The Bills Cap Situation

[GASabresIUFan]

I have the Bills currently spending 267,830,925 so far.  This figure included the value of the cap hit for 50 players, the projected cost of the 3 unsigned draft picks ($5,805,358), and dead cap of $30,755,741.  The dead cap figure includes $29,421,258 for void years and dead cap hits for players previously cut plus $1,334,483 for guys who will be cut.  In the last category, the biggest hits come from Dane Jackson, Cam Lewis and Prather.  We can save about $300K in cap by keeping Prather and cutting Shenault.  

 

The biggest question is how do the Bills and handle the cap associated with idiots Hoecht and Ogunjobi.  My understanding is that their signing bonuses hit the cap immediately, but not their base salary until they return.  What I don't know is how things like a roster bonus or workout bonus affect the cap now.

 

Hoecht ($4,488,000) and Ogunjobi ($4,106,684) each have $3 mill base salaries.  Hoecht's roster bonus is 510K and Ogunjobi's is 150K.  If add in the entire cap hit to the Bills current expenditures, I have the Bills at $276,425,609 on a cap of 279 mill.  However, the Bills gain $2,117,647 in savings from the games checks forfeited by Hoecht and Ogunjobi.  

 

All in all the Bills seem to have about 4.6 mill to play with.    I know there are other adjustments, such as carryover from last year, but the information on those adjustments isn't clear.  

 

I went through this exercise because the two websites, spotrac.com and overthecap.com, only calculate the cap based on the top 51 largest contracts.  I wanted to see what the team actually looks like based on the 53 players who will most likely make the roster and have a spreadsheet I could utilize to determine what if scenarios such as Ingram vs Lewis for the final DB slot or Codrington vs Shenault for the KR slot.  Right now I have Ingram and Shenault on the roster.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I have the Bills currently spending 267,830,925 so far.  This figure included the value of the cap hit for 50 players, the projected cost of the 3 unsigned draft picks ($5,805,358), and dead cap of $30,755,741.  The dead cap figure includes $29,421,258 for void years and dead cap hits for players previously cut plus $1,334,483 for guys who will be cut.  In the last category, the biggest hits come from Dane Jackson, Cam Lewis and Prather.  We can save about $300K in cap by keeping Prather and cutting Shenault.  

 

The biggest question is how do the Bills and handle the cap associated with idiots Hoecht and Ogunjobi.  My understanding is that their signing bonuses hit the cap immediately, but not their base salary until they return.  What I don't know is how things like a roster bonus or workout bonus affect the cap now.

 

Hoecht ($4,488,000) and Ogunjobi ($4,106,684) each have $3 mill base salaries.  Hoecht's roster bonus is 510K and Ogunjobi's is 150K.  If add in the entire cap hit to the Bills current expenditures, I have the Bills at $276,425,609 on a cap of 279 mill.  However, the Bills gain $2,117,647 in savings from the games checks forfeited by Hoecht and Ogunjobi.  

 

All in all the Bills seem to have about 4.6 mill to play with.    I know there are other adjustments, such as carryover from last year, but the information on those adjustments isn't clear.  

 

I went through this exercise because the two websites, spotrac.com and overthecap.com, only calculate the cap based on the top 51 largest contracts.  I wanted to see what the team actually looks like based on the 53 players who will most likely make the roster and have a spreadsheet I could utilize to determine what if scenarios such as Ingram vs Lewis for the final DB slot or Codrington vs Shenault for the KR slot.  Right now I have Ingram and Shenault on the roster.

Appreciate your work on this. Just one question, why are we looking at it through the lens of 53 instead of 51? I am a little confused. Is it in case guys come in and out of the top 51? Just wondering and appreciate your work!!

[GASabresIUFan]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Appreciate your work on this. Just one question, why are we looking at it through the lens of 53 instead of 51? I am a little confused. Is it in case guys come in and out of the top 51? Just wondering and appreciate your work!!

Because when the season starts the 279 mill cap hit applies to the 53 players that make the roster, the players on IR and the PS.  So I am trying to see after the 53 players how much room Beane actually has to play with to accommodate the IR, the PS and in season changes.  A team needs about $4,000,000 just to accommodate a 16 player practice squad.   The more vets on the PS, the bigger that number grows. 

 

The 51 contracts is only relevant for the offseason.  

[jkeerie]

Spotrac is showing the Bills are $211M over the cap.  I think someone may have misplaced a decimal point or two.

[fergie's ire]

I seem to recall from Von Miller's salary that bonuses only count on this year's cap if they are below the projected total...but if above then it counts against next year (if they reach it).  The projection is based on last year's performance.  So, since Von was injured the year before, he was only projected to have like 2 sacks last year.  Therefore, the bonuses he received for sacks more than that count this year.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

I seem to recall from Von Miller's salary that bonuses only count on this year's cap if they are below the projected total...but if above then it counts against next year (if they reach it).  The projection is based on last year's performance.  So, since Von was injured the year before, he was only projected to have like 2 sacks last year.  Therefore, the bonuses he received for sacks more than that count this year.

I'm not sure how carry over bonuses are calculated.  I assumed Miller's were included in his 15 mill dead cap calculation, but honestly I'm not sure.  

Edited Friday at 09:48 PM by GASabresIUFan

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I'm not sure how carry over bonuses are calculated.  I assumed Miller's were included in his 15 mill dead cap calculation, but honestly I'm not sure.  

 

Reconciliation of bonuses would be included in cap adjustments and be reflected in the team’s adjusted cap number. 

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Reconciliation of bonuses would be included in cap adjustments and be reflected in the team’s adjusted cap number. 

 

Price?

 

Is that you?

 

Price Waterhouse?

 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 hours ago, jkeerie said:

Spotrac is showing the Bills are $211M over the cap.  I think someone may have misplaced a decimal point or two.

 

Spotrac is jacked up on a bunch of their stuff right now. If you go to the general cap pages, like QB cap rankings for example, they have Josh listed twice in every category.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Price?

 

Is that you?

 

Price Waterhouse?

 

I have always been kind of a numbers guy. 

[BearNorth]

This could help a little re the two suspended newbies.  

Signing Bonus Recoupment:

Teams can recoup a portion of a player's signing bonus if the suspension is related to PEDs or substance abuse violations. 

[B-Man]

On 5/9/2025 at 3:59 PM, jkeerie said:

Spotrac is showing the Bills are $211M over the cap.  I think someone may have misplaced a decimal point or two.

Well let’s go with them then. 
😆

[BarleyNY]

On 5/9/2025 at 3:59 PM, jkeerie said:

Spotrac is showing the Bills are $211M over the cap.  I think someone may have misplaced a decimal point or two.

They probably don’t have info on a restructured contract yet. Sometimes it takes a few days to get out to them. OTC is the most accurate source for cap info by the way. If there’s a discrepancy between them and Spotrac, go with OTC’s info and analysis. 

[Rubes]

Joe Marino on his latest podcast has the Bills at $2.6 million under the cap, before the signing of the draft picks. He expects a move to be made soon to clear some more space for the season (not for any impending signing).

 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

They probably don’t have info on a restructured contract yet. Sometimes it takes a few days to get out to them. OTC is the most accurate source for cap info by the way. If there’s a discrepancy between them and Spotrac, go with OTC’s info and analysis. 

 

This happens all the time.  They are working the database for the Bills.  Every player right now is being counted twice.

They will have it fixed in a few hours.  Tomorrow for sure.  I laughed this morning when I saw 168 players signed!

 

As for the cap.  the Bills are tight getting the rookie signed.  Beane is going to have to make a small move soon IMO.

[SoonerBillsFan]

It's all BS right now and honestly,why care?  Beane has this under control 

[BarleyNY]

15 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

This happens all the time.  They are working the database for the Bills.  Every player right now is being counted twice.

They will have it fixed in a few hours.  Tomorrow for sure.  I laughed this morning when I saw 168 players signed!

 

As for the cap.  the Bills are tight getting the rookie signed.  Beane is going to have to make a small move soon IMO.

 

Doubling a team’s roster is a mistake that happens regularly on Spotrac. I would guess that it has to do with an automatic update. 

 

Guessing Dawkins and Knox restructures are what will happen. That’ll give them enough to get through the season. 

Also of important note this season the Bills are currently second in cash spending. They had been spending in the too 5 or 10 for a few seasons - certainly a good clip - but dropped way back to the mid 20s last season. Good to see that they ramped it back up. 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Doubling a team’s roster is a mistake that happens regularly on Spotrac. I would guess that it has to do with an automatic update. 

 

Guessing Dawkins and Knox restructures are what will happen. That’ll give them enough to get through the season. 

 

Pushing more Knox money till next year is not a good idea to me.

Dawkins OR a June 1st cut for DQ Jones is my guess.

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Pushing more Knox money till next year is not a good idea to me.

Dawkins OR a June 1st cut for DQ Jones is my guess.

 

Dawkins first to be sure, but they’ll need more than that. IMO Jones only gets cut if he’s totally cooked. He is a vested vet so if he’s here through week one then his whole season’s salary is guaranteed. It’s a tough cut with the rookies and O-gun on a six week suspension. Not that O was really any better than Jones last season. I think they keep Jones this one last season and hope for the best. That’s certainly not optimal, but I don’t see much in the way of other options at this point either. 

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Dawkins first to be sure, but they’ll need more than that. IMO Jones only gets cut if he’s totally cooked. He is a vested vet so if he’s here through week one then his whole season’s salary is guaranteed. It’s a tough cut with the rookies and O-gun on a six week suspension. Not that O was really any better than Jones last season. I think they keep Jones this one last season and hope for the best. That’s certainly not optimal, but I don’t see much in the way of other options at this point either. 

 

We'll see.  It should be interesting at DT.