6 and right back in it. Getting to down by 7 and then kicking off doesn't help when their offense has had its way with you all day.

 

Edited 39 minutes ago by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

Just now, DapperCam said:

Stats aren't for losers, but the predictive ability of these models is limited in football. Each play isn't an independent event you can simulate in isolation. Doubt his model accounts for the ability of the offense or defense. Doubt his model accounts for how the respective teams have been playing during the game. Doubt his model accounts for even the success rate of each team on 4th and short situations.

It is likely just a statistical model that says given the score and time on the clock here is the probability of winning based on going for it vs kicking the FG/punting.

This isn't baseball, it isn't one pitcher vs one batter, and there isn't a sample size of hundreds of thousands of pitches thrown during a regular season.

expected value of kicking FG in that spot vs EV of going for it results in EPA +/-

 

not terribly complicated, nor something to outright reject because it runs counter to your feels

[HappyDays]

Detroit is playing with zero urgency, I have no clue what the plan is here. They trust their defense to get a quick stop?

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

It will also be very possible it gets aggravated even worse. 

How can it not? What is he gonna need a cast on?

[Marcus Aurelius]

Now kick the FG  🤔 

[SirAndrew]

Micah Parsons making huge plays, what a great pickup for the Packers. 

[The Jokeman]

13 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

So annoying when receivers drop passes for a 1 st down

It's the coach's fault, right?

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Detroit is playing with zero urgency, I have no clue what the plan is here. They trust their defense to get a quick stop?

Points and recover an onside kick, come on it's easy.

[DapperCam]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The thought is you need to score a TD and then hold Green Bay to a FG at best. Then you get the ball back down 6 and right back in it. Getting to down by 7 and then kicking off doesn't help when their offense has had its way with you all day.

 

I guess, but then your offense needs to score 2 TDs instead of just 1 TD. The tradeoff would be

Scenario 1:
- Your defense needs to force a punt or turnover
- Your offense needs to convert the FG, and have a TD drive

Scenario 2:
- Your defense needs to prevent a TD and force a FG
- Your offense needs to convert the 4th down, score a TD, and then have another TD drive

I think scenario 1 is more likely, but it's close (Packers did score 4 consecutive TDs up to that drive).

[SirAndrew]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Detroit is playing with zero urgency, I have no clue what the plan is here. They trust their defense to get a quick stop?

They lost the brains of the operation when Johnson left, Campbell certainly isn’t it. 

[buffblue]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Detroit is playing with zero urgency, I have no clue what the plan is here. They trust their defense to get a quick stop?

They could be in the exact same position down 31-24 and have 5 1/2 minutes left on the clock instead of 3. The huddling is insane when you are trailing. There is a limited amount of possessions remaining and your defense struggles to stop anything.

Edited 30 minutes ago by buffblue

[GoBills808]

Got to love when the math immediately makes sense

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, buffblue said:

They could be in the exact same position down 31-24 and have 5 1/2 minutes left on the clock instead of 3. The huddling is insane when you are trailing. There is a limited amount of possessions remaining and your defense struggles to stop anything.

 

Yeah they basically put themselves in a position where they needed to get a 3 and out or the game is over.

[Fan in Chicago]

28 minutes ago, Simon said:

I'm all for being aggressive on 4th down, but that was irretrievably stupid.

 

Didn't Campbell also lose a playoff game with that stupidity? There is a time and place to go for it.  And then there are times when you don't.  

[DapperCam]

I think I would go for it here...one play to end the game and the Lions still need a TD if you don't get it.

Edited 19 minutes ago by DapperCam

[HappyDays]

Christian Watson singlehandedly tried to give the Lions life. Stupidly goes out of bounds on the last 3rd down and then drops a pass that could have ended the game.