Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

Watch the All-22 and see how much they rotated into Cover 2/3 looks in the second half. They ran a 3-3-5 in the first and we gashed them with the run game. They showed a lot of man at the snap and then rotated into 2 high shells. Marino/Cover 1/Sal all have > than 60% 2 high safety shells, sometimes 3.

i am watching it- this is an example of what folks are saying

 

 

now granted i am not an NFL coach but this to me is single high. and look was the same presnap

allen seems like he's reading playside backer the whole way so once he comes off coleman immediately checks down to cook. never even looks at hawes running the 8 completely wide open for a 60yard TD

[Magox]

Meanwhile the Bills are averaging 420 yards and 34 points a game

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

i am watching it- this is an example of what folks are saying

 

 

now granted i am not an NFL coach but this to me is single high. and look was the same presnap

allen seems like he's reading playside backer the whole way so once he comes off coleman immediately checks down to cook. never even looks at hawes running the 8 completely wide open for a 60yard TD

This specific play is one they talked about.  

 

[PromoTheRobot]

If you didn't like how the Miami game went, it probably won't be much different against the Saints.

[26TrapDraw]

No. The Bills have a problem stopping the run on defense period. And it will cost them a championship with one of the easiest schedules in the league…..

AGAIN.

[MPL]

20 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

On 9/18/2025 at 11:41 PM, MPL said:

3 years ago the Bills were the worst YAC team. Everything was a deep

shot or nothing. And everyone here complained about it. Well, now we’re all YAC YAC YAC and everyone’s complaining about that, too. You can’t have both!

 

Actually, you can have both. It's called balance. 

Balance?! On this board?! Never!

[oldmanfan]

8 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

No. The Bills have a problem stopping the run on defense period. And it will cost them a championship with one of the easiest schedules in the league…..

AGAIN.

Thanks Nostradamus 

[Rochesterfan]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

i am watching it- this is an example of what folks are saying

 

 

now granted i am not an NFL coach but this to me is single high. and look was the same presnap

allen seems like he's reading playside backer the whole way so once he comes off coleman immediately checks down to cook. never even looks at hawes running the 8 completely wide open for a 60yard TD

 

Correct and this is why people are wrong.  Josh read the play pre-snap - knew what the options were and what we needed and immediately took the check down and the positive yards.  
 

As Sal and Eric point out - could he have come off and looked for Kincaid up the seam - yes, but there is no guarantee he is as open.  If he starts to the right side - the safety drifts more to the right and the corner that is rotating to the deep half is drawn that way.

 

Josh in year 1 or 2 would hold the ball and try to fit that in and maybe it works, but maybe the corner gets a break and we get either a pick or an incompletion.  That was why in the early years we had so many 3rd and longs that Josh had to put a cape on and why we had so many turnovers.

 

Now we have exactly what people asked for at that time and for years - a controlled, RAC yards offense much like what Sean Payton ran in NO with Drew Brees.  
 

The Down field passes have been there - This one - JT O’Sullivan points out a different play with 2 TE seams, but Josh is taking the sure and easy completion and going positive yards every play.

 

That doesn’t mean there won’t be struggles - look at the blanket the Chiefs put on the Eagles - it happens, but it does not mean there is an issue - they are playing in structure and timing.

[26TrapDraw]

21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Thanks Nostradamus 

I knew you were gonna say that.

[ganesh]

19 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Was what I wrote that complicated that you had to respond with a completely unrelated fun-fact?

Tom Brady did not throw more than 28 TDs in any year that he won a Super Bowl.

I wish  Allen could have the same defenses that Brady had in those glory years.   

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, 26TrapDraw said:

I knew you were gonna say that.

Pick some stocks for me

Edited September 22 by oldmanfan

[Rochesterfan]

32 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I wish  Allen could have the same defenses that Brady had in those glory years.   

 

They could, but it would drive people crazy.  Just look at NE’s draft from 2003 to 2012 a period of 10 years  of hefty dominance.

 

2003:  4 of the top 5 picks on defense including their 1st pick

2004: 4 of the top 5 picks on defense including their 1st pick 

2005: 3 Defense and 2 offense in first 5 - both offense on OL including 1st

2006: offensive draft RB, WR, TE, FB, and K in first 4 rounds - all failures except K

 

2007: 4 of top 5 defense including 1st round

2008: 4 of top 5 defense including 1st round - only offense a failed QB in 3rd

2009: 3 of top 4 defense including 1st 

2010: 3 of top 4 defense including 1st

2011: offensive draft OT in 1st, DB in 2nd then 2 RB and a QB

2012: 6 of 7 were defense including 1st.

 

So for a 10 year run 8 of the 10 years the defense was drafted 1st and mostly and when they did go offense it was mostly OL or TE (Gronk in 2010 2nd round). They drafted few skill players mostly RBs that failed out.

 

Many of those highly drafted defensive players paired nicely - many left and came back later on cheap contracts to guide the next group.  The majority were DL and DBs especially early.

 

Why were they successful- they let Brady handle making the offense work and drafted the defensive side over and over and over filling new players in, resigning those they could and cutting and trading those that wanted out, but that is where they drafts went and that is why they were successful.

 

People here lose their minds that we are not picking offensive weapons for Josh all the time.

[ganesh]

54 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

They could, but it would drive people crazy.  Just look at NE’s draft from 2003 to 2012 a period of 10 years  of hefty dominance.

 

2003:  4 of the top 5 picks on defense including their 1st pick

2004: 4 of the top 5 picks on defense including their 1st pick 

2005: 3 Defense and 2 offense in first 5 - both offense on OL including 1st

2006: offensive draft RB, WR, TE, FB, and K in first 4 rounds - all failures except K

 

2007: 4 of top 5 defense including 1st round

2008: 4 of top 5 defense including 1st round - only offense a failed QB in 3rd

2009: 3 of top 4 defense including 1st 

2010: 3 of top 4 defense including 1st

2011: offensive draft OT in 1st, DB in 2nd then 2 RB and a QB

2012: 6 of 7 were defense including 1st.

 

So for a 10 year run 8 of the 10 years the defense was drafted 1st and mostly and when they did go offense it was mostly OL or TE (Gronk in 2010 2nd round). They drafted few skill players mostly RBs that failed out.

 

Many of those highly drafted defensive players paired nicely - many left and came back later on cheap contracts to guide the next group.  The majority were DL and DBs especially early.

 

Why were they successful- they let Brady handle making the offense work and drafted the defensive side over and over and over filling new players in, resigning those they could and cutting and trading those that wanted out, but that is where they drafts went and that is why they were successful.

 

People here lose their minds that we are not picking offensive weapons for Josh all the time.

Hasn't Beane done exactly the same...Continued investment on the DL and the DBs...but the results have not been there. 

[Mat68]

On 9/19/2025 at 11:03 AM, Dan said:

I play fantasy football and only look at stat lines.   Whether the team wins, scoring 31 points is irrelevant. I need my players to be individual FF leaders.   There must be a problem.  Let’s fix what ain’t broke so I can talk trash to my sister.  

If you drafted and played anyone besides Allen, Cook and Kincaid you need a new hobby.  Sarcasm I assume aside Cook, Allen and Kincaid are all top 5-10 in their position.  So you cant really complain about fantasy production either.  

[Rochesterfan]

24 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Hasn't Beane done exactly the same...Continued investment on the DL and the DBs...but the results have not been there. 

Not really - the Bills have almost always had about an even mix of offense and defense being drafted.  
 

Yes there have been many DL, but not compared to what NE did.

 

For example Beane’s drafts

 

2018 - 3 Defense and 1 offense with that being Josh

2019 - top pick was DT - Oliver and then 3 offensive players

2020 - our 1st went for WR then DE and 3 offensive players

2021 - 2 offensive and 2 defensive 

2023 - 3 offensive and 1 defensive

2024 - 2 offensive and 2 defensive

 

through 2024 - the higher picks have been defensive driven, but there have been more offensive guys picked in the first 4 picks - plus a trade of a #1 for WR.  
 

He has invested on the OL and the DL and we have gotten some return - guys like Oliver have been valuable, but it has not been as successful, but for it to be like NE - he has to repeat the 2025 draft for multiple years.  
 

Up until this year they have had a balanced early draft covering both offense and defense - much like NE did early in Brady’s run, but then they shifted to nearly drafting 100% defense early and built that way - 2025 was like that for Buffalo. 
 

Now how are fans going to react if we did 2025 (5 of 6 top picks on D) for 8 of the next 10 years - that was NE when their D was dominant.

[26TrapDraw]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Pick some stocks for me

Enron?

[JP51]

Its hard to argue with the fact we have put up 30 or more points in all of our games...  for an average of almost 34 pts a game... I get the thought, the eye test tells us that we are not completing the ball down field as much... I have not seen the breakdown, but it sure feels that way... that said... lots of drops down field I get there are always drops, but geez it seems we have a bunch especially Coleman and Knox.... we have not seen a deep ball or very little...  that said, I wonder if its the game plan... control the ball, have 17 get it out quick and not take punishment...  especially against team that we are supposed to beat... Baltimore he was lighting it up... then a more conservative ball out approach the next two games... Problem... not sure, don't think so, but if it is its a problem with receivers not 17...  JMO

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Correct and this is why people are wrong.  Josh read the play pre-snap - knew what the options were and what we needed and immediately took the check down and the positive yards.  
 

As Sal and Eric point out - could he have come off and looked for Kincaid up the seam - yes, but there is no guarantee he is as open.  If he starts to the right side - the safety drifts more to the right and the corner that is rotating to the deep half is drawn that way.

 

Josh in year 1 or 2 would hold the ball and try to fit that in and maybe it works, but maybe the corner gets a break and we get either a pick or an incompletion.  That was why in the early years we had so many 3rd and longs that Josh had to put a cape on and why we had so many turnovers.

 

Now we have exactly what people asked for at that time and for years - a controlled, RAC yards offense much like what Sean Payton ran in NO with Drew Brees.  
 

The Down field passes have been there - This one - JT O’Sullivan points out a different play with 2 TE seams, but Josh is taking the sure and easy completion and going positive yards every play.

 

That doesn’t mean there won’t be struggles - look at the blanket the Chiefs put on the Eagles - it happens, but it does not mean there is an issue - they are playing in structure and timing.

first off I'm pretty sure that's Hawes and not Kincaid

 

second- imo it's lazy analysis to say that 'Josh read the play pre-snap' in one sentence and 'there is no guarantee he is as open' in the next. 

 

third i certainly never asked for this kind of offense. i definitely anticipated it but I thought and still do think it isn't the best use of allen:

On 4/27/2024 at 12:26 PM, GoBills808 said:

After this most recent off-season I have to agree

 

I think this is setting up for a very unfortunate 2-3yr attempt at a ball control grind it out type offense

 

and i never particularly cared about allen's turnovers as they were offset by the TDs

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 9/19/2025 at 1:18 PM, balln said:

Im pretty confident saying sucking because. Aside from bosa and ed and their forced fumbles And Bernard getting an INT (needs turnovers). They can’t stop the run consistently, up the middle, misdirection, outside. All of it. They’re poor tacklers. They lack overall team speed. Pass rush / sacks are few and far between. Our blitzes are just awful. It’s still safeties and taron blitzing late and from deep. 
 

Last night against the worst OL in the league. They had zero sacks. Tua had 1 or 2 long run scrambles for first downs.( yes tua). Can’t guard the flats still. And 3 rd down d. Really bad defensive conversion on 3rd and 4th last night. Vs the dolphins. It looked and felt most of the time like watching Mahommes and chiefs games ending our playoffs 

Your points are all valid balln.  We don't stop the run consistently.  Its been like that for awhile now.  And they can't sack the QB.  Very frustrating.  And we give up so much in the flats.  Is it scheme or just guys being slow and not reading plays quick enough? 

 

I was watching the NFL games yesterday, and I will say that Cleveland has an excellent defense.  They get after the QB and are relentless.  And the Giants athleticism on the edge with Burns Thibodeaux and now Carter who they drafted from Penn State is ridiculous.  We have noone close to that.  That we gave Rousseau all that money is concerning.  For whatever reason the Bills do not get anyone who is twitchy playing D Line.  Heck, I would love to have a guy like George Karloftis, who may not be twitchy, but is tough and can make plays off the edge.   

[BillsFan130]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

first off I'm pretty sure that's Hawes and not Kincaid

 

second- imo it's lazy analysis to say that 'Josh read the play pre-snap' in one sentence and 'there is no guarantee he is as open' in the next. 

 

third i certainly never asked for this kind of offense. i definitely anticipated it but I thought and still do think it isn't the best use of allen:

 

and i never particularly cared about allen's turnovers as they were offset by the TDs

Exactly where I'm at. Everyone was stressed about the INTs, but it didn't really bother me as his yards and TDs more than enough made up for it. 

 

And come playoff time, he always cleaned the INTs when it mattered most.