McBean's Drafting vs. Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers (draft position/impact players?)

[RoscoeParrish]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Considering KC, Philly, and Detroit are all above the Bills in defensive spending, it seems like the Bills are on the right track, right?

KC and Philly also both fired their DCs and changed their defensive schemes as well after their defense got annihilated in the playoffs.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

KC and Philly also both fired their DCs and changed their defensive schemes as well after their defense got annihilated in the playoffs.

Are you talking about KC pre Spagnuolo? He has been there since 2019.

 

The Bills moved on from a DC as well in that timespan, btw (Leslie Frazier).

[Mikie2times]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Considering KC, Philly, and Detroit are all above the Bills in defensive spending, it seems like the Bills are on the right track, right?

For the most part I would say. Most of the teams that are contenders also spent considerably more at WR if they didn’t already have a stacked room. So I do think those concerns have some validity. But DL and DB seem to be the most premium positions by the higher performing teams with WR third. 

[SoTier]

32 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

The difference between a very good team and a Super Bowl team

 

The team with the most talent frequently doesn't win the Super Bowl -- or even get to the Super Bowl.   Injuries derailed the Lions last season in the divisional round in the NFC.  Turnovers in the divisional round and a dropped 2 point conversion by an All Pro TE put the Ravens on the sidelines for the AFC Championship.

 

[BillsPride12]

30 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The team with the most talent frequently doesn't win the Super Bowl -- or even get to the Super Bowl.   Injuries derailed the Lions last season in the divisional round in the NFC.  Turnovers in the divisional round and a dropped 2 point conversion by an All Pro TE put the Ravens on the sidelines for the AFC Championship.

 

Injuries and staying healthy are absolutely a big factor in making it to the finish line.  But having a less talented roster doesn't increase your odds of winning a Super Bowl either?  I don't understand the point you are trying to make here

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Or we just squib kick it.  It's funny how one simple stupid decision can dramatically impact narratives and legacies.

 

Sure, a properly executed squib kick puts us in a better position to win that game than a touchback, but there's no guarantee.

 

The next regular season game we played KC we scored with 16 seconds left in the 1st half, squibbed it, and they still scored a FG before the half ended.

 

There's also a famous playoff game we were involved in where we scored with 16 seconds left in the game, squibbed it, and it was returned it for a TD. 

 

I've never had a problem with the touchback decision (the miscommunication over the decision is a separate issue). All we had to do was not go into prevent and play an actual defense for 1 or 2 plays. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Sure, a properly executed squib kick puts us in a better position to win that game than a touchback, but there's no guarantee.

 

The next regular season game we played KC we scored with 16 seconds left in the 1st half, squibbed it, and they still scored a FG before the half ended.

 

There's also a famous playoff game we were involved in where we scored with 16 seconds left in the game, squibbed it, and it was returned it for a TD. 

 

I've never had a problem with the touchback decision (the miscommunication over the decision is a separate issue). All we had to do was not go into prevent and play an actual defense for 1 or 2 plays. 

I was more responding to this belief that we're just so far way from the Chiefs and we'll never get by Mahomes.  We lost by what?  Six in OT, three, and three against them two of the last three years.  Does that narrative even start if Gabe catches the TD with 9 seconds left instead of 13?  I wish we added more true play makers on offense but upgrading the defense even a little could do the trick.  That's assuming the Chiefs are more in our heads than they are the player's.

[Comebackkid]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Considering KC, Philly, and Detroit are all above the Bills in defensive spending, it seems like the Bills are on the right track, right?

thats what i was looking at, funny that the knock on Detroit was their D.

If our D played as well during the playoffs as reg season we'd have at least 2 titles

[ganesh]

On 5/15/2025 at 3:27 AM, JohnNord said:

The whole Beane vs. Brett Veach was a topic on “It’s Always Gameday in Buffalo.”  Sal felt that Beane drafting was just as good as Veach with some hits and a few Day 1 and Day 2 misses.  Bove seemed to think that Veach was better based on the fact he selected 3 All Pro players (Humphrey, Sneed, McDuffie) whereas Beane has 0 currently.  I would tend to agree with the latter.  
 

 

There is also a matter of comparing two coaches named Reid and McDermott !!!

[SoTier]

11 hours ago, BillsPride12 said:

Injuries and staying healthy are absolutely a big factor in making it to the finish line.  But having a less talented roster doesn't increase your odds of winning a Super Bowl either?  I don't understand the point you are trying to make here

 

My point is that talent is not necessarily the difference between "a very good team" and a "Super Bowl team".   Talent, injuries and coaching are important factors, but so is luck, both good and bad.   Most SB winners "catch lightning in a bottle" at least once in their road to a Lombardi.

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

My point is that talent is not necessarily the difference between "a very good team" and a "Super Bowl team".   Talent, injuries and coaching are important factors, but so is luck, both good and bad.   Most SB winners "catch lightning in a bottle" at least once in their road to a Lombardi.

 

Since 2018 (I couldn't go back further with the site I used)

• Every Super Bowl winner but one has been Top 5 DVOA in the regular season (The only exception was Brady and the Patriots in 2018)
• 11 of 14 participants in the Super Bowl since 2018 were Top 5 in DVOA

Good teams are getting to Super Bowls and Winning Super Bowls

 

Buffalo is the best regular season team since 2020 by any measure, but they aren't winning or getting to Super Bowls. Eventually that starts to stick out at the level we have done it with.

• Buffalo has more Top 5 DVOA finishes than any team in football since 2020 with 5 and is in a tie for 5 total with KC dating back to 2018
• Teams with at least 4 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore and Buffalo
• Teams with at least 3 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans
• Teams with at least 2 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas

We have had prolific success since 2020. Nobody has accomplished what we have as consistently as we have in the regular season. At the same time, nobody has underachieved more in the playoffs. The teams that have also underachieved like Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas isn't a good group you want to be associated with.  I don't think any of us look at it as unlucky either.

 

Lamar has given games away. LaFleur has put the Packers in horrible positions. Half the board just got done trying to convince me Sean Payton is an all time playoff hack outside of his SB win. Dallas is the most paper soft team in the game. 

 

So are we more like those teams or are we more like Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Rams, etc? It seems like people are so sure we are more like the Super Bowl group. But the longer this goes, the more questions will get asked and the more we look like the ones who just won't get it done.  

 

Chart below

 

 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Mikie2times

[LABILLBACKER]

16 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Sure, a properly executed squib kick puts us in a better position to win that game than a touchback, but there's no guarantee.

 

The next regular season game we played KC we scored with 16 seconds left in the 1st half, squibbed it, and they still scored a FG before the half ended.

 

There's also a famous playoff game we were involved in where we scored with 16 seconds left in the game, squibbed it, and it was returned it for a TD. 

 

I've never had a problem with the touchback decision (the miscommunication over the decision is a separate issue). All we had to do was not go into prevent and play an actual defense for 1 or 2 plays. 

Well if we were dumb enough to not get the squib called, we were never going to be smart enough to call the proper D those last 2 plays.

[Thurman#1]

On 5/15/2025 at 2:14 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

Taron Johnson was an AP-2 a few years ago and Josh was an AP-2 last season (and the league MVP).

 

Wyatt Teller, a Beane draftee, has 2 AP-2 and 3 PBs.  

 

 

This!!!

[Thurman#1]

On 5/15/2025 at 3:24 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

We haven't drafted an elite pass rusher in the Allen era. And until we find one, Patrick will continue to one up us.

 

 

I don't think we need an elite pass rusher. Just a very good one. Von wasn't an elite guy anymore when we got him. But IMO if he'd stayed healthy we'd have a Lombardi or two right now.

 

What elite pass rushers have the other teams being compared here drafted? Chris Jones came on a trade.

 

All depends on your definition of elite, but generally elite pass rushers go in the top ten, and many years the highest part of it.

 

Some elite guys do go later, no question. But there just aren't many elite pass rushers, period. Much less elite pass rushers drafted later.

[eball]

Why is this thread titled “McBean?”  You know McDermott doesn’t do the scouting or drafting, right?