A Few Thoughts about the Bucs Game - Community Edition

[No_Matter_What]

@Virgil Re snap counts.

 

We had 70 total defensive snaps.

 

Hairston 36 / White 34

Poyer 58 / Hancock 15

 

So CB2 was 50/50 job and there was actually less Hancock than recent games.

[corta765]

48 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

As far as the run defense...think it always goes to the defensive tackles.  If you look at the history of the best run stuffing LBs in the history of the Bills and the NFL, they probably had a dominant DT in front of them.  Even if the Tackles weren't making the play themselves, they were occupying a double team that meant less pressure on the linebackers behind them.

 

Fridge Perry - Mike Singletary

Siragusa/Sam Adams - Ray Lewis

 

Bills just don't have THAT guy at the position since Kyle William

Timing in sports is sometimes a b*tch. Kyle Williams would've been so good with this group and heck even Jerry Hughes (peak  with his drive/personality would've added some needed juice they never have had on the d-line. I think they hoped Edmunds would've become a true blue blood LB whereas he is just really good. It figures Oliver has seemingly come into his own this year only to get hurt.

[Big Turk]

I know this is crazy saying it after the Bills scored 44 points but I felt like they left a lot of easy plays out there and could have easily put up 60 on the Bucs.  

 

On the long throw to Hardman, Shakir is running wide open on a deep crosser 25 yards downfield with nobody anywhere near him and he might have taken it to the house...

 

 

on another play where Samuel was wide open and turned the wrong way at first or it was an easy 40+ yard TD...

 

they had players running wide open all day long it seemed like and Allen missed quite a few of them that he doesn't usually miss (the airmail to a wide open Shakir out of bounds along the sideline) that I believe happened before the 2nd INT on 4th down, etc...

Edited 13 hours ago by Big Turk

[billsfan714]

Thank god for the Bengals or we would have the worst rushing defense in the league.  It was the same old, same old except we made Sean Tucker look like Gibbs.  It wasnt a good runningback this time.  It was a guy who probably isnt rostered in 14 team fantasy leagues.  Look at the teams in the bottom 8 in rush defense, none of them will go to the superbowl, including us.  As happy as I was seeing an improved passing attack, it was more than disappointing watching that rush defense, again.  Its atrocious, plain and simple.

[corta765]

@Virgil

 

3. Shakir

 

So I agree with you to an extent, but I actually think it is deeper with Shakir and his productivity being down. This last game it was these three factors:

 

1. Injury, they absolutely used him as a decoy

2. Josh looking for bigger plays and not looking low as much

3. Teams are defending him differently now.

 

Take a look at Shakir's numbers from mid 2023 right before Brady on his production skyrocketed. Brady absolutely found some cheat code stuff with the screens and short yardage which he blossomed under. Last year he was brilliant in the slot and game in game out he was dynamite.

 

This year though teams are doubling him and cheating down more so it has been far more boom or bust. Luckily he is so good he is more boom then bust, but if you combine his longest catch yardage in each game together literally half his yardage this year has been on those plays (227 yards). By comparison last year he had 353 yards on his longest each game out of his 821 yards receiving (factor in last game vs NE he didn't play). Still a sizable amount by any means but he was a bit more diversified. Additionally as others have pointed out Brady has not been using him across the middle the same / Josh has stop throwing to him nearly as much there.

 

Overall he is still on a trajectory for a similar season to last year, but his usage has been different by comparison and Buffalo has struggled a bit in how teams have defended him IMO which is part of why the passing game has been stifled.

 

I truly believe if they can get some better outside WRs in next year you could see him go off for like 1100 yards 80 recs 10 TDs.

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

3 - Shavers.  Keon's benching led directly to the coming out party for Shavers.  I'm fine with Keon riding the pines until a WR injury forces him back into the lineup.  Tyrell "Earnie" Shavers is here to stay, and he just wrestled the #1 spot from Keon's cold, dead hand.  

Keon was our number 1? Good lawd thats bad 😂

[BCAS Baritone]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

Keon was our number 1? Good lawd thats bad 😂

At least in terms of snaps he definitely has been.  Total snaps this year (including week 11, when Keon didn't play)

425 - Keon Coleman

392 - Khalil Shakir

223 - Tyrell Shavers

201 - Joshua Palmer

159 - Elijah Moore

151 - Curtis Samuel

 

[BRH]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I know this is crazy saying it after the Bills scored 44 points but I felt like they left a lot of easy plays out there and could have easily put up 60 on the Bucs.  

 

On the long throw to Hardman, Shakir is running wide open on a deep crosser 25 yards downfield with nobody anywhere near him and he might have taken it to the house...

 

 

 

I 100% believe that throw to Hardman was happening no matter what, just to send a message early on.

 

It would have been a completion to Shakir, and maybe he breaks it, but the safety and CB would have let Hardman go the second they saw the ball going to Shakir.  Big gain for sure, but at that point in the game I was perfectly fine with the lower-percentage bomb just for the message it sent.

[BobbyC81]

6 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

As always, great writeup.  I really appreciate your thoughts on the game, as you hit on all the key things.

 

On the coaching thing, I couldn't help but think to myself, who is calling this defense?   I know they showed McD with a playsheet, but Bobby is still in the booth, and I'm thinking that at the moment, both are involved.  I would love to see Bobby on the sideline and erase all doubt.  To me, the defensive calls felt a lot more like the 1st half against Atlanta.  Specifically remember a 3rd and 12, where we chose to sit back and play soft coverage, and allow the conversion.  It was a very vanilla look, no disguise, no pressure.  I thought to myself, was that McD?   McD is typically more aggressive in those situations.

I don't think we'll ever truly know.  They'll likely continue to say that it's a collaborate effort between the 2.

 

As for the run D, it always starts with the D-line, but Bernard playing with a bad wheel, and both Milano, and Poyer not having any wheels at this point, all contributes.  I was really surprised that Shaq Thompson was a full go at practice and was then inactive.  I'm wondering if that has to do with the short turnaround, and Bernard already being banged up. Maybe McD sits Bernard this week, and gives him a full 2 weeks to rest that ankle.

 

I would love to see a lot more of Shaq and Dorian.  If Bernard could get fully Healthy, Ideally, I would like to see Shaq and Bernard, assuming Shaq is able to play Milano's WLB role. 

I was glad to see Williams in some as a 3rd LB on first down, not that it helped the rushing total given up.

 

 I wish they would just use Bosa as a pass rushing specialist.  He frequently fails to hold the edge and they give up big chunks on runs.   Isn’t Epenesa better against the run?

[JGMcD2]

7 hours ago, Wraith said:

You're analysis on the play from Point #1 is not accurate. If anything, Allen locked in on Knox too early and/or for too long. As J.J. Watt mentioned during the game, the Tampa LB gets lost in coverage immediately, which Josh recognizes, but due to the nature of Knox's route and the cross-traffic, Allen has to wait several beats before pulling the trigger. Josh throws the ball with two defenders crossing in front of Knox but their momentum carries them out of the throwing lane. Unfortunately, the Tampa LB recovers and is able to cover a ton of ground to break up the pass.

 

 

I thought this had a chance to go to the house if he had just checked it down to Ty. At the very least it was a 10-15 yard gain. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

In particular order, Congrats on the kiddo's big win!

[HappyDays]

14 hours ago, Wraith said:

You're analysis on the play from Point #1 is not accurate. If anything, Allen locked in on Knox too early and/or for too long. As J.J. Watt mentioned during the game, the Tampa LB gets lost in coverage immediately, which Josh recognizes, but due to the nature of Knox's route and the cross-traffic, Allen has to wait several beats before pulling the trigger. Josh throws the ball with two defenders crossing in front of Knox but their momentum carries them out of the throwing lane. Unfortunately, the Tampa LB recovers and is able to cover a ton of ground to break up the pass.

 

 

 

I didn't have any problem with this read from Allen. It's 4th down and the 1st read appears like it will be open, you take it every time. Palmer getting knocked down and Latu getting slowed up disrupted the timing because Allen is waiting for the short crossers to pass so he can throw the ball.

 

I'd like to see Knox show some awareness here... He's just standing watching the ball come to him and somehow doesn't realize a defender is on his way to the ball. Step up and sn*tch that thing out of the air.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HappyDays