Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Yeah, that could be. But McConkey went one pick after Coleman, so there might be other front offices out there who see it differently.

 

The Bills front office evidently saw opportunity for Coleman to improve upon his route running and his ability to gain separation. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that they're right.

My point was it looks like the Bills took what they think is the high ceiling player over what most thought was the more ready McConkey.   This would seem to indicate the FO intended to have some developmental time.   This makes more sense if your plan is to trade for a starting WR on the other side.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Literally everybody cramping on the pic without giving it a chance to succeed wouldn't know if a football was stuffed with feathers or filled with air 

 

I had half a dozen regional scouts tell me we got the steal of the draft when we picked him 

 

I had Florida State and Michigan State boosters text me and say we got the steal

 

I'm still on the road scouting the best high school players from now till october and then I go on the road for college in November 

 

And anybody crapping on this 21 year old kid is lost... He might not be the next Superstar 

 

But he certainly has the talent

 

 

 

I hate to be nosy but I gotta ask...   What kind of job has you scouting both high school and college players?  

 

If I'm prying where I don't belong, just let me know and I'll move on.  

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I hate to be nosy but I gotta ask...   What kind of job has you scouting both high school and college players?  

 

If I'm prying where I don't belong, just let me know and I'll move on.  

Well I scout high school kids

 

And in the off-season I basically mercenary scouting reports for draft eligible players but I was a regional scout years ago 

 

So I have a lot of friends who are regional scouts and they need eyes on the road which I am... And I go to college spring games.. about 3-4 a year.. and a good handful of college games (10+)

 

I am not scouting college kids full-time anymore I do high school kids but do college on the side 

 

 

Edited May 22 by Buffalo716

[Einstein's Dog]

17 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Dean Smith...the only man who could keep Jordan under 20 a game.

And we have so many people on this board okay with the Dean Smithing of our boy Josh. 

 

They applaud the idea that Beane/Brady restrain Josh and have him go toe to toe in dink and dunk fests.  People are okay with not having one proven WR1 on a team with the strongest arm in the game.  I'm not saying it can't work, Dean won the title playing that way, it's just not the route I want to see the Bills go.

[Neo]

39 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Dean Smith...the only man who could keep Jordan under 20 a game.

Was thinking just that.

20 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Well I scout high school kids

 

And in the off-season I basically mercenary scouting reports for draft eligible players but I was a regional scout years ago 

 

So I have a lot of friends who are regional scouts and they need eyes on the road which I am... And I go to college spring games.. about 3-4 a year.. and a good handful of college games

 

I am not a scouting college kids full-time anymore I do high school kids but I make scouting reports for draft eligible players 

 

 

I have put an asterisk next to your name to look for when I wade through 45,386 opinions on college talent.

 

Edit to add:

 

1)  Outside of the top three, who was your best WR prospect, period.

2)  Outside of the top three, who was your best WR prospect for Buffalo?

Edited May 22 by Neo

[BillsFanForever19]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Somewhat of a long read but worth your time.

 

One nugget that I found interesting:

 

 

There's a much publicized quote from Beane after the draft where he said something to the effect of "it will be hard for Coleman to start from day one." This is the messaging the team always puts out there for their rookies to hear. But he let slip their real plans in the chaos of draft weekend - Coleman is going to be the early favorite for the starting X receiver. And based on this article I think he's going to quickly earn the trust of the coaching staff and win that role.

 

Great find @HappyDays!

 

And I'm thrilled to hear the famous quote of "Coleman will have a hard time starting at the beginning of the year" was just a lip service one liner.

 

MVS, Hollins, Claypool, and Shorter battling over 1 starting spot on the Outside makes me feel a LOT better than starting two from that pool to start the year.

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Neo said:

Was thinking just that.

I have put an asterisk next to your name to look for when I wade through 45,386 opinions on college talent.

Honestly I respect a lot of people on this board... Bills fans know football more than most fan bases 

 

Its like sec level knowledge 

 

And that's why I do like posting here... But I generally don't go out of my way to spam this board with scouting reports pre draft 

 

I'm more than happy to make a full report for people if they ask... But I'm here for the same we all are... because we all love the Buffalo Bills

 

But yeah I see the quarterbacks come up from a young age... That's why I'm so high on Caleb Williams 

 

Because I saw him in high School and Oklahoma live ... I was sold at 18-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HerdMentality]

Lezgo!!

[GASabresIUFan]

We started Kincaid and Torrence last year.  I never even considered the possibility that Coleman wouldn't start unless he gets injured (G-d forbid).  

 

The starting WRs next season are Coleman, Shakir and Samuel. Everyone else is battling for WR4, WR5 and maybe a WR6.  Hollins is making the team as a special teams ace and part time receiver.  After that everyone else is just battling for a job.  My money is on Claypool.  MVS barely catches 50% of his targets.  What do we need that for?  Hamler is small and fast but injury prone.  Shorter is tall but slow.  That leaves Claypool who is big and fast.  If he has a good pre-season, he'll win the job. 

[Neo]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Honestly I respect a lot of people on this board... Bills fans know football more than most fan bases 

 

Its like sec level knowledge 

 

And that's why I do like posting here... But I generally don't go out of my way to spam this board with scouting reports pre draft 

 

I'm more than happy to make a full report for people if they ask... But I'm here for the same we all are... because we all love the Buffalo Bills

 

But yeah I see the quarterbacks come up from a young age... That's why I'm so high on Caleb Williams 

 

Because I saw him in high School and Oklahoma live ... I was sold at 18-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I work in the SEC footprint.   Almost all of my colleagues are SEC grads.   It’s unreal.

[BigAl2526]

Coleman Has real talent, but he's also pretty raw for a first round draft pick.  I don't doubt that he is going to start for the Bills, but I also think that Brady will go easy on him as far as his route tree is concerned  at the start of his career.  He'll gradually work in to the full route tree and intricacies of the Bills' offense.  I don't think he's going to be a rookie of the year candidate, but there's no reason to think he can't have 50-70 catches and 700 or 800 yards as a rookie.  Year two, if he's healthy, he passes 1,000 yards.  

[BigAl2526]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Well I think the Bills FO believes K Coleman has the higher ceiling because it looks like McConkey has the higher floor and they took Coleman over him.

I think Buffalo selected Coleman over McConkey because Coleman fits better into the role they wanted to fill.   McConkey is obviously more polished.  I think the Bills accept that Coleman is less polished and have decided that long term fit was more important than the current level of polish.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Well I scout high school kids

 

And in the off-season I basically mercenary scouting reports for draft eligible players but I was a regional scout years ago 

 

So I have a lot of friends who are regional scouts and they need eyes on the road which I am... And I go to college spring games.. about 3-4 a year.. and a good handful of college games (10+)

 

I am not scouting college kids full-time anymore I do high school kids but do college on the side 

 

 

 

Let me ask you something about the mechanics of the scouting process.

 

Let's say an NFL scout sees a kid that he likes.  He'll make his evaluation, write up a report, and submit it.  Does he then call the GM or Director of College Scouting to advocate for the kid?  Do the various scouts compare notes in meetings?  How do the area/regional scouts influence the draft board & process besides filling out scouting reports?  

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Let me ask you something about the mechanics of the scouting process.

 

Let's say an NFL scout sees a kid that he likes.  He'll make his evaluation, write up a report, and submit it.  Does he then call the GM or Director of College Scouting to advocate for the kid?  Do the various scouts compare notes in meetings?  How do the area/regional scouts influence the draft board & process besides filling out scouting reports?  

Good question ... And there certainly is a whole process 

 

One scout cannot possibly watch everybody... It's not possible... They do rely on a network ... 

 

Say the Bills Blesto scout identifies a talent at junior day... The Blesto is looking at non draft players... So at pro days he's looking at the RS SO/ JR class or non draft enrollees ... Rising seniors... All the blesto scouts grade them all and compile a report... That report is gold to the NFL teams

 

star him... A guy to watch... Bills Blesto has a rising SR to watch... Tells the regional or area scout ... He'll go to the spring game and go to a few games... Compile his report 

 

Crosscheck his report with some other scouts in the area who have seen the player to see if they see the same stuff ... Scouts compare notes all the time 

 

And if he's a guy you really want to Target... Red star him... That means plays above projected draft slot... When all the regional and head scouts get together... You pound the table hard for your red star players 

 

Those are guys you go to war for in the meetings... And you make sure the national scout or director of scouting gets on a plane to watch him because you sold him 

 

Say you are a Mid-Atlantic scout ... From Rutgers to North Carolina basically.... But you all watch a lot of football... So you know there's this kid at TCU that you think could bolster the line... But you're not sure the southwestern scout has got to TCU yet

 

When you get around the other scouts... You tap the southwestern scout on the shoulder... And say hey! Have you seen this kid play? Or TCU yet ..And if they say no... You say well you probably should check him out get back to me ... Because he looks like a top 60..

 

Every area scout will hit every single division 1 School in their area at least once... Probably twice during the season... Obviously Texas will get more looks than UTEP

 

The majority of the board is done by the area scouts who then compile all the data for a national scout who will break the board down more by scheme fit

 

The guys who get pounded for the most at the table... Get the GM or director of college scouting to go watch them 

 

But area scouts red star players that will get further noticed by the GM and director... They are grinding on the road and finding the gems like benford

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 22 by Buffalo716

[hondo in seattle]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Good question ... And there certainly is a whole process 

 

One scout cannot possibly watch everybody... It's not possible... They do rely on a network ... 

 

Say the Bills Blesto scout identifies a talent... The Blesto is looking at non draft players... So at games and pro days he's looking at the FR/So/JR class or non draft enrollees 

 

star him... A guy to watch... Blesto has a JR to watch... Tells the regional or area scout ... He'll go to the spring game and go to a few games... Compile his report 

 

Crosscheck his report with some other scouts in the area who have seen the player to see if they see the same stuff ... Scouts compare notes all the time 

 

And if he's a guy you really want to Target... Red star him... That means plays above projected draft slot... When all the regional and head scouts get together... You pound the table hard for your red star players 

 

Those are guys you go to war for in the meetings... And you make sure the head scout or director of scouting gets on a plane to watch him because you sold him 

 

Say you are a Mid-Atlantic scout ... From Rutgers to North Carolina basically.... But you all watch a lot of football... So you know there's this kid at TCU that you think could bolster the line

 

When you get around the other scouts... You tap the southwestern scout on the shoulder... And say hey! Have you seen this kid play? And if they say no... You say well you probably should check him out get back to me 

 

The majority of the board is done by the area scouts who then compile all the data for a national scout who will break the board down more by scheme fit

 

The guys who get pounded for the most at the table... Get the GM or director of college scouting to go watch them 

 

But area scouts red star players that will get further noticed by the GM and director 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the explanation.  Somewhere I read examples of actual NFL scouting reports, but I was vague on the mechanics of the process.   There are something like 900 college football programs in the US - counting all levels.  To boil thousands of players down to a manageable and accurate draft board seems like a daunting challenge.  

[YattaOkasan]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!

 

OK, so we start with the LSU game, which was a great game for him overall and from a statistical perspective.   It was also 20% of his season's production more or less in terms of TDs, yards, and catches.  

 

0:08 separation at release (poor throw)

Agree on the poor throw.  As to the route, it's a pretty standard route that just about every WR in the NFL can execute with a properly thrown pass.  

 

What I looked for while watching that video, are traits that will distinguish him in the NFL, not what may distinguish him at the collegiate level.  

 

0:16 Run after catch

Agree, and I'll add, a beautiful YAC on a beautifully thrown ball.  That's one of the few plays that I had as having been noteworthy.  

 

3:04 separation at release (poor throw)

I have this as a drop.  The ball was right between his hands against two DBs smaller that he is.  But here's the thing, all we've heard is about how great he is on "contested catches," well, that was one and it wasn't impressive.  One could excuse it, but that's not being impressive.  The opponent is Southern Miss which boasted the 128th (out of 133) ranked D.  The DBs were a red-shirt sophomore that has hardly played, and a red-shirt junior that has 1 INT in 23 games played.  Happy to discuss.  

 

4:38 run after catch

Agree, one of his best few plays.  Same defenders however, and a whole lot of green after the DB with hardly any experience whiffs on the tackle.  Great hurdle.  It's not going to be nearly that easy here.  

5:40 created separation at stem (drop)

We'll disagree a little here.  You say separation, but had he caught it, it would have been what, a 7, 8 yard gain, the DBs dropped back and only made slight contact a yard or two from where would have caught it, so not quite sure that "separation" applies here.  Otherwise, the DB on him was Andrew Mukuba, a third year Jr. that has 1 INT, 1 Sack, and 16 PDs in 35 games played.  

6:02 separation

again here, tough to call this separation.  It was botched coverage to start, same DB, and it was also a broken play as you can hear the announcer, uncovered he simply came back.  Good play, but nothing other than routine.  

6:15 heads up uncover

Pure botched coverage.  Look again.  Absolutely no one on him at any point during that play after Mickens completely whiffs while going into the backfield.  Otherwise, a very routine 7-yard TD pass.  Credit play-design on that one.  

 

7:04 turned safety around (poor throw)

Yeah, that's a non-play.  Good coverage by the DB, a S it appears to be.  

 

Again, we're looking for reasons to get excited though, not excuses as to why he didn't do more.  

7:40 game winner contested

A phenominal play.  Again, one of the few notable ones.  

9:20 one handed contested

Agreed, another phenominal catch.  I think we've gotten the three notable ones now.  

At 4:38, this one, and the one prior.  

10:53 separation

I have to question separation here.  It was clearly a juke of some sort where he lost the CB, Isaiah Johnson on Syracuse.  It's not a play that he's likely to make in the NFL.  Johnson went undrafted as a Sr. and NFL.com has him projected as a bottom of roster or practice squad type.  So to any extent that he did "separate," that's whom it was against.  NFL.com says this about Johnson in his draft profile;  a fundamental lack of coverage fluidity and deep speed will be hard to cover up as a pro.  In short, he's far from NFL caliber competition.  

12:30 run after catch

Again, Syracuse, and a classic bubble screen.  Up 27-3 in the 4th, this is far more a simply clinic on poor tackling than it is for Coleman on what, a 12-yard gain.  This isn't the type of play that's going to work well for him in the NFL given his lack of speed.  

12:40 cooks zone coverage

Not seeing that here against Duke.  Wrong time stamp perhaps?  

13:15 cooks zone coverage

Again, more blown coverage, the announcer points that out how Al Blades, the DB tasked with covering Coleman, does not cover him.  Good route, good catch, but nothing spectacular, a routine route & catch in the NFL every weekend.  BTW, Blades, that CB/DB, was 6 years in the NCAAs, managed a mere 4 INTs (none in the past three seasons) and 24 PDs in 56 NCAA games played.  He went undrafted and was picked up by the Jets as an Undrafted FA.  He doesn't even have a draft profile at NFL.com or PFF.  

13:45 contested catch

A good catch going down on a clothesline pass into heavy coverage by Travis.  

14:50 yards after catch

YAC are notable when they're in traffic.  After Carson whiffs on Coleman at the LoS however, it's pretty much all but green to the EZ.  Any JAG WR in the NFL makes that play after the catch.  

15:17 one handed contested TD

That was a very good catch.  I'm not sure what they mean by contested, but not sure that's it.  Either way, for the few of those, there are three or four in the video where he doesn't catch it.  

18:10 And the foul TD

A little bit of a pushoff on his end as well.  Very good catch big WR v. a freshman CB.  That seems like a pretty standard catch though, nothing that's going to separate him in the NFL.  It depends a lot more on the QB than the WR.  

18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw)

Not sure how you see any separation at release, it's not in the video.  It appears that he shakes him at the last minute, but having been a non-catch on an overthrow, not sure how this says much one way or the other.  

21:08 separation and run after catch

I'm not sure how you define separation.  Separation is being able to separate from a dedicated defender.  He did not do that on this play or some of the others you cite separation on.  He found (finds) a soft spot in a zone.  He makes the catch 9 yards from the LoS after hooking back, then turns and runs.  Not one defender is in the area to make a play, again, in a what's obviously a zone.  They close the gap and make the tackle.  But separation it is not.  

 

Happy to discuss further if you like.   

 

But I count (I think) four catches of any gravity/magnitude here and anything that should be considered anything but routine.  That's it.  The rest of the video is largely unimpressive stuff, which includes many similar situations in which he fails to deliver.  

 

 

You’re gonna need to show me safeties and off coverage players getting turned around that much for me to believe that is just routine. I was pretty surprised how much trouble he created in that regard.  You need to pause when the throw is being made more too. Look at 7:11 and tell me that’s not very open and then where does the ball land (comically in the wrong spot). That is not good coverage by S. Same thing at 0:14 (there is all 22 of this play if you really need to see how open he is).  18:56 he’s being held gets few yards of separation that he has to give up cause the ball was thrown to the inside for some reason (wrong shoulder).  Also think you gotta stop watching broadcast angle only cause it seems to be limiting how you evaluate. 
 

Additionally what you call ordinary catches are him creating separation at the catch point. He hasn’t learned all the nuances of route running but making space to make a play on the ball translates from bball and he’s very good at it.  So you say push off (lol penalty was on the defender) or routine when he just made it look easy cause he has good ability to get separation at the catch point.   
 

If I get time, I can do stills but I came away from your exercise feeling better than I did going into it. I saw many out of the ordinary plays. 

[Buffalo716]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for the explanation.  Somewhere I read examples of actual NFL scouting reports, but I was vague on the mechanics of the process.   There are something like 900 college football programs in the US - counting all levels.  To boil thousands of players down to a manageable and accurate draft board seems like a daunting challenge.  

That's what blesto does ...

 

It's basically the lowest level professional scout... You're doing the dirty work... Compiling heights weights, pro Day 40 times... Statistics and a profile 

 

So that by the time they are draft eligible... The area scouts can already have thousands of guys crossed off the board that do not fit XYZ

 

Whoever the regional scout was that can find Christian benford at Villanova... Should be a head scout because that takes serious deep dives... When he probably went to 15 FBS schools and only want to Villanova because he really was sure about how good he was 

 

But going to Villanova to watch someone play when you could go to Penn State is a tough call to make

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for the explanation.  Somewhere I read examples of actual NFL scouting reports, but I was vague on the mechanics of the process.   There are something like 900 college football programs in the US - counting all levels.  To boil thousands of players down to a manageable and accurate draft board seems like a daunting challenge.  

Close to 300 FBS and FCS schools 

 

It's super daunting... But it's not perfect which is why good football players go undrafted every year 

 

The single biggest thing to scouting kids... It's getting a feel for their character... These guys are all tremendous athletes at the division one level 

 

What separates the average from the Great... Is a mindset, work ethic and the ability to overcome obstacles 

 

And you're trying to find out their character from coaches etc as much as their talent

Edited May 22 by Buffalo716

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Payton Thorne

Jordan Travis (2024 5th Round Pick)

Tate Rodemaker

 

vs.

 

CJ Stroud (2023 1st Round, 2nd Pick)

Anthony Richardson (2023 1st, 4th Pick)

Jayden Daniels (2024 1st Round, 2nd Pick)

Michael Penix Jr. (2024 1st Round, 8th Pick)

Quinn Ewers (Projected 2025 1st Round Pick)

 

🤷‍♂️

Richardson was a terrible passer in college—awful.   In the NFL he can’t stay on the field in his first season. 
 

Evers will be an equally bad 1st round pick. Hes an overhyped (for YEARS) mediocrity's who will lose his job to Manning this year and enter the portal 

Edited May 22 by Mr. WEO

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Richardson was a terrible passer in college—awful.   In the NFL he can’t stay on the field in his first season. 
 

Evers will be an equally bad 1st round pick. Hes an overhyped (for YEARS) mediocrity's who will lose his job to Manning this year and enter the portal 

Ewers isn't losing his job to arch lol

 

He's gonna ball this season

Edited May 22 by Buffalo716

[Rampant Buffalo]

7 hours ago, Neo said:

Not sure I was doing that.  There of hundreds of goods to greats without college domination.  That, I believe, was the post I replied to.

 

 

 

Okay fair enough. That said . . . Michael Jordan was drafted 3rd overall. While I know next to nothing about the NBA, I'm guessing he must have shown something at the college level, to have been taken with such an early pick.

 

If I think of guys who were better as professionals than they'd been in college, one of the first names which comes to mind is Kurt Warner. No one drafted him. He tried out for the Green Bay Packers, but didn't make the final roster cut. Then he got a job stocking shelves for a grocery store. After he'd worked that job a bit, the St. Louis Rams called, and the rest is history.