Would you rather playoff seeding scenario?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

I would think if you win the division your more than likely the 1 seed and would have a bye week to heal and it’s a lot easier to win 2 games in a row than 3 to make the SB.

I think it’s easier to make the Super Bowl if we don’t have to play KC.  
 

if you could get the 1 seed AND NOT play KC, I’d vote for that

[Kirby Jackson]

44 minutes ago, Antonio said:

It is quite possible to get the No. 1 seed and either Ravens or KC are out of the playoffs, maybe even both. 

This is obviously the dream scenario. 100% of people would pick that.

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is obviously the dream scenario. 100% of people would pick that.

That's just it. Since I'm only a fan and the outcome truly doesn't change my life I think it would be awesome to go beat the Chiefs to get to the super bowl and win. 

 

I want to go out there slay the dragon, ***** the prom queen, eat my cake, maybe even ***** the dragon and the cake. I want it all. 

Edited 3 hours ago by boyst

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Some of it comes down to seeding but the extra rest/prep time against the divisional opponent goes a long way imo 

 

if the ravens and chiefs both make the playoffs and play eachother before they play us, 1 seed is a no brainer imo.  If we’d get one of them in the divisional and possibly 1 in the conference championship I can see the other side of it but would probably go 1 seed still 

Edited 3 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Pecker]

This is an easy one - no chiefs no ravens.  
 

chiefs are the reason we haven’t been to multiple SBs these last few years.

 

are you really scared of Daniel Jones in the playoffs? Or Bo Nix?  Nah - let Mahomes watch from home and Allen takes us to the promised land.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

2 minutes ago, ***** said:

This is an easy one - no chiefs no ravens.  
 

chiefs are the reason we haven’t been to multiple SBs these last few years.

 

are you really scared of Daniel Jones in the playoffs? Or Bo Nix?  Nah - let Mahomes watch from home and Allen takes us to the promised land.

 

Counter:  We haven't won a road playoff game since..... ?     

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Ravens are currently the betting favorite to win their division. Us being the 1 seed actually helps those teams in their strength of record. 
 

In this scenario  is you’re assuming those teams win, you’re picking between 2 home games against the hardest teams vs. 3 road games against less accomplished teams. It’s a tough decision this way. It’s split right down the middle. 

 

If KC and Ravens are the betting favorite to win their division, then why are the only 2 scenarios ones where either both win the division or both miss the playoffs entirely?  Seems more plausible that 1 may win the division and the other a wildcard, both wildcards, or one makes the playoffs and one misses.  

 

But besides that, I don't think the path is as easy as you think it is outside KC and Ravens.  Denver has a legit defense and a mobile QB, things that have caused problems for the Bills before.  Indy's offense is the exact kind of offense that eats against this defense - great run game, mobile QB, and guys who we typically struggle to cover in Pittman and Warren.  And they just improved the weakest part of their defense, which was already pretty solid before hand, with adding Sauce (even though they over paid).  And as much as people crapped on Sauce after the trade, a lot of people said the same thing when Rams traded for Ramsey who went on to be rejuvenated and helped them win a SB and was back to his early form.  So don't be surprised if Sauce looks more like his earlier self on a winning team after being stuck in football purgatory with the Jests.

 

But none of that really matters in this question - Its statistically less likely for us to make and win the Super Bowl having to play 3 playoff games with at least 2 on the road vs playing only 2 games, both at home.  There is no SoS that will erase the statistical advantage having to play 1 less game and playing all games at home. 

 

The mathematically correct answer is 1 seed, and we have proven we can beat both KC and the Ravens, so there should be no reason to fear them so much in the playoffs that we take on the risk of playing 3 games and at least 2 of them on the road. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, ***** said:

This is an easy one - no chiefs no ravens.  
 

chiefs are the reason we haven’t been to multiple SBs these last few years.

 

are you really scared of Daniel Jones in the playoffs? Or Bo Nix?  Nah - let Mahomes watch from home and Allen takes us to the promised land.

Colts can probably coast to an afc south win but if someone like pit or denver does enough to hold off the ravens/chiefs down the stretch they are probably pretty good teams at minimum.  Right now yea it’s easy to see those two teams as pretty ehh but it’s gonna take a couple months of solid efforts to keep the ravens and chiefs out.
 

I think I’d rather play the lowest remaining seed in the divisional and the conf championship both at home than three pretty good teams on the road but I can see both sides.  Football is just so unpredictable…if the wrong guy gets injured in the wildcard round  the party is over 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If KC and Ravens are the betting favorite to win their division, then why are the only 2 scenarios ones where either both win the division or both miss the playoffs entirely?  Seems more plausible that 1 may win the division and the other a wildcard, both wildcards, or one makes the playoffs and one misses.  

 

But besides that, I don't think the path is as easy as you think it is outside KC and Ravens.  Denver has a legit defense and a mobile QB, things that have caused problems for the Bills before.  Indy's offense is the exact kind of offense that eats against this defense - great run game, mobile QB, and guys who we typically struggle to cover in Pittman and Warren.  And they just improved the weakest part of their defense, which was already pretty solid before hand, with adding Sauce (even though they over paid).  And as much as people crapped on Sauce after the trade, a lot of people said the same thing when Rams traded for Ramsey who went on to be rejuvenated and helped them win a SB and was back to his early form.  So don't be surprised if Sauce looks more like his earlier self on a winning team after being stuck in football purgatory with the Jests.

 

But none of that really matters in this question - Its statistically less likely for us to make and win the Super Bowl having to play 3 playoff games with at least 2 on the road vs playing only 2 games, both at home.  There is no SoS that will erase the statistical advantage having to play 1 less game and playing all games at home. 

 

The mathematically correct answer is 1 seed, and we have proven we can beat both KC and the Ravens, so there should be no reason to fear them so much in the playoffs that we take on the risk of playing 3 games and at least 2 of them on the road. 

Because if they each win their division you’d likely play both (assuming they win). Ravens will be the 4 and Chiefs 2 or 3. There’s no reason to create a poll asking people to pick an option that would be easy to select. The entire point of the poll isn’t “which is liklier?” It’s “which option do you prefer?” 
 

Denver stinks. Lol, they’re the worst 8-2 I’ve ever seen. We’d beat them by 3 scores. We beat the Steelers 8 out of 10, New England 7 out of 10, Chargers without their OL 7 out of 10, Jags 8 out of 10. The Colts are the only one that scares me some (Texans too). If you can’t beat those teams though, you don’t deserve it. I think Ravens/Chiefs are both coin flips. That’s just my opinion. It looks like the group is pretty split.

Edited 2 hours ago by Kirby Jackson

[Ray Stonada]

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but to be the best you gotta beat the best.

 

Give me the 1 seed, and two home games, over three road playoff games.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Maybe I'm old fashioned, but to be the best you gotta beat the best.

 

Give me the 1 seed, and two home games, over three road playoff games.

Yea I think people are picturing how the broncos/steelers look now when they choose but I don’t really see the broncos holding off the chiefs without beating some good teams down the stretch.  Same goes for the Steelers and ravens 

 

the pats would be in that mix too who maybe would’ve beat us twice if we end up the 5 seed. The dynamics change a lot based on how teams got to certain win totals. If the pats lose the rematch to us but end up a win ahead I wouldn’t even think twice about possibly seeing them again 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Because if they each win their division you’d likely play both (assuming they win). Ravens will be the 4 and Chiefs 2 or 3. There’s no reason to create a poll asking people to pick an option that would be easy to select. The entire point of the poll isn’t “which is liklier?” It’s “which option do you prefer?” 
 

Denver stinks. Lol, they’re the worst 8-2 I’ve ever seen. We’d beat them by 3 scores. We beat the Steelers 8 out of 10, New England 7 out of 10, Chargers without their OL 7 out of 10, Jags 8 out of 10. The Colts are the only one that scares me some (Texans too). If you can’t beat those teams though, you don’t deserve it. I think Ravens/Chiefs are both coin flips. That’s just my opinion. It looks like the group is pretty split.

 

I get what you are trying to do - but there is no SoS (strength of schedule) you can create that offsets the massive advantage of the 1 seed.  The 1 seed since going to a 17 game season and adding more playoff teams has become a colossal advantage.  It was a big advantage before, but its colossal now.  

 

With the guys already playing an extra game in the regular season, getting the free pass to the 2nd round to let guys get healthy and also avoid any new injuries in the first round of the playoffs is massive.  Not to mention home field advantage.  Now apply that to actual Bills this year and it becomes miles apart - Bills final season in the stadium, so every home game could be our last game ever played there.  The energy is going to be something that can never be replicated again.  But - and maybe more importantly - not only does it give us time for guys to heal up who may be banged up, it gives us one more week to get Ed Oliver back.  And if we are going to face a team like Indy in 2nd round, being at home to disurpt and rattle Danny Dimes and have Ed Oliver back facing a tough Indy OL and run game is going to be massive.  

 

No disrespect, again I get what you are trying to do, but IMHO there is no path that is so much "easier" to offset the massive value of the 1 seed, not even if we were given the choice to see KC and Balt out of the playoffs all together if we gave up the 1 seed.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are trying to do - but there is no SoS (strength of schedule) you can create that offsets the massive advantage of the 1 seed.  The 1 seed since going to a 17 game season and adding more playoff teams has become a colossal advantage.  It was a big advantage before, but its colossal now.  

 

With the guys already playing an extra game in the regular season, getting the free pass to the 2nd round to let guys get healthy and also avoid any new injuries in the first round of the playoffs is massive.  Not to mention home field advantage.  Now apply that to actual Bills this year and it becomes miles apart - Bills final season in the stadium, so every home game could be our last game ever played there.  The energy is going to be something that can never be replicated again.  But - and maybe more importantly - not only does it give us time for guys to heal up who may be banged up, it gives us one more week to get Ed Oliver back.  And if we are going to face a team like Indy in 2nd round, being at home to disurpt and rattle Danny Dimes and have Ed Oliver back facing a tough Indy OL and run game is going to be massive.  

 

No disrespect, again I get what you are trying to do, but IMHO there is no path that is so much "easier" to offset the massive value of the 1 seed, not even if we were given the choice to see KC and Balt out of the playoffs all together if we gave up the 1 seed.

i don't think the 1 seed is the advantage you seem to, especially this year

 

final season in the stadium is fan talk tbh...players don't really care about that. we haven't shown that we're significantly stronger vs top AFC teams at home as opposed to on the road. what we have shown is an ability to smack second tier AFC teams in the playoffs so the option to avoid the stronger teams is the obvious choice

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are trying to do - but there is no SoS (strength of schedule) you can create that offsets the massive advantage of the 1 seed.  The 1 seed since going to a 17 game season and adding more playoff teams has become a colossal advantage.  It was a big advantage before, but its colossal now.  

 

With the guys already playing an extra game in the regular season, getting the free pass to the 2nd round to let guys get healthy and also avoid any new injuries in the first round of the playoffs is massive.  Not to mention home field advantage.  Now apply that to actual Bills this year and it becomes miles apart - Bills final season in the stadium, so every home game could be our last game ever played there.  The energy is going to be something that can never be replicated again.  But - and maybe more importantly - not only does it give us time for guys to heal up who may be banged up, it gives us one more week to get Ed Oliver back.  And if we are going to face a team like Indy in 2nd round, being at home to disurpt and rattle Danny Dimes and have Ed Oliver back facing a tough Indy OL and run game is going to be massive.  

 

No disrespect, again I get what you are trying to do, but IMHO there is no path that is so much "easier" to offset the massive value of the 1 seed, not even if we were given the choice to see KC and Balt out of the playoffs all together if we gave up the 1 seed.

Yea feels like people are in a bit of denial about how much dumb luck there is in a single game elimination football playoff.  Even if you’re a pretty big favorite in the road wildcard game it’s probably a 60/40  odds type situation that you entirely skip by getting a bye instead and who knows how the wear and tear of that game could effect the next game 

 

If pit keeps Baltimore out and ends up the ‘worst’ division winner I don’t think we’d be that big a favorite in that 4 vs 5 wildcard game tbh.  They would’ve had to have beaten a few good teams down the stretch..  of course if Baltimore just implodes and pit looks meh maybe the optics are different 

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are trying to do - but there is no SoS (strength of schedule) you can create that offsets the massive advantage of the 1 seed.  The 1 seed since going to a 17 game season and adding more playoff teams has become a colossal advantage.  It was a big advantage before, but its colossal now.  

 

With the guys already playing an extra game in the regular season, getting the free pass to the 2nd round to let guys get healthy and also avoid any new injuries in the first round of the playoffs is massive.  Not to mention home field advantage.  Now apply that to actual Bills this year and it becomes miles apart - Bills final season in the stadium, so every home game could be our last game ever played there.  The energy is going to be something that can never be replicated again.  But - and maybe more importantly - not only does it give us time for guys to heal up who may be banged up, it gives us one more week to get Ed Oliver back.  And if we are going to face a team like Indy in 2nd round, being at home to disurpt and rattle Danny Dimes and have Ed Oliver back facing a tough Indy OL and run game is going to be massive.  

 

No disrespect, again I get what you are trying to do, but IMHO there is no path that is so much "easier" to offset the massive value of the 1 seed, not even if we were given the choice to see KC and Balt out of the playoffs all together if we gave up the 1 seed.

Scenario A is a perfectly reasonable choice. I prefer B but not by a ton. I don’t see a scenario where anyone in the AFC but KC or Baltimore beats playoff Josh Allen. They’re the only teams with the firepower to keep up. I don’t see the Bills in the playoffs laying an egg like New England or Atlanta. The Colts are a little weird to me. They feel like they can match the physicality. I go back to though, “if Josh Allen and Daniel Jones square off in a must win game, Josh has a massive advantage.” 

3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea feels like people are in a bit of denial about how much dumb luck there is in a single game elimination football playoff.  Even if you’re a pretty big favorite in the road wildcard game it’s probably a 60/40  odds type situation that you entirely skip by getting a bye instead and who knows how the wear and tear of that game could effect the next game 

 

If pit keeps Baltimore out and ends up the ‘worst’ division winner I don’t think we’d be that big a favorite in that 4 vs 5 wildcard game tbh.  They would’ve had to have beaten a few good teams down the stretch..  of course if Baltimore just implodes and pit looks meh maybe the optics are different 

I think there’s a huge difference between “must win playoff games” vs. a Sunday afternoon in October. The Bills advantage over those teams that haven’t proven they can win those big games is LARGE. 

[Gregg]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If KC and Ravens are the betting favorite to win their division, then why are the only 2 scenarios ones where either both win the division or both miss the playoffs entirely?  Seems more plausible that 1 may win the division and the other a wildcard, both wildcards, or one makes the playoffs and one misses.  

 

But besides that, I don't think the path is as easy as you think it is outside KC and Ravens.  Denver has a legit defense and a mobile QB, things that have caused problems for the Bills before.  Indy's offense is the exact kind of offense that eats against this defense - great run game, mobile QB, and guys who we typically struggle to cover in Pittman and Warren.  And they just improved the weakest part of their defense, which was already pretty solid before hand, with adding Sauce (even though they over paid).  And as much as people crapped on Sauce after the trade, a lot of people said the same thing when Rams traded for Ramsey who went on to be rejuvenated and helped them win a SB and was back to his early form.  So don't be surprised if Sauce looks more like his earlier self on a winning team after being stuck in football purgatory with the Jests.

 

But none of that really matters in this question - Its statistically less likely for us to make and win the Super Bowl having to play 3 playoff games with at least 2 on the road vs playing only 2 games, both at home.  There is no SoS that will erase the statistical advantage having to play 1 less game and playing all games at home. 

 

The mathematically correct answer is 1 seed, and we have proven we can beat both KC and the Ravens, so there should be no reason to fear them so much in the playoffs that we take on the risk of playing 3 games and at least 2 of them on the road. 

 

Are they the betting favorites to win the respective divisions. I know the Broncos offense looked like garbage last night, but they are 8-2 and the Chargers who already beat the Chiefs are 6-3 with KC 3rd in the division at 5-4. The Ravens at 3-5 are two games back of the Steelers 5-3. I think the Ravens have the better shot especially if they sweep the Steelers. The Chiefs IMHO have to go the WC route. I don't they win the AFCW this year.

[LABILLBACKER]

#1 seed

If we're the 1 seed there's a very good chance we were able to rest key starters week 18. Then we turn around and rest the entire roster which we all know will have some injury issues.  Historically we've beaten Baltimore/ Lamar in the playoffs. And I'm confident if McD is calling the defensive plays, he'll find a path to stopping Henry. 

 

Being at home will help. We don't deserve going to a SB if we can't finally slay our nemesis.  So for me the issue of keeping most of your 53 healthy and at home is paramount. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Scenario A is a perfectly reasonable choice. I prefer B but not by a ton. I don’t see a scenario where anyone in the AFC but KC or Baltimore beats playoff Josh Allen. They’re the only teams with the firepower to keep up. I don’t see the Bills in the playoffs laying an egg like New England or Atlanta. The Colts are a little weird to me. They feel like they can match the physicality. I go back to though, “if Josh Allen and Daniel Jones square off in a must win game, Josh has a massive advantage.” 

I think there’s a huge difference between “must win playoff games” vs. a Sunday afternoon in October. The Bills advantage over those teams that haven’t proven they can win those big games is LARGE. 

I think for me i gotta know what win total teams got to really think about the probabilities. Like if pit keeps Baltimore out and is 11-6 with wins over Detroit and the ravens down the stretch we probably won’t feel great going in there on the road when that moment comes.  I don’t expect this part of it to be the case but they could even beat us in the regular season.  If they limp in I can definitely get behind the layup game type vibe.  Same kinda deal with the broncos although we don’t play them.

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

Went with the #1 seed. The Chiefs and Ravens would be tough outs in playoffs but in OP I would like the Bills chances even though they would be tough games. The Bills have never won a road playoff game with McDermott. So, give me homefield advantage for the Bills.

The issue has been injuries more often than not when the Bills get eliminated from the playoffs. The 1 seed guarantees 2 weeks of rest. I am taking that every… single… time… Edit: potentially 3 weeks of rest if they have the seeding wrapped up before the final week, but that’s a mega long shot. 

 

People want to play too much with the scenarios. Mathematically the Bills have a higher chance of winning a SB as a 1 seed. They are going to have to beat multiple elite teams to do that in either scenario. There’s no way around it. i’d rather have that extra time off in that case. 

Edited 1 hour ago by ChronicAndKnuckles

[agilen]

This team is architected to win games in Buffalo in January. It’s not built to win a shootout at SoFi. Gimme #1 seed and a game script just like we saw on Sunday every time.