An amazing TO stat for the Bills…

[billsFORlife50]

1 hour ago, ticketssince61 said:

This better not have jinxed us!

My thoughts exactly, if it happens Thursday I know who to come at with pitch forks! 

[BigPappy]

8 hours ago, eball said:

 

Yes, but it was always overblown because his TD to TO numbers were still staggering.  Regardless, it is yet another area of his game he has worked fervently to improve, and it shows in historic fashion.

 

 

Not to mention that his numbers were not that far off from Brady, P Manning, Favre, and a few others in the same amount completed years in the league. Assuming the stats that ChatGPT pulled are correct, I think it is safe to assume the narritive that Josh was a "turnover machine" (especially in his early career) are grossly exagerated. 
 

[billsfan89]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Yep, remember when the storyline on JA was that he was a turnover machine?

 

I know turnovers has some variance with luck (DB's dropping passes, fumbles being recovered by your own team, and just some fluky bounces on special teams and other circumstances) but Josh has fixed a lot of his turnover issues and that's reflecting on the Bills positive turnover ratio. 

[DrMaxPower]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Years ago, I read an article that showed that yards gained and yards allowed are somewhat consistent from year to year (especially if the same coaching staff stays in place).  But, the author argued, TOs are mostly a crap shoot - particularly fumbles but overall TOs as well.  If a team is among the league's leaders in TO differential, they can't count on repeating.  To say it another way, TOs are as much about luck as they are about skill according to the author.  

 

That doesn't seem to be true.  Not with the Bills.  

The Patriots were always a significant outlier in this area during their run too.

 

This is a coaching stat. In general, turnovers are fairly variable but the outliers are that for a reason.

Edited September 16 by DrMaxPower

[DrMaxPower]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Brady at OC using Cook and co is also a huge help.

Someone else was harping on it but we also should be doing more play action with Cook cooking the way he is

This is really my only criticism of Brady right now. The last stats I saw had us very low in PA usage. With how much/well we run, it really should be a bigger piece of the pie. It would give Josh lots of clean, easy throws.

 

I get that the current offense may not be everyone's cup of tea as far as style or entertainment value but you can't argue with the results. Lots of points and TOP, very few TOs.

[BigDingus]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Yep, remember when the storyline on JA was that he was a turnover machine?

 

He was a turnover machine. Up through the 2023 season, Allen had never gone 2 straight regular season games without an INT. And even with last season's remarkable turnaround, he's still way above everyone else in total turnovers since he's been in the league.

 

Now I argue that's partially because very few players have been starting & healthy for as many games as him, and his TDs were much more important. However, even when including his TDs, his TD/turnover ratio was below others in that group.

 

Thankfully, that's changed. It's what allowed him to win MVP over others who were also very deserving. I think it's important to give credit to Josh for his growth & not just act like the problems never existed. 

 

It's the same way I view the huge leap he took in 2020. A lot of people will say things like "anyone who paid attention KNEW Allen would be a star!" or "Allen was ALWAYS great, he just needed more help!" 

 

I think stuff like that downplays how hard Josh worked to get better. He was not a guaranteed star. He busted his ass to become one. 

[Einstein's Dog]

55 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I know turnovers has some variance with luck (DB's dropping passes, fumbles being recovered by your own team, and just some fluky bounces on special teams and other circumstances) but Josh has fixed a lot of his turnover issues and that's reflecting on the Bills positive turnover ratio. 

It's not just Josh, remember when J Cook was a fumbler, G Davis ran wrong routes, and I. McKenzie did plenty of inexplicable things.  They either improved or were sent packing.  

[billsfan89]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It's not just Josh, remember when J Cook was a fumbler, G Davis ran wrong routes, and I. McKenzie did plenty of inexplicable things.  They either improved or were sent packing.  

 

Josh wasn't the only issue certainly. But he was the driver of a lot of turnovers from 2021 to 2023, he would just make a few throws a game where it was like what were you thinking? Then he would make a few "force it" throws too. I think Josh's maturation as a QB has helped him avoid the obvious bad throws and the scheme putting less pressure on Josh by developing a ground game and making things easier on him and protecting him better so there's less need to "force" the issue. 

 

I think if I had to pinpoint the issues of the turnovers in 2021-2023 I would say Josh was the primary but not only driver of them. He cleaned that up a lot in 2023 when Brady took over and in 2024 he vastly improved even further. Of course the RB's fumbling less and WR's and other players being better in their roles have helped. 

1 hour ago, DrMaxPower said:

The Patriots were always a significant outlier in this area during their run too.

 

This is a coaching stat. In general, turnovers are fairly variable but the outliers are that for a reason.

 

There's some variance in turnovers year to year that are luck based but largely if you are a smart well coached team with a good QB you are going to be in the top 10 in turnover percentage each year. Now some years you might be top 5 others you might be 10 because of the variance with luck. But coaching and QB play always kept the Pats well above average in turnover margin. 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Recovered fumbles and dropped interceptions are what even out over the long run... it's those things that are somewhat random.

 

Consistently taking the ball away over 8+ seasons and consistently protecting the ball over 2+ seasons are not random.

 

Regarding the 2 point conversion attempt interception, that's like a Hail Mary play... a desperation... unlike Geno Smith throwing the ball away on 4th down, Josh was trying to force a pass into the end zone.

 

 

Same as above, see below regarding sample size... 

 

 

McDermott started in 2017 so I'm going to drop the two years previous. The mean average is 5.125... the median is 4.

 

 

Yes, the luck is a smaller component of this story.

 

The sample sizes (touches) are enough to carry statistical validity. In an average NFL game there are 120-150 plays.

 

These numbers are not outliers... they're the norm for a team which is obviously coached to protect the ball on offense and take the ball away on defense.

 

 

 

Exactly and precisely this.

 

Luck is a factor. But with precision and consistency over time like this, other factors are larger.

 

Never worse than 4th in the league at takeaways five years in a row? Luck isn't a major factor.

 

There's something in our - dare I say it? - our process.

 

Edited September 16 by Thurman#1

[26TrapDraw]

10 hours ago, eball said:

 

Yes, but it was always overblown because his TD to TO numbers were still staggering.  Regardless, it is yet another area of his game he has worked fervently to improve, and it shows in historic fashion.

 

that's what got him the MVP in my mind.

[Pete]

PFF was amazed at their stat the Bills have won the turnover battle in 24 straight games.  They said, that they keep saying that its not sustainable, yet it has been

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It's not just Josh, remember when J Cook was a fumbler, G Davis ran wrong routes, and I. McKenzie did plenty of inexplicable things.  They either improved or were sent packing.  

Its amazing to compare our #2WR Josh Palmer to our former #2 Gabe.  Palmer is smooth route runner, with great hands.  I remember Gabe frequently running wrong patterns, or dropping passes.  This caused several times interceptions or turnover on downs.  A couple big games, but most games Gabe only had a couple receptions at most.  Gabe was great blocker, but so is Palmer

[BigDingus]

15 hours ago, eball said:

 

Yes, but it was always overblown because his TD to TO numbers were still staggering.  Regardless, it is yet another area of his game he has worked fervently to improve, and it shows in historic fashion.

 

His TD to turnover ratio was good, not great.

 

Jalen Hurts: 145 total TDs to 45 turnovers - 3.22 to 1 ratio

Aaron Rodgers: 508 total TDs to 162 turnovers - 3.14 to 1 ratio

Patrick Mahomes: 263 total TDs to 88 turnovers - 2.99 to 1 ratio

Lamar Jackson: 206 total TDs to 75 turnovers - 2.75 to 1 ratio

Russell Wilson: 385 total TDs to 147 turnovers - 2.62 to 1 ratio

Jared Goff: 241 total TDs to 95 turnovers - 2.54 to 1 ratio

Joe Burrow: 154 total TDs to 61 turnovers - 2.52 to 1 ratio

Brock Purdy: 74 total TDs to 32 turnovers - 2.31 to 1 ratio

Dak Prescott: 245 total TDs to 111 turnovers - 2.21 ratio

 

Josh Allen (prior to 2024): 219 total TDs to 102 turnovers - 2.14 ratio

 

In other words, it was a "good" TD to TO ratio, but not amazing. After he stopped being a turnover machine, he improved his ratio to 2.40 TDs to 1 TO, which is better, but still worse than everyone I listed except for Purdy & Dak. 

 

We have to be honest, Josh did turn the ball over a ton. 

Edited September 17 by BigDingus

[Billl]

13 hours ago, eball said:

The last time the Bills lost the TO battle in a game, regular or postseason, was January 7, 2024, in the regular season finale at Miami.

 

Since then they have won the TO battle 19 times, tied it 5, and their overall TO margin is +33 (8-41).

 

This a remarkable testament to Allen’s growth and maturity, and probably includes a fair amount of good fortune, but the 24-game streak of not losing the TO battle is believed to be the longest in NFL history.

 

That’s absolutely insane.  McDermott really is an excellent coach.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Years ago, I read an article that showed that yards gained and yards allowed are somewhat consistent from year to year (especially if the same coaching staff stays in place).  But, the author argued, TOs are mostly a crap shoot - particularly fumbles but overall TOs as well.  If a team is among the league's leaders in TO differential, they can't count on repeating.  To say it another way, TOs are as much about luck as they are about skill according to the author.  

 

That doesn't seem to be true.  Not with the Bills.  

I believe the article and others said luck related to fumbles. Not interceptions. Tiu can teach punching the ball out and how to protect against a fumble but at the ned of the day the recovery has a lot of lucky bounce involved. 

INTs are different. First of all if you are winning it forces the other team to throw more. Second pass rush does equate to more INTs. And of course the back 7 need to cover and catch the ball. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

His TD to turnover ratio was good, not great.

 

Jalen Hurts: 145 total TDs to 45 turnovers - 3.22 to 1 ratio

Aaron Rodgers: 508 total TDs to 162 turnovers - 3.14 to 1 ratio

Patrick Mahomes: 263 total TDs to 88 turnovers - 2.99 to 1 ratio

Lamar Jackson: 206 total TDs to 75 turnovers - 2.75 to 1 ratio

Russell Wilson: 385 total TDs to 147 turnovers - 2.62 to 1 ratio

Jared Goff: 241 total TDs to 95 turnovers - 2.54 to 1 ratio

Joe Burrow: 154 total TDs to 61 turnovers - 2.52 to 1 ratio

Brock Purdy: 74 total TDs to 32 turnovers - 2.31 to 1 ratio

Dak Prescott: 245 total TDs to 111 turnovers - 2.21 ratio

 

Josh Allen (prior to 2024): 219 total TDs to 102 turnovers - 2.14 ratio

 

In other words, it was a "good" TD to TO ratio, but not amazing. After he stopped being a turnover machine, he improved his ratio to 2.40 TDs to 1 TO, which is better, but still worse than everyone I listed except for Purdy & Dak. 

 

We have to be honest, Josh did turn the ball over a ton. 

Pretty sure he simultaneously lead the league in TDs scored and turnovers his first 6 years in the league. I think that was the stat thrown around alot. 

He cleaned up his turnovers in the playoffs. 25 TD passes to only 4 INT. 

 

[BigDingus]

11 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Pretty sure he simultaneously lead the league in TDs scored and turnovers his first 6 years in the league. I think that was the stat thrown around alot. 

He cleaned up his turnovers in the playoffs. 25 TD passes to only 4 INT. 

 

 

Yes, he was both TD leader & turnover leader.

 

He's actually still the turnover leader the past 7 years (by a pretty wide margin), and he has Mahomes beat by 3 TDs. 

 

I'm just saying his TD to turnover ratio was just pretty good, never great. Even with all his TDs, he had too many turnovers compared to the other guys.

[Mikie2times]

As a card carrying McD hater (who I will give flowers to on the start of the year) I have been consistent in praising this element of the team. Turnovers, for most teams are fairly random on the defensive side of the ball. But McD's teams historically, even dating back to Carolina, have been exceptional here. It's not random and it does directly lead to wins. When you go down the switch coaching path, that is the element I think you lose the most from. You aren't going to bring another coach in that is this successful at maximizing the turnover battle. He's elite at it, it's in the way our defenses are taught and it's very valuable. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

20 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Yes, he was both TD leader & turnover leader.

 

He's actually still the turnover leader the past 7 years (by a pretty wide margin), and he has Mahomes beat by 3 TDs. 

 

I'm just saying his TD to turnover ratio was just pretty good, never great. Even with all his TDs, he had too many turnovers compared to the other guys.

Lol...maybe if Dak stays healthy he will pass him on the turnover list

 

Its really remarkable how Allen first fixed his completion percentage and then cut his turnovers without sacrificing his scoring output! Best QB and best player in the league!!! 

[Turf Toejam 34]

On 9/16/2025 at 5:37 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

It's not just Josh, remember when J Cook was a fumbler, G Davis ran wrong routes, and I. McKenzie did plenty of inexplicable things.  They either improved or were sent packing.  

Well, TBH, Gabe was sent packing and has slithered back, so we may see wrong routes impacting turnovers again.

[Dan Darragh]

When I saw the headline of this thread, I thought "What, another Terrel Owens thread?"