Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Dr. Who]

27 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

imagine if we add a moss. 

Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.?

No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade. 

[SirAndrew]

I can’t believe the amount of people who believe a mediocre receiving corps is alright. I’ll be extremely disappointed if we don’t land a big time receiver in this draft. It’s a disservice not to find that for Allen. Manning had elite wideouts during his career, and most other greats as well. Brady is the freak exception, but we’re also talking about a dude who was elite into his 40’s. Nothing about Tom Brady will ever be the norm.
 

I’m also not about to compare anything to Matt Ryan either. Ryan had a few good seasons, but he’s a far cry from Josh Allen. Mahomes also has an elite receiver, and his name is Travis Kelce, Kelce is ELITE. The guy is absolutely unstoppable, and a hall of fame player. Mahomes has “no elite receiver” is a ridiculous narrative with Kelce. Kincaid is very good, but he’ll never be close to Kelce imo. We need more because we don’t have Kelce on this roster. A failure to draft a first round wideout would result in an ugly 2024 season. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Draconator said:

 

That is awesome!

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

I can’t believe the amount of people who believe a mediocre receiving corps is alright. I’ll be extremely disappointed if we don’t land a big time receiver in this draft. It’s a disservice not to find that for Allen. Manning had elite wideouts during his career, and most other greats as well. Brady is the freak exception, but we’re also talking about a dude who was elite into his 40’s. Nothing about Tom Brady will ever be the norm.
 

I’m also not about to compare anything to Matt Ryan either. Ryan had a few good seasons, but he’s a far cry from Josh Allen. Mahomes also has an elite receiver, and his name is Travis Kelce, Kelce is ELITE. The guy is absolutely unstoppable, and a hall of fame player. Mahomes has “no elite receiver” is a ridiculous narrative with Kelce. Kincaid is very good, but he’ll never be close to Kelce imo. We need more because we don’t have Kelce on this roster. A failure to draft a first round wideout would result in an ugly 2024 season. 

I agree with all of this, except I think Kincaid can be really good. I don't know how close to Kelce, but I'm not ready to say he can't be elite. You can't count on that happening, however, and he may plateau at a lower level of achievement. Doesn't ultimately affect the overall truth that they still need to give Josh Allen much better weapons. Shakir and Samuel are solid pieces, but they are not A-level weapons.

 

And as I've tried to point out to the D crowd -- if you have a truly potent offense, not just statistically, but one that can terrorize the opposition, you make the other teams' offense reactive, feeling that they have to match you after every drive or risk falling into the abyss. And most teams won't have the fire power to keep up. That is a big edge to your own D, because panic on the other side causes mistakes and also makes the playbook narrow to more predictable limits.

 

If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise? 

[NoSaint]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Some of these folks think that's overkill. Just get someone who runs the right routes and catches the ball. What about the D, etc.?

No matter how the draft plays out, Beane has to upgrade the WR room. I'd like to try exceptional talent at WR to add to Kincaid and Cook as weapons. Then role players like Samuel and Shakir slot into the place where you are not asking too much of them, and they are able to flourish with the correct level of expectation. Outside the top 3, I think you probably have to bring in two WRs, either through the draft or a combination of draft and trade. 

I think same page here And have really been talking myself into it post diggs.

 

tight ends normally have a learning curve so we may see a jump there. 
 

I like Samuel over Davis 

 

if we can improve diggs spot - it could be a hell of a step forward for this group. And I’m not opposed to our weapons being overkill

 

back up those safeties and cook can feast.
 

It’ll take pressure off Josh (imagine him getting to the playoffs much healthier)

 

It lets the defense turn one dimensional and takes pressure off.  

 

that patriots team was an absolute scoring machine. 

[90sBills]

34 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you have an ordinary QB, you can't try this strategy, but we don't have an ordinary QB. We have one of the most athletically gifted QBs to ever play the game. Why construct a roster that ignores that rare gift to your franchise? 

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

Brady is the freak exception

 

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it.

 

Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.

[Cray51]

4 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

Outside of Kincaid and Shakir, no one on team is a good sure handed receiver.

 

[DJB]

35 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Outside of Kincaid and Shakir, no one on team is a good sure handed receiver.

 

Considering those two guys were picked up in the last two drafts it’s clear it’s part of the draft philosophy when it comes to pass catchers . 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract.

 

Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching. 

 

But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder.

 

Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach. 

Edited April 13 by Dr. Who

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it.

 

Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.

I agree with this, you’ve made some fine points. Brady looked washed at the end of his Pats tenure when Belichick left the cupboards empty. He was a different QB with a very skilled receiving corps in Tampa. I don’t think teams should build themselves based on others. I’m fully on board with giving Josh an outside receiver in the first round, and quite frankly don’t care how other teams are built.
 

Allen isn’t Brady or Mahomes, every player is different, and I think he’d benefit greatly from a security blanket on the outside. Allen needs a guy he can heave the ball to downfield. That’s part of who he is, and you need a roster that compliments it, rather than changing the offense itself. You’re absolutely correct about defense, and that’s why we can’t copy KC. We have more in common with Manning’s Colts teams. It makes sense to continue building an unstoppable offense that might steal a Super Bowl win one year. 

[SirAndrew]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Isn’t the point of having an elite gifted qb is having him be a force multiplier for your receivers? I think that’s what most is making the argument for here. Similar to Mahomes and KC. Their highest paid receiver was MVS at $11M. When you’re paying your qb high end $ it’s hard to do that with receivers as well without neglecting the rest of your team.

 

I see a couple of arguments of Kelce being their elite guy. That’s true but not this last year. He was very ordinary. The difference is KC’s players step up in the crucial playoffs moments and Bills players don’t.

True, you can’t really afford much around a highly paid QB, but that’s all the more incentive to draft a receiver with an affordable rookie contract. This is the time you take a big swing on receiver. You’ll get a decent number of years before that contract expires. If we don’t have a Super Bowl when that guy’s contract expires, Josh will be in his thirties, and the likelihood of that ever happening will be trending close to zero. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Perhaps my expression was insufficiently clear. I understand that an elite QB is a force multiplier. One answer is that if that is so, why not multiply elite talent at WR and get the best possible return on that multiplication? And it is true that paying the francise QB means you have to be economical elsewhere. One of the ways you can do that is by drafting WR1 early and getting five cost-controlled years on a rookie contract.

 

Aside from injuries to our D, which were ultimately crippling, KC has a few elite talents. Kelce had a down year, but he was money in the playoffs. Mahomes, of course, and Jones on D. Add in superior coaching. 

 

But to return to my original point, obviously elite WRs can help elevate the game of an ordinary QB, though the QB isn't going to maximize their talent. What I intend is the strategy of creating an overpowering offense that can terrify opposing defenses. I don't think that happens without a special QB combined with elite WR talent, or at least, it becomes much harder.

 

Anyway, we are well into Josh Allen's prime. The rookie contract window has come and gone with a lot of post-season disappointment. I don't think Allen has been generally well-served by the roster construction in terms of the quality of surrounding weapons. I'd like to see a commitment to surrounding him with superlative weapons, rather than consistently asking him to elevate players who are "good enough." The latter can achieve decent statistical numbers, but it doesn't create the kind of offensive juggernaut that I believe is within reach. 

I thought Diggs was an elite weapon for Allen. Davis was serviceable and definitely in your ‘good enough’ description. Having 1 elite receiver was obviously not enough so I’m with you regarding accumulating more elite receiving talent. I’m hoping they’d do it through the draft rather than spending big money like they did with Diggs. Betting big in free agency is what got them in this current cap bind.

 

My hope is they hit on a couple of receivers this year along with Kincaid’s development. Then the following year we might get your vision of an offensive juggernaut that could make hay for a title. This upcoming season is pivotal for the next step forward imo. 

[Dr. Who]

24 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I thought Diggs was an elite weapon for Allen. Davis was serviceable and definitely in your ‘good enough’ description. Having 1 elite receiver was obviously not enough so I’m with you regarding accumulating more elite receiving talent. I’m hoping they’d do it through the draft rather than spending big money like they did with Diggs. Betting big in free agency is what got them in this current cap bind.

 

My hope is they hit on a couple of receivers this year along with Kincaid’s development. Then the following year we might get your vision of an offensive juggernaut that could make hay for a title. This upcoming season is pivotal for the next step forward imo. 

Yes, I agree.

 

Diggs was an elite weapon, though not so much last year. I also concur about cap management. I am not for trading for a high-priced veteran. Depending on what happens in the draft, I could see them bringing in a mid-level veteran to fill out the room.

 

Obviously, Beane traded the Justin Jefferson pick for Diggs. The next best receivers during Allen's tenure are arguably Brown for one year, and Cole Beasley. Davis had that explosive game against KC, and some decent games interspersed with lots of dropped balls, nagging injury, and tolerable WR2 play. It's not a great collection, though the Kincaid selection is a nice start at adding offensive weapons with higher ceilings.

 

It is a pivotal draft. Getting WR right could really set the team up well going forward. I don't want to think about the ramifications of getting it wrong. Let's just get it right. 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say you didn't bother to read most of my post. 

 

I understand. I pointed out areas where you were wrong. It's tough to read that sometimes. A lot wrong with this post I am now replying to also.

 

If you want to say we only have two glaring holes, I guess it depends on your definition of glaring. We have a number of holes. Neither of our starting safeties has ever consistently started at safety. That's a hole. We have a serious lack of pass rushers. That's a hole, and one that needs to be addressed in some way and pronto. Both of those needs are far more serious than RB. We also have weak and unproven spots at IOL and CB.

 

We had to let a ton of people go because of the cap and that created holes. Kid yourself if you want, but that's the way it is.

 

Certainly WR is one of our biggest holes. Very far from the only one.

 

As for a #1, plenty of teams win Super Bowls without them. Get a guy in the first two rounds.

 

Odunze, Nabers and MHJ are absolutely NOT worth using a strategy which has a success record of zero percent in NFL history in producing titles. The idea is dumb, unless one of them falls far enough to be gotten at a semi-reasonable price, in the late teens, maybe. Problem is the odds of that happening are close to zero.

 

Yes, Mahomes had Kelce. Kelce last year had less than a thousand yards last year and yet they won a title. There's every reason to think Kincaid will be in the thousand yard neighborhood this year. We don't need a #1 anymore than Mahomes does.

 

But picking a WR in the first two rounds makes a ton of sense.

 

Took me years to figure this out, but reading whole posts of yours is often pointless.

 

3rd-5th paragraphs I addressed already.

 

We disagree on glaring holes at positions other than WR.

 

The crux of your argument is that there are glaring holes equal to or bigger than WR. 

 

I disagree with that. I actually don't even think that there's an argument that WR doesn't stand alone as the biggest and most glaring need. 

 

No point in this discussion if you can't see that.

Edited April 14 by transplantbillsfan

[Nextmanup]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

An isolated piece of anecdotal information is hardly instructive in any calculated decision.

 

You gotta go with the percentages/odds/what happens most of the time.

 

The Bills just gave up a LOT to get Stefon Diggs and it was a big deal move at the time, but it worked out as well as you can imagine.

 

I am NOT a fan of moving up in general, I think it's the wrong way to do things...but without elite talent at WR, we are going nowhere.

 

 

[Nihilarian]

As I mentioned, the cost of trading up to one of those top 3 is cost-prohibitive. The cost would be going from 660, #28 to #4 1800.

 

In trading for Julio Jones the Atlanta Falcons never made it to the SB with Mike Smith as HC. The guy who drafted him. Then they did make one SB later on and the GM was canned. Using up all those draft resources to move up costs the team players at other positions. Hence after two decent seasons, Atlanta went 4-12, 6-10. 8-8. 

 

This team has a bunch of maybes on it at many positions, along with many needs for elite talent at Center, WR, Safety, DT, DE / pass rusher, ILB, and CB. 

 

How many "elite" players are on the current roster? The more you draft the better the chance of finding one of those guys. Lord knows it's tough enough drafting so late. But then, to give up so many current and future picks on a "maybe" is reckless. 

 

[KDIGGZ]

We need to trade for up for the headlines alone...

 

"E Tu, Beane? Rome Falls and Bills make coliseum sized trade to add WR gladiator to their empire"

[billieve420]

Would like to see how Shorter performs this year. Hoping he can contribute would be nice to have bigger WR with some size on the outside.

 

 

Edited April 14 by billieve420

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

An isolated piece of anecdotal information is hardly instructive in any calculated decision.

 

You gotta go with the percentages/odds/what happens most of the time.

 

The Bills just gave up a LOT to get Stefon Diggs and it was a big deal move at the time, but it worked out as well as you can imagine.

 

I am NOT a fan of moving up in general, I think it's the wrong way to do things...but without elite talent at WR, we are going nowhere.

Does an "elite" talent at WR fall on his face for the playoffs? Diggs went invisible against Cincy in that critical home playoff game in which he was yelling at Josh Allen. His stats were 10 targets, and 4 receptions for 35 yards. The most targeted offense player and he fell on his face. It has been like this for most playoff games he played in during his time in Buffalo. 

 

The last half of last season showed that the team will do just fine without Diggs as he was the most targeted during that time and did less.