Mcdermott going for it on 4th and 3

[amprov56]

  On 9/15/2024 at 11:12 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

You don't get a shot at the Super Bowl if you don't make the playoffs.

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You are right on!

  On 9/15/2024 at 11:10 PM, newcam2012 said:

May I kindly remind you that making the playoffs isn't the ultimate goal of the team. Especially when you have a healthy #17. 

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Yup, need to be in the playoffs yo get in the SB~

[NewEra]

  On 9/15/2024 at 8:05 PM, newcam2012 said:

I'm not a stats guy. I do know 4th and 1 is much easier to make than 2 and 3 and do on. 

 

What does analytics say? 

 

I totally get going for it. I didn't hate going for it. I just was leaning towards kicking it. 

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I have no clue- comes down to trust. I trust Josh Allen.  I don’t trust Tyler Bass

[Buffalo716]

  On 9/15/2024 at 11:47 PM, NewEra said:

I have no clue- comes down to trust. I trust Josh Allen.  I don’t trust Tyler Bass

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The analytics say putting the ball in Josh hands is better than putting it on bass's foot too 

 

You don't win in the NFL kicking field goals

[billykay]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:23 PM, GunnerBill said:

Your perception is wrong. McDermott has consistently been one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers.

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Agree.

[billsfan89]

I feel like McD was very very conservative from 2017-2021. He would always not go for it when given the chance on 4th and short most times. Which was understandable when it was just Tyrod and early 2018-2019 Josh. But once Josh broke out as a stud in 2020 it became very frustrating for McD to take the ball out of Josh's hands. I think since 2022 he's been a lot more aggressive on 4th downs. 

[Doc Brown]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:55 PM, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

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Let me put this in layman's turn.  If I eat 40 Twinkies in 24 hours and you eat 60 in 48 hours you are not the more aggressive Twinkies eater.

[Manther]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:40 PM, 86poker said:

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

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Is that bottom 5 in attempts on 4th down or percentage of 4th downs attempted?  Just asking to understand better

[Big Turk]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:40 PM, 86poker said:

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

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That's because they don't get to 4th down very often because Allen converts 3rd downs at a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.

 

They also have punted the fewest times in the NFL over the last 4 years.

 

Not understanding context of statistics leads to the drawing of faulty conclusions using them.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2024 by Big Turk

[PromoTheRobot]

  On 9/16/2024 at 1:35 AM, newcam2012 said:

Well let me try it another way since you seem to be purposely missing the point. 

 

It comes down to expectations, entertainment value, desires, wants, and goals.

 

Football is football. The extremes of the above mentioned varies wildly. No need to go into examples here. It's pretty clear cut. 

 

Personally, I will be disappointed if the Bills don't hoist a Lombardi Trophy in my lifetime. My time is ticking away as you probably have many decades more than myself . A little void or scar remains from 4 failed SB appearances, the Tennessee miracle, and 13 seconds. 

 

I certainly can and do appreciate the tenure of Beane and McD. Football has been much much more enjoyable. Will this run and a generational franchise QB my expectations have changed. For 5 plus years, making it to the playoffs doesn't cut it. Having a losing record in the playoffs just doesn't cut it. Heartbreak losses just doesn't cut it. Losing home playoff games just doesn't cut it. I wanted more and got less. At some point, the making the playoffs isn't enough for this fan. Just once in my lifetime seems more appropriate. I'm seriously questioning if the Bills have the right people in charge to fulfill my lifelong dream of hoisting a Lombardi. 

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I have been a fan of this team since 1968. There have been many many more bad years than good. So appreciate the good years. I appreciate having Josh Allen, Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane. Winning it all isn't some magic code you unlock. It's a mix of talent, skill and luck.

 

I've also been a fan long enough to know that every year you don't win it all is no different than going 0-17. You suck. You're a failure.

 

So I know EXACTLY what you are saying. You think you can do better with a different regime. I don't. You keep trying. You don't blow it up.

Edited September 16, 2024 by PromoTheRobot

[Thurman#1]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:23 PM, GunnerBill said:

Your perception is wrong. McDermott has consistently been one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers.

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This. His first year or so less so, but after Allen became Allen, McDermott became aggressive.

  On 9/16/2024 at 2:08 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I have been a fan of this team since 1968. There have been many many more bad years than good. So appreciate the good years. I appreciate having Josh Allen, Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane. Winning it all isn't some magic code you unlock. It's a mix of talent, skill and luck.

 

I've also been a fan long enough to know that every year you don't win it all is no different than going 0-16. You suck. You're a failure.

 

So I know EXACTLY what you are saying. You think you can do better with a different regime. I don't. You keep trying. You don't blow it up.

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This'n.

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

  On 9/16/2024 at 3:33 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This. His first year or so less so, but after Allen became Allen, McDermott became aggressive.

 

 

This'n.

 

 

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McDermott got more aggressive when he thought he had a team that the odds favored.

[Thurman#1]

  On 9/16/2024 at 11:32 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

McDermott got more aggressive when he thought he had a team that the odds favored.

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Yeah, that and at the same time he started to pay more attention to analytics. He has always self-scouted and at the time he mentioned this.

[ganesh]

  On 9/15/2024 at 8:11 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

McDermott is one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers in the league.  Not sure if that need to be said.  

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That is a no brainer considering who is his QB

[T master]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:21 PM, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

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I would tend to agree depending on where the ball is on the field & how the opponents D is playing against the Bills . If they are with in the 20 and threatening to go in the end zone go for it ! You need confidence in your offense and they need to know you do !

 

And if close enough to the end zone say on the 5 yd line a turn over on downs sucks but isn't as bad if it was on the 45 say but points are always better !!! 

[BB2004]

  On 9/15/2024 at 12:23 PM, Billzgobowlin said:

I don't have numbers to support this but seems like if they have a good vibe of what is happening with the opponents defense they will go for it on fourth and short.  Later in games it's situational.

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I agree, good coaches with experience can get a feel of overall situations and when it’s a good idea to go for it or not. It was a high risk high reward play for us. And it set the tone the rest of the game.