Allen vs Mahomes, is this a controversial take?

[90sBills]

Just now, Buffalo4Life01 said:

There are always a host of excuses each year after the Bills lose to KC in the playoffs.  KC fans are loving this.  I'm sure our tears are quenching their thirst.  

The irony of this is our fans laugh at Miami and Baltimore for doing the exact same things after their teams lose to the Bills. It’s really comical if you’re able to detach and view from above the fray. 

[Buffalo4Life01]

8 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Josh had the ball in his hands the last two years with under 3 minutes to play and came away with 0 points both times.  That has nothing to due with an "unreliable" defense. Don't get me wrong, I love Josh, but the offense didn't deliver when we needed it to the past two years in that situation.

Facts.  It's okay to criticize our offense sometimes.  Some people here act like Josh is Jesus.  Silly really. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

We all wear rose colored glasses when we view our teams, some more than others.  It's called fandom. 

 

Okay but it isn't just homers saying it. It's become somewhat the trend lately amongst national analysts to not have Mahomes ranked #1. Chris Simms, Kyle Brandt, even some of the NFL coaches and executives interviewed by the Athletic for their annual QB ranking. I'm not saying any of these people's word is law. But it is a legitimate conversation/debate. If you've decided game winning drives and total championship wins is your deciding marker, cool I respect that. A lot of analysts are ranking based on other factors and it is not as clear cut as you seem to think.

 

I suspect Mahomes is aware of the chatter around his play dropping off and he will have a bounce back season this year. Especially with the addition of a legit LT and his best passing target returning in week 7. I don't expect them to go 15-1 again but I expect their offense to be significantly better than last year.

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

Facts.  It's okay to criticize our offense sometimes.  Some people here act like Josh is Jesus.  Silly really. 

 

Absolutely. There have been times when the offense could have played better in the playoffs but it's the defense that is mostly to blame. To me 13 seconds won't go away until the Bills at least get to a Super Bowl with a chance to win it.

Edited August 27 by Gregg

[dorquemada]

52 minutes ago, MJS said:

Funny, because the Chiefs also invest a ton of draft capital in defense.

 

Yes, and theirs shows up in the AFCCG when they need a stop.  We agree.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Last year on the 4th down play Allen made a good throw under a heavy rush. It wasn't an easy catch, but it should have been caught which would have given the Bills a 1st down inside KC territory. 

Meanwhile clutch Mahomes throwing 6yard drag to Hill that he takes to the house😂😂

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay but it isn't just homers saying it. It's become somewhat the trend lately amongst national analysts to not have Mahomes ranked #1. Chris Simms, Kyle Brandt, even some of the NFL coaches and executives interviewed by the Athletic for their annual QB ranking. I'm not saying any of these people's word is law. But it is a legitimate conversation/debate. If you've decided game winning drives and total championship wins is your deciding marker, cool I respect that. A lot of analysts are ranking based on other factors and it is not as clear cut as you seem to think.

 

I suspect Mahomes is aware of the chatter around his play dropping off and he will have a bounce back season this year. Especially with the addition of a legit LT and his best passing target returning in week 7. I don't expect them to go 15-1 again but I expect their offense to be significantly better than last year.

I mean KB has jumped on the Bills bandwagon and Simms was the ultimate Allen guy from the draft. You also don’t get as many clicks by saying the guy who goes to the SB every year is the best guy. Bill Simmons, who always picks against the Bills, put Allen ahead of Mahomes this year. 
 

if the Bills and Allen were going for their 5th SB and lost 1 game all year, would we allow anyone to say Allen wasn’t the best qb even if his stats weren’t as good? It’s kinda insane. 
 

that said, if Allen and the Bills beat them this year, the Mahomes is washed conversation would start. 

[zow2]

Jeez. I didn't really want to open up the Bills vs KC playoff wounds.  Interesting takes by everyone.  I really just wanted to see if people thought Mahomes was on another level executing the easier dink and dunk throws.  Josh tried to dial those up more last season, but in crunch time we revert back to trying to hit lower % passes downfield.  

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've manufactured a binary choice. The correct answer which you decided not to include is that Andy Reid has had McDermott's number big time. We run our normal defense that they already saw in the regular season, while they add new wrinkles that we are woefully unprepared for. It's as big a coaching mismatch as I've ever seen between two supposed rival teams.

 

FWIW I think McDermott is a good coach. But he needs to get his nemesis figured out and start performing at even an average level against him - hell I'd take slightly below average - or the result will never change. I'm optimistic that some of the defensive additions on both the roster and coaching staff mean there are real changes coming. But I need to see it happen when it counts.

It’s not an Andy vs McDermott issue, though.  The Chiefs score more against the Bills than they do against other teams in the postseason because they have to in order to win.  If the Bills scored fewer points, so would the Chiefs.  Since Mahomes has been the QB, this is what has happened in his postseason wins:

 

2019:

Chiefs give up 20 and score 31

Chiefs give up 24 and score 35

Chiefs give up 31 and score 51

 

2020:

Chiefs give up 17 and score 22

Chiefs give up 24 and score 38

 

2021:

Chiefs give 21 and score 42

Chiefs give up 36 and score 42

 

2022:

Chiefs give up 20 and score 23

Chiefs give up 20 and score 27

Chiefs give up 35 and score 38

 

2023:

Chiefs give up 7 and score 26

Chiefs give up 10 and score 17

Chiefs give up 24 and score 27

 

2024:

Chiefs give up 14 and score 23

Chiefs give up 29 and score 32

 

There number of points the Chiefs score in the postseason is incredibly correlated to how many points they need to score.  When the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 2 years ago, it wasn’t that the Ravens shut the Chiefs down.  The Chiefs started out the game TD, TD, and then went into a shell because Baltimore couldn’t score.  They can’t play that way against Josh and the Bills because they can put up so many points.  Andy and Mahomes have to hit the throttle in those games.  If Allen were to get injured prior to a playoff game against Kansas City this year, the Chiefs aren’t going to gameplan to put up 40 points.  They’re going to try to get on top early and win a 24-13 type game while not giving Buffalo a short field due to turnovers.

[dorquemada]

55 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Spagnola has plenty of bad defenses under his resume 

 

What he does is when he has a lot of talent he maximizes it 

 

He doesn't do a lot with a little he's good with a lot.. Sean McDermott has a much better defensive resume across the board

 

You know, somehow this doesn't make me feel any better.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

If the Bills scored fewer points, so would the Chiefs

 

Ok but this is just a thing you said. It has no basis in reality and isn't a convincing argument.

 

10 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Josh tried to dial those up more last season, but in crunch time we revert back to trying to hit lower % passes downfield.  

 

I didn't get that sense at all last year. If anything there were times where I wanted us to open up the passing game more. The Rams game would have been a blowout loss if Allen didn't start throwing lasers downfield. Two big completions to Amari Cooper are what won us the KC regular season game. Two big completions to Mack Hollins are what kept us in the AFCCG. Reverting to low % chance passing attempts didn't lose us that game. Quite the opposite - we did so many short yardage plays the game came down to a referee spot. On the final drive we tried dinking and dunking our way down, this failed and put us in a 4th down situation, and then when we absolutely needed a long completion our pass catcher failed in the clutch and that was game over.

[Bad Things]

Now, I personally can't stand the sight of the guy, but Mahomes deserves a lot more respect than what he's getting here.

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Ok but this is just a thing you said. It has no basis in reality and isn't a convincing argument.

It’s 100% true.  The Chiefs scored 30 or more points twice all season/postseason.  They won 30-27 and 32-29 in those 2 games.  The only other game (week 18 excluded) in which they gave up more than 25 points was in the loss to Buffalo during the regular season.  

 

It’s been a consistent theme with Kansas City, particularly since they traded away Tyreek.  They don’t go to the whip unless they need to.  So many seem to think that means they don’t have a whip only to be left wondering where all those welts came from every January.

[Buffalo4Life01]

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s not an Andy vs McDermott issue, though.  The Chiefs score more against the Bills than they do against other teams in the postseason because they have to in order to win.  If the Bills scored fewer points, so would the Chiefs.  Since Mahomes has been the QB, this is what has happened in his postseason wins:

 

2019:

Chiefs give up 20 and score 31

Chiefs give up 24 and score 35

Chiefs give up 31 and score 51

 

2020:

Chiefs give up 17 and score 22

Chiefs give up 24 and score 38

 

2021:

Chiefs give 21 and score 42

Chiefs give up 36 and score 42

 

2022:

Chiefs give up 20 and score 23

Chiefs give up 20 and score 27

Chiefs give up 35 and score 38

 

2023:

Chiefs give up 7 and score 26

Chiefs give up 10 and score 17

Chiefs give up 24 and score 27

 

2024:

Chiefs give up 14 and score 23

Chiefs give up 29 and score 32

 

There number of points the Chiefs score in the postseason is incredibly correlated to how many points they need to score.  When the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 2 years ago, it wasn’t that the Ravens shut the Chiefs down.  The Chiefs started out the game TD, TD, and then went into a shell because Baltimore couldn’t score.  They can’t play that way against Josh and the Bills because they can put up so many points.  Andy and Mahomes have to hit the throttle in those games.  If Allen were to get injured prior to a playoff game against Kansas City this year, the Chiefs aren’t going to gameplan to put up 40 points.  They’re going to try to get on top early and win a 24-13 type game while not giving Buffalo a short field due to turnovers.

 

I'm not really buying the idea that the Chiefs only score exactly as many points as they need to win and then go into a conservative shell. Even if that were true at some point I don't think they'd do that ever again after blowing a 21-3 lead to the Bengals in the AFCCG. 

 

I think they're a streaky offense that tends to run hotter for longer against the Bills than anyone else in the playoffs. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

It’s 100% true.  The Chiefs scored 30 or more points twice all season/postseason.  They won 30-27 and 32-29 in those 2 games.  The only other game (week 18 excluded) in which they gave up more than 25 points was in the loss to Buffalo during the regular season.  

 

It’s been a consistent theme with Kansas City, particularly since they traded away Tyreek.  They don’t go to the whip unless they need to.  So many seem to think that means they don’t have a whip only to be left wondering where all those welts came from every January.

 

They literally blew us out in our first playoff matchup. 38-24 and it was only that close because we scored a garbage time TD. Get out of here with "they don't try to score points unless the game is close." That's patently ridiculous and you know it.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Yeah, I kind of need a little break from roster talk.

 

I think at this stage of their careers, Allen is the better downfield passer and clearly the better runner (although Pat is a good scrambler when he needs to be and certainly has a good downfield arm when he uses it)..  However, I think many of us have seen that Mahomes is the better dink and dunker.  He's always been.   At the end of those close playoff games when KC needs a critical TD or FG, it's the dink and dunk plus Andy Reid play call mastery that gives KC a slight edge.  We've had two seasons in a row end with the ball in our hands, and the Bills can't take what the D gives and execute a short dump off to get the needed yardage.  I'm just wondering if the Bills start working on that more this season,,, or maybe they keep some plays in their back pocket for critical playoff moments.

I am the biggest Josh Allen homer on the planet, but saying he is a better downfield passer than Mahomes is highly debatable. My only slight about Allen is his underwhelming deep ball % 

 

He HAS the power to sling it 70+ yards, but he uses his arm strength more so fitting the ball into tight windows. 
 

Mahomes on the other hand lost Tyreek Hill which certainly caused him to readjust his game. He is still better than Allen in that regard IMO

 

Now I can list numerous things Josh is better at too…

[Cash]

2 hours ago, Special K said:

This is not meant to be a slight at McDermott, but if you take Andy Reid away from Mahomes and give him to Josh Allen, the Bills would likely be the ones with 3 Super Bowl titles right now.

 

I truly think Andy Reid is the difference in these two very closely matched QB's and teams in general.

 

I fully agree with this.  I'm generally pro-McDermott.  But unless/until he wins it all, there's no way to put him even on the same tier as Reid as a HC.  And in terms of offensive coaches, Reid has a strong argument as the #1 in NFL history.  McDermott + Daboll/Dorsey/Brady is a massive step down.

 

If coaching matters AT ALL, then that has to be taken into account when comparing Allen to Mahomes.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, wjag said:

I think the difference is Mahommes makes THE play when they need it the most.  

And his receivers catch the ball in that moment.  If Diggs and Kincaid can catch the ball on their respective blunder plays, we might have 2 Lombardis 

[DaVinci]

Either Reid tought Mahomes to read a defense better or he is instinctively better at reading a defense better than Allen.

Edited August 27 by DaVinci