JBI$111 Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 6 hours ago, mannc said: Missed tackles are a symptom…the cause is smaller, slower, athletically inferior players who get to the ball late and are physically out-manned when they do arrive… And the reason for that cause is horrific drafting over many many years since Beane has been here! That includes picking the wrong people a large majority of the time and too many of them, especially on the defensive side of the ball, missing on people that appeared to be obvious except in Beane's mind (and his talent evaluators) and there to be picked, but were not... and being on the wrong side of almost every trade or contract! 1 Quote
3rdand12 Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 8 hours ago, billsfan714 said: I said it another thread, I was watching Belichick talking last year about us he said our secondary was slow. I think BB knows what he's talking about when he talks defense. I'll add Taylor Rapp ran a 4.77 at his pro day coming out of college---slow. The Schwartz numbers are even more impressive when you think about he wasn't working with a great offense and a lot of leads. A lot of sacks come when a team is trying to come from behind and needs to pass. Wide Nine baby. 😋 McDermott needs to embrace a tweaked philosophy, considering the players they are stuck with. Was calling for it before the draft and asking for honest 1 tech early and perhaps even a Nose tackle from the late rounds Some wrinkles for this season up front on D Bet it would have slowed the run game down Quote
folz Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, BeastMaster said: McDermotts defense has always been a complete doormat once they face a legitimate offense and QB in the playoffs This isn't going to change until he changes First you have to define what you mean by a legit offense and legit QB. Do you mean top half of the league? Top 10? Elite/Top 3-5? I would say that in the McDermott era, we have only played one bad offense and 3 to 4 bad QBs in the playoffs (14 games total). Here are the teams we faced and their league-wide PF ranking that year: TEAM POINTS FOR RANK QUATERBACK JAX 5th Bortles HOU 14th Stroud IND 9th Rivers BAL 7th Jackson K.C. 6th Mahomes N.E. 6th Jones K.C. 4th Mahomes MIA 11th Thompson CIN 8th Burrow Pitt 23rd Pickett K.C. 15th Mahomes DEN 10th Nix BAL 2nd Jackson K.C. 15th Mahomes Ok, I think we can automatically rule out Jax, Miami, and Pitt (due to the QBs alone). And let's eliminate Stroud with a 14th ranking and Jones with a 6th ranking (as I assume those QBs would also not meet your criteria). How about Nix, Rivers, and Jackson. Are they considered legit QBs? I would say so, and they all had top 10 scoring offenses. So, that gives us nine games vs. legit offenses and QBs (top 10 that season/legit QB---KC x4, Bal x2, Ind, Den, Cin). In those games, the Bills opponents have averaged 22 points per game. For reference, over the last 5 years, the average points scored by a playoff team is 21.84 points/game. If you take K.C. out of the picture for the moment, that leaves 5 games vs. legit offenses and QBs. The Bills opponents averaged 17.2 points per game in those contests. So, it seems to me that you really mean when the Bills face elite offenses with a generational QB (and weapons: Hill, Kelce, Chase, Higgins) they have been a doormat. But even that doesn't hold true unless you choose not to count Lamar Jackson and Baltimore as legit offenses and QBs. If I don't include Denver and Indy---just KC, Cinn, and Balt (as legit), those teams combined have averaged 27.7 points vs. the Bills in the playoffs. But again, if I take out K.C. and just look at vs. Bal and Cin, those teams averaged 18.3 points vs. the Bills. Oh, and by the way, almost every defense that faces a generational QB with an elite offense will tend to fare worse, and most often, look like a doormat. That's what great offenses do to most teams. It's not like the Bills are alone in struggling against elite offenses. I tend to agree that the current issues are more with personnel than scheme or McD himself. Though I am not opposed to tweaking the scheme or whatever needs to be done with the guys they have and will be getting back. 2 Quote
ganesh Posted 58 minutes ago Posted 58 minutes ago 7 hours ago, folz said: I hear this all the time that we get smoked in the playoffs. So, let me just add a little perspective. In 10 playoff games (in the McD era) vs. teams not named the Chiefs, the Bills defense is giving up an average of 18.3 points in the playoffs. So, not everyone is smoking us, it is really just the Chiefs. Oh and by the way, you do realize that K.C. is a dynasty team with a generational offense correct? In the last 3 games vs. the Chiefs, at the end of regulation, K.C. was up a combined 6 points (over 3 games). So, they have been 2 points better than us in each of our last three playoff matchups (with one OT game, and one last second missed FG). I mean how close can you get to beating one of the best teams the league has seen. Obviously that doesn't speak to how well the defense did or did not play, but we are literally three plays away from being 3-1 vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs [and that doesn't even take into account that the refs heavily influenced two of the 4 playoff games vs. the Chiefs---2020 and 2024; or injuries...we were pretty banged up (worse than the Chiefs) for at least two of those four contests]. And you almost have to separate the Bills vs. the Chiefs from a normal playoff game (on both sides). I mean, do you think that the Chiefs defense sucks and falls apart in the playoffs? In the Mahomes era: Chiefs have allowed the Bills an average of 28.25 points per game in the playoffs (4 games). Chiefs vs. all other playoff teams averaged 22.88 points allowed (17 games). Is that difference because the Chiefs defense sucks in the playoffs (obviously not), or is it because Buffalo is also a special offense that they have a harder time stopping? The Chiefs are giving up 5.37 points more to the Bills than to their average playoff opponent. The Bills score 1 point higher vs. the Chiefs than their playoff average. The Chiefs score 2.5 points more vs. the Bills than their playoff average. And that 1.5 points is about what we are losing to them by (2 points/last 3 playoff games). But, the margin is razor-thin. And, if the Chiefs are holding other teams to 3, 10, 17, 22, 24 points per playoff game, then they can obviously take their foot off the gas on offense. Run long-sustained drives, get into 4-minute offense early, pull your starters, etc. There is no need for the Chiefs to score 36-42 points vs. those teams. Yet, against the Bills, the Chiefs know they are going to need to score at least 30 points and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, because Josh is going to keep coming. So, to continually say that the Bills defense has been worse vs. the Chiefs than other teams, or allowed them to score more than their season average, or whatever, really doesn't prove anything to me. They know they have to do that against the Bills or they will get beat. They just don't always need to pour it on against other teams. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs have averaged 30 points per playoff game (21 playoff games). In the four playoff games vs. the Bills, they have averaged 34.75 (and that includes one OT game---if you only take regulation, then the Bills have allowed the Chiefs 32.5 points/playoff game---only 2.5 points above their average). How much of that is because they have to score more against the Bills, rather than all of those other defenses being superior to the Bills' defense. 12 of KC's 21 playoff games (57%), their opponents scored 24 points or fewer. In 8 of their 21 playoff games (38%), their opponents scored fewer than 21 points. They haven't needed to score more against other teams---doesn't necessarily mean that Buffalo's defense is worse than those other teams. Now, I'm not saying that our defense has been great vs, K.C. in the playoffs, but it's also true that K.C. scores a lot no matter who they play (when they need to). In 21 playoff games, the Chiefs have only scored below 22 points twice (9.5% of the time)---to Tampa Bay in the 2020 SB, and to Baltimore in the 2023 AFC Conf Championship. (You could add vs. Philly in the 2024 SB too, they scored 22 points, but it was in garbage time). So, only 3 teams (in 21 games) have really stopped the Chiefs offense. in 12 of 21 games, the Chiefs have scored between 27 and 51 points (57% of their playoff games). This idea that our defense is so much worse than other teams vs. K.C. doesn't seem to hold up to scrutiny when you look at all of the context surrounding the stats. Also, the idea that we get smoked by everyone in the playoffs is also a fallacy. It really is just the Chiefs, and as I said, there are many reasons for that (beyond them just being a generational/historical offense). As to this year, yeah, the defense does not look great right now. The pass rush has actually improved, but the run defense and tackling has been horrible (and I too am concerned about the secondary). But, we need this defense to be at its peak come playoff time, not in weeks 5 and 6. And there are a few reasons at least to think they can still get better as the year goes on. It is a bit of a wait and see right now...will Hairston, Hoect, Ogunjobi, Milano, etc. make a difference, will the young guys improve, will the new guys start to gel better, etc. But the idea that McD is not a good defensive coach or his scheme sucks seems too simplistic an answer when we have statistically and consistently been one of the best defenses in most categories (points, yards, sacks, turnovers) over the last 8 years. And that they have actually fared well (18.3 points allowed) in the playoffs vs. all teams not named the Chiefs. Everyone's defense is going to do worse against the Chiefs than if playing 90% of the rest of the league. And no other team has had to face the Chiefs more in the playoffs (4 times) than we have (so, again, comparing our playoff stats vs.other teams' playoff stats, etc. is really an apples to oranges comparison). I'm not giving up on this team or this defense yet. Hopefully they have used the BYE week to start getting straight. The Bills have kept the games against the Chiefs close only because of Allen and his heroics. Otherwise, this offense is nothing and will get blown away easily as we saw the last few weeks when Allen himself does not play well. You measure a coach's success against the best of the best and in that department McDermott and his defense has MOSTLY come back small. They have not been able to get over the hump. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted 32 minutes ago Posted 32 minutes ago (edited) 11 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said: Yeah, for how much hate he got here (some of it justified) he really was a key component in the middle. It's unfortunate that Chicago gave him such a huge contract and we lost him. There's a rumor that in 2023 the NY State Attorney General's office was investigating the Bills for violating child labor laws... and that's what caused the team to allow Tremaine to leave the state and sign with the Bears. Edited 32 minutes ago by Sierra Foothills Quote
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