Polymarket turns Head Coaches into Investment Opportunities for the Common Man

[Walking Tall]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

not a snowball’s chance in hell he’s fired after this season… even if we lose out (which we won’t).

Only one way that happens. #17 voices displeasure to Beane or Pegula.

[Allen2Moulds]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I believe they are a package deal. If you get rid of one, may as well start fresh.

 

As far as GMs go, I would do a deep dive of the Rams FO staff. They seem to have the drafting thing down and do well with bringing on impactful FAs. They also find decent UDFAs and know when to let a vet walk (like Rapp).

 

Head Coaches, I know this will be unpopular, but I still like Bobby Slowik. And I know this is going to be super unpopular...but I give Matt Nagy a look. The guy made the playoffs TWICE with Trubisky as his starting QB. He's went back under Reid. I think he's a guy that could do well in a second try. 

I like the idea of targeting the Rams organization.

As for Slowik, he's at the very bottom of the list for me. 

It turns out that he's a fraud, or at least he was, aa the Texans OC.

 

Going into year 2, Chris Simms on his unbuttoned podcast, basically said that this guy's knowledge consisted of knowing a playbook, but not an actual offense. He further said, now that teams have a year of film, he was curious how he would do year 2. If you don't know the actual rules of an offense, how are you going to get answers. As we all know, he got fired about 1/2 way through year 2.

Slowik was under Shanahan in SF, who is close friends with Simms. This to me says a lot, about how they feel about him as a coach. 

 

Ironically enough, I'm starting to feel that way about Brady, running almost the same plays as last year's, and not having in game answers or counters for things.

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I like the idea of targeting the Rams organization.

As for Slowik, he's at the very bottom of the list for me. 

It turns out that he's a fraud, or at least he was, aa the Texans OC.

 

Going into year 2, Chris Simms on his unbuttoned podcast, basically said that this guy's knowledge consisted of knowing a playbook, but not an actual offense. He further said, now that teams have a year of film, he was curious how he would do year 2. If you don't know the actual rules of an offense, how are you going to get answers. As we all know, he got fired about 1/2 way through year 2.

Slowik was under Shanahan in SF, who is close friends with Simms. This to me says a lot, about how they feel about him as a coach. 

 

Ironically enough, I'm starting to feel that way about Brady, running almost the same plays as last year's, and not having in game answers or counters for things.

Fair point on Slowik. And possibly telling no one else picked him as an OC.

 

It does seem that this year CJ Stroud regressed even more as did their offense. My biggest hope is that in the event Joe Brady isn't here next year is that the Bills look outside and not promote from within. Ronald Curry doesn't really spark hope. 

[Shortchaz]

Gambling is cool

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Interesting thing about this is McDermott has the second best odds of any coach on poly market. 

Such an easy money bet to bet against that lol idk who sets these things initially 

 

any reputable bookmaker offering odds on next coach fired mcd is not even in the picture…Raheem Morris is the overwhelming favorite then Zac Taylor is second at like +150 …goes all the way down to Kellen Moore at +1400 with no mention of mcd 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Any list where your coach is bracketed by Carroll and Gannon probably isn't a good thing 

There’s some actual sportsbooks that offer this bet and while they vary wildly mcd is never even offered as an option lol in reality he’d be in the +3000 type territory if they listed him I think.   not sure what polymarket is smoking here…I’d imagine they set the bets to like 50/50 initially and there’s not enough people betting on this to actually use this as a predictor of anything 

Edited 7 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[wppete]

 

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Such an easy money bet to bet against that lol idk who sets these things initially 

 

any reputable bookmaker offering odds on next coach fired mcd is not even in the picture…Raheem Morris is the overwhelming favorite then Zac Taylor is second at like +150 …goes all the way down to Kellen Moore at +1400 with no mention of mcd 

I'm pretty sure poly market is set by the bets 

 

Not odds by oddsmakers .... So it's more fan opinion versus bookie opinion

 

 

1 minute ago, wppete said:

 

Their market is not set by Vegas odds 

 

It's literally everybody on poly market who have their opinion.. and they bet their opinion 

 

Las Vegas had Harris as the favorite to win running up to the election.. poly market had Trump because their market was heavily betting Trump which made him the favorite on their site 

 

So its public opinion not the opinion of sharks

[VaMilBill]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

not a snowball’s chance in hell he’s fired after this season… even if we lose out (which we won’t).

I agree on McD not being fired. But I can see Beane getting canned. This roster is old, injury prone and has not emerging stars on it…maybe deone Walker 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

54 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm pretty sure poly market is set by the bets 

 

Not odds by oddsmakers .... So it's more fan opinion versus bookie opinion

 

 

Their market is not set by Vegas odds 

 

It's literally everybody on poly market who have their opinion.. and they bet their opinion 

 

Las Vegas had Harris as the favorite to win running up to the election.. poly market had Trump because their market was heavily betting Trump which made him the favorite on their site 

 

So its public opinion not the opinion of sharks

Oh yea that’s kind of what I was getting at with the overall point…polymarket isn’t grounded in the real world at all so mcd showing up there means absolutely nothing.  I was questioning how it got set initially though like it really doesn’t even make sense for it to be driven entirely on the bets to be at 50/50 ish right now.   theres a ton of bills fans that know he’s not getting fired this offseason and the 31 other fan bases gotta think he won’t be fired also 😂 not sure if maybe it opens close to 50/50 then it’s all driven by the bets? 
 

I think you’re buying shares in yes or no and get matched up with people that bet the other side so polymarket just wants action either way to collect fees and just nobody is betting on these next coach fired things lol this is such a weird example though because mcd getting fired is comically unlikely…what happens if everyone bets no and nobody takes the yes side at all even as they adjust the price down to like a cent for yes (which still might be too high) 
 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[strive_for_five_guy]

The volume on this market is literally $1,400 right now.  Aka there’s pretty much no one actually betting on this.  And with the current payouts, one could literally load up on “No” bets and win money, because only one of those coaches would actually be the next one fired.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

The volume on this market is literally $1,400 right now.  Aka there’s pretty much no one actually betting on this.  And with the current payouts, one could literally load up on “No” bets and win money, because only one of those coaches would actually be the next one fired.

Yea that’s what I figured lol it just does not compute at all even to be entirely bet driven unless the volume was pretty much non existent…I feel like this bet is gonna straight up break the polymarket model haha 

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

That list starts with Joe Brady, so not sure how much I trust it lol

the joy of ranking two dozen common head coach mentioned names alphabetically 

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oh yea that’s kind of what I was getting at with the overall point…polymarket isn’t grounded in the real world at all so mcd showing up there means absolutely nothing.  I was questioning how it got set initially though like it really doesn’t even make sense for it to be driven entirely on the bets to be at 50/50 ish right now.   theres a ton of bills fans that know he’s not getting fired this offseason and the 31 other fan bases gotta think he won’t be fired also 😂 not sure if maybe it opens close to 50/50 then it’s all driven by the bets? 
 

I think you’re buying shares in yes or no and get matched up with people that bet the other side so polymarket just wants action either way to collect fees and just nobody is betting on these next coach fired things lol this is such a weird example though because mcd getting fired is comically unlikely…what happens if everyone bets no and nobody takes the yes side at all even as they adjust the price down to like a cent for yes (which still might be too high) 
 

 

perhaps, and call me crazy, your perception of how he’s currently viewed is slightly out of touch 

[Captain Hindsight]

I’ve defended McDermott for years. I know plenty of people in the Bills organization that love him. Say he is the nicest, most genuine dude and works extremely hard. I want him to prove us all wrong, but the last 3 years have shown the same issues over and over again. At some point, you have to consider making a move 

 

McDermott will get a job quick, and build a good roster and respect to an organization. But I think he’s brought us as far as he can 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

54 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the joy of ranking two dozen common head coach mentioned names alphabetically 

perhaps, and call me crazy, your perception of how he’s currently viewed is slightly out of touch 

I guess there’s not a big shortage of idiots that will throw their money away out of the entire world population to be fair haha. But I think I can comfortably call you crazy here as it’s probably pretty safe to say the overwhelming majority of nfl viewers do not think there’s any chance Sean McDermott is the NEXT coach fired 😂. If the bet was fired at some point in the next few years yea maybe it’s in the 40-50% range 

 

it almost feels like a few people basically did a go fund me just to say McDermott is in the polymarket for the next coach fired bet haha 
 

Anecdotal of course as social media doesn’t always mirror real life but in all my time spent terminally online I’d say opposing fanbases are overall significantly more positive on mcd than bills fans and more negative on josh.  I see the ‘Josh gets the ball last in big games and doesn’t deliver why are we blaming an injured defense’ take a good amount from other teams.  The amount of people that think McDermott is actively a bad coach always seems very low but you do get the ‘but is he good enough’ discussion for sure 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[US Egg]

7 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

It’s pretty wild to see how betting has changed over the last 5 years. 

I wasn’t aware of this, but just bought the Amazon Black Friday NBA League pass special and was prompted to link it to my FD account. Ignored it not thinking anything. Put on a game to watch, there’s a pop up bet tracking option offered if you bet on the game. 

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, US Egg said:

I wasn’t aware of this, but just bought the Amazon Black Friday NBA League pass special and was prompted to link it to my FD account. Ignored it not thinking anything. Put on a game to watch, there’s a pop up bet tracking option offered if you bet on the game. 

That is wild. It’s crazy to say the least, especially with all the big 4 leagues pushing it so hard. I’ve always dabbled and for most my life it was something I just didn’t discuss because so few people understood any of it. Now it’s just standard recreation for many.
 

But this peer to peer stuff is way out there. I remember before the offshores were basically banned, we had some peer to peer places get shut down in the US. Then they just disappeared. That followed the sports books lobbying for almost a decade to get it legal. Then they finally start winning at the state level. But now even Robinhood is offering straight spreads and totals in all 52 states saying they don’t need any betting licenses because they aren’t a bookie. Hard to imagine this is sustainable. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Mikie2times

[US Egg]

33 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

That is wild. It’s crazy to say the least, especially with all the big 4 leagues pushing it so hard. I’ve always dabbled and for most my life it was something I just didn’t discuss because so few people understood any of it. Now it’s just standard recreation for many.

That Amazon is involved, “assisting” FanDuel, is ominous. As if legalized gambling couldn’t get any darker. They’re not the kind to play second fiddle/middle man for others, not for long anyways. Bigger things from them on this front is inevitable.

[philholbroo]

11 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

It surprises me to see McDermott this high, given his resume. I was never part of the fire McDermott crowd and have been more critical of Beane's drafts picks.

 

However, McDermott seems to get the most out of secondary talent, but the opposite might be true for the dline.  Looking at both Poona, and Settle performing at a high level elsehwere, makes me think there's a big problem with his scheme. 

 

However, there's no Ben Johnson this year, or Sean Payton.  

 

For anyone wanting him fired, who do we replace him with, and is it a HC/GM package deal?

 

Dan Lanning will coach Bills to at least 2 superbowls. keep Beane, he drafts/signs for his head coach's scheme.

pay the 20 mil buyout and give him 15 mil year and watch Bills gel.

Edited 48 minutes ago by philholbroo

[philholbroo]

2 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I’ve defended McDermott for years. I know plenty of people in the Bills organization that love him. Say he is the nicest, most genuine dude and works extremely hard. I want him to prove us all wrong, but the last 3 years have shown the same issues over and over again. At some point, you have to consider making a move 

 

McDermott will get a job quick, and build a good roster and respect to an organization. But I think he’s brought us as far as he can 

I was afraid 3 years ago they had reached their pinnacle with Mcdermott, unless he was willing to overhaul his thinking. I don't think he has. Nut I still do love having a team that should make it to the playoffs every year so at least we have that.

Edited 44 minutes ago by philholbroo