NFL Homefield Advantage Data

[Royale with Cheese]

It's almost 50/50 now and has been getting closer in the last 6 seasons.

 

How often does the home team win in the NFL?

On average, NFL home teams win just over half their games, but the advantage isn’t as strong as it used to be. Historically, from the 1970s through the early 2010s, home teams won close to 57–60% of the time. Over the past few seasons, however, that edge has diminished, and since 2019 the win rate for home teams has hovered around 52–53%. That’s only a slight edge above random chance, meaning that while playing at home still provides some benefit, it’s no longer the near-automatic bump that bettors could count on in past decades.

For handicapping, this decline matters. Oddsmakers once routinely gave home teams a standard three-point edge in the spread, but in today’s market that figure has been cut in half, closer to 1.5 points. Across the league the numbers show that betting purely on the home team is no longer profitable. Successful bettors now weigh matchup-specific factors like travel distance, rest days, injuries, and team quality far more heavily than the simple fact of where the game is played.

 

https://www.covers.com/nfl/home-field-advantage#:~:text=On average%2C NFL home teams,where the game is played.

[US Egg]

Anyone reconsidering their TBD pick ‘em choices?

[Billsfed1]

Interesting…however Bills 10-0 at home last year

[Talleywhacker]

Bills 18-2 in last 20 at home. The Jets, jags, browns, Titans etc drag that % down near 50

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think this is a fascinating stat, and I'm trying to think of ideas why this happened. 

 

The best I can come up with:

 

1) Refs have improved over time and don't favor the home team as much as they used to

 

2) Home games feature a lot more visiting/neutral fans than they used to 

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think this is a fascinating stat, and I'm trying to think of ideas why this happened. 

 

The best I can come up with:

 

1) Refs have improved over time and don't favor the home team as much as they used to

 

2) Home games feature a lot more visiting/neutral fans than they used to 

How many opposing fans get to Bills games in OP always surprises me.

 

But I think (?) that will be less this year with Bills fans' desire to get to Highmark for the last season—at least, I hope that.

[eball]

33 minutes ago, CSBill said:

How many opposing fans get to Bills games in OP always surprises me.

 

It’s nowhere near what happens in other buildings around the league, and when our seating capacity drops to 60K next year it will be even less so. 
 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, eball said:

It’s nowhere near what happens in other buildings around the league, and when our seating capacity drops to 60K next year it will be even less so. 
 

Was at the meadowlands a few years back and it was like 60% Bills fans in the stands. Felt like a home game.

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Talleywhacker said:

Bills 18-2 in last 20 at home. The Jets, jags, browns, Titans etc drag that % down near 50

Let's pray the next 20 are just as good.

[Matt_In_NH]

I think offenses have improved their ability to deal with crowd noise

[GoBills808]

nfl home field advantage has been steadily rising over the last few years after falling dramatically from 2018-2021

 

over the last 16 weeks of football hfa is worth 1.99, still down historically but ticking back up

 

think the covid dip was an abberation

[Doc Brown]

Vegas has factored this in for at least four years now.  It's nothing new.  Some teams have more of a home field advantage than others though like the Bills.  The players are more used to the crazy weather and the stadium creates a college like atmosphere with the rabid fans.  

Edited September 4 by Doc Brown

[Logic]

While I fully believe that -- ON AVERAGE -- that's true...

Home Field Advantage is DEFINITELY a very real thing for some teams.

The Bills were 10-0 at home last year. 3-5 on the road.

Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks...

There are absolutely some teams in this league (and the Bills are one of them) for whom home field advantage matters.

[Royale with Cheese]

More data....

 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-playoffs-how-much-does-home-field-advantage-help-postseason

 

"Over the past four years, half of the No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl, but only one — the 2022 Chiefs — has actually won, so there's an expectation of the unexpected. The last four Super Bowl champions included three teams not expected to make it past the divisional round based on seeding. Last year's Chiefs were a 3 seed, the 2021 Rams were a 4 seed, and the 2020 Bucs won as a 5 seed, winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl.

How big an advantage is home field in general? Less than you might expect. This past season, over 272 games, home teams went 145-127, which works out to a .533 winning percentage, about the same as a 9-8 team over the course of a full season. That advantage was down slightly from 2023, when NFL home teams went 151-121, good for a .555 win percentage, much like a 5-4 record.

 

In 2023, all eight NFL divisions had at least a .500 record at home, but this season, the AFC South went 14-18 at home, the NFC South went 15-21, and three other divisions were .500 at home. So in the 2024 NFL season, only three of eight divisions collectively had winning records at home."

[GoBills808]

yes the afcs and the nfcs are bad divisions so having a losing record at home isn't surprising

 

need to wait a few years until the 17game season/international series data settles out before you can conclusively say anything close to hfa doesn't matter...which again flies in the face of the data

[Doc Brown]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

While I fully believe that -- ON AVERAGE -- that's true...

Home Field Advantage is DEFINITELY a very real thing for some teams.

The Bills were 10-0 at home last year. 3-5 on the road.

Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks...

There are absolutely some teams in this league (and the Bills are one of them) for whom home field advantage matters.

They were 5-5 on the road if you include the playoff game.  They would've pry been 6-4 if they didn't play their backups @NE in week 18.

[ticketssince61]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think offenses have improved their ability to deal with crowd noise

 

Coaches having the ability talk directly through a headset to the QB to call plays could make a big difference

 

 

[Fleezoid]

14 hours ago, Talleywhacker said:

Bills 18-2 in last 20 at home. The Jets, jags, browns, Titans etc drag that % down near 50

 

Exactly. I read an article at least about 20 years ago with the title something like "Win at Home." I think Vic Carucci wrote it. I'm doing this by memory, but it was basically discussing the chance of making the playoffs simply by the home field record. I don't have the specific numbers, but it was obvious. Something like, if the home field record was at least 6-2 the chance for playoffs was something close to 80%. Drop that to 5-3, around 50%.  4-4, I think that was between 20-30%. 3-5, the percentage was in the teens. 

 

So basically, putting out a flat stat like that skews the importance. Yes, maybe it's 50-50 across the board, but if you want playoffs, you better have home field advantage. 

[DrBob806]

13 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I think this is a fascinating stat, and I'm trying to think of ideas why this happened. 

 

The best I can come up with:

 

1) Refs have improved over time and don't favor the home team as much as they used to

 

2) Home games feature a lot more visiting/neutral fans than they used to 

3) Art Rooney isn't around to "assist" anymore.

[BigDingus]

I'm not sure how helpful HFA is, but it seems to help the Bills. Granted, playing the 7th seed also helps, as our home record drops to 2-2 past the WC round.

 

But I guess it's still preferable to the alternate, as we've never won a playoff game on the road yet.