Will we see analytics take over more of the last 2 minutes of the game?

[Another Fan]

This is where I'm going with this......

 

Week 1 the announcers seemed to think it was dumb that Ravens player tried tackling Coleman at the 10 yard line with like 30 seconds left.  Well notably Collinsworth.  Let the Bills score then the Ravens can at least get a chance to get the ball back even if they are down by a touchdown.  

 

 

The Jets game today as well...   I kind of couldn't help on that blocked field goal that wound up in a touchdown if that Jet would have been better off taking a dive at the 10 yard line with like 2 minutes left down 6.  Then just take it for there.  I mean the way the Bucs came right back and won it anyway.

 

 

I know this thought process seems a bit out there but with the kickoffs coming out to the 35 yard line now and how offensive friendly the league is......   Can you see stuff like this happening?  

Edited September 22 by Another Fan

[ticketssince61]

40 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

 

 

 

The Jets game today as well...   I kind of couldn't help on that blocked field goal that wound up in a touchdown if that Jet would have been better off taking a dive at the 10 yard line with like 2 minutes left down 6.  Then just take it for there.  I mean the way the Bucs came right back and won it anyway.

 

 

 

They needed a TD to win ... not a FG. 

[Another Fan]

2 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

They needed a TD to win ... not a FG. 

Still.  In retrospect it might have been in their best interest for that player to go down at the 5 yard line then take their chances trying to get in the end zone.  While taking time off the clock

 

I could see more stuff like this happening going forward kind of thing....

 

With touchbacks coming out to the 35 yard line and field goals kickers with increasingly stronger legs 

[Mikie2times]

I don’t think these are best examples OP, just because they’re in the moment plays. But I do think we will start to see teams throwing more when a team has two or three timeouts. Run, Run, Pass, is how the Ravens ultimately lost (many things but that was one). It’s how the Cardinals lost today. Run your damn offense.  3rd and long with your opponent short two timeouts is not a victory in that situation. It’s exactly what the defense wants. 

[Another Fan]

11 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t think these are best examples OP, just because they’re in the moment plays. But I do think we will start to see teams throwing more when a team has two or three timeouts. Run, Run, Pass, is how the Ravens ultimately lost (many things but that was one). It’s how the Cardinals lost today. Run your damn offense.  3rd and long with your opponent short two timeouts is not a victory in that situation. It’s exactly what the defense wants. 

I agree they were very in the moments plays....  at the same time though with more and more analysis and probabilities going into these games...  it wouldn't surprise me if in the not too near future coaches and players have more general awareness of this in the moment toward the end of games 

[djp14150]

54 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

This is where I'm going with this......

 

Week 1 the announcers seemed to think it was dumb that Ravens player tried tackling Coleman at the 10 yard line with like 30 seconds left.  Well notably Collinsworth.  Let the Bills score then the Ravens can at least get a chance to get the ball back even if they are down by a touchdown.  

 

 

The Jets game today as well...   I kind of couldn't help on that blocked field goal that wound up in a touchdown if that Jet would have been better off taking a dive at the 10 yard line with like 2 minutes left down 6.  Then just take it for there.  I mean the way the Bucs came right back and won it anyway.

 

 

I know this thought process seems a bit out there but with the kickoffs coming out to the 35 yard line now and how offensive friendly the league is......   Can you see stuff like this happening?  

 

in another game today….

 

Houston- Jacksonville which was tied 10-10 under 2 to go , Jacksonville had a long pass play getting them to a 1st and goal just inside the 10 with around 1:48 to go.  Next play Houston let them score a TD.  Houston had only 2 TO left before the play.  If they stopped them on 2 plays then a run, thry were looking at down 3+ with around 45 seconds left after the kick off and no time outs left.

 

i recall another game where they let them score, even though the score put them up 2 scores, it saved time where a comeback could be possible.
 

Say it’s 4 minutes left, you have 2 TO and the 2 min warning. They have 1st and goal from the 5.

 

option 1 you burn 2 TOs, hold them to a FG, you get the ball back with 3 min, you need a score+ onside kick and then score.

 

ootion 2 you let them score going up by 14 with 4 left. You have the ogpffense to score in 90 or so seconds, then KO and you have 2 TO+2 min warning to stop them and get the ball back to score.

 

obviously the probability odds are far better in option 2.

 

 

[djp14150]

30 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

They needed a TD to win ... not a FG. 

 

yes. Players aren’t knowing or thinking of that since this was a special team return.

 

yes ideally they go down around the 15. For e Tampa to use their final 2 time outs, get a 1st inside the 5, then score a TD with under 30 seconds left increases the odds of winning the game than the team having 1:40 or so left and 2 time outs and only need a FG to win

[dave mcbride]

Happened last week with Houston too. The Texans clearly let Chubb score because otherwise they had zero chance. 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

Still.  In retrospect it might have been in their best interest for that player to go down at the 5 yard line then take their chances trying to get in the end zone.  While taking time off the clock

 

I could see more stuff like this happening going forward kind of thing....

 

With touchbacks coming out to the 35 yard line and field goals kickers with increasingly stronger legs 

NFL teams don’t take points off the board if they need them to win.

 

not every team has a Josh Allen where 3-4 plays within the 10 almost always equals a TD.

[Another Fan]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

NFL teams don’t take points off the board if they need them to win.

 

not every team has a Josh Allen where 3-4 plays within the 10 almost always equals a TD.

But if you're even giving a team down 2 a chance to score with say 2 minutes left......  odds are even the average team will.  

 

I could see going forward play calling being affected 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t think these are best examples OP, just because they’re in the moment plays. But I do think we will start to see teams throwing more when a team has two or three timeouts. Run, Run, Pass, is how the Ravens ultimately lost (many things but that was one). It’s how the Cardinals lost today. Run your damn offense.  3rd and long with your opponent short two timeouts is not a victory in that situation. It’s exactly what the defense wants. 

Exactly. Brady and Belichick showed how to kill the clock with under 5 min to play with the lead. Use play action pass and dink and dunk them.  Keep your routes away from the sideline. Truest your MVP QB to make a good easy throw or tuck and run it.   

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, Another Fan said:

But if you're even giving a team down 2 a chance to score with say 2 minutes left......  odds are even the average team will.  

 

I could see going forward play calling being affected 

Teams going against offenses like Allen or mzhomes will fo things like that. Just like underdog teams will take chances like going for e late instead of XP to tie. 

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, Another Fan said:

But if you're even giving a team down 2 a chance to score with say 2 minutes left......  odds are even the average team will.  

 

I could see going forward play calling being affected 

The Jets example, they were not down 2. They were down 6.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t think these are best examples OP, just because they’re in the moment plays. But I do think we will start to see teams throwing more when a team has two or three timeouts. Run, Run, Pass, is how the Ravens ultimately lost (many things but that was one). It’s how the Cardinals lost today. Run your damn offense.  3rd and long with your opponent short two timeouts is not a victory in that situation. It’s exactly what the defense wants. 

 

It is a coaching decision the Bills got right in the Ravens win. After the big play to Palmer the Bills needed one first down to make sure the game ended on a FG. They passed on first down, complete to Coleman. Maybe they got lucky with the Raven tackling him, but in that scenario the best down to pass on is first down. 

9 hours ago, Another Fan said:

This is where I'm going with this......

 

Week 1 the announcers seemed to think it was dumb that Ravens player tried tackling Coleman at the 10 yard line with like 30 seconds left.  Well notably Collinsworth.  Let the Bills score then the Ravens can at least get a chance to get the ball back even if they are down by a touchdown.  

 

 

The Jets game today as well...   I kind of couldn't help on that blocked field goal that wound up in a touchdown if that Jet would have been better off taking a dive at the 10 yard line with like 2 minutes left down 6.  Then just take it for there.  I mean the way the Bucs came right back and won it anyway.

 

 

I know this thought process seems a bit out there but with the kickoffs coming out to the 35 yard line now and how offensive friendly the league is......   Can you see stuff like this happening?  

 

I think where analytics can definitely do more is 4th quarter clock management really throughout the whole quarter. I am constantly amazed by teams getting the ball with say 10 minutes left down a score and taking a 6 minute drive where they are not hurrying between plays to score a TD. What you have just done by that is guaranteed that unless your D can make a stop you have lost the game. Because the opposition can time a 4 minute drive to score right at the end and leave you basically no time.

 

Once its 4th Quarter you should be managing the clock on every down.

[Billsatlastin2018]

The answer to this question, is it depends who is the QB for the team getting the ball back. If it’s one of the Top 10, you take every second off. Against the bottom feeders, you should plan, but if it’s a stiff- no positive factor.

[stuvian]

when you have owners like Tepper, Haslam, and Jones who think they know everything, I suspect we are very close to a day when the owner will have an algorithm developed so as to call his own plays from the luxury box while showing off to their friends.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Some teams' 2 minute plans:

Other teams' 2 minute plans:

 

Sometimes I wonder which one the Bills are using. 🤨

[Big Turk]

Teams seem more willing to go for it on 4th and short from anywhere on the field really...Vrabel went for it on 4th and short from the Pats like 25 in the 1st quarter just randomly and they made it. I think there is a big push to maintain control of the ball with the decisions being made now far more than it ever was before.

 

Haven seen numerous cases of teams going for it on 4th and short from their own side of the field in situations where years prior would have been 100% punts since it was either early in the game or a close game...not a situation where a team is trying to get back in it late, etc..

 

Seems more and more in these situations teams are going for it rather than handing the ball over via punt.

Edited September 22 by Big Turk