Finding the best QB in NFL using only Advanced Stats…

[BillytheKid]

I did an experiment. I used only advanced stats and AI to find out who the best QB was. I’m making a video for it. I have all of the stats and the voiceovers down for it. Below is the script of it. 
i haven’t got the images for it yet. I want to get it out and finished in the next week or two. Found some very interesting things. 
It’s about an 8 to 9 minute read below. Let me know if you guys think there is any flaws in it. I tried to not be as bias as possible and just let the advanced stats do the talking. Everything is explained below with how I did it and the scoring. If you read it I hope you enjoy. Some interesting finds. 

——————————————————

This is not hype.

This is not opinions.

It’s execution—measured across 26 advanced metrics to find the best quarterback of the 2024–25 NFL season.

No bias. No favoritism. Just pure football truth—backed by data.

 

Traditional stats tell part of the story—but they don’t let you compare great quarterbacks with different styles.

Advanced metrics track every throw’s quality, every risk, every decision.

They strip out noise—and reveal what execution really looks like.

 

I graded every quarterback across four execution quadrants:

Passing. Rushing. Turnover control. Sack discipline.

Each quadrant had a defined role—and a defined weight.

 

Also each quarterback must have played at least 15 games during the season to qualify.

 

Inside each quadrant, we used between two and eleven advanced stats—26 total.

Every QB was evaluated on the same 26.

The result? A 260-point grading system that rewards clean, complete execution.

 

To score every metric fairly, we used a 10-point scale.

First place got 10 points, second 9, third 8—all the way down to 1 point for 10th place.

Finish outside the top 10? You got zero.

And when there was a tie, we averaged the tied positions.

So if two QBs tied for second, that’s 8.5 points each.

One rule. One scale. All season.

 

Passing isn’t just the foundation of quarterbacking—it’s the foundation of the Vault.

 

This quadrant uses 11 advanced metrics, worth 110 total points, to evaluate everything from ball placement to pressure control.

 

We begin with Intended Air Yards per Attempt and Completed Air Yards per Completion.

These measure how far a quarterback pushes the ball vertically—before and after the catch.

 

Next: Bad Throw Percentage and On-Target Percentage.

One shows how often the QB missed. The other shows how often he nailed the throw.

 

Drop Rate isolates when the receiver failed to finish.

Yards After Catch per Completion helps us separate QB value from receiver value.

 

Then we grade timing with Pocket Time and Time to Throw.

Was the ball coming out fast? Was the pocket steady—or did the QB make it look that way?

 

Finally: Pressure Rate Faced and Pressure-to-Sack Percentage.

How often was the QB under heat—and what did he do with it?

 

Passing execution isn’t just about throwing. It’s about decision-making, movement, and results.

 

Then comes mobility—because passing might be the plan, but not every play goes as planned.

 

The Rushing quadrant uses 10 metrics, worth up to 100 points, to capture a quarterback’s legs as a weapon.

 

We looked at Yards Before and After Contact per Attempt.

Broken Tackles. Tackles for Loss.

 

Then we counted Explosive Runs of 10, 20, and 30+ yards.

Not every run is created equal. Some change the scoreboard.

 

Rush Directionality showed where QBs had the most success—left, middle, or right.

Red Zone Rushing graded their value in short-yardage chaos.

 

And finally: Rush EPA—expected points added—put a number on how much value they truly generated.

 

This wasn’t about highlight runs. It was about situational damage.

That’s what mobility means in the Vault.

 

But creating yards is only half the job.

The other half? Protecting them.

Let’s talk about turnovers—because execution without security doesn’t last.

 

The Turnovers quadrant used just two metrics—worth 20 points—but they carried weight.

 

First: Total Turnovers.

Every interception. Every fumble lost.

 

Then: Turnover-Worthy Plays.

Throws that should’ve been picked. Fumbles that a teammate bailed out.

Because results can lie—but risk always tells the truth.

 

Execution means protecting the ball—on purpose and by principle.

 

Every quarterback gets pressured.

Not every quarterback makes it worse.

 

Sack Discipline used three advanced metrics, worth 30 points, to measure how well a QB avoids negative plays when the pocket breaks down.

 

Sack Rate per Dropback graded how often pressure turned into points for the defense.

Pressure-to-Sack Percentage revealed whether the QB escaped—or created his own problem.

And Time to Throw added crucial context: was the sack on the line, or on the guy holding the football?

 

It’s not just about avoiding losses.

It’s about eliminating them before they begin.

 

—

 

But before we show any scores—let’s make one thing clear:

Not every quarterback plays the same game.

 

Some guys, like Joe Burrow, pass on nearly every play.

Others, like Lamar Jackson, attack with their legs far more often.

 

So we made the grading fair—for every style.

We weighted each quarterback’s passing and rushing scores based on how often they actually passed or ran.

 

If a QB passed the ball 93% of the time, we took 93% of their passing score and 7% of their rushing score.

If someone ran 30% of the time, we multiplied their rushing score by that rate.

Everything aligned with real play-calling data—not guesses or assumptions.

 

For example:

Say Burrow scored 95 points in passing and 40 in rushing. He passed 92% of the time.

That gives him 87.4 for passing and 3.2 for rushing—total: 90.6.

Now say Lamar scored 80 passing and 85 rushing, with a 68% pass rate.

His weighted totals would be 54.4 passing, 27.2 rushing—total: 81.6.

 

That’s just a sample to show how the formula works—not actual Vault scores.

 

Because in the Vault, it’s not about how you should play.

It’s about how well you play your game.

 

Four quadrants.

Twenty-six metrics.

Two hundred and sixty possible points.

 

Passing measured precision, timing, and command.

Rushing captured mobility, contact balance, and explosive damage.

Turnovers exposed risk, recklessness, and who could be trusted.

Sack Discipline showed who turned pressure into poise—and who turned it into points for the other team.

 

Each quadrant stood on its own.

But together?

They formed the most complete picture of quarterback execution we’ve ever built.

 

The tape is real.

The numbers are real.

And now—it’s time to see

Before we crown the full top 10 execution quarterbacks—

Let’s spotlight the QBs who dominated each individual quadrant.

 

Passing:

The top 3 in precision, depth, and timing:

 

1. Patrick Mahomes (92)- creativity, touch, trust in chaos. 

 

2. Joe Burrow (91)- footwork, ball placement, and absolute command. 

 

3. Jared Goff (87)- Trust built production, success within structure not outside it. 

 

Rushing:

The top 3 in ground damage and improvisation:

 

1. Jayden Daniel’s (42)- Unmatched explosiveness, elite scramble EPA, and broken tackle magic

 

2. Lamar Jackson (40)-  Broken tackles, big plays, unstoppable in the red zone

 

3. Josh Allen (34)- Downhill power with red zone finishing ability

 

Turnover Control:

The QBs you could trust not to blow it:

 

1. Jayden Daniel’s (17)- Elite ball security, took risks without recklessness

 

2. Patrick Mahomes (14.5)-  Controlled chaos, trusted windows, avoided traps

 

Tied at 3.

Josh Allen (14) and Joe Burrow (14)-

 

Different styles same result: clean tape under pressure

 

 

Sack Discipline:

The 3 best at beating pressure:

 

1. Patrick Mahomes- extended plays without creating losses

 

2. Joe Burrow- Trusts timing, throws early, avoids disaster

 

3. Josh Allen- Elite sack avoidance, lowest pressure to sack percentage, and quick decision making

 

These were the quadrant kings.

But consistency across all four is what earns you a spot in the Vault.

 

---

We’ve accounted for every stat.

We’ve applied real usage weights to passing and rushing.

And now—each quarterback has their final Vault Score, out of 260.

 

Let’s count down the 10 most complete execution quarterbacks from the 2024–25 NFL season.

 

Built on balance.

Defined by discipline.

Welcome to the top 10.

 

---

 

#10 – Baker Mayfield (94.0)

“He tightened the chaos.”

Tamed the wild plays, embraced structure throws, and managed risk better than ever. Earned this spot with just enough discipline and a top-10 passing score.

 

---

 

#9 – Jalen Hurts (106.0)

“Dangerous legs, high-stakes tape.”

Top-tier rushing impact and explosive threat—but cost himself with sacks and turnover volatility. The tape swung hard both ways.

 

---

 

#8 – Jordan Love (107.0)

“Started rough. Finished sharp.”

Execution jumped post-Thanksgiving: cleaner reads, safer throws, stronger structure. Vault rewards that kind of growth.

 

---

 

#7 – Jared Goff (119.0)

“Surgical in structure.”

Third-best passing score in the league. TWP rate near zero. He may not move much—but he moved the offense better than most.

 

---

 

#6 – C.J. Stroud (133.5)

“Second-year poise, veteran control.”

Vault top 6 in both passing and sack control. Calm presence, consistent mechanics, and a decision-maker you could trust.

 

---

 

#5 – Lamar Jackson (146.0)

“This was Lamar in full control.”

He blended rushing explosion with passing efficiency—and drastically cut back on risk.

In fact, if this were only about rushing and passing, Lamar would’ve edged out the top spot I’ve Allen by 1 point. 

But sack discipline and turnover rate pulled him back just a touch.

 

Still, this was his most polished execution tape in years.

 

—

 

#4 – Patrick Mahomes (147.5)

“Less chaos. More control.”

Mahomes posted elite scores in three of four quadrants, including the best sack control in football.

This was a version of Mahomes that played clean, smart, and within structure—even if the weapons fell short.

 

The wild throws were optional. The precision was permanent.

 

—

 

#3 – Joe Burrow (151.0)

“He didn’t need the full season. He just needed rhythm.”

Burrow missed time, but when he played, he passed like only Burrow can:

footwork, timing, and a near-flawless understanding of pressure.

 

Top 3 in passing. Top 3 in sack discipline. No panic. Just precision.

 

—

 

#2 – Jayden Daniels (152.0)

“He played like a five-year vet in year one.”

Daniels was the #1 rusher and #1 in turnover avoidance—with enough passing control to hold up against any QB on this list.

He delivered value everywhere on the field—and didn’t make the rookie mistakes.

 

Efficiency. Composure. And the best Vault debut we’ve ever scored.

 

—

 

#1 – Josh Allen (156.0)

“He didn’t just fix his flaws—he buried them.”

Top 3 in three of four quadrants.

Allen weaponized his legs, tightened his decision-making, and became the best sack-avoider in football.

He didn’t just score points—he erased mistakes.

 

This was Josh Allen’s most complete season of execution.

And in the Vault, completeness wins.

 

[Richard Noggin]

Seems like Mahomes got robbed a little, compared to Allen. From a cursory/high level skim. (Not that I agree with that conclusion.)

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Reading this was like listening to an old Paul Harvey's 'The Rest of the Story'.

 

You may have got to the result you wanted, but it was torture getting there.

 

"And do you know who that newspaper boy was, Americans?  Who trudged through snow and rain to bring Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public their morning news, often before sunrise?"

 

"Guddammit, man, get to the payoff!!!"

[hondo in seattle]

Well done.

 

Ultimately, all these things are subjective.  What you decided to measure, how you weighed things, your scoring system, etc. means this is opinion, not science.

 

But still cool, especially with Josh on top.  

[US Egg]

Couldn’t get through it, started getting a headache. I’ll just take your word for it.

[Mr. WEO]

So Josh Allen is the best QB?  phew, lol.

 

I appreciate the work done here.  Josh had a better O-line play this year, but as far as "sack discipline"--he was far and away the best at avoiding sacks--mainly because of his legs and savvy.  His sack% is a half of Mahomes's and about 1/3 of Burrows.  Mahomes is an elite scrambler though.  Burrow, not as much.

 

Jaden Daniels will be a superstar.  Caleb Williams isn't long for this league. He will be in the Justin Fields pipeline to journeyman soon. 

 

The Bears draft Fields, after his rookie season the Bears ownership dumps the GM.  Hire Poles.  Picks Williams.  Commanders ownership dumps GM and hire Peters.  He takes Daniels.

 

Which team had 100 year old owner?

 

 

lol.  imagine being a Bears fan.  No better than Cleveland. "Slaughterhouse of Dreams"...

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Reading this was like listening to an old Paul Harvey's 'The Rest of the Story'.

 

You may have got to the result you wanted, but it was torture getting there.

 

"And do you know who that newspaper boy was, Americans?  Who trudged through snow and rain to bring Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public their morning news, often before sunrise?"

 

"Guddammit, man, get to the payoff!!!"

He’s Ridgeway, but to his friends, Ridge, and that’s the rest of the story.  Good day.  (My dad liked listening to him when I was a kid).

 

 

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

Well done.

 

Ultimately, all these things are subjective.  What you decided to measure, how you weighed things, your scoring system, etc. means this is opinion, not science.

 

But still cool, especially with Josh on top.  

While I agree with you Hondo, he did put a HC, of a lot of work into it.  I was appreciative of his efforts.

[DapperCam]

This feels a little bit like find the conclusion you want and work your way backwards to find the justification.

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

#3 – Joe Burrow (151.0)

“He didn’t need the full season. He just needed rhythm.”

Burrow missed time, but when he played, he passed like only Burrow can:

footwork, timing, and a near-flawless understanding of pressure.

 

Top 3 in passing. Top 3 in sack discipline. No panic. Just precision.

 

First, was a cool read and cool work.  Ive been using AI to do some really cool things, and seeing others use it in cool ways is always interesting.  So kudos sir

 

But this here makes me wonder about the accuracy, as one of the issues with AI is consistent accuracy in some use cases.  Burrow played all 17 games last year and didn't miss anytime.  He did in 2023, so if it is coming to conclusions where its weighing time missed by a player who didn't miss anytime it brings into question what other factors its miscalculated.  

[MJS]

CJ Stroud sucked last year. How is he top 6? Unless it is using his rookie year as well.

[ColoradoBills]

Analysis is fun BUT human beings are full of emotions and all kinds of things that cannot be measured by analytics by both coaches and players.

Every football play has 22 players all moving at various speeds and directions.

How many yards does a team (or player) have in any given year is interesting.  How many TDs, sacks, turnovers all mean something BUT.......

 
In the end.   It's a game of inches.

Edited 4 hours ago by ColoradoBills

[Goin Breakdown]

Before I get to the recipe let me first tell you about my childhood and my grandmother on the day she found out what bunions were. 

[BillytheKid]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First, was a cool read and cool work.  Ive been using AI to do some really cool things, and seeing others use it in cool ways is always interesting.  So kudos sir

 

But this here makes me wonder about the accuracy, as one of the issues with AI is consistent accuracy in some use cases.  Burrow played all 17 games last year and didn't miss anytime.  He did in 2023, so if it is coming to conclusions where its weighing time missed by a player who didn't miss anytime it brings into question what other factors its miscalculated.  

First off thanks!
 

It factored in playing time for every QB. I had it exclude any and only QB’s that didn’t play 15 games or more. 

 

I went back and double checked it as good as I could. 

Edited 2 hours ago by BillytheKid

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

43 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Before I get to the recipe let me first tell you about my childhood and my grandmother on the day she found out what bunions were... 

...on her six toes on each foot. 🤨

*
In some areas, AI might have advantages, but for long form composition, I think AI should FO. 

[BillytheKid]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

CJ Stroud sucked last year. How is he top 6? Unless it is using his rookie year as well.

It’s advanced stats. Which are very different than regular stats. 
So it takes into account whether the throws were actually good throws and the receiver just didn’t catch it and so on and so forth. 
Turnover worthy plays.

 

Not sure if you read the whole thing or not as it explains how I got to where I got with it. 

[JerseyBills]

With an elite OL guaranteed for foreseeable future,  allowing limited sacks, giving us a run game, Allen will continue to dominate. 

Look at the draft and FA, basically all defense,  If the D can get back to elite, this team will dominate 

 

Daniel's is a freaking stud, glad hes in the NFC 

[BillytheKid]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

This feels a little bit like find the conclusion you want and work your way backwards to find the justification.

Appreciate the feed back.
 

Actually it wasn’t. I was trying to not come to any specific conclusion. I used a bunch of advanced stats and tried to find who was the best. Allen didn’t finish first in anyone category.

 

I tried to use a point system that was fair. I also weighted the passing and running based on what percentage of time each QB threw the ball vs ran it so that way there wasn’t a giant one size fits all which would be unfair. 

 
I tried to make it well rounded. Obviously you could exclude certain things and get different results. 
 

I could take out everything and just use passing and Mahomes would be the best QB last year still. Because he had the best all around advanced passing stats even though people thought he wasn’t good. He actually was good overall outside things on his offense that weren’t related to him caused his regular stats to not be as good. 
 

If we just did running, Jayden Daniels was actually better than Lamar overall. 
 

So I guess it’s how you wanna look at it. I was just trying to see what the advanced stats using many of them would find with the help of AI and that’s how it worked out. 

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

Analysis is fun BUT human beings are full of emotions and all kinds of things that cannot be measured by analytics by both coaches and players.

Every football play has 22 players all moving at various speeds and directions.

How many yards does a team (or player) have in any given year is interesting.  How many TDs, sacks, turnovers all mean something BUT.......

 
In the end.   It's a game of inches.

Agree with you but that’s why I used advanced stats because they tell a better story in my opinion compared to just using regular stats. 
 

Anyways was a fun and interesting exercise. 

Edited 2 hours ago by BillytheKid

[MJS]

1 hour ago, BillytheKid said:

It’s advanced stats. Which are very different than regular stats. 
So it takes into account whether the throws were actually good throws and the receiver just didn’t catch it and so on and so forth. 
Turnover worthy plays.

 

Not sure if you read the whole thing or not as it explains how I got to where I got with it. 

Yeah, there is no way he had good advanced stats.