Bills and Khalil Shakir agree to 4-year extension ($60.2 million/$32 million guaranteed)

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah, in reality it is more than that. It's as I predicted they'd have to do if they wanted to keep the 2025 hit down. A small pro-rated signing bonus (only $7m spread over 5 years) with another chunk - $9.1m - as an "option bonus" that triggers in 2026 and is amortized at $1.8m for the remaining 4 years of the deal and a 5th void year. 

 

If you cut him before the 2027 season there would be $4.2m of the original signing bonus left as dead cap and $7.28 of the 2026 option bonus left as dead cap. 

 

 

 

I was just coming here to say I heard the details posted by Spotrac aren't exactly right. There's about $7M in incentives missing and the dead cap hits are wrong. But the posted cap hits are apparently correct and will only change depending on if the incentives are hit. So it's still team friendly. We can get out of it in 2028 with around an $8.2M dead cap hit if we need to.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

They plan on filling it up.   2027 has a $10M base salary, 2028 has an $11M and 2029 $11.25M, they can convert those salaries to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the bonus.  

 

Exactly.  It set up to move money out perfectly if Khalil is playing well.  

It's really a good contract for all.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I was just coming here to say I heard the details posted by Spotrac aren't exactly right. There's about $7M in incentives missing and the dead cap hits are wrong. But the posted cap hits are apparently correct and will only change depending on if the incentives are hit. So it's still team friendly. We can get out of it in 2028 with around an $8.2M dead cap hit if we need to.

 

Spotrac have the AAV at $13.25m as well, so there might be something off there or he signed for less than reported. But on the option bonus stuff they are right, they just can't show that as counting yet because it doesn't count yet. Even though in reality we all know it will. 

[Shaw66]

Bringing this thread back to first page so all can admire how the Bills are building with their new generation of core players.

 

Skakir, Bernard, Rosseau.  Sweet.

 

And as another thread said, now Benford.

[Jrb1979]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Bringing this thread back to first page so all can admire how the Bills are building with their new generation of core players.

 

Skakir, Bernard, Rosseau.  Sweet.

 

And as another thread said, now Benford.

It's great they are signing their new core. I'm not sold they will ever win with this core either.  While they are very good to great players and have the Buffalo culture, they lack that elite ability.  

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

It's great they are signing their new core. I'm not sold they will ever win with this core either.  While they are very good to great players and have the Buffalo culture, they lack that elite ability.  

 

Agreed. This isn't enough. What would really complete the package would be an elite edge rusher. This vision of Miller and Rousseau was the correct vision when Beane made the deal, but Miller's injury made it impossible to achieve what they saw.  Rousseau's still young; he needs to be paired with an elite talent and the D line will be the force they need. 

 

My second choice for elite ability would be safety.  Third would be receiver, but I really think the Bills are fine at receiver with the concept they used last season.  

[Low Positive]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Agreed. This isn't enough. What would really complete the package would be an elite edge rusher. This vision of Miller and Rousseau was the correct vision when Beane made the deal, but Miller's injury made it impossible to achieve what they saw.  Rousseau's still young; he needs to be paired with an elite talent and the D line will be the force they need. 

 

My second choice for elite ability would be safety.  Third would be receiver, but I really think the Bills are fine at receiver with the concept they used last season.  

They are clearing cap space by extending players early in order to do something. That much is clear. We just have to wait to see what it is.

[Magox]

@GunnerBill we were talking about this the other day.   My feelings were that slot valuations are going up at a very rapid rate.  Godwin can play on the boundary but is primarily a slot guy but he just happens to play it at an elite level.
 

 

[GunnerBill]

On 2/26/2025 at 2:55 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Hmm. I think two things on this....

 

1. Shakir's 2024 is about the median year for Courtland Sutton. Okay, at this stage that is a career year for Shakir and if it still looks that way halfway through this deal it will have been an overpay, but if he can consistently be in the 800 yard range (I think he can personally) it will look better. 

 

2. Courtland Sutton signed his deal halfway through the 2021 season. It is three and a half years old. The salary cap has rocketed by over 50% in that period. The Broncos and Sutton are in talks currently about extending him again. It won't be for anything close to $15m, he will get way more.

 

As I predicted. $23m AAV. 

On 2/26/2025 at 8:00 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Cap is ever increasing--that's baked into all contract negotiations I would think.  Would Sutton get, say, 20 million per on his next contract?  I don't think so--it's still a ton for a WR2 type production. 

 

Well he did.

On 2/26/2025 at 9:01 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

And YES Sutton will get more than $20m AAV on his next deal. My guess is he will be closer to 25 than 20.

 

23 was closer to 25 than 20 when I went to school 😁

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Smart extension. Shakir is like the Wes Welker of this offense. Super deceptive quickness, RAC ability, and able to make catches amidst traffic. With an offense constantly changing, it’s good to have a few mainstays. Beane absolutely needs to figure out Cook.

[ganesh]

12 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Smart extension. Shakir is like the Wes Welker of this offense. Super deceptive quickness, RAC ability, and able to make catches amidst traffic. With an offense constantly changing, it’s good to have a few mainstays. Beane absolutely needs to figure out Cook.

Beane has to figure out Cook and McGovern.  It is a tough problem.   May be trade of Daquan Jones and Epenesa will help them with the cap management

[billsfan89]

10 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Beane has to figure out Cook and McGovern.  It is a tough problem.   May be trade of Daquan Jones and Epenesa will help them with the cap management

 

An extension for McGovern could most likely would lower his cap hit for this upcoming season. Cook could be very similar where his cap will either go down slightly or stay the same with an extension. The issue will be for the 2026 cap how the Cook and McGovern extensions work in. AJE and Jones are on expiring contracts there's not much cap space to be gained from cutting either. AJE simply can't be cut as he won't save cap space. Jones could yield some savings but it would be fairly marginal as he has a high dead cap hit. 

 

The Bills will likely have to do some restructuring to get under the cap enough and I suspect that a McGovern extension lowering his cap hit will be a part of that. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

55 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

An extension for McGovern could most likely would lower his cap hit for this upcoming season. Cook could be very similar where his cap will either go down slightly or stay the same with an extension. The issue will be for the 2026 cap how the Cook and McGovern extensions work in. AJE and Jones are on expiring contracts there's not much cap space to be gained from cutting either. AJE simply can't be cut as he won't save cap space. Jones could yield some savings but it would be fairly marginal as he has a high dead cap hit. 

 

The Bills will likely have to do some restructuring to get under the cap enough and I suspect that a McGovern extension lowering his cap hit will be a part of that. 

 

AJE and DQ would both require trades - acquiring team would take on the base salary.  

[billsfan89]

22 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

AJE and DQ would both require trades - acquiring team would take on the base salary.  

Not sure the Bills would be willing to trade either with the two defensive line suspensions

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

49 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Not sure the Bills would be willing to trade either with the two defensive line suspensions

 

Carter was banged up all year last year, and I haven't seen him to say - he's put on weight or strength to be a capable 1T starter (i know he had a pec injury last year which is tough in that position, and even when healthy enough to play you're limited in the weight room).  And then Walker while huge - is a rookie.  It's tough to just dump the presumed starter so that we can sign a player who is already currently under contract.

 

AJE makes more sense to trade potentially but that really requires solomon to take his job.    

Edited Wednesday at 01:55 PM by Bleeding Bills Blue