Evaulation (of this team) after a quarter of season gone

[BuffaloBillyG]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The board's fanbase certainly has some issues.  Fire McD (highest  win % of any Bills HC).  Trade Cook and install Davis.  Fire Beane because his drafting stinks (I assume that means besides Allen, Cook, Brown, Benford, Bernard, Shakir, Torrence, etc...)

 

The evaluation of this season to date is the Bills are 4-0 with 2 divisional wins and a strong conference win.  The Bills have scored 30+ every game, lead the NFL in rushing yards (654) and TDs with 9.  Our 16 offensive TDs are tied for 1st with Det (Det has a def/ST TD).  The Bills are also 7th in passing yards with 996.

 

On defense the Bills lead the NFL in least amount of passing yards allowed at 564 with an excellent 8.8 yards per reception (3rd best in the league).  We are getting stomped by the run. We have allowed 657 yards on the ground for 6 yards a carry.  The Baltimore game skews the data with their 8.2 yards per rush that game.  Our 290 yards allowed per game is the 10th best in the league.  Our 22.5 pts allowed per game is 17th.  

 

Our winning margin YTD is 10.8 up from 9 last season and ranks 3rd in the NFL.   Basically the defense is mediocre (but surprisingly solid against the pass) and our offense is historically good.  

What skews it even further is we have given up 178 rushing yards to QBs through 4 games and one of those games is 10 yards to Tua. The other 3 games have been 70 to Lamar, and 49 each to Fields and Rattler. That 44.5 yards a game to QBs that pads those rush numbers. The total of 657 rush yards equals out to just over 165 years a game given up.

 

That leaves about 122 yards per game given up to RBs. That's still high but again, as you pointed out week 1 skews it a bit with Henry exploding for 169. They actually contained Breece Hall well and don't do awful against Achane.

[Fleezoid]

I mentioned this last night, but I think we have to accept the fact that Milano will not be available when we get to the stretch run and in to the playoffs. 

 

Hopefully the run D gets better when the suspended guys are back and maybe Walker continues to play well

 

I had a thought last night that perhaps the offense seems pretty basic and looks a little bland is because they're just trying to get through these seemingly easy stretch of games. Hopefully Brady opens things up when games are needed for the 1-seed and in to the playoffs. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 minutes ago, Fleezoid said:

I mentioned this last night, but I think we have to accept the fact that Milano will not be available when we get to the stretch run and in to the playoffs. 

 

Hopefully the run D gets better when the suspended guys are back and maybe Walker continues to play well

 

I had a thought last night that perhaps the offense seems pretty basic and looks a little bland is because they're just trying to get through these seemingly easy stretch of games. Hopefully Brady opens things up when games are needed for the 1-seed and in to the playoffs. 

With how bad our playoff injury luck has been it’s almost better that Milano/oliver got hurt early in the year haha less possible games for them to get injured in later on 😂

 

the depth does seem mostly better which is encouraging and the DE/DT depth is gonna improve in a few weeks.  I don’t think we have a ‘one injury can knock us down from a great player to a terrible one’ anywhere like the benford/elam debacle last year.  

Edited September 29 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Orlando Buffalo]

Defensively my only real concern is the tackling, that has to improve. If that improved out defense would be lights out. Offensively I am thrilled they are using the 13 formation, with three tight ends, because I suggested that as a possibly and was told by several people it would not work. 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Because we haven't won the SB. It's that simple. Fans would still complain if they had won it. But it wouldn't be a large majority.

 

The biggest fear is that the defense is going to get obliterated by a great team in the postseason. Which has happened more than a few times. Thus far, I've seen nothing to show that will not occur again.

 

A majority of Bills fans aren't complaining about the Bills winning.  I'm not sure that a majority of posters on TSW are complaining, although there's a significant of segment of complainers and/or whiners whose constant noise makes it seem that there's more complainers than there really are.

 

2 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

This team is on cruise control playing to get through without the injuries at key spots that we have. I never get the feeling that we are going to lose in any of these games this year. I used to have this in the SB days with Kelly. It's back. This Bills team may look "sloppy" at times but that's football. Let's enjoy each win boys because they are HARD to earn each week. The Pats game this coming Sunday will be a great game. Go Bills!

 

Well said, sir.  

 

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

And 3rd week in a row of not allowing 300 yards to an opponent, in which they have averaged 243 yards given up and 16.5 PPG.  People acting like we are giving up 400+ yards and 35 PPG like we are the Ravens D need to get an actual clue.

 

The Ravens are actually giving up 406.75 yards and only 33.25 points per game but who's quibbling?

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The board's fanbase certainly has some issues.  Fire McD (highest  win % of any Bills HC).  Trade Cook and install Davis.  Fire Beane because his drafting stinks (I assume that means besides Allen, Cook, Brown, Benford, Bernard, Shakir, Torrence, etc...)

 

The evaluation of this season to date is the Bills are 4-0 with 2 divisional wins and a strong conference win.  The Bills have scored 30+ every game, lead the NFL in rushing yards (654) and TDs with 9.  Our 16 offensive TDs are tied for 1st with Det (Det has a def/ST TD).  The Bills are also 7th in passing yards with 996.

 

On defense the Bills lead the NFL in least amount of passing yards allowed at 564 with an excellent 8.8 yards per reception (3rd best in the league).  We are getting stomped by the run. We have allowed 657 yards on the ground for 6 yards a carry.  The Baltimore game skews the data with their 8.2 yards per rush that game.  Our 290 yards allowed per game is the 10th best in the league.  Our 22.5 pts allowed per game is 17th.  

 

Our winning margin YTD is 10.8 up from 9 last season and ranks 3rd in the NFL.   Basically the defense is mediocre (but surprisingly solid against the pass) and our offense is historically good.  

 

Don't confuse the endless negative narratives with facts.   

 

The Bills suck on defense!!!  We're doomed!!!!!   //sarcasm

[mjt328]

My evaluation after a quarter of the season...

 

The offense is scoring 33.3 ppg (#2 in the NFL), has put up 30+ in every game, and only has one turnover.  Yet it somehow feels like they are still leaving plenty of meat on the bone.  Joe Brady's calling has been pretty conservative, outside of the 4th Quarter of the Ravens game.  We basically ran out the second half with backups against the Jets.  There have been stretches of sloppy play with drops and penalties killing drives.  

 

It's crazy to think that Josh Allen has quite possibly been the best QB in the NFL so far, and it almost seems like he's holding back.  James Cook has quite possibly been the best RB in the NFL, and there have been a half-dozen shoestring tackles where he's almost broken long touchdown runs.  If this group can start hitting on all cylinders, no scoring record is safe.

 

The defense has been the complete opposite.  They have been awful in all phases of the game, and if not for a couple important game-saving turnovers (Derrick Henry fumble, Terrell Bernard pick, Cole Bishop one-handed INT), things could somehow be much worse.  Some want to blame it on injuries or rookies, but even our dependable veterans are looking like garbage.

• Our number-one focus in the offseason was upgrading the D-Line, and it's been a massive disappointment in every way.  Every QB has 3-4 seconds to throw.  Joey Bosa is the only one getting the occasional pressure, and he offsets it by constantly losing outside contain and letting up a bigger play.  Against the run, they are getting blown off the ball and filling the wrong gaps. 
• Tackling has been about the worst I've ever witnessed on a Bills team, and that's really saying something.  Slow to the ball.  Getting run over and pushed backwards.  Whiffing and getting juked in the open field.  Falling off ballcarriers.  It almost looks like a team tired of injuries and trying to preserve itself for the postseason.
• Coverage has also been bad.  The secondary seems confused before the snap.  They are giving too much space to receivers off the line, and then leaving guys wide open.  The times they have been in position, they can't knock the ball away.  Even Christian Benford looks lost out there.

 

Bottom line, we are probably looking at the best Offense during the Josh Allen-era... combined with the worst Defense during the Josh Allen-era.  Yes, that has resulted in a 4-0 record so far.  But much of that is due to the cupcake schedule we were fortunate to pull.  We have all seen other teams roll through the regular season with 14 or 15 wins (see Chiefs/Vikings last year), knowing they really weren't as good as the standing showed.  I don't want to be that team. 

 

The Bills staff needs to be working overtime to figure out what is wrong with this defense.  Is it the personnel?  Is it the scheme?  Is it the coaching staff?  We still have some time before the trade deadline to make a move.  We could still pull a Ken Dorsey on Bobby Babich.  What we can't do is be overconfident because of the record and then ignore the glaring flaws staring us in the face.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

My evaluation after a quarter of the season...

 

The offense is scoring 33.3 ppg (#2 in the NFL), has put up 30+ in every game, and only has one turnover.  Yet it somehow feels like they are still leaving plenty of meat on the bone.  Joe Brady's calling has been pretty conservative, outside of the 4th Quarter of the Ravens game.  We basically ran out the second half with backups against the Jets.  There have been stretches of sloppy play with drops and penalties killing drives.  

 

It's crazy to think that Josh Allen has quite possibly been the best QB in the NFL so far, and it almost seems like he's holding back.  James Cook has quite possibly been the best RB in the NFL, and there have been a half-dozen shoestring tackles where he's almost broken long touchdown runs.  If this group can start hitting on all cylinders, no scoring record is safe.

 

The defense has been the complete opposite.  They have been awful in all phases of the game, and if not for a couple important game-saving turnovers (Derrick Henry fumble, Terrell Bernard pick, Cole Bishop one-handed INT), things could somehow be much worse.  Some want to blame it on injuries or rookies, but even our dependable veterans are looking like garbage.

• Our number-one focus in the offseason was upgrading the D-Line, and it's been a massive disappointment in every way.  Every QB has 3-4 seconds to throw.  Joey Bosa is the only one getting the occasional pressure, and he offsets it by constantly losing outside contain and letting up a bigger play.  Against the run, they are getting blown off the ball and filling the wrong gaps. 
• Tackling has been about the worst I've ever witnessed on a Bills team, and that's really saying something.  Slow to the ball.  Getting run over and pushed backwards.  Whiffing and getting juked in the open field.  Falling off ballcarriers.  It almost looks like a team tired of injuries and trying to preserve itself for the postseason.
• Coverage has also been bad.  The secondary seems confused before the snap.  They are giving too much space to receivers off the line, and then leaving guys wide open.  The times they have been in position, they can't knock the ball away.  Even Christian Benford looks lost out there.

 

Bottom line, we are probably looking at the best Offense during the Josh Allen-era... combined with the worst Defense during the Josh Allen-era.  Yes, that has resulted in a 4-0 record so far.  But much of that is due to the cupcake schedule we were fortunate to pull.  We have all seen other teams roll through the regular season with 14 or 15 wins (see Chiefs/Vikings last year), knowing they really weren't as good as the standing showed.  I don't want to be that team. 

 

The Bills staff needs to be working overtime to figure out what is wrong with this defense.  Is it the personnel?  Is it the scheme?  Is it the coaching staff?  We still have some time before the trade deadline to make a move.  We could still pull a Ken Dorsey on Bobby Babich.  What we can't do is be overconfident because of the record and then ignore the glaring flaws staring us in the face.

 

 

For a team that can't rush the passer - why do we have the fewest passing yards allowed in the league?  

• 9 sacks against 103 pass attempts is an 8% sack rate - the league average QB was sacked on 6.87% of their dropbacks in 2024. 
• 194 air yards completed across 4 games, and 64 total completed passes so... the average completed pass has traveled 3 yards.  The lowest in the league last year was 4.1 yards by Tua.  
• They have allowed 243 YAC, which is an average of 3.8 YAC/completion.  The lowest QB in the league averaged 4 YAC/completion in 2024.  
• Buffalo has the #1 NY/A in the league.  This is not affected by volume.  (Passing yards - Sack yards)/(Pass attempts+Sacks)

From an eye test perspective, i agree the tackling has been poor.  I'd imagine some gap assignments have been missed by the defensive line, especially in the baltimore game.  They seem to struggle to bottle up athletic QBs, which has always been an issue (and shouldn't since we rarely play man and our guys have eyes on QB quite often). 

 

But to say they aren't getting any pressure is just not true.  Considering how insanely close to the LOS the average completion is, pressure is just not really going to come on those.  

[ganesh]

5 hours ago, WNYFAN1 said:

What makes me nervous is the Bills first four games were against pretty horrible competition, and it looks like even Baltimore isn't that good. And 3/4 at home. How much did this actually tell us? 

Not worried about that.  The Bills play the schedule they are given 

5 hours ago, yall said:

Is this AI workslop or an actual post?

This time I wrote it all by myself. Becoming a mini chatGpT

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Are you kidding me? 

 

The day the Bills finally get to and win a Super Bowl, this forum will be LITTERED with post that are titled things like "I know we won the Super Bowl....but".

 

People will complain that while they did win, the way they won "isn't sustainable". People will say that winning one is great, but if they don't fire McDermott they will never win one again. This fan base is broken 

This is like my colleague st work longtime ago; when our CEO announced our company being acquired and all employees making money - my colleague complained that now he had to pay MORE taxes to the IRS !!!!

2 hours ago, nuklz2594 said:

DC Babich is nothing special. Hoping if we get healthy, the defense will be better than average

We had a chance to hire Fangio last year 

[R.O.]

Truthfully, McDermott needs to take over defensive play-calling to show Babich how it is done in his defence.

[gjv]

Unless the defense takes a positive turn, Our chances of making it to the Super Bowl will require Josh and company to score north of 30 points game in and game out.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 minutes ago, R.O. said:

Truthfully, McDermott needs to take over defensive play-calling to show Babich how it is done in his defence.

 

I think he'd need to take over at Weakside linebacker if he wanted to really fix the mistakes.  

[CircleTheWagons99]

Im just hoping that if the defense keeps playing like crap during the season they are going to turn it ON for the playoffs and not like the last few years where they turn it OFF during the playoffs. 

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The record is 4-0 and 1 of only 2 unbeaten teams left in the NFL.

 

That's the only evaluation that matters. Anything else is meaningless until the playoffs get here.

weird to even be on a message board if the only thing that matters is the record. Seems easy to keep track of without the help of strangers.

[Big Turk]

Just now, NoSaint said:

weird to even be on a message board if the only thing that matters is the record. Seems easy to keep track of without the help of strangers.

 

People like to obsess over meaningless details...just like they do in most other aspects of their life.

[NoSaint]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

People like to obsess over meaningless details...just like they do in most other aspects of their life.

so it’s more the opportunity to provide social commentary that keeps you coming back here

[SectionC3]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The defense is just bad. Bad fundamentals, bad situationally, inconsistent pass rush. The one thing is HAS done well is splash plays. But that's a tough way to live week to week. It simply has to be better. I'd be willing to consider a coordinator change but I doubt it happens. 

Did the TV broadcast indicate whether McD handled playcalling in the second half today?  I sit on the opposite side of the stadium, and I don’t take binoculars in.  BUT, from my distant perch, I saw him routinely stationed about 20 yards on the defensive side of the LOS with what appeared to be a play sheet when NO had the ball.  My impression was that he was running the D. 

46 minutes ago, R.O. said:

Truthfully, McDermott needs to take over defensive play-calling to show Babich how it is done in his defence.

See above. 

[Big Turk]

Since the Bills are the 2nd best "Shnowplow" team in the NFL, they need to have a counter like the Eagles just showed for teams...would have been pretty helpful in the Chiefs game last year, IMO...

 

 

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, T.E. said:

You can only play the teams on your schedule. They're winning, and although I personally think they look pretty sloppy across the board, you might as well get that out of the way now rather than in Dec/Jan.

 

The rest of the NFL should be terrified the Bills make scoring 30 points look as effortless as walking to check your mailbox at the end of the driveway 

[T.E.]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The rest of the NFL should be terrified the Bills make scoring 30 points look as effortless as walking to check your mailbox at the end of the driveway 

It's insane, when you think about it. The offense barely has any rhythm, they can't scheme receivers open, and they still get their points. Sky is the limit if they can figure out how to clean things up.