Athletic article - comments from NFL people on AFC draft classes

[JohnNord]

On 5/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, dave mcbride said:

Some good stuff here: https://theathletic.com/5467312/2024/05/03/nfl-draft-afc-best-worst-classes-insider-reaction/, One takeaway from these comments: the consensus seems to be that next year's draft will be significantly deeper than this one's and that trading for 2025 picks is a smart move.

 

Bills: 

“It looks like they didn’t want a little guy in cold weather — ‘We’re a tough run team now,'” another exec said. “The risk is that Coleman is going to be covered. Those guys are making contested catches, and that is hard to do over and over again unless you are DeAndre Hopkins.”

The selection of inside runner Ray Davis in the fourth round could further signal a shift toward being more of a power team.

“There is now a big difference in the speed around Patrick Mahomes compared to the speed around Josh Allen,” another exec said. “Buffalo is saying, ‘Josh, it is up to you to raise the level of the skill around you,’ which is great, but we’ll see if he is able to do that.”

 

Broncos:

[Re: the Nix pick] “I’m betting on it (succeeding) heavily,” an exec said. “Bo has experience, he has enough arm talent and I think he is going to do what he is coached to do. Sean Payton’s system is optimal for him. Bo is not going to go off-script as much as Russ was going to do. Look, I don’t want him to be successful, but I think he is going to be legit there.”

“I’m not a Bo Nix fan, but if anybody can get something out of him, Sean could,” another exec said, voicing concerns about Nix’s accuracy and reaction to the pass rush. “He’ll program that kid to do exactly what he wants every week. It won’t be enough the first year, but Sean will buy a third year to develop the kid and see if he can get him through.”

 

Texans:

Unrelated to the Texans, and speaking in general terms, an exec from a team picking inside the top 20 made a comment we regularly hear this time of year.

“Call it pick 20 to pick 40, shake them up and throw them out, they are all similar players,” he said.

Whether or not that is true, execs agreed the 2025 draft should be deeper than the current one, so that acquiring picks next year carried additional value.

 

Chiefs:

“They won the Super Bowl, but they should be blowing dudes out like they used to,” an exec said. “Xavier Worthy will make it easier to do that with the tight end (Travis Kelce) getting older.”

“Kansas City is going to light people up with that kid,” an exec said of Worthy. “He’s a little, fast guy, and you think he’s a track guy, but he’s tough, finishes runs, fast, disciplined. He has a nice all-around game.”

 

Raiders:

“Bowers is not like Dalton Kincaid where you can create separation in the normal flow of the offense,” an exec said. “You have to move him. He would be ideal in San Francisco or Miami. Whereas Kincaid is special at the top of the route, Bowers is one-cut, catch it, break three tackles and he’s gone. Hopefully, they have a good plan for him because he can do some really unique things with the ball.”

 

Dolphins:

The Dolphins reached for their credit card. They traded their 2025 third to Philadelphia for a fourth this year, despite general league thinking that NIL implementation at the college level thinned the current crop after the first couple of rounds. As one exec put it, “If you traded this year’s fourth for next year’s third, that’s a huge win because of the nature of the class.”

 

Jets:

“They are in win-now mode, which is why I thought they would go Bowers all the way or any player that would help them win this year,” an exec said. “Instead, they drafted a tackle who might not play for them this year, and might not be well-suited to kick inside and play guard. It certainly is good long-term process, but where they are as an organization, they gotta win this year.”

The Mahomes/KC comparison is spot on.  It was clear last season that both Buffalo and KC needed better weapons at WR.  The Divisional playoff loss perfectly demonstrated the lack of talent at the position.  

 

But winning a SB, KC still signed Brown and drafted Worthy… clearly a net positive.

 

Whereas Buffalo lost its two starting WR’s signed Samuel and drafted Keon.  At best, the most optimistic fan will call this push.  In reality, it’s more of a net negative.  
 

That’s why I didn’t care for what Beane did at WR this offseason.  Seems like the only way this works is if Josh himself elevates his supporting cast even more and why I think Buffalo is looking to 2025.  

[Mikey152]

Something you all seem to be ignoring in this massive complain fest is....

 

The Bills have been pretty freaking good for most of the time Josh, McD and BB have been here. Like, outside of his rookie season, they have been in the playoffs every year and most seasons they are picking in the late 20's with one of the best records in the league.

 

By that point in the early rounds, you are kind of stuck with what other teams didn't take. Reaching for a WR at that point is silly.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Good points and I agree that we haven’t invested enough into the WR unit.  They put their bag on Diggs to be that dude and to carry some ARs that weren’t worry.  Their belief in Gabe really backfired on them.  
 

I didn’t like drafting a RB in rd 4 either, but I love the player they drafted and I think he’ll help us as a rookie .  You don’t always get that out of 4th rd picks.  Will get to see Brady’s true offense as opposed to him calling Dorsey’s playbook.  Seems like he has the vision.  Use the short to open up the deep.  I have no problem with it…. Yet
 

Time to get on board or find a new ship!  Doesn’t seem like these guys are going anywhere while Pegula is the owner.  Him leaving is your hope.  

 

I'm going to watch. But I'm also not going to bend over backward to defend BB as doing a great job. He has crossed the Rubicon for me.

 

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Run game lost the players that complimented Cook.  And we STILL had to rely on Josh to run too much.  It was not "good enough" going into the draft as it was just Cook and everyone and their mom (except for you apparently) knew we were drafting a RB most likely given how much RB interest they showed and signing no one to get the tougher yards Cook isn't suited for.  

 

 

Everything in this sentence is wrong.  Day 2 picks are great places for RB's to come off the board (or later).  And no this regime did not take a day 2 RB, he was a Ray Davis was a day 3 pick, so you are wrong about that too.

 

 

LMAO...such BS.  Bills TRADED their first for Diggs, a first they would have used on a WR.  Bills used a first on an elite TE prospect whose primary role is WR.  Bills just used a day 2 pick this year on a WR.  So in 3 of the past 5 drafts the Bills have invested a 2 first round picks and a 2nd round pick on a receiving weapon for Josh.  Not to mention, they also added Shakir in the 5th two years ago too which despite your pointless rant of what pick was used has so far turned into a very promising weapon for Josh.  

 

So yeah...just about everything in your rant is wrong both factually and analytically.  

Who did we lose?  Latty Murray? The 60th rusher in the league with 79 carries?  We needed to spend a fourth on an RB for that? Ookay.

 

Day 2 picks are bad investments for RB's. Singletary, Moss, and Cook were all day 2 picks. You are right that Davis was a fourth.

 

"So in 3 of the past 5 drafts the Bills have invested a 2 first round picks and a 2nd round pick on a receiving weapon for Josh."

 

If you think the Bills are investing enough in WR, there's really not much else to say lol. It speaks VOLUMES that you have to play pretend that Kincaid is a WR.

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I wasn't comparing us to the Chiefs...just pointing out that we aren't "slow" either like most people think.  I listed Kincaid as a mismatch, because that is what he is.  Is he faster than a WR...no, but he is fast for a TE, and more importantly game speed fast with his fluid movement and precise routes to go with his fast TE speed.  And Cook as explosive because he is just that, he is a big play threat as a runner and receiver.  He isn't as "fast" as Pacheco, but he is fast and has great burst and acceleration.

 

What is the only sure fire way to keep Mahomes from scoring?  Keep him off the field.  This obsession to score in a play or two by some (not saying you) doesn't even make sense.  There is only 1 way we are going to beat the Chiefs and that is converting TD's when on their side of the field.  And where do you do that the most?  The redzone.  What did we just go out an and add the last 2 drafts?  Guys to elevate our play in the redzone, including running the ball better outside of Josh Allen, better trench play, etc.  

 

I personally care a LOT more about the many many many more redzone trips and converting those than I do the 1 to 3 potential 60+ yard TD passes over an entire season that are even less likely in the open air bad weather stadiums we play late in the year at home and the postseason.  

All of that is fine, and I generally agree with it.

My quote was specifically about the speed around Josh Allen compared to that around Mahomes, and it remains true that the latter has more than the former. As I said, that doesn't necessarily mean the Chiefs offense will be better, it just means that it is unequivocally faster.

The Bills are not faster than your average NFL offense. They have pretty average team speed on offense. And that's all I was talking about -- the Bills' speed on offense. It's average. 

[JohnNord]

On 5/5/2024 at 11:59 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

Gotta love, “Josh it’s up to you to raise the level of skill around you.” That’s fireable imo. I’ve been a huge Beane supporter since he got here. I’ve been lukewarm on McDermott.
 

Phillosophically, I differ from them greatly on that. If Josh Allen were my QB, I would invest every prime asset I could in surrounding him with elite talent. You’re going to win BECAUSE of him. Their philosophy is that it doesn’t matter who’s around him because we have him. That hasn’t worked to date.
 

Please don’t talk about the assets that they invested in Diggs, etc.. I don’t want to have to pull the data again of the assets allocated to the DL over WR. It’s disgusting. Depending on how this year goes, I would be okay pulling the plug on this regime. Lots of people could win 11 games and 1 playoff game with Josh Allen. I’m ready to try something different. That’s not good enough with that unicorn playing QB. You’ve failed him. 

100% The plan to “improve” the WR room has been underwhelming.  So much talk about speed at WR at the end of the season press conference - yet all they did was sign Samuel who kind of duplicates the skillset of Shakir in the slot.  
 

When Diggs was traded, I could have sworn Beane had a plan.  It turns out he really only envisioned a second round draft pick.  Keon might turn out to be a great WR but it’s tough to envision him having the season he’ll need for the team to be a contender.  

 

That’s why I’m in the group who believe the team is prepared to take a step back this season to take two steps forward in 2025. 

[eball]

On 5/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, dave mcbride said:

There is now a big difference in the speed around Patrick Mahomes compared to the speed around Josh Allen

 

Really?

[oldmanfan]

27 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I mean I can go thru it with you if you like.  It's not really subject to o opinion or interpretation. 

 

Anyway, I see that this is getting personal for you so let's end this exchange.

 

If at a later date you'd like to go thru the video facts, let me know.  I'm happy to spend the time.  No one ever is however. 

 

 

Just discussing.  What do you think the primary benefit is of a strong arm?  If it’s throwing long passes then data has been shared on TBD showing that only about 1% of passes travel 40 yards or more in the air.  I suspect that’s because it it a low percentage chance of success.  To me Josh’s arm strength is shown on the intermediate routes when he can fit the ball into smaller areas.  Or on out routes.

 

I’d be interested in your video evidence.  If by that you mean Josh isn’t seeing or throwing to open guys downfield that’s a different issue that play construction.

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I'm going to watch. But I'm also not going to bend over backward to defend BB as doing a great job. He has crossed the Rubicon for me.

 

Who did we lose?  Latty Murray? The 60th rusher in the league with 79 carries?  We needed to spend a fourth on an RB for that? Ookay.

 

Day 2 picks are bad investments for RB's. Singletary, Moss, and Cook were all day 2 picks. You are right that Davis was a fourth.

 

"So in 3 of the past 5 drafts the Bills have invested a 2 first round picks and a 2nd round pick on a receiving weapon for Josh."

 

If you think the Bills are investing enough in WR, there's really not much else to say lol. It speaks VOLUMES that you have to play pretend that Kincaid is a WR.

Do the Chiefs play pretend Kelce is a WR?

[DrMaxPower]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

The Mahomes/KC comparison is spot on.  It was clear last season that both Buffalo and KC needed better weapons at WR.  The Divisional playoff loss perfectly demonstrated the lack of talent at the position.  

 

But winning a SB, KC still signed Brown and drafted Worthy… clearly a net positive.

 

Whereas Buffalo lost its two starting WR’s signed Samuel and drafted Keon.  At best, the most optimistic fan will call this push.  In reality, it’s more of a net negative.  
 

That’s why I didn’t care for what Beane did at WR this offseason.  Seems like the only way this works is if Josh himself elevates his supporting cast even more and why I think Buffalo is looking to 2025.  

 

It's a net negative if Diggs was who he was supposed to be. Instead he was a petulant baby that quit mid season.

 

People keep talking about the WR position with the memory of Diggs, not the guy who was actually on the field the last 10 games.

 

The Diggs/Davis we got down the stretch will not be hard to replicate, if not surpass.

 

Edited May 6 by DrMaxPower

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Just discussing.  What do you think the primary benefit is of a strong arm?  If it’s throwing long passes then data has been shared on TBD showing that only about 1% of passes travel 40 yards or more in the air.  I suspect that’s because it it a low percentage chance of success.  To me Josh’s arm strength is shown on the intermediate routes when he can fit the ball into smaller areas.  Or on out routes.

 

I’d be interested in your video evidence.  If by that you mean Josh isn’t seeing or throwing to open guys downfield that’s a different issue that play construction.

Do the Chiefs play pretend Kelce is a WR?

No, but the Chiefs have spent:

 

1st

2nd

3rd

2nd

 

on WR since 2022.

 

The Bills have spent:

 

2nd

5th

5th

 

lol.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, FireChans said:

No, but the Chiefs have spent:

 

1st

2nd

3rd

2nd

 

on WR since 2022.

 

The Bills have spent:

 

2nd

5th

5th

 

lol.

And how did some of their second round picks do vs. , say, Shakir?  You are obsessed with what round a guy is picked.  I look for talent.  

[HomeskillitMoorman]

On 5/4/2024 at 8:39 PM, Goin Breakdown said:

It's always been up to Josh to raise the level of play from other players (not named Diggs)

 

He has most of the time in the playoffs. 

 

It's our Head Coach's side of the ball and decision-making that lets us down the high majority of the time when it matters most. 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And how did some of their second round picks do vs. , say, Shakir?  You are obsessed with what round a guy is picked.  I look for talent.  

Rashee Rice did a lot better.

 

He had over 900 yards and 7 TD's.  Another 262 and another TD in the playoffs.

 

~1200 yards and  8 TD's in a season?

 

That's better than Shakir's whole career combined.

[DrMaxPower]

I like the comments on Kincaid VS Bowers.

 

Everyone has been pumping up Bowers as the uber-prospect for 2 years but at least some people see Kincaid as the more polished, better receiver.

 

Edited May 6 by DrMaxPower

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Rashee Rice did a lot better.

 

He had over 900 yards and 7 TD's.  Another 262 and another TD in the playoffs.

 

~1200 yards and  8 TD's in a season?

 

That's better than Shakir's whole career combined.

One guy out of several picks that have shown nothing.  And Shakir was the go to guy under Brady.

 

I guess you never would have drafted Andre.  Or Diggs.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

One guy out of several picks that have shown nothing.  And Shakir was the go to guy under Brady.

 

I guess you never would have drafted Andre.  Or Diggs.

We can compare all the picks if you'd like (not including playoffs because that's too much math).

 

Bills WR production of their two fifth rounders:

 

49 catches 772 yards 3 TD's

 

Chiefs WR production of their 2 seconds and third:

 

163 catches 1772 yards 11 TD's

 

Yeah, looks like a landslide.

[Putin]

On 5/3/2024 at 9:27 AM, Logic said:

Thanks.

I always love the "comments from league execs and coaches" articles. They're awesome.

Unfortunately, the comments about Coleman and Worthy match my own feelings. And the statement "there is now a big difference in the amount of speed around Mahomes and the amount of speed around Josh Allen". Yep. Not great, Bob. 

speed at WR seems to be a huge factor here why aren’t the Dolphins in the conversation since they’ve got two of the fastest WR’s in the NFL ? 

[oldmanfan]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We can compare all the picks if you'd like (not including playoffs because that's too much math).

 

Bills WR production of their two fifth rounders:

 

49 catches 772 yards 3 TD's

 

Chiefs WR production of their 2 seconds and third:

 

163 catches 1772 yards 11 TD's

 

Yeah, looks like a landslide.

So now we’ll compare 3 guys against 2.  That math makes real sense.

 

You never answered if you would have drafted Reed or Diggs.

Edited May 6 by oldmanfan

[Kirby Jackson]

9 hours ago, Billl said:

Yeah, the one game Brown played in NE plus the 7 (6.5) he played in Tampa before quitting in the middle of a game really took Brady’s career to the next level.  

Well, they did play together. He was added late to the list. It does illustrate that weapons are Brady was always a priority.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So now we’ll compare 3 guys against 2.  That math makes real sense.

 

You never answered if you would have drafted Reed or Diggs.

You can draft WR's in the second round AND the fifth round. It's a pretty awesome feature of the draft.

 

Go ahead and take out Skyy Moore lol, the math still doesn't favor us.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can draft WR's in the second round AND the fifth round. It's a pretty awesome feature of the draft.

 

Go ahead and take out Skyy Moore lol, the math still doesn't favor us.

Would you have drafted Reed or Diggs?